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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    This year is really starting to remind me of 2015--the team comes out and overachieves early on, leading to a surprise division lead. As the season goes on, the team takes on more water, falls back, and ultimately misses the playoffs.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, my bigger point was that quoting a team's record in games a player appears in is not a good indicator for how good that player is. The Yankees are better when Higashioka plays than the Twins are. If you can gauge a player's ability by their team's record in games they play, than clearly Higashioka is better than anyone currently on the Twins.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    No, what he's saying is that Toronto has been winning the games Berrios starts DESPITE Berrios, not BECAUSE of him. It's unfathomable to me that this is getting lost. A team's record in games a pitcher starts is a potentially meaningful metric for that pitcher, but also a potentially meaningless metric for that pitcher. Jose Berrios has been one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. Out of 59 qualified starters, he is 58th in WAR, 57th in ERA, 59th in xERA, 57th in FIP, 52nd in xFIP, 47th in k/9, 48th in SIERA, 58th in WPA, and 53rd in swinging strike rate. The fact the Jays have a good record in games Berrios starts is because the offense has showed up those games, not because Berrios has been good.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I honestly have no idea what you are saying here.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    We're looking at who will be the bedrock of the team should the Twins become a perennial WS contender for the next 4-6 years. For that purpose, the players don't have to have come up together, or currently have a lot of time playing together. To me, Buxton and Duran are the only obvious answers. I would accept arguments for Arraez, Kiriloff, Lewis, and Winder. Super long shots would include Ryan, SWR, Steer, Julien, Miranda, Wallner, and Rodriguez.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    But still a helpful one. If you say a team stranded 3 runners in an inning, one can easily deduce the bases were loaded. But it's much worse to score 0 if the bases were loaded with no one out, than with 2 out. In that case, saying 9 LOB tells much more of the story than saying 3 LOB.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    The Yankees are 28-16 (103 win pace) when Kyle Higashioka appears in the game. Should the Twins give up whatever it takes to get him?
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's the statline for 2 pitchers in 2022. Pitcher A--7.2 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 5.72 ERA, 6.23 xERA, 5.17 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, -0.1 WAR, 11.8% barrel rate, 8.5% swinging strike rate Pitcher B--6.8 k/9, 1.8 bb/9, 4.50 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 0.7 WAR, 9.6% barrel rate, 10.3% swinging strike rate Other than the k/9 (which is so close it's the equivalent of 1 strikeout every 22.5 innings, or 4-5 starts), pitcher B is clearly superior. Pitcher A is Berrios, making an average of $18M for the next 7 years. Pitcher B is Bundy, making $5M for just this year, unless the Twins want him for $5M next year too. It's pretty clear the Twins are better off with Bundy (as of now) than the Jays are with Berrios.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    It would have been really interesting to see if they brought Duran out for the 10th if the Twins grabbed a lead in their half of the inning. That said, I do agree that it seems likely they decided to only give Duran one inning today.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Perhaps Correa has an injury that does not require an IL stint, but does require total rest? Otherwise not hitting him for Jeffers in the 10th is a fireable offense. Especially because he wouldn't have even had to stay in on defense, as you'd plug Sanchez in for the bottom of the 10th. I'm starting wonder if Falvey knowing pitching is a problem--does that make Falvey think he can identify guys off the scrap heap, polish them up, and make them part of a competent bullpen? If so, I hope the past few weeks are teaching him some humility. I don't necessarily think Rocco is the problem, but I definitely believe he is not the answer. We tried it, it wasn't a match, best of luck in the future, enjoy your future summers on Naragansett Bay.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I wouldn't hate having Correa in the lineup, other than I think there might be a more impactful way to allocate $35M a year--this of course assumes that Lewis is able to play a competent SS at the MLB level. Your future infield could very well be Arraez at 1B, Steer at 2B, Lewis at SS, and Miranda at 3B; that future could be next year. You could pay that group $15M for the next 3 years combined, or you could get Polanco/Kepler style deals done with all of them, and pay that group $20M a year for the next 5 years. Add Kiriloff, Buxton, and Wallner, and all of the sudden you have a pretty potent lineup, and lots of salary space for pitching.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    More likely they give Archer the extra 5 days—with only 10 games left before the break, but 12 days in which to play them, why not let every pitcher currently in the rotation make 2 starts, rather than shuffle the chairs. On a separate note, an Arraez, Buxton, Lewis, Miranda, Kiriloff top 5 of the order for the next few years looks awfully good right now.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins have an off day on Thursday, and another on Monday. Tomorrow needs to be a game where the best effort is made to win. Buxton in center, Correa at DH. Put the boot down, and do not give this White Sox team any oxygen.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, this is what I don't get. Create an Archer/Winder tandem, and know that you're going to get 9 innings between the two of them every 5 days. That leaves you 7 arms in the pen to handle the other 4 days.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I think he's toxic in the sense that he clearly works against the Twins winning. Every single other player on the roster must have been thinking "here we go again" in the back of their mind last night. Teams have to trust each other, and have confidence in their teammates performing. Pagan is toxic right now in the sense that he corrodes the team's esprit de corps, vis a vis confidence in winning.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Assuming the Twins had won all 4 of the games Pagan has blown, the Twins would actually be up 10 on both CHI and CLE (Twins would be 47-31, Sox 35-39, CLE 34-38). Even if Pagan "only" blows 2 games, the Twins are up 6 on CLE and 8 on CHI. That is how disastrous Pagan has been in the last 9 days; he may single-handedly cost the Twins the Central.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    I would have chosen a guy who hadn't already blown 3 games against the same team in the last 8 days. I wouldn't have known if any of them would work, but I pretty confidently would have known that Pagan would not work.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    I have to think it’s a little hard for Rocco to look 25 guys in the face tonight. Going into tonight, the Twins had played Cleveland 6 times in the last 8 days. They were 3-3, with all 3 losses directly attributable to Emilio Pagan. Rocco’s decision to put him in was utter lunacy. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice, GoT level shame on me. Fool me four times? “Hi, my name’s Rocco Baldelli”.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Falvine seems to enjoy signing veteran reclamation projects as rotation depth. As such, they have a vested interest in maintaining the ability to promise starter’s innings every offseason to whichever pitcher they want to sign to a year plus option contract. I would therefore be very surprised to see either Archer or Bundy ditched from the rotation unless they go full Happ/Shoemaker.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Very true the Twins have a lot of intriguing arms coming up. Also very true that probably half or more of them will be ineffective at the ML level or get switched to the bullpen (after all, up until this year Duran was one of our 3 best SP prospects). Additionally, very true that in modern baseball, you will need more than 5 or even 6 starters. You'll need at minimum 7 or 8 MLB caliber starters every single year; the Twins have already used at least 9 this year, and we're not even halfway through the season (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Archer, Bundy, Winder, Smeltzer, and Gonzalez). Because of that, unless you want to try and churn out 3 new MLB caliber starters every single year from your MiLB system, every organization will have to pay arb or FA money to starters. Even if you could get 2 new MLB caliber starters every year, you'll still need 2-4 starters on arb or FA deals. As such, I'd rather invest $12M a year in a Sonny Gray than have to take fliers every single year on Happs, Shoemakers, Bundys, and Archers. Sometimes it will work, but when it doesn't, it's going to be a problem.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    At this point, someone needs to be the designated piggyback to Archer. It’s very clear that the Twins are just not going to let Archer go more than 5, so whether it’s Winder, Cotton, or Thornburg, there should be someone who knows that they will get 4-5 innings every 5 days, and the other 7 guys in the bullpen will handle the other 4 days.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Even if Gray is your #5 starter in 2026, $12M for one year is not a problem at all. I think having a veteran around to mentor Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, Varland, et al is a very good move to make, especially if it will cost you less than $50M in the next 4 years. If Gray is willing to sign on for 4 more years at $48M, you do that immediately. If you’re that worried about the 2026 season, make it 3/$39 with a $15M option in 2026, with a $3M buyout.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    The most shocking thing to me about all this is that somehow LSU can more than double his current salary (assuming the reported numbers are accurate). The Twins bring in well into 8 figures of revenue a year, and they pay their second-most important on-field employee half of what a rookie 26th man makes? Absolute insanity. That said, leaving in the middle of the season is a fairly scummy move by Wes, and makes me think less of him.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Pure speculation, but maybe the sheer workload is starting to catch up to him. Jose never had that traditional workhorse frame, so maybe the 15 thousand pitches he's thrown since the beginning of 2016 (which of course does not include spring training, postseason, or workouts) has just worn him down. Since he's never really been injured, he never got any relief from that. Of course, perhaps Jose can still turn this around, but if this is a preview of what Berrios might be now, the decision to trade him last July was a prescient one (the choice in return might be another story).
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    In the case of tonight’s game, I don’t really blame Rocco for not calling for Buxton or Correa to bunt. Were it Jeffers or Gordon up, then perhaps there’s a case to bunt.
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