chpettit19

I know he adjusted his swing a little this offseason/spring to account for his wrist, so it may just be that, and not his wrist hurting again, but he's making worse contact this year than in the 2 previous years when we know his wrist was hurting him for large chunks of the time. I'm not convinced the wrist is healthy, or that he fully trusts it. His swings look far less aggressive now, and he's simply not hitting the ball well. Barrell%, average exit velo, max exit velo, and hard hit% all at career lows in pretty similar batted ball amounts. If this is "full strength," Kirilloff isn't the answer, unfortunately.

For sure, but if we're looking for improving the overall problem of high Ks while hunting slugging at the major league level I don't think that promoting someone else who's going to push the same strategy is truly the answer. The Saints also have a number of major leaguers facing AAA pitching. Kind of expected that they'd perform well down there.

Because their norm isn't good enough. You're misinterpreting what I'm saying. I don't have rose colored glasses. I've been saying since the start of the year that there wasn't enough talent on the offense. They're lacking true impact hitters. But the post I replied to suggested that every free agent signing was performing worse than they had in previous years. That isn't true. They aren't. They're performing almost exactly how they always have. There's a difference between not being good enough (what I'm arguing is the case) and performing worse than they had previously (what the other post claimed).

They've improved their talent. They added an MVP candidate to their lineup, and gotten Marte back. Adding 2 studs to your lineup tends to lead to improvement in run scoring.

Do you believe the organization is preaching different things in the minors than the majors? Especially at AAA? They're already being molded to the team's way of doing things. The Saints strike out a ton. Half their roster strikes out at basically 30% or higher clips. They just happen to bring more power with the K's down there. I agree that there's little chance the coaching staff drastically changes their approach this year, but changing coaching staffs midway through the season isn't going to fix the overall problem either. Who are you hiring midseason that can come in and drastically change things?

The Saints have 13 hitters with at least 100 PAs this year. 6 of them have K% of 29.7 or higher. A 7th at 27.9%. If you're hoping to fix the strikeout problem I think the hitting coach in St Paul is not a good place to start. Assuming we're blaming the hitting coach in Minneapolis for the K problems.

While I don't disagree that it's probably time for Popkins to go, that bolded sentence is wrong. Gallo, Farmer, and MAT are hitting at basically their career norms/expectations with a slight dip from last year for Farmer and MAT, but within acceptable variance range. Vazquez has been much worse. Solano has been better than last year, and at about his norm since 2019. Castro is having the best year of his career, outside of 2020.

Kenta was solid again today. So that's fun.

Enlow is the one that comes to mind to me, but I'd be good with letting him settle in at AAA a few more starts and trying one of the other guys first. I'm just ready to take chances on a higher ceiling. This thread is about Pagan, but I'm even talking the team in general. It feels like we've hit the ceiling. For multiple years now. It's time to try some options who's ceiling's we aren't 100% positive on yet.

I don't know enough about the system, but I'd be looking internally just as much, and not waiting on just the waiver wire. I think the biggest disconnect with many fans and the FO is that we define "intriguing" differently than them. My level for what it'd take to be intrigued enough to replace him is very clearly lower than the FO's level.

I certainly understand that thought process, but I'd move on to guys not on the 40-man. We know his ceiling, and it's not good enough. Let's give someone else a chance to see if they can have a higher ceiling. If you're going to go with the theory that bullpen arms can be found year to year by churning through them and finding the guy who has it that year (it's how they found Stewart) then you have to be willing to churn through them. He's churn worthy to me.

Jeren Kendall, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, JT Ginn, Carter Stewart, Matthew Libertore, Shea Langeliers, Braden Shewmake, Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Greg Jones, Jared Shuster, Bobby Miller, Nick Bitsko. Those are the 1st round picks for the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays between 2017 and 2020 (so guys we should expect to be in the majors by now if they're really good). Wright is big time (and was a high pick), Busch is looking nice (wasn't a high pick), and the rest are a mix between "will never see the majors" and "ceiling of a solid regular." No, the draft isn't just throwing darts, but it's pretty close. These are the teams you're claiming are superior in drafting. Is drafting well important? Of course it is. But you're proving my point by admitting it's not just about having high picks, but actually being good at it. Is your argument that the Twins are good at it so being high is extra good? If so then ok, sound theory as far as drafting goes. But, as you point out, there's way more things you have to be good at to have a good team. And if the Twins aren't good at those things they're doomed anyways. None of what you said changes the fact that being bad isn't some automatic ticket to being good. Especially when you're actively trying to be good, and failing at it. At that point, being bad is likely an automatic ticket to being bad for longer. See: Royals, Tigers, Rockies, Pirates (all have been attempting to be good, failing, getting high picks, and continuing to be bad). Getting high picks doesn't suddenly make a team well run, or a FO good. But none of this really has anything to do with the idea that "there's a difference between 'prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs,' and 'happy just making the playoffs.'" You claimed it's "Minnesotan" to be "happy just making the playoffs." That's not what the other poster said. They said they'd rather make the playoffs than not. You then argued that that's the wrong stance, and they should want to miss the playoffs for better draft positioning, which lead us here. But that's not the point of my original comment. My original comment is that you changed the idea of what the other poster was saying. Just being happy making the playoffs is not the same as preferring to make the playoffs than miss the playoffs. They're fundamentally different ideas. Whether you think their stance is correct or not wasn't the point. The point was you changed what was being said. I also prefer they make the playoffs to not making the playoffs (in part because of what we've discussed since), but that doesn't mean I'm "happy just making the playoffs." Getting swept out of the playoffs doesn't make me happy. But it makes me happier than being the Tigers or Royals or Rockies and not making the playoffs at all. There's a difference between those 2 thoughts. That was my original point.

This is most definitely my biggest fear for him. His body has been telling him "no" pretty frequently for his whole career, and I'm concerned it may be giving him his final "no" in real time. I just really hope that's not the case. He deserves better.

If there was a higher correlation between draft picks positioning, or even first round success rates overall, then I'd buy that. But the draft is such a crap shoot that it doesn't actually work that way in reality. The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, etc. never pick high, but they're always good. The Rockies, Pirates, Royals, etc. always pick high, but they're always bad. So I disagree with your macro argument all together. And I'd argue this team should/could be up-and-coming if they'd make different (better?) decisions on their down-and-going players. If the Twins had made the playoffs last year they'd have less of a need for the #5 pick since they'd be a more talented team. Being less talented isn't an automatic way to become more talented. Being more talented is.

A little surprised not to see Lee headed to the futures game. He's not exactly lighting AA on fire, but would have guessed he'd be someone they targeted. Totally possible they had too many IFers from other squads so he didn't fit (I haven't checked the rosters to see who made it). I really enjoy that game, and look forward to seeing what Festa can do against some big names.

More than fair points. I don't really know what the right answer is. Probably isn't one. No matter what they do there's going to be corners of fandom, and the internet, that light everyone involved on fire. I just hope we get to see the real Buxton again someday.

The entire situation is frustrating. I don't know of anyone who isn't frustrated by at least part of it. We all know what Buxton can do in CF, and what his peak is as an overall player. Not being able to see it is incredibly frustrating for us. I can't imagine the frustration Buxton himself is going through. I just know everyone involved with the Twins wants Buxton to be Buxton as much, or more, than any of us here. I don't know what's wrong with his knee, and don't really need to. I know if he could play he would. The only thing that more info could clear up for me is if I need to start preparing myself to never see peak Buxton again. Is this a degenerative thing? Is it something that likely won't ever be truly fixed? Is this the end? My concern is no longer for 2023. It's for 2024 and beyond. But I wouldn't expect the team to come out and tell us Buxton's knee is toast, and this is what he is moving forward. Not just from the PR side of things, but for the human side of things. Buxton has to be struggling enough with all this that I don't see what good comes from telling fans he's toast. While our TD community is by and large very respectful, not all fans are. Why put anything extra on Buxton right now than you have to? I just hope they're open to shutting him down this year if that's what it'd take to get him right for 2024 instead of risking future seasons in the name of him limping through this one.

Keeping Pagan was a move I never would've made this offseason. No idea why they did it. Keeping Pagan as we get deeper into the season is a move I'd never make. No idea why they're going to do it. But Pagan was useful for the first 3 months of the season. He pitched well far more often than he pitched poorly. But he's done nothing but confirm that he can't be trusted in big spots. That's not a guy you can take into the second half of the year. You thought you could get more out of him. You did, in low leverage spots. It's time to start weeding out the guys you can't trust in the heat of a pennant race, or any possible playoff appearance. If you can't trust them in big spots, you need to get rid of them, and find someone you can trust. Pagan hasn't been bad overall this year, but he's established he won't be good when he's truly needed. It's time to move on. He's one of a handful of guys it's time to move on from. And it's undoubtedly late enough in the season to start moving on. Time for the FO to start making moves. Trades aren't super likely right now, but internal promotions are absolutely possible. Time to raise the ceiling on this season.

This is where I'm at. Have the established it? No. Are they close? Maybe. This deadline, and next offseason, will speak volumes as to where they're at. If I'm the Pohlads, I tell them they're not allowed to make any big trades this deadline. You've been here long enough, and it's time to sink or swim with your system. If you can't swim with your guys this year you aren't the ones to patch the holes in the offseason. It's time to open the valve, and see what comes out of the pipeline.

There's a difference between "prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs," and "happy just making the playoffs."

I think St Louis would be looking for significantly more ceiling in the return for the reigning MVP.

Welcome to Twins Daily! Coming out firing on the first post. Respect is the #1 thing around here, so we like to avoid statements like "Mathe (his name is Mahle, FYI) is a joke," so please find other ways to voice your displeasure in the future. You are not alone in your frustrations with Mahle, and that trade, so definitely feel free to voice those concerns, but please avoid name calling, and disrespect when doing so. What is your reasoning for thinking we'll never see Paddack? You're not the first person to suggest that, but I'm curious why you think that when he's already throwing bullpens, and is set to return to the team this season in a likely bullpen role in September. That extension is going to look awfully bad if he doesn't pitch at all the next 2 years we have him signed for.

Goldy is absolutely the type of player that this team is missing. And I'd be willing to give up quite a bit to get a year and a half of him. I'm not sure I really think the Cards are selling, though. At least not him or Arenado. They aren't really a franchise that does true rebuilds. They reload. And, even if they do sell those sorts of big bats, they need pitching. I don't see the Twins as a good fit as they don't really have young, controllable pitching that is good enough to bring back an MVP type bat. SWR, Jordy Blaze, Winder, etc. aren't the types of guys the Cards would want. So I don't really see a good trade match here. Even if I'd love Goldy on this team.

He's still fast. Not sure he's quite as fast, but he's definitely still fast.

66% of first round picks reach the majors. The Twins are at 4 of 9 right now, with a couple too new to really be expected have reached yet. I'd say they're 4 for 6 right now. The idea behind Sabato was that he was going to be quick moving as a "polished" college bat. So he's a miss. Cavaco is on the edge of his timeline as a high school pick, but since he looks like he has no chance of ever reaching the bigs he counts as a miss to me. So they're right at league average. Nothing great, but nothing terrible. I would also have Lewis over Lee at this point. By a pretty wide margin, too. The biggest thing this FO needs out of this group is a star or 2. Lewis looks like he's on his way, and we all hope for it with Lee. But I agree with others that taking the Rooker, Wallner, Sabato types is not my favorite strategy. Just such limited ways for them to impact the game. Those were later picks so it's not as bad, but I still prefer homerun swings on toolsy players at the top of the draft. I'll take a 33% hit rate if those hits are 5 tool stars over a 66% hit rate on MLB average regulars.