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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    LF. Larnach had 1.1 WAR last season playing in 25 games. If he is healthy for even half the season he should be able to put up at least 2 WAR. The position to be worried about is 3B as Miranda has not been tested there defensively. Of course he is an option at first base as well.
  2. Eris
    The Guardians had one of the youngest teams in the MLB last year. Barring injuries they will only get better. Kwan is the Guardians version of Luis Arraez, but able to play a decent defense.
  3. Eris
    Any player whose contributes negative value defensively is a primary candidate to see more time at DH. This explains why Luis Arraez is towards the top of games played at DH. Based on last years defense, Jose Miranda might see more time at DH. Hoping he plays solid D at third.
  4. Eris
    The baseball hall of stats has Mauer well above Molina in terms of Hall of Fame worthiness. According to the hall of stats website, Molina should not be inducted into the HoF. This will serve as a useful test of the perception of Mauer vs that of Molina. http://www.hallofstats.com/position/c
  5. Eris
    I am disappointed that the contract keeps coming up. Reality is that Joe Mauer’s career was cut short by a career altering concussion. Of which he was still having symptoms the year he retired. Would there be the same level of discussion about the contract if his career would have been altered by a back injury suffered in, e.g., a home plate collision. Twins and their fans were robbed of truly great careers from Mauer, Justin Morneau, and to a lesser extent Corey Koskie—all because of career altering concussions. But because Mauer was in a different stage of his contract we somehow feel differently about his injury.
  6. Eris
    Matt, thank you for the well written article. It made my Sunday.
  7. Eris
    For HoF voting, he will be compared to his contemporaries. Francisco Lindor is clearly the best. Correa is grouped with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Therefore it is doubtful that he makes it. Unless, perhaps, Correa delivers 2 or 3 World Series titles for the Twins while earning MVP honors along the way. Even then, he will still be compared to Lindor for HoF voting.
  8. Eris
    I am a little bit puzzled by the large differences in DRS vs statcast metrics. in the catch probability leaderboard Buxton has 84% catch probability and 8 outs above average. And 66% of 4 star opportunities v Kepler: 69% and 11 OAA, 62% of 4 star opportunities Gallo is 58% and -3 OAA. 22% of 4 star opportunities Obviously one main difference is the OAA and catch probability doesn’t take into consideration arm strength and accuracy, whereas DRS does.
  9. Eris
    Fangraphs because I find their site easier to use.
  10. Eris
    I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to offer a 9 year deal that was not contingent on a physical especially since both the Giants and the Mets had enough concerns to scuttle their deals with Correa.
  11. Eris
    While it is easy to point fingers at the Mets for so quickly signing a contract when the Giants had issues with Correa’s medicals. It should be noted that Boras indicated that Correa’s doctors did not agree with the Giant’s opinion. For me, Boras loses credibility on this as he as an agent depends on building relationships with team front offices. For long term success these contracts have to be wins for both the players and owners.
  12. Eris
    I don’t disagree with your assessment. However, Boras represents his clients. Historically he has attracted clients who wanted the most money/longest contracts or some combination of. If Correa told Boras to work out a contract with the Mets that involved an injury exclusion, Boras would be obligated to do so.
  13. Eris
    The Correa saga is interesting. For 2 years in a row teams have thrown big money at many free agents and Correa has missed out (or is close to missing out ). I wonder why this is.
  14. Eris
    I can’t disagree with the conclusions. Is it possible that the Twins have reached this situation because all of the obvious base stealing candidates are either a high risk for injuries or have hurt themselves previously running bases. I would consider Buxton, Polanco, Kepler and Gordon to be obvious base stealing candidates. Of these only Gordon has been relatively uninjured over the last couple of years.
  15. Eris
    Since 2018, Kepler has 37 OAA 5th best) and Gallo has 5 (59th best). I not sure how Gallo can be considered close close to Kepler defensively. By way of comparison, Jake Cave had 3 OAA over this time period. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2018&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=of&roles=&viz=show
  16. Eris
    Reports have Correa signing with the Mets. https://nypost.com/2022/12/21/carlos-correa-agrees-to-12-year-315-million-deal-with-mets/ https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/mets-to-sign-carlos-correa.html
  17. Eris
    I would not consider Correa to be more decorated than Lindor. Per Fangraphs, Lindor has put up 11 more WAR than Correa. They were both rookies in 2015. Lindor also plays a better and more consistent defense. Correa is the better offensive player. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2015-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  18. Eris
    I am not bothered by Correa signing elsewhere, especially for that length of contract. He is not an elite defender at SS and I doubt that he will stick there for more than a few more years. It would have been wonderful for Correa to be Twin for the next 3 or 4 years, but signing the most expensive free agents to decade long contracts is not how the Twins will be competitive long term as the Twins can not afford a bad contract of that magnitude should things go south. I am more bothered by the Jorge Lopez for Povich trade. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/orioles-trade-jorge-lopez-twins-closer.html
  19. Eris
    The Mets are now interested in Carlos Correa because of course they are! Who aren't the former #lolmets interested in nowadays? It's not as if they have a shortstop that's truly great. They obviously need two of them.. *sigh* View full rumor
  20. Eris
    More information about "NY Post reports Mets interested in Correa"
    The Mets are now interested in Carlos Correa because of course they are! Who aren't the former #lolmets interested in nowadays? It's not as if they have a shortstop that's truly great. They obviously need two of them.. *sigh*
  21. Eris
    I have never really understood the trade Max Kepler rumors. He is a well above average defensive outfielder, capable of filling in at CF with slightly below average offensive output. His contract for 2023 is a very reasonable 8.5 million (compared to for example the 17.5 million 1 year contract that Cody Bellinger signed). Trading Max Kepler will not bring back the elite SP the Twins desperately need, but will make our outfield defense much worse.
  22. Eris
    San Diego agreed to an 11-year, $280 million contract with shortstop Xander Bogaerts late Wednesday night, The Post’s Jon Heyman first reported. The deal includes a no-trade clause. I think the view on these threads was that Bogaerts was considered an affordable alternative to Correa. What does this mean for Correa’s contract. Maybe 10 years at $350 million.
  23. Eris
    Interesting question as Miranda, barring a trade, will be a core fixture for the Twins for at least the next 5 years or so. Part of this depends on his work ethic. There have been players who have worked hard and this resulted in going from below average to above average at the hot corner. Corey Koskie comes to mind. I would have thought that most 3B could slide across the diamond and do better at first base. Miranda’s performance at 1B should be a huge flag.
  24. Eris
    What I would like to see is an analysis of the Twins pitching injuries in both the majors and minors and evaluating how this compares to other organizations.
  25. Eris
    “The Twins have shown an eye for the right relief talent, but they've usually been unable to properly actualize it while in Minnesota. In order to escape their cycle of bullpen torment, they need to break the spell.“ Interesting article. Your last paragraph summarizes the challenge/ problem nicely. It would be interesting to have a more expansive summary as there are other pitchers who have moved on from the Twins. I would also add that under the Wes Johnson era, the Twins were getting more out of their pitching staff. However, concurrently, many pitchers in the organization both MLB and minors, had extended stays on the DL. These quantity of injuries, more than many other factor, decimated the talent available for the Twins. Not sure if the run of injuries is a correlation with trying to get more out of the pitchers or if it is plain bad luck.
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