Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Cap'n Piranha

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,719

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    If anything, the Civale trade further reinforces that the Twins should sell, or at least not give up future assets for mediocre veterans. If the Twins need to be buyers to outperform an aggressively mediocre Guardians team trading away its best players, that says volumes about the improbability of beating actual good teams in the postseason.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    If by recent years, you mean since 2021, I agree. The Twins were absolutely competitive in 2019, but due to injuries and bad luck, didn’t make any noise. Hard to blame them for the bizarre season that was 2020. 2017/2018 don’t count against Falvine, since they were still trying to build up from the disaster that was 2016. Dont get me wrong, I think significant changes need to be made at pretty much every level of the organization this off-season. But to pretend the Falvine regime has been 7 years of famine is just not accurate.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    If 5 runs in 10 innings is a positive offensive night to you, then selling is definitely the right course.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I would argue the opposite--the Angels might be the team least able to make these trades, because they might be in the worst cap situation of all. Assuming the Angels re-sign Ohtani and Giolito (since they're still long shots to make the playoffs--16% according to fangraphs--they have to for this deal to be anything other than a massive mistake), it's not unreasonable to think they will have $145 MILLION allocated to 4 players/5 positions (say Ohtani at $50M filling 2 spots, Trout at $38M, Rendon at $37M, Giolito at $20M). It's not out of the realm of possibility either that Ohtani wants $60M or more, and Giolito wants $25M, which would push it to $160M or more. They're also committed to another $35M between Anderson, Drury, Stassi, and Anderson so they're closing on $200M for only 9 roster spots, meaning even if they want to increase their payroll to $250M (higher than anyone other than the Mets and Yankees--two teams the Angels are not in the same tier as financially), they'll have to pay their other 17 players less than $3M on average, which means they'll have to non-tender some of their arb-eligible guys. But, as has been pointed out, the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in the league, and given the payroll limitations outlined above, do not have the ability to spend out of that. It's pretty clear to me that the Angels have the worst top-to-bottom player pool in all of baseball, in terms of ability to actually build a WS contender.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    No kidding on that top point. Go look at the Angel's schedule--after they finish their 3 games against the Motor City Kitties, they don't play another team with a losing record until NYM on August 25 (6 at TOR/ATRL, 7 home SEA/SFG, 6 at HOU/TEX, 6 home TBR/CIN), with only 2 off days. I would not be surprised to see them go 10-15 against that slate, which could put them 10+ back in the division, and 6-7 back in the Wild Card. Even after that, they still have a fairly challenging September with series against PHI, BAL, SEA, TBR, MIN, and TEX (although 2 series against OAK and 1 against DET helps). All of this for a team who is building their recent optimism on a sweep of the Yankees and little else is quite bold.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, he's not wrong. Mahle's career ERA is 4.30, right in line with his career 4.28 FIP. His FIP this year is 4.22, suggesting the 3.16 ERA he posted is more a function of SSS (only 25.2 IP). I'm willing to believe with consistent health he could be better than that, but he's only exceeded 130 IP once in his career, so giving up 2 (more-or-less) MLB ready bats for a player likely to struggle with injuries (pitchers don't usually put shoulder problems behind them as they hit their late 20s) was a predictably bad move at the time, and has only gotten worse as time has gone on.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I see no point in acquiring middle relief relievers--there's so much variability that for every Romo and Fulmer you acquire, you also get a Dyson or Lopez. To build a competent bullpen these days you either need 5 great options (at minimum), or you need to be willing to have a revolving door of options, so you can constantly trade in new guys until you find some who stick.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Not a reason. I don't care about the 18 game postseason losing streak. I care about the 32 year No World Series Appearances streak.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    For the Twins, yes. For Walker Jenkins? No.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    The whole point of selling is to strengthen yourself for future years. If you truly want Cleveland depleted for future years, you should be hoping the Twins go 0-5 while Cleveland goes 6-0, so Cleveland will decide to be buyers.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline; The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success). I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable. As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch. Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Not signing Jenkins would be a complete disaster—get gifted the 5th pick in a generational draft with 5 generational players, and then not sign the player. Whatever it takes, he has to be signed.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    At what point does Buxton do the right thing by the team, and ask out of the lineup for a couple days, at a minimum? It’s one thing to stay in the lineup hitting like this when elite defense is The tradeoff. But right now, Buxton is nothing but an anchor. Also, if forcing the Mariners to use Sewald for 5 pitches tonight is a moral victory, then surely having to use Duran for 3 straight games against one of the worst teams of all time is an even bigger moral defeat.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Very interesting that Rocco was fine with Ortega pitching with a 2 run lead in the 8th, but needed Duran to pitch with a 3 run lead in the 9th. Have to think that the pen tomorrow consists of Pagan, Sands, Balazovic, and Lopez, with Ortega also potentially available. Leave it to Rocco to blow out his fully rested pen in two days against one of the worst teams of all time.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    They do count the same in the regular season, but you won’t get to face KC and Oak in the playoffs. So if you’re interested in anything more than yet another first round exit, paying attention to how the Twins fare against everyone who is not a historically bad team is a good idea.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Yup, I called that out in my post from Thursday at 8:55 (start of second paragraph). I’m under no illusion that my viewpoint is how current MVPs are decided. I’m saying it should be, because the current system only considers one side of the value coin. Change the name of the award to MOP (Most Outstanding Player), and I’d have no issue whatsoever with the current criteria.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Exception that proves the rule--you can only name one example? Also, Duran was not exactly high level in the middle of 2017; He was 19, had yet to pitch more than 64 innings in a season, and had a 4.24 ERA (4.98 FIP, 4.53 xFIP) with less than 6.5 k/9 in low A. Intriguing piece to be sure, but he was not a top 100 prospect, or anywhere close to it.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    It's not about the lowest cost--that's the misnomer here. If Mike Trout goes out and puts up a .400/.550/.800 slash line with 75 homers and 60 stolen bases, all while winning the platinum glove in CF--which results in 20 WAR--he can absolutely win MVP, even with a $37M salary. Value is about balance between production and cost; look at Costco for example. Costco does not try and sell the cheapest possible goods, they try and sell goods that are at the highest possible intersection of high quality and (relatively) low price. MVP should not go to whichever pre-arb player has the highest WAR, it should go to the player who has the best mix of high production and (again, relatively) low cost. A 6 WAR player at $14M a year is not a better player than 8 WAR Mike Trout at $37M. But given the extra $23M a year to spend elsewhere, they are more valuable.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    When I see posters claiming that the only impediment to teams winning is owners not being willing to spend more, it is clear some people do expect the owners to lose money. If no one expects the owners to lose money, then there clearly is a cap to how much players can make (total team revenues less all other costs to operate an MLB franchise). Therefore, the more an individual player makes, the less pay there is available for other players, unless of course, we do expect an owner to lose money.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Planning to retire/being eligible for FA are essentially the same thing in the eyes of a team trading for talent at the deadline. There is no team that would trade for him with the plan to re-sign him. To emphasize that point--can you think of a single player traded at the deadline before they were set to become a FA that signed an extension with the acquiring team rather than hit FA? I can't, and I bet you can't either. Therefore, no one trading for Gray is turned off by his musings about retirement, since it's completely irrelevant to the remainder of this year, which is the only span of time the acquiring team is interested in.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Anyone trading for Sonny Gray at the deadline knows full well he's an impending FA. Gray saying he might retire does not impact his trade value one bit.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Steve Cohen might be. And if all owners acted like Steve Cohen, I guarantee you most owners would lose money.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Expecting owners to lose millions on their teams every year just because "they can afford it" is silly. Most people who spend more than they make because they can afford it pretty soon find they no longer can. Why do you think the Angels have had such a hard time selecting the right players for their supporting cast? Is it possibly because they have to minimize their spending to an average of $4M-$5M per player, thus creating a shallower pool of talent from which to choose? I'm not arguing what the rules are--I'm arguing what I believe to be the true definition of value. Getting a disproportionately higher level of production for pay is incredibly valuable, as it frees up teams to spend more on other players. This is in no way debateable. Whether you want to include that in your calculus is entirely up to you, and is of course your right, but to pretend that in modern baseball it is irrelevant how much a player makes is just not rooted in reality.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    This is a really great point. Imagine Falvine walks into Joe Pohlad's office; "So we're about to miss the playoffs for the third straight year despite that record payroll you gave us, so time to start trading players away! By the way Boss, we're really good at our jobs! Should we start talking about our plans for 2024?"
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Nothing the Angels do surprises me. Undeniably the worst run organization in baseball. To have the 2 greatest players of the last 20 years on your team and for the last few years concurrently, and yet to have only one playoff appearance in 14 years? That's absolutely awful.
×
×
  • Create New...