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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    This whole post should be carved in granite outside all 30 stadiums. Fantastic takedown of the inanity of "unwritten" rules.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    The problem with your reference to other sports is that most other sports are timed, whereas baseball is not. Unless you think in blowouts hitters should simply refuse to swing, no matter the count, hitters will have to swing in order for the game to end. Why is swinging 3-0 and hitting a homer disrespectful, but waiting one more pitch, and swinging 3-1 and hitting a homer is fine? If we are honestly worried about a mad rash of disrespectful behavior breaking out should unwritten rules be done away with, wouldn't it make more sense to simply codify the offending behaviors, and instruct the umpires to eject players who engage in said behaviors?
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    I feel like we have about three more weeks before the FO, if they're smart, will go in to full-on rebuild mode. Commit completely to it now, and you might be able to shave a year or two off the duration. Starting June 1, assuming no improvement in play, here's what I'd like to see happen Kiriloff at first every day (assuming he can return--full health in 2022 should be the priority) Arraez at second every day Gordon at short every day Polanco at third every day Larnach in left every day Rooker in right every day The Twins should eat the salary on all of the following players in order to trade them--if no trade can be made, they should be DFA'd; Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz, Colome Buxton should also be traded as soon as he is healthy, or you get an offer you're happy with. Rogers, Duffey, and Robles should all be traded as soon as you get a decent offer.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Just saw this, and love it! One minor thing (as those who know me on this board can I attest--I MUST get crazily specific)--it would appear that ads can pop up over the red circle, as that happened to me just as I was about to take the maiden red circle voyage. A small thing to be sure, and if it's complex to fix, certainly not worth it, but as a minor fix, that would be great! Thanks Brock!
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    My one suggestion--pin the top banner so that it's always there on any page you're on. It made it very easy to navigate back to the homepage. What I've noticed is that without that, you have to scroll all the way back up to navigate to another page, which is mildly frustrating on pages with lost of comments. Otherwise, looks great!
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I believe the Twins have scored the bonus runner once, when Buxton went yard in Oakland. That was promptly rendered moot when Baldelli left Colome in for the bottom of the 10th, even though he had coughed up the lead in the 9th, and various Twins infielders forgot how to play defense.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    37% increase in pitches from the 28th to the 1st. 43% increase in pitches from the 1st to the 6th. So if he increases his pitches by 40% when he starts on the 11th, that's 82 pitches. From there, he could pitch on May 16 and only need a 25% increase to get to 100 pitches. 20 days to stretch a guy from 30 to 100 pitches seems pretty expeditious to me.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Does this include Buxton? If so--wow!
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Berrios pitched the second game of the season, and it was 6 no-hit innings. Donaldson has been worth .5 WAR in 17 games--That's 3 WAR in 102 games, which is worth $30M on the free agent market, and we paid $23M, so seems reasonable. He has an OPS over .800, a wRC+ of 127, and has accounted for 2.8 UZR in his 329 innings with the Twins. He is absolutely not the problem with this team.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    You're right, there were no good options. That includes Rogers, who due to pitching on Monday, was also not a good option. So maybe Alcala, or Thielbar, or Colome blows the lead just the same, but at least then Rogers is available tonight. As it is, we have now pitched Duffey and Rogers two days in a row, so our good options tonight are...Robles? This bodes ill for our chances in a close game tonight; those chances would be better if Rogers was available, but instead we used him in a situation in which it was predictable he would not be good. The upshot is that we traded tonight's potentially good Rogers appearance for last nights predictably bad Rogers appearance. Seems less than smart.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I agree in part with this. There's not much you can do when 7-8 guys all regress at the same time, and that is not all on the FO. That being said, for this bullpen to work Colome, Rogers, and Duffey all needed to hold off regression, while at least two out of Stashak/Alcala/Thielbar/Robles stepped up to become legitimate 7th/8th inning guys. That's a lot of wishcasting just to have a good-not-great bullpen, so I think the FO bears some responsibility for making a mostly-downside, little-upside plan for the pen.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    This is pretty much correct, but I would go further as well. If you're going to pull your starter in the 6th or earlier, you can't immediately go to one of your 3 best guys unless it's a must win game. Thielbar/Alcala/Colome et al have to be used in the 6th and 7th, and Rogers/Duffey/Robles can only be used in the 8th or 9th. If you're going to expect your bullpen to pitch 600+ innings in a year, then the price of that is giving 200 to 300 innings to average to bad relievers. The only way around that is to have 7 or 8 good guys, or to carry 2 long guys at all times.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Then we don't have J.A. Happ, and Dobnak and his 8.16 ERA are in the starting rotation. Does that really make us a better team?
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm not saying it isn't worth it to kick the tires on Greene, but a guy who struck out less than 7 per 9 last year, had an xFIP- of 107 (tied for 120th out of 173 relievers last year, not for nothing, but Sergio Romo in 2020 was at 110, ranking 129th), and a SIERA of 4.51 (tied for 131st; Romo was at 3.82, ranking 79th) isn't going to move the needle on this bullpen. After all, if we were told we could add 2020 Sergio Romo to this pen right now, would any of us be excited about that? Add in that Greene will probably need 2-4 weeks minimum to get ramped up to game shape, and I don't think Greene does anything for you that you can't get from someone in St Paul. What will actually make this bullpen work is to have either a bullpen alpha (to handle every 9th inning), allowing Rogers, Duffey, and Robles to handle the 7th and 8th. Failing that, we need 2-3 guys at the Rogers/Duffey/Robles level, and I'm not sure Greene counts as one of those.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    The most frustrating thing about Rogers is Rocco's insistence on using him on back to back days. We have 3+ years of data now that says Rogers is a diminished pitcher when pitching on zero days rest. 2018 Without rest--12.2 IP, 10 k/9, 6.4 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.55 ERA, 4.05 FIP With rest--55.2 IP, 10 k/9, 1.1 bb/9, .3 hr/9, 2.43 ERA, 1.75 FIP 2019 Without rest--15 IP, 12.6 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3 hr/9, 7.20 ERA, 6.03 FIP With rest--54 IP, 11.5 k/9, .7 bb/9, .5 hr/9, 1.33 ERA, 1.49 FIP 2020/2021 Without rest--5.1 IP, 8.4 k/9, 0 bb/9, 3.4 hr/9, 5.07 ERA, 6.10 FIP With Rest--26.1 IP, 10.9 k/9, 1.7 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.08 ERA, 2.23 FIP The trends are quite clear--with the exception of the 2020/2021 SSS, Rogers' walk rate explodes on no rest. Even in the 2020/2021 SSS, his HR rate explodes on no rest. This is supposed to be an analytical team that believes in the benefits of rest--it baffles me that Rogers can even be considered an option on no rest.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Jorge Alcala in his career against lefties; 15.2 k/9 (Amazing!) 6.75 bb/9 (Ugh) 2.34 WHIP (Ugh) 1.178 OPS against (Ugh) 8.14 FIP (Ugh)
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    For those keeping score, Eddie Rosario is costing the Indians $8M this year. He currently has a .603 OPS on a .267 OBP and .337 SLG, with a 68 wRC+. He makes hard contact less than a third of the time, and is still swinging at 42% of pitches outside of the zone, all while being a negative defensively. I think we made the right decision to go to Kiriloff/Arraez.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    I hope Nick has a great career, and makes us forget about the fact we could have drafted Trea Turner in his place.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    It should be noted that the stats Ted gave were prior to yesterday's game. As such, Sano is now up to .100/.308/.250, with a 23.1% walk rate and a 34.6% k rate (both career bests). When Sano's babip normalizes (its still at .176), he will be perfectly serviceable.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    We should definitely sit the guy with a .599 OPS despite a .176 babip in order to get more PA's for the guy with a .451 OPS despite a .444 babip.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    This is an old and tired stereotype of the Ryan era Twins that no longer holds water, and actually stopped holding water towards the end of the Ryan era anyways. See below for a list of current/former Twins, and the age at which they debuted. Sano--22 Polanco-22 (technically 20, but his first significant stint came when he was 22) Arraez--22 Rosario--23 Kepler--23 Buxton--21 Berrios--22 Players who do well in the minors get pushed to the majors quickly. There is no similarly long list of players who were tearing up AA/AAA at 21/22/23, and yet didn't make the majors until 25.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    This. This is the problem with Rocco, who I think is good, except for anything that happens at the ballpark on the day a game is played. He seems to lack a feel for the game, as well as the attribute of anticipation. As Aggies said, why not tell Robles to start warming as soon as the Twins make the third out in the bottom of the 7th, but do so leisurely? If Pineda cruises in the 8th, you can sit him down, and treat it like a side session. If Pineda gives up a hit, you go have a conference at the mound for a minute while Robles accelerates his warm up, and then bring him in after chatting about the weather until the ump forces you to make a move. As concerns Shoemaker, I think people's issue was that Shoemaker seemingly got a longer leash than Maeda and Berrios had earlier in the season, despite not pitching more than 80 innings since 2016. That's the kind of guy where once you're past the fourth, you act immediately at the first sign of trouble.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Miguel Sano first pitch strike percentage: 2019--56.5% 2020--59.5% 2021--68.8% Career--58.1% Willians Astudillo first pitch strike percentage: 2019--64.7% 2020--75.0% 2021--85.7% Career--68.3% Think that's because of Astudillo swinging at all the first pitches, turning balls into stikes? Miguel Sano percent of pitches in the zone 2019--39.1% 2020--38.1% 2021--35.3% Career--41.2% Willians Astudillo percent of pitches in the zone 2019--40.3% 2020--36.6% 2021--50.9% Career--40.6% So no, Astudillo is not getting way more balls to start his at bats.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Couldn't agree more. When curfews must be imposed, sports should not occur. If the statement from the Twins had referenced only public safety, no rational person would find this political.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    It's political because it clearly assumes a specific narrative. After all, the game would not have been cancelled had this incident not occurred, even though 2 other people also died in gunfire last night. Why does the death of this individual, mentioned by name in the press release, matter more than the death of those two other individuals, to the point of warranting postponement of regularly scheduled events? The answer is clearly because it's assumed that a white cop gunned down a black person for little/no reason whatsoever, a conclusion that (although possible) can't possibly be drawn right now. As such, the Twins organization is supporting a specific narrative that millions disagree with, and has largely metastasized along party lines--it is clear which side of the line the Twins have chosen to be on, as is their right as an organization. That said, it is political, and a non-political path could easily have been taken, for example if the release was something along the lines of the below; "The Minnesota Twins are aware of an incident between an office of the law and a citizen that ended in the citizen's death. We are further aware of reactions to this incident, as well as the ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin, that we believe have created an unsafe environment for our players, staff, and fans. We urge everyone to demonstrate respect for the justice system, and to allow a full investigation of the incident to be conducted before any conclusions are formed."
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