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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    I agree with your assessment, because of injuries it seems at times the Twins struggle to put together a decent outfield. The general theme of the article is that the Twins need a RH bat. I don’t necessarily agree with that as what Twins really need is for the RH bats on their roster to perform (Correa, Miranda, Buxton). However, one of the drivers for this theme is that up and down the farm system our top outfielders are LH bats. My suggestion was that we trade one of these LH hitting outfielders for an equivalent RH outfielder. Not that we trade an outfielder for a 1B.
  2. Eris
    Adding a right handed bat is difficult from a roster construction. The Twins have plenty of RH bats on the 40 man. Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Lewis are all capable HR threats, that 3 or more as Lewis was also out for awhile of these individuals were injured or otherwise had poor seasons is the real problem. Can they swing a trade of one of their surplus outfielders (Larnach e.g.) for an equivalent RH bat.
  3. Eris
    I’m not understanding why the Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades are excluded. Without looking these up there is also Sam Dyson, Michael Fulmer, Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddock.
  4. Eris
    I agree with your assessment. The outfield is average to slightly above average. However, upgrading from this via a trade is not so easy. If you take Kepler as an example there are only about 10 outfielders who have both better offensive and defensive metrics than Max Kepler. (Data is from Fangraphs) It may take a significant package to acquire someone better than Kepler on both sides of the ball. Our best hope for OF improvement is internally. If the criteria is improvement in either offense or defense, but not both, than that is much easier to achieve.
  5. Eris
    In an article about ownership penny-pinching, one could conclude that many of the $$ spent last season did not contribute to the team’s on field performance. Add in the $10+ million on both Gallo and Vasquez and it is easy to see why ownership might be asking the FO “what did I get for my money last year. “
  6. Eris
    Kepler, Castro and Wallner had WRC+ above league average. Larnach was close to average with a WRC+ = 99. This is without Buxton. Granted, the defense is not elite. Data is from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=8 By team OF, the Twins were slightly above average, 11th or 12th depending on which metrics are used. The OF position most in need of upgrading from 2023 is CF. Because of uncertainty surrounding Buxton, this also the most difficult to manage. There is also uncertainty with regards to Kepler and Wallner maintaining this past year’s production. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  7. Eris
    One of the challenges the Twins have is that they are above average at most positions and therefore it is hard to improve the team via trades (except possibly by adding a starting pitcher, and that also comes with risks). The players most discussed in moving (Polanco and Kepler) will not bring a decent MLB ready pitcher. Unless we get lucky as in the trade that brought Joe Ryan.
  8. Eris
    I think one of the challenges in assessing the value of Trevor Larnach is that he has not been able to stay healthy.
  9. Eris
    Not meaning for this comment to take anything away from Texas, but Fangraphs have Dusty Baker an F for his in game management. One of the reasons was for continually using the same 3 relievers until they were out of gas. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alcs-managerial-report-card-dusty-baker/
  10. Eris
    The Twins as a team need to consistently take quality at bats to advance to the next level. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but in a radio broadcast it was mentioned that the Twins lose about 2/3 of the games where the have more than 10 Ks.
  11. Eris
    Agree with everything you have written about Royce Lewis. It has been quite awhile since the Twins have had a player who could repeatedly rise to the occasion and elevate their game when it is most needed.
  12. Eris
    Could someone please comment on the defensive aspect of Prato and Helman’s game. Neither Gordon or Castro are above average defensively.
  13. Eris
    Another factor is that Brooks Lee does not need to be put on the 40 man roster this year. That is one less player that can be protected from the rule 5 draft.
  14. Eris
    I thought Blayne Enlow throws RH.
  15. Eris
    Royce Lewis is having a better season than Gunnar Henderson, who is the top candidate for AL RoY. Lewis has a better OPS (910 vs 823) WRC+ (150 vs 124) and BA (0.302 vs 0.257). The major difference is that Henderson has 502 plate appearances vs 202 for Lewis (about 2.5x more). In cumulative stats Henderson leads. HR (26 vs 14) RBI (76 vs 50) fWAR (4.2 vs 2.1). There offensive vs defensive splits are about the same in that both are offensive first player but not a liability on defense. Lewis should be in the discussion as a RoY candidate. He is clearly out playing Gunnar Henderson and should be given more consideration for RoY. Current AL Rookie of the Year Odds: (from Bleacher Report) Gunnar Henderson -215 Masataka Yoshida +330 Triston Casas +400 Tanner Bibee +1500 Josh Jung +7500 Esteury Ruiz/Royce Lewis/Edouard Julien +10000
  16. Eris
    “Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6.” Maybe there is a deficiency with statistics in that a player with a batting average of 0.238 is considered to be 45% above league average. It seems that power may be overrated. Ronald Acuna Jr., has a K% = 11.3 with a BA = 0.334 has a WRC+ of 168. (Data is from Fangraphs)
  17. Eris
    They should move Correa to the IL right now. Farmer or Lewis can man SS. Some sacrifice on D but I am not sure the Twins would be worse off.
  18. Eris
    We are all assuming that this is a move that the Angels made without consequences. How do players in general feel about this. Will this impact the ability of the Angels to attract free agents. Part of this would be on how it was handled. Did they ask the players who were waived if they wanted an opportunity to play for a contender. I have not read an articles about the human element of these roster moves. Mike Clevinger who one of the better pitchers placed on waivers, went unclaimed. Although he had other baggage (domestic abuse) his buyout clause was an inhibiting factor in being claimed. This suggests what players can do to limit being claimed on waivers. In Clevinger’s case his buyout is 4 million dollars.
  19. Eris
    I don’t really think there is a fair to do this as every system that can be devised has pluses and minuses. From a team perspective, extending the trade deadline would give every team an opportunity to bid on a player. And perhaps would seem the most fair to the teams still in the playoff hunt. Granting free agency to the waived player would would likely result in the best free agents going to the best teams as given a choice, the player would choose the team that appears most likely to go deep in the postseason. This overall would be good for the players but not good for baseball. Generally, I think it is good for players on uncompetitive teams to to be waived or traded to teams that are still playing for the postseason. This is especially true for players on expiring contracts as it gives them an opportunity to further showcase their talents and value. (An example of this is Eddie Rosario receiving a contract from the Braves primarily because of his postseason heroics).
  20. Eris
    I’m not sure this would matter. The old system was revocable waivers. The claiming team could work out a trade, or sometimes a team would let the waiver claim proceed. If the player cleared waivers they could be traded to any team. However, the decision was left for the team placing the player on waivers as to whether or not they would let the waiver claim go through. In the current case (with the Angels) the outcome could have been the same if the Angels were content to let a player go with no compensation other than salary relief. The revocable waivers was more of a game of chess as blocking a move from your competitor was part of the strategy. Most of the time (but not always) this could be done without acquiring the player as most teams expected to receive a trade as part of the outcome.
  21. Eris
    The challenge with changing the waiver rules to move every team that claimed a player to back of the line is that eventually a good player on waivers will be awarded to best team in the league. I think current system has worked just fine. Cincinnati and Cleveland might be better teams now and baseball will have a more competitive stretch run. If this happens, baseball as a whole will be better off. (Of course not so good for the Twins) There are many elements the waiver/ free agent system that lack fairness under some circumstances. At least with the waiver claims, the worst teams receives the first chance at benefiting and they pay the salaries. I think an equally interesting example that has not received any attention is Josh Donaldson clearing waivers and signing a minor league contract with the Brewers. In case of an injury Josh Donaldson could be eligible for the Brewers post season roster and the Brewers risk is the prorated league minimum. Josh Donaldson has been hurt most of the year, his performance has been declining (and he has a reputation for not being a good teammate) but he is still an above average defender. I think the Brewers got a steal. Insurance at one of their weakest positions without having to make any roster decisions.
  22. Eris
    It is really hard to know. If one of the acquired pitchers gets hot down the stretch it might have a big impact. The deadline trade of Steve Pearce in 2018 barely registered but he got hot in the postseason and earned WS MVP honors.
  23. Eris
    Here are what I see as positives for baseball 1) AL Central race is now more competitive —although bad for the Twins —potentially good for baseball 2) Some good players will be playing in October instead of watching The bad 1) Angels improve their future situation by tanking and save $$$ in the process. 2) The worst team benefits the most as they have first choice in waiver claims The players who cleared waivers can still be released and as such would be free agents. The signing team would pay the prorated league minimum with the Angels (or releasing team) paying the remainder. I don’t see outright releasing as a preferred alternative to waiver claims as I think the released players would gravitate to the best teams (as players would choose the path that gave the best opportunity for a ring). In this scenario, the best teams would get better at the expense of the out of contention teams
  24. Eris
    These waiver acquisitions are not a free lunch and involve roster management decisions that can impact the playoffs or possibly future talent. Moving someone to the 60 day IL is the only move that doesn’t involve potentially losing a player. Theoretically let’s say the Twins (or any other team) puts in for 6 waiver claims and is awarded all 6. What do they do. They could move several players to the 60 day IL, maybe release a few from the 40 man roster. I suppose they could release the newly acquired waiver claim (is this allowed). The acquiring team would be on the hook for the remainder of the contract, but they also prevent another team from putting that player on the playoff roster (as these transactions are taking place on the last day to have 40 man additions eligible for the playoff roster). A possible outcome is that the few most desirable waiver claims go to worst team at this time (e.g., Cincinnati) that team gets hot and goes deep into the playoffs.
  25. Eris
    Interesting article, but I am confused. This write up was written as if these are all irrevocable waivers. Does this mean that the revocable waivers is a thing of the past. If someone clears waivers they can not be traded as the trade deadline was Aug 1. Thank you for clarifying.
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