chpettit19

The problem for baseball is that the high average guys are more entertaining, but they don't score as many runs. Power is the best way to score, and win games. There are 9 teams with 200+ runs scored so far this season. Including the top 8 teams in slugging. "Only" 6 of them are in the top 10 in BA. 80% vs 60% is rather significant. The Dodgers are 25th in BA, 2nd in HR, 3rd in slug, and 3rd in runs. The Twins are 26th in BA, 6th in HR, 15th in slug, and 10th in runs. The Nationals are 9th in BA, 29th in HR, 28th in slug, and 25th in runs. Philly is 8th in BA, 20th in HR, 11th in slug, 20th in runs. Hitting homeruns and slugging make up for a significant amount of batting average when it comes to scoring runs, because it's really hard to string multiple singles together to score chunks of runs. Last year there were 14 teams to score 700+ runs. 7 of them were in the top 10 in BA. 9 in the top 10 of HR. 10 in the top 10 in slug. The title is a little aggressive calling BA the worst offensive stat, but it's correct in that BA is a severely lacking stat, and power is how teams win. Luis Arraez is far more entertaining to watch than a low BA power bat, but his lack of power makes him need to be all-time great to be an impact back. He's got 101 more points of BA than Taylor Walls, but his being 112 points worse in slugging means he's 15 points of wRC+ worse. He's a 15% worse hitter despite being 100 points better with BA because singles simply aren't as valuable as extra base hits.

Looks like he's DH'd in 5 of 27 games according to baseball reference.

I'd cut him today. 0-3 in his first game?! Maybe he should just retire. All sarcasm aside, he definitely looked rusty at the plate in the couple ABs I watched last night. Didn't seem to have his toe tap like he had last year so he may just be working through a new timing mechanism. He's got 19 more days on his rehab assignment. I'd bet on him finding his rhythm in there and looking like last year before his IL stint is over.

From my count Falvine have made 70 trades since they took over. The vast majority are nothing trades of minor leaguers for cash or PTBNL that we never even really notice. I grade a trade as a 1 (clear win), .5 (got a little more than they gave up), 0 (all those nothing trades, or trades that were even), -.5 (got a little less than they gave up), or -1 (clear loss). The average grade I came up with was just over .04. I had 7 trades with negative grades and 11 with positive grades. I don't think they're anything to write home about, but I don't think they've been terrible either.

The package the Reds got for Castillo was significantly higher than what they got for Mahle. Like Lewis and Lee plus 2 pitchers. On mlb.com Marte is currently ranked 24th overall, Lee is 26th. Arroyo is 36th and Lewis is 37th. CES, Steer, Hajjar, and Enlow was nowhere near Marte and Arroyo in terms of value. Those packages aren't even close to the same.

I don't boo players for on field play, but I don't really cheer for them vocally either. I have no problem with fans booing home team players, though. If they can be cheered, they can be booed. It's also something they're well aware of when they sign their million dollar deals that are partly paid for by "average people" spending way too much to go watch these guys play a game. As some have mentioned, fans can "boo" louder with their money by not showing up, but a fan paying to attend a game comes with some "perks," and one of those "perks" is to be able to vocalize their feelings about both teams. Now there are definitely lines that should never be crossed, but I don't think booing is one of those lines. I don't recall any Twins players really asking for cheers or anything, but I know the Twolves have "called out" their fans before, and said they need to be louder. There's an expectation that fans are loud, and help provide the atmosphere that drives peak performance. Well if you want them to cheer, you better be willing to accept some boos. It's not fun, and I'm sure it's not easy. The vast majority of players work incredibly hard at their craft. But this is what they signed up for. They chose the entertainment industry. It comes with both good (millions of dollars, and playing a game for a living), and bad (boos).

Arbitration eligible.

If he had 6 homeruns robbed it'd be pretty exciting.

I think Rowson is an awesome example of how coaches don't really matter that much. They matter, but not nearly as much as people suggest. The idea being that Rowson was the key to the Twins hitting success in the late 20teens. He then went to Miami, and they were the worst offense in baseball before they let him go this offseason. Now he's with Detroit, who's scored the 3rd fewest runs in baseball. Right above the Marlins. MLB coaches are mostly just scapegoats for MLB front offices, but the truth is the talent of the players is all that really matters. If you build a terrible lineup like Miami had while Rowson was there they won't score. If you build a really good lineup like the Twins had while he was here they're going to score.

It's a little tough to judge true timelines. Like Maeda was technically well over 12 months, but that's because the Twins were out of it at his 12 month mark, and then he had all offseason tacked on. They're expecting Paddack to be physically ready in August or September this year after his 2nd one which is supposed to be significantly longer. I don't expect him to be effective immediately, but he's going to have to pitch, and he's not going to do it in the minors. But, to me, that's more reason to question an extension with him. You have to give him starts next year to work through things so that he's worked off the rust before 2025, but this team better be expecting to compete in 2024. I don't want Mahle getting starts if they have 6 or 7 other guys worthy who aren't working off TJ rust when they're trying to win a division. Plus, everyone I already named is under contract through at least 2025. So where's his spot in 2025? I wouldn't close the door on an extension by any means, but if you're going into 2024 with, hopefully, 5 to 7 of Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober, Varland, Headrick, SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa, "random prospect who it clicks for this year" in line for starts you'd expect to have all of them still available in 2025, plus whatever guys (Raya, Prielipp?) start establishing themselves in 2024 you have even less space for Mahle. But all of that is based on there being 5 to 7 guys looking ready for next season's rotation. That's why I don't close the door. Maybe SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa, Varland, and Ober all fail in some capacity this year. Mahle would be a really nice fallback option there. But I'll give these young guys until August to see if they're claiming their spots before I look to extend Mahle.

I mean you'd expect him back pitching well before the all-star break next year. He's not a guy you'd send to AAA until there's an opening in the rotation, once he's ready he'll expect to be back on a big league mound. Early July would be the latest I'd expect him back. If there's no open rotation spot, and they're 7 deep to start the year there's nowhere to put Mahle. This is still plenty early in the season that he'll expect to be in a big league rotation for at least half of next season.

Brutal. I liked the trade at the time, but it has not turned out well at all. Wouldn't be surprised if they tried to do a creative extension with him, but I don't know how quick I'd be about doing it. If Ober can stay healthy and throw 120+ innings (really big if) this year, and/or Varland continues to perform, and anyone from the SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa group show they're ready for a real shot next year there may not be room for Mahle coming off TJ next year. Lopez, Ryan, Paddack likely have rotation spots locked up for next year. If Varland and Ober claim the other 2 there's really no room for Mahle. If Gray is back on an extension, or accepting the QO, there's really, really no room for Mahle. Certainly would have an extension offer in my back pocket, but wouldn't be jumping on it too quickly. Give the young guys a chance to see if The Pipeline™ is ready to start flowing.

There was a really good article (I feel bad because I can't remember if it was by Gleeman or Hayes) at the beginning of the year about how Correa "tested" Popkins early to see if he was worthy. Lots of reports that Correa put in a good word on Popkins, through Boras, to Gallo, and Popkins was a large part of the reason Gallo signed here. Gordon gives Popkins a ton of credit for his breakout last year. These are just the reports/articles I remember. I don't think it's a question of respecting Popkins. Correa doesn't seem shy about letting the FO know what he thinks about anything. I'd guess if he didn't trust Popkins the FO would know and they'd have made a move over the offseason. Now, none of that means he's doing a good job right now (I don't know if he is or isn't), but I don't think it has anything to do with his age, or players being willing to accept his help. These guys have millions of dollars on the line, and they're not shy about voicing their opinions. If a coach isn't trusted in a clubhouse they're removed pretty quick.

There were multiple articles at the start of the season about the work Popkins did with Correa on his swing last year, the time he spent with Gallo over the offseason, and how the players really liked his ability to adapt to each individual player, and their specific body movements. I don't know near enough about the swing mechanics of these guys to know if it's a swing problem, or "simply" an approach problem that appears pretty clear to me, and I think many fans. The Twins have multiple hitting coaches. I don't know what all their specific roles are, and I'm generally against calling for people to lose their jobs, although I understand being a coach at the top level of any sport is typically a very short lived situation, unless you're great. From the outside, Popkins would seem to be the most likely scapegoat if the offense doesn't figure things out quickly. Is the internal expectation that Popkins is "just" the swing mechanics guy while other coaches are the approach guys? Is Popkins pushing for a different approach, but the players just don't agree? Is he pushing for a different approach, and the players just aren't good enough to execute it? Very hard, if not impossible, to judge any of that from the outside. But it likely doesn't matter as eventually it just comes down to the lineup performing or not. And for the last week+ it has been resoundingly not performing. I think, in general, the impact of coaches/managers in baseball is overstated. People are on these boards constantly asking for James Rowson to come back despite the teams he's been with since he left being the 2 worst scoring teams in baseball (Miami and Detroit). Hitting coaches aren't some magical wizards who can make bad hitters suddenly be good hitters. It's so hard to judge what's simply talent limitations, and what's coaching. But things are bad right now, and the expectations from the owners this season absolutely need to be a dominance of a terrible division, and playoff wins. I don't know if that's what the Pohlads are thinking, but it's what the fan base is thinking. And everyone from coaches to the FO should all be on the hot seat this year. It's make or break time, and they've been breaking for a week. They should all be feeling the pressure at this point. Edit to add: In fairness to Popkins, and the players, the Twins did score 46 runs in 8 games (5.75 runs/game), while scoring 6 or more in 6 of those 8 games, from April 23rd through April 30th. The week since has been atrocious. But they were very good for an equal amount of time not long ago.

I think Solano was always a place holder for Lewis. I don't think they ever expected him to be on the team for much, if any, of June. He's actually hitting the ball well (highest avg exit velo of his career), and has an xBA in the 89th percentile. He's basically been the same guy he has been for years, but he's hitting it at guys. I don't think he's long for the roster, though. I'll be surprised if he's still on the roster come June.

The offense could certainly use Arraez, but the team he's currently on has scored the fewest runs in baseball even with him hitting darn near .500. Mike Trout's teams never make the playoffs. Really shows how little 1 hitter impacts a team. A starting pitcher has significantly higher impact on those games he pitches every 5 days than a hitter has in any game they play. It's an interesting debate, but breaking it down to simply "every 5 days" vs "everyday" ignores the impact those players have on those individual games. Sandy Alcantara faced 886 batters last year. Marcus Semien had 724 PAs. Those were the league leaders. The difference then comes down to fielding. Fielders take the lead in plays impacted because of that, but if they're a bad fielder they're hurting the team by being involved so much on defense. It's a really interesting debate. Position players impact the team more over the course of the season, but it's not by much, and they're easier to find than impact pitching.

Nick's problem will always be his ability to lay off pitches he shouldn't swing at. League average chase rate is 28.4%. His is 39%. League average swing% is 47.1. His is 58.2%. Simply put, he swings too much. Same problem Miranda used to have, and seems to have again this season. When you'll swing at pitches you shouldn't pitchers have no reason to challenge you, and you see fewer and fewer good pitches to hit. Nick makes contact on 63% of the pitches he chases, but it's hard to hit those balls well. Same with Miranda. If either, or both, of them learn to be patient they could be really good players. Until then they'll continue to be inconsistent despite some stretches where they really pound the ball. Their careers hang on their swing decisions.

Yeah, I'm not saying right away, but long-term role. Right now the most likely immediate spot for him is looking like 3B unless Miranda gets himself straightened out before the end of the month.

James Rowson was let go by that offensive juggernaut known as the Miami Marlins over the offseason, and is now employed by the 2nd lowest scoring team (Miami is the lowest scoring team) the Detroit Tigers. But, to his credit, his team is currently striking out in .4% fewer PAs than the Twins.

It's going to be interesting to see what they do with Lewis. I'm a supporter of him being the new MAT, and starting in CF the majority of the time now that Buxton seems to be a long ways from being an everyday CFer. I think Lee is actually the one who takes 3B. Miranda may end up being the backup 1B/3B moving forward. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do with everyone.

Lewis is now in Wichita on a rehab assignment. He's playing SS and 3B to start, but they haven't ruled out the OF in the future. I'd think Miranda should be hearing footsteps at this point as Lewis started his rehab stint Saturday (if I'm remembering correctly) and only gets 20 days. So the Lewis decision will come before the end of May. I'd think if he's mashing, and playing everyday. by the end of the month, and Miranda is still swinging at everything, Miranda will be replaced by Lewis at 3B. Edit: I was wrong, they announced Sunday that he'll start his rehab on Thursday. So they have 20 days from Thursday which puts them at the last day of May if my math is correct.

Pull percentage is the number of balls he put in play that were pulled. It's nothing complicated, just breaking the field into 3 sections (pull, middle, oppo) and tracking where players hit the ball. His career numbers with his average at the bottom: There has absolutely been an attempt by him to go the opposite way, or back through the middle, more. I don't remember exactly when it became a big talking point, though. He's always been pull heavy (league average this year is 36.8 pull, 37.7 straight, 25.4 oppo), and likely always will be. His swing is just very stiff, and it ends up leading to a lot of popups, or grounders. I was just pointing out that he has by no means gotten away from attempting to go up the middle, or the other way, since 2019. It's interesting that his most pull heavy season was his best season, but I don't think anyone expects him to hit 30 homers a year again, so being as pull heavy now likely isn't a great option.

Kepler had a pull percentage of 50.8 in 2019. Highest of his career. He was at 42.6, 41.9, and 41.7 the last 3 seasons.

But my argument is Nick isn't good enough to do it. You disagree, and that's all good. Sano to RF is also an example of a player switching positions to get a better lineup. That's why I point out their difference in talent. I don't think Gordon at 3B is Sano in RF, but it's also not Mookie anywhere. That's why I don't like the comparison. I'm excited to see Kirilloff. I think him and Lewis are the keys to this team taking the next step. I fully expect Kirilloff to be a star. And I hope I'm wrong about Larnach to AAA being a fix. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I'm happy to have Alex back.

Larnach to AAA (don't like it), Kirilloff to MLB.