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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Brent Rooker crashed back to earth so hard he's working his way to the molten core at this point. He's a great example of SSS judgements. I don't expect Cano to come back as hard as Rooker did (he hit 2 HRs with a .198/.290/.327/.616 quad-slash in May), but let's give Cano more than 2 months before we crown him the next Mo. Along the same lines, but not aimed at you, it's fascinating to see people complain about giving up the great Yennier Cano for the clearly flawed, half-season wonder Jorge Lopez. Cano is automatically great, and the Twins screwed up, because he's had 2 really good months, but it was crazy to think Lopez was any good after he had 4 good months.
  2. chpettit19
    I don't think the Twins view the hot corner as settled at all. I think it's settled for right now, but I don't think we're seeing them put Lewis at 3B and not think about it for 6 more years. Putting an up the middle defender at a corner spot and leaving them there with no questions isn't how most teams would operate. The Twins lack true up the middle defenders, and, if Lewis is one (yes, even in that death trap known as center field), they'll look for an opportunity to move him back to the middle. Even if it's Lee taking over 3B instead of Miranda taking the job back, Lewis would move to 2B over sticking at 3B with Lee at 2B. Having up the middle players move to a corner, and provide plus defense there, is obviously super nice, but not if it means having negative defense up the middle. Having corner bats capable of playing up the middle is a huge advantage. If Lewis is one of those players, but they leave him at a corner while playing lesser players up the middle, the Twins are wasting the advantage they have in Lewis.
  3. chpettit19
    My worry about Buxton playing CF is no longer about the now, it's about the next 5 years. It goes without saying that Buxton in CF is the best possibility for this, or just about any, team. Every person employed by the Twins want to see Buxton in CF more than any of us here do. If they thought he could physically hold up to any time in CF right now he'd be getting that much time in CF. The medical people have, in my view, clearly told them his knee can't handle it. Watching him grimace and limp while just DHing seems to make that a pretty easy diagnoses from our cheap seats even. If he can play CF in the playoffs this year I'll be happy. I don't need to see him there for a single inning before that if his knee isn't right. My questions really just revolve around whether or not it's possible for that knee to ever be right again. He's got 5 years left on his deal after this one. If this is who he is for the rest of his career it changes this entire franchise's outlook. If him taking a trip to the 60 day IL gives him a real chance to get back to 100%, and CF capable, I'd do that. If him ending his season now and having 8 months of recovery time before next season gets him back to 100%, and CF capable, I'd do that. If there's no real amount of rest that can truly fix his knee then just keep DHing him until the playoffs and hope he can man CF then. Don't ruin his knee for the next 5 years just to keep his struggling bat in the lineup now. They can't be that shortsighted now. They can't afford to throw away 15 mil on him for the next 3-5 years (he has a full no trade clause for 3 more years) But just because he's Byron Buxton doesn't mean he has to hit in the top 4 of the order. DH him everyday to get his bat going again, but put him towards the bottom of the lineup. It's June. Performance needs to be the dictator of play now, not what you hoped a guy was going to be (also looking at that Kepler fella in right, and Correa's lineup positioning, and Garlick even being on the team).
  4. chpettit19
    I'd suggest taking a look around baseball and seeing what the rest of the league is doing. It doesn't match your desire for the Twins. Jordan Walker was the #1 prospect in baseball according to some of the public rankings coming into this season. he played 3B up until the end of last season even though they knew he wasn't great there, and was blocked by some guy named Arenado in St Louis. In the majors they switched him to RF. Gavin Lux played SS/2B for all but 18 innings of his minor league career, the Dodgers called him up and put him in CF. Trea Turner was a SS in the minors, he got called up and put in CF. Nico Hoerner, Manny Machado, Ronald Acuna, BJ Upton, Kris Bryant the list goes on forever. This is how it works. The odds that every MLB team is wrong about developing players is probably pretty low.
  5. chpettit19
    For the record, Buxton doesn't hit better as a CFer. Not significantly so, at least. Last year in 230 PAs as a CFer he had an OPS of .853. In 148 PAs as a DH he had an OPS of .823. That's not a significant difference at all. Do we think the Twins believe he could currently handle playing CF, but they're just refusing to put him there? Isn't the far more likely answer that he physically can't do it, and that's why the team is deliberately choosing to not use their best overall weapon as their best overall weapon?
  6. chpettit19
    1. Correa- Don't know how it could be anyone else 2. Mahle- I thought he'd come out determined to earn a big contract in the offseason, and would be a #2 type pitcher. That didn't work out. 3. Miranda- Not so disappointing that he had some sophomore struggles, that's not rare, but how he came upon his struggles. Seemed to have lost all plate discipline, and his approach, completely. That's disappointing. 4. Buxton- My read is that his knee(s) is(are) are a real problem. I don't think they're DHing him to lower the number of ways he could get an acute injury, but because his legs simply can't hold up to the wear and tear of the field. I'm not positive on it, and maybe it's a short term thing. That's the only reason he isn't #1 on my list. If his knee(s) is(are) toast, he's number 1 with a bullet because that's franchise changing for 6 years. 5. Polanco- His performance overall has been solid, but more injuries is disappointing. The late start, and then another IL stint, makes me worried he's breaking down, too. He's a vital part of this team, and him breaking down changes a lot. I wasn't a big believer in Gordon so I'm not very disappointed in him, although, he was much worse than I'd have guessed. And Vazquez is here for his glove, not his bat. So not really disappointed there.
  7. chpettit19
    Welcome to Twins Daily! Great first post. The Guardians are definitely a team we shouldn't count out as they always seem to find a hot stretch eventually. The young guys are starting to lay claim to this being their team. Fun to see. The next generation is emerging!
  8. chpettit19
    I'd actually rank Jeffers 4th, and Kirilloff 5th if I were really ranking their chances of making it overall, and thus doing a little forecasting for the next month. If Jeffers starts taking more and more playing time from Vazquez, and keeps hitting, he'll have a real argument for being one of the top 3 catchers in the AL. If Kirilloff just keeps doing what he's doing he'll have a real argument as one of the better hitters in the AL, but missing so much time will really hurt him. My Rankings: Duran Ryan Gray Jeffers Kirilloff
  9. chpettit19
    We don't disagree there. I didn't say average was acceptable, or we should be ok with it, or anything like that. Just that they're not some horrid FO by any means. I'm quite neutral on the FO, manager, etc. as I compare them to the rest of the league and see that there's much worse we can do, but also much better. My general approach to this stuff is to take risks for greatness, but I understand that in taking those risks you can also end up with way worse than we have. Some of us were having a similar chat in one of the draft prospects threads the other day. I say take the highest ceiling player at #5 instead of the "safe" guy with a higher floor. You need stars to win. Take the potential hall of famer who may never make the majors over the guy who's much more likely to reach the majors, but maxes out as a 1 time all star in his career year. I wouldn't be upset if they cleared house after this season if we don't see a couple stars developing in Kirilloff and Lewis that produces some postseason results. But I also wouldn't be upset if they don't clear house because they're on the cusp of being really good, and there's a long ways down from our current standing in Major League Baseball. It's really all about the risks you're willing to take to improve. I just like to show fans who call for heads to roll that there's definitely room to go down from where we are. Certainly still understand the desire for more, though.
  10. chpettit19
    That's simply not how things work, though. That's the point. This is how every team operates. Young guys get bounced back and forth all the time. Mike Trout was sent back to AAA even. This is a frequent occurrence. It's not the Twins doing something crazy. If the nationally touted prospects are getting sent back to AAA don't you think it's pretty reasonable that the guys in the Twins system who aren't actually that big of prospects are having the same thing happen? What's the hit rate for other organizations? What's our frame of reference for the Twins being successful in developing players? How many players for other teams "reach their ultimate potential?" I think part of the problem is our expectations. Julien is a nice enough prospect, but he's not supposed to be some star or anything. The Twins have drafted and developed more guys who make the majors than the average team under this regime. They've failed to produce stars. I'm also hoping Kirilloff and Lewis are those guys. The early reviews are quite positive. Ryan Jeffers is doing awfully well right now. Only 66% of 1st round picks ever even make the majors. I don't think the Twins are great by any means, but they're not terrible. They're just average. Which shows in their record most the time. They're able to produce MLB talent, just not above average MLB talent. Let's hope Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, and the #5 pick can produce a couple stars.
  11. chpettit19
    I mean it wouldn't be all 3 of them pitching again tonight. It'd most likely just be 1 of them, right? During a 162 game season there's almost always 1 reliever who isn't available unless you're coming off an off day. If they can't survive with 1 of those guys being unavailable Friday and Saturday they're in serious trouble.
  12. chpettit19
    I'd guess the thought was 100% getting Lopez into a low leverage situation, against a good team, and letting him get his head right, and his groove back. Didn't work. I don't think any of the relievers who threw last night are off the table tonight. Lopez threw 16 pitches. Stewart 13, De Leon 16. They should all absolutely be able to throw again tonight if they're the best option. The entire bullpen should be available tonight.
  13. chpettit19
    I haven't seen any posts "giving up on Julien already." Not clear on the Gallo comp in the 1B or DH conversation since Gallo is a cOFer who just filled in at 1B until Kirilloff was back, and when Gallo's hammy was tight. "Ability to play in the field" is part of the discussion because he may have the ability to stand out there, but he doesn't have the ability to field well. Being in the field, but fielding poorly, isn't an asset. Come on. This "love a change of scenery" argument is so extreme. Are the Twins the only team who use options to move guys to AAA? Did St Louis not send their #1 prospect, and according to some people the #1 prospect in all of baseball, down to AAA after he started the year with them? Would Jordan Walker "love a change of scenery" because of that? The team giving Steer a chance are sitting on another top 5 global prospect who's absolutely lighting the minors on fire right now, should Elly De La Cruz be demanding a trade? Go look at Brent Rooker's numbers for May. Actually, I'll just give them to you. 2 homeruns, .198/.290/.327/.616 quad-slash. He could probably use a trip to AAA. Welcome to the world of professional baseball. It's really hard to make a major league roster, and even harder to stay on one.
  14. chpettit19
    That's fair. I'm just saying you weren't getting any kind of massive difference maker for Steer and CES. Mahle was very clearly the wrong choice even if I thought it was a solid, if unspectacular, trade at the time.
  15. chpettit19
    Yeah, the Reds are really the envy of the league. Everyone tripping over themselves to get to Cincinnati to play with that juggernaut of a franchise.
  16. chpettit19
    You're not getting a better pitcher with more control for Steer and CES.
  17. chpettit19
    What do you base this on? What have you seen in their games to make you think there's better defense in there? Or is this just a shot at the Twins organization based on nothing real? It's turned out to be a bad trade, yes. It doesn't "really hurt" yet, but it could in the future. There's every bit the chance that Steer is pushed out of that IF as well by the elite prospects they have coming up. We'll see. Only time will tell who turns out to be the best between Steer, CES, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff. I'll take my chances with Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff.
  18. chpettit19
    What do the x-rays have to do with his current performance? Is the idea that his ankle is so shot right now that he's struggling to hit?
  19. chpettit19
    I never said Miranda and/or Julien didn't have defensive limitations, just said they're part of a group of players who can cover the same positions that Steer and CES do. I expect to see Miranda on the bench most of the time in that situation. I'm really confused by your point. The Twins had 8 guys (the 6 I named, plus Steer and CES) who could all play a role in covering the 3 positions in question. The Twins were willing to trade 2 of the 8. Thus the comparison I care about moving forward is how those 2 work out compared to how the 6 they didn't trade work out. Don't see the controversy there.
  20. chpettit19
    I agree part of why he's at 1B now may certainly just be roster needs, but they have a number of much better fielders coming up behind him pretty quick, and I'd guess the odds are that he is destined for far more 1B than anywhere else in the IF when the rest of this prospect wave hits. We'll see how it all turns out. Long ways to go in their careers. That trade definitely isn't going to be a win, though.
  21. chpettit19
    This article went over well...
  22. chpettit19
    No.
  23. chpettit19
    The determining factor, to me, on them haunting the Twins is what Miranda, Kirilloff, Buxton, Lewis, Julien, and Lee do over the next 6+ years. Steer is down to 1B/3B/DH. CES is down to 1B/DH. The Twins took a calculated risk that some combination of the 6 guys I named earlier would be a better overall combination at 1B/3B/DH for the Twins. Or at least that a combination of them at those positions, plus Mahle in the rotation for a year and a half, would be as good as Steer, CES, and Hajjar for 6+ years. CES has to be Nelson Cruz to be a truly haunting player. I would bet against that happening, but you never really know. That's the game you play when making trades. If Buxton is a fulltime, or most-time, DH over the next 6 years CES didn't really have a place to play here. To me, the bigger thing haunting the Twins in that scenario is Buxton being a DH. Steer has already been pushed down to having most of his time at 1B now. The bar to clear offensively for being a "haunting" player there is awfully high. I would bet against that happening as well, but he's looked good for the last month. Both of their defensive limitations lessen the likelihood that they're truly haunting losses. But Steer's current batting line sure would look nice in the Twins lineup right now. I wouldn't replace Lewis or Kirilloff with him, though.
  24. chpettit19
    I've had the same itch in the back of my mind about them being motivated by job security over best prospect when it comes to the high school kids. Or they fear a repeat of the Cavaco disaster, but that was them passing on the better HS prospect (Carroll) to grab the "helium prospect." If they pass on Clark for someone outside the top 5 and he becomes Carroll 2.0 fans are going to riot (well the really invested fans around here will write really angry posts). I'm with Jaime here. You got to jump up 8 spots (if I'm remembering correctly) and you're thinking of taking advantage of that by picking a high floor, low ceiling prospect (if the rumors are to be believed)? If that's true Pohlad better fire them in the next month. You have a chance to pick someone with an elite ceiling, don't get cute. My thought on this pick is to make it a "Brooks Lee line" decision. How many prospects in this draft would immediately become the team's #1 prospect? Is it 5? 8? 12? It sure sounds like there's 5 for sure. If it's only 5 you have to take one of the 5. If the top 5 are clearly better than him, but the second tier there'd be debate on? You have to take one of the top 5. My top 5 are the same as yours, and have the same disclaimer of not really knowing anything about them beyond what I read. But I know drafting "safe" in the top 5 is nonsense. Because there's no such thing anyways. Take an elite prospect when you're handed them on a silver platter.
  25. chpettit19
    I honestly don't have a super strong opinion one way or the other. I think they're in the middle of the FO rankings (same with Rocco as a manager). They're not spectacular, but they're not terrible. I tend to lean towards taking chances on finding the spectacular so I'd put myself mostly in the same place as you are in them needing to show something in the playoffs, but I also understand that we could be the Rockies and be run significantly worse than Falvine has done. I think they've drafted quite well overall. I think they've modernized the organization, which is huge. I think they have a decent plan for building a winner in MN with the constraints placed on them. I think they've failed at actually doing it. I think it's all sort of the same problem, though. They're average, they found an average manager, and they're really good at finding, or developing, average talent. I think the average fan wants to see more than average, though. And in order to do that you have to risk going from average to below average. It's very similar to the Kirk Cousins situation with the Vikings. Maybe not quite good enough, but you know there's far worse so how much do you want to risk to try to improve upon what you have? Winning a bad division and losing in the first round of the playoffs isn't quite good enough. But it's way better than 99, 96, 96, 92, and 103 losses in 5 of 6 seasons we just went through not that long ago. Really long answer to say I wouldn't push back on them being fired if they don't find some playoff success this year. But I'll be nervous about whoever they bring in to replace them.
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