chpettit19

As long as Lopez brings his nasty filth, too, they have a real chance!

Filthy, nasty, and gas. Mostly slider fastball with a split mixed in.

So would all but 5 teams in baseball.

Correa's ankle and how it holds up for 6 years was the concern this offseason. At this point the far bigger concern is Buxton's knees and if he can make it to the end of his contract as even a DH. If he can't make through 2 months as a DH only at this point without having his knees bark at him its hard to imagine he's got 6 years left in him.

They need a new video guy. He's batting about as well as the Twins with the bases loaded and no outs.

I don't know if where they "draw the lines" for pull, center, oppo is different, but statcast is using camera generated data while baseball reference is using human entered ball data. At least they were 2 years ago, I may be unaware of a change there, but I doubt they have their own camera generated data at this point. It can also be a difference in where they mark the end of a ball's journey. I know the data BR has used in the past marks a grounder at the edge of the infield. The "pie slices" are tighter there than in the OF. If statcast is marking where a grounder ends as where it's picked up in the OF it can add some extra variance on grounders in the gaps as the pie slices grow bigger and spin on the ball can lead to some variance the farther it rolls. My guess would be it's a combination of a number of these things. I tend to trust statcast, and their camera technology, significantly more on any ball data. The camera is far more reliable than the humans trying to track a dozen data points at a time live. Although, those humans are incredibly good at their jobs. There's just far more variance with dozens of humans trying to judge things live instead of the cameras. The human variance is another reason defensive metrics should be taken with a giant helping of salt.

Statcast and fangraphs disagree pretty dramatically with those numbers.

FYI, the Twins (40.8%) are actually closer to league average (38.5%) in pull% than they are to leading the league (43.7%). Probably not great to exaggerate stats if you're going to call people out for strawman arguments.

Is Jax tipping pitches? Guys have real comfortable takes, and Moniak was all over that change.

Have you seen him play OF? Did you watch how he played in the AFL? I mean even the play he got hurt on showed he's fully capable of playing an above average CF.

Oh, I'd prefer any of the big 3 college players over the HS kids as well, but those 5 overall have ceilings significantly higher than anyone else in the draft, and the Twins passing on Clark or Jenkins would be a massive disappointment. I would've taken Jackson Holliday over Lee last year if it'd been possible. HS arms in the top 10? Never. But elite position players out of HS have pretty solid hit rates these days with all the Team USA, and summer circuits they play. Positional flexibility can come into play if the prospects are in the same tier, but they aren't. The top 5 are on a different level, and passing up a possible superstar because they're a CFer instead of a SS should get the FO fired. If Gordon had started as a CFer he'd still have made the big leagues. I wouldn't have drafted him out of HS either, but it's because he wasn't a good enough prospect to draft him in the top 10 like they did. They shouldn't. There should be no concern at all about competitive windows or balancing asset categories when you're picking in the top 5. None at all. Take the best player available. Jenkins and Clark have higher ceilings than anyone in the system. Taking a B prospect SS or C or SP because your system is weaker there instead of taking an A level OF is bad asset management. If you end up with 5 LH OF All Stars trade a couple for whatever else you need. It's all about collecting the most talent possible. Figure out the rest later. I'm sorry for being unclear with what I was comparing Lewis to. I was simply saying a 5 tool center fielder is more valuable than a Machado or Altuve. I really hope he's not a 90 game a year guy like Buxton. That'd be soul crushing. I don't know why they'd wait for the off-season to move Lewis if the bigger hole to fill this season is CF. If they have better players to cover 3B and 2B (Farmer, Miranda, Polanco, Julien) than CF (Taylor and Castro), I don't get why they'd play the season with the better IFers on the bench and Taylor or Castro in CF. Royce is no seasoned vet in CF, but he's played it, and played it well. He's fully capable of stepping out there and doing it tomorrow. If that's how you get your best 9 guys on the field I don't know why they wouldn't do it.

It's pretty widely accepted that the 5 guys at the top of this draft would likely all have been the first overall pick last year if they were in that class. Whichever guy they end up with will immediately be their #1 prospect. But to each their own. Best player available is the only way to draft in baseball. Roster need/fit shouldn't play into it in any way. Way too much can change in 3-5 years. Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree that a fully healthy Buxton isn't more valuable than Machado or Altuve. The last 2 seasons CF has been the 2nd worst hitting position in the league. A superstar bat that can also play CF is more valuable than a superstar bat that plays at a bat first position. 2B is maybe becoming less bat first now that they've limited the shifts, though, I will concede that. I'm not moving Lewis for Miranda in the sense that Miranda is better than Lewis, I'm moving Lewis to CF because they have nobody else who can play CF and hit (unless they're going to put Buxton back there), but they likely have other guys who can play 3B and hit. It's not about just Miranda vs Lewis, it's about the complete team setup. Without Buxton, CF is way more of a hole than 3B. Especially if Lee is who we think/hope he is. And if Julien hits like we hope he's way better than any CF option they have so 2B is less of a hole than CF as well. But I don't think ERod sticks in CF, and I think he's still 2 years away, and you may view him differently. But for this year and next, I don't see anyone else on the roster who can play CF, but I see multiple options at 3B and 2B. So I'd let Lewis be a star in CF.

Interesting. And I hate it if that's the case and he's not already in LA. That'd be the 2nd time they've decided to make a move right before a game, and forced themselves to play a man short. If Julien really is on his way to LA because (I assume) Polanco or Gallo are going to hit the IL they needed to make that decisions at the latest by this morning and had Julien in uniform tonight. Self inflicted wound if they're playing a man short when they're about to IL somebody.

I have no idea if not playing Buxton in CF at all is the best idea. I understand the thought behind it. But if he can't even play 1 game a week there at all this year this team is drastically different than it could be. And I have no reason to believe there's any medical reason to not put Royce Lewis in CF. The only debate about him out there, as far as I'm concerned, is whether him in CF is better for getting the best overall team on the field, or of him at 3B is better. I see way more options at 3B than I do CF so I'd put him in CF.

My thoughts on the current 13 man hitter roster, player by player: (ordered by highest to lowest wRC+) Kirilloff: 186 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 1B, LF, RF Gallo: 144 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 1B, LF, RF Buxton: 129 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. The real challenge is they won't put him in CF (no idea if that's the right decision or not, but it's most definitely not ideal) Jeffers: 129 wRC+ should be in an even split with Vazquez. Fine playing him at C. Farmer: 128 wRC+ should be playing everyday to find out if he can actually hit righties this year. Fine playing him anywhere in the IF, never seen him in cOF so not sure on that. Polanco: 124 wRC+ should be locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 2B, and wouldn't cry if he spot started at SS. Larnach: 103 wRC+ I'd play him everyday for a week and see if he's found his swing again like he has the last couple games. Fine playing him in LF or RF. Solano: 95 wRC+ I'd keep him in his current "only hits against lefties" for the rest of the month, and send him out for Lewis. Fine with him playing 2B and 1B, even though it's not ideal, they're his only options with Buxton at DH. MAT: 91 wRC+ I'd like him in defensive replacement/pinch runner role, with spot starts to give a guy a day if needed. Fine with him in the OF anywhere. Garlick: 82 wRC+ I don't think short side platoon, negative base runner, negative fielder players have any spot on any roster, unless it's the playoffs and you know you're running with your core 9 guys and have a MAT type player to immediately replace him after an AB Correa: 80 wRC+ Has to play everyday. Simply needs to get his act together. No idea how you decide when to pull the plug on your newly re-signed cornerstone player. Castro: 77 wRC+ I like him as a pinch runner, super-utility backup used sparingly, and not as some sort of true platoon. Fine with him playing any position but catcher. Vazquez: 72 wRC+ I'd split him 50/50 with Jeffers because I believe he plays a real role in the pitching success. So I have 7 "everyday" guys for right now, plus the C timeshare. I know we disagree on some defensive things, and I have much higher standards for who I'd put in up-the-middle defensive spots. To me the obvious opening is CF, and Buxton would go a long ways to fixing that. Then you call up Julien, or whoever, and see what they can do. But, to me, every other spot is filled with guys who either deserve to play based on current performance (Farmer, Gallo, Kirilloff), you need to see if they've figured it out (Larnach), are your core (Buxton, Correa, Polanco), or are the catchers. Their problem continues to be that they're full of corner defenders, and have no answer for Buxton not playing CF. Thoughts?

What they said at the beginning of this rehab assignment was they were going to start him at just SS and 3B as he got started since that's where he was most comfortable, but they'd reassess as time went on. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they'll look at it during his rehab, but they certainly didn't shut the door on it. Like last year, I'd guess the rest of the roster's performance, and injuries, will probably dictate some of it. Will be interesting to see how it all progresses.

True, but as you mentioned in the other comment, the shift also effected that. The shift really negated things at 2B. IF defensive stuff got even harder to judge/weight as some teams would move their 3B to the right side and leave the SS on the left side alone. That went away more and more as teams fine tuned their shift strategies. I don't think it's crazy to put 2B up there with CF with the shift limitations back in place now, but you're definitely going to find some teams (I can tell you there's at least 3- or at least some employees in 3 FOs) that still feel their data on batted balls can allow them to get away with lesser defenders in non-SS IF positions over what they're willing to do in CF as far as limiting fielding/range there goes. It's a fun debate. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins weight defense over the next couple years as they have some clear bat over glove players coming and will have to decide where they want their premium gloves. The last 2 last years CF was the 2nd worst hitting position in baseball (predictably behind C). This year it's the 2nd best behind only 1B. Will be interesting to see where things end up at the end of the season.

Twins still need an elite bat. Buxton may touch elite numbers, but he's too streaky. Correa will bounce back and end with some nice numbers, which means he lit it up for a good stretch, but he's not elite, just elite for a SS. Polanco needs to be a 120ish OPS+ hitter. But, to be a real threat, the Twins need someone to be a consistent, elite bat. Their options are Kirilloff and Lewis internally, or a trade. I don't know who'll end up being available, but I'd like them to be involved in talks on any big bats that are on the block this year. Even if Lewis and Kirilloff are laying claim to top 5 spots in the order. They need someone with a 140+ OPS+/wRC+. But getting Correa looking even semi-consistent would be a nice start to fixing things.

And I'd replace him with Lewis as well. My stance is that Royce Lewis would be in CF any day Byron Buxton isn't in CF for the foreseeable future. Now there's a number of variables that can change that for this season, but as a general plan for the CF position those would be the 2 guys I want there.

I'd hope fangraphs has changed their calculations in the last 15 years.

Taylor's a great defender in CF, but he's not a good hitter. If I can get a good fielder, and improved bat, in CF I'll take that over the glove only player in Taylor. They have bats that can fill other spots that are better than Taylor. Just trying to get the best bats in the lineup without tanking the defense.

Where does that ranking come from, and what is it based on?

I've been tracking him, and he's, unfortunately, coming back to earth pretty hard in May. Most definitely still a respectable hitter this month, but nothing like his MVP worthy April. Slugging down to .410 this month, but still taking his walks and keeping his OPS up in the .750 range. I hope he's found something and becomes a nice big leaguer, though. Seems like a hard worker, and a good kid.

Why do the high school lefties carry less value now and the future? If either of them turns out to be Corbin Carroll I'd think it'd be pretty valuable, no? A CFer who can field and hit is lightyears more valuable than a 2B or 3B who can. And Lewis has been very good out there. Go watch his AFL tape, and even the play he got hurt on. If Lewis is Buxton 2.0 this team would have a way bigger advantage than if he's Polanco 2.0.

I don't think Balazovic is ready, but I agree with your general point. I'm not at all arguing for Pagan to be on the team. I've been wanting him cut since last year. I have no idea why they tenured him a contract to fill that role, or any role, other than they maybe thought they could work him into a high leverage role as the season progressed. And I have no idea why they seem to think that.