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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Totally fair. I think that's just saying fans need to chill on manager decisions, though. We have a tendency to just assume that if they'd made the opposite decision the results would have been opposite. Who's to say Snell wouldn't have gotten lit up if he'd stayed in? Or that Familia wouldn't have gotten lit up if he went in? Mo lost a game 7 for the Yankees. Joe Nathan gave up the big ARod bomb. Mo also blew game 4 against the Sox. The best laid plans go wrong all the time. And having them go wrong doesn't mean a different decision would've gone right. But humans have this weird need to blame people when things don't go the way they like. Which allows us all to form wonderful communities like TD, so I guess it's not all bad ☺️
  2. chpettit19
    So? The numbers matter after the 7th, but not before? You want to be in the scout side of the scout vs analyst debate, why does the inning matter? They went with the scout side and ignored the numbers side and they got bit.
  3. chpettit19
    What about the Mets not following the numbers and taking Matt Harvey out in game 5? That didn't work out so well, did it?
  4. chpettit19
    How many more fastballs do leadoff hitters see? How many more strikes do 9 hole hitters see? How about guys hitting in front of the team's best hitters? Do teams really attack a hitter differently if he's in the leadoff spot as opposed to the 3 hole? If I know you can't hit a slider (MLB teams know that kind of stuff) I'm not going to say "oh dang, he's hitting leadoff today, better throw him the fastball he mashes instead of the slider." I don't know the stats to the first 3 questions I asked, but I'd guess they're all way more dependent on the hitter than the lineup spot. And, the "lineup protection" myth has been debunked for a long time. Pitchers actually work harder to get the guy out in front of a star. Throwing them fastballs just to avoid walking them isn't what happens.
  5. chpettit19
    Oh, I don't think his .738 OPS against righties is indicative of who he is as a hitter, I just think the proximity of his OPS against lefties shows that there's not this big discrepancy in his ability against lefties and righties. He was hurt while facing both handedness pitchers, and performed so closely against both that I don't get why the Twins feel they need to platoon him at all (outside of a little extra rest for his wrist). I just don't put any weight at all on his 16 PAs against lefties this year. I'll take the lack of platoon splits over the much larger sample size over a sample size that can have his BA swing 200 points with just 3 hits. I'd guess the Twins argument for platooning the young guys is to put them in the most advantageous positions as possible early to get them comfortable, and their confidence high. But I'd rather them get ABs and work to fix holes in their games that become present by seeing how pitchers attack them. I don't expect to see them change soon, either, though. There's literally no non-injury excuse I'd accept for pinch hitting Kepler for Lewis. I'd let some TD posters hit over Kepler at this point!
  6. chpettit19
    I'm a fan of platooning certain players, but not the guys you expect/hope to be your stars. If Kirilloff, or Julien, can't hit lefties, they aren't stars. 16 PAs are completely useless as a sample size. 1 extra hit in there jumps his BA from .154 to .230. 2 extra hits puts him at .308. 16 PAs show literally nothing about his ability to hit lefties. For his MLB career he has 117 PAs against lefties. He has a .707 OPS against them. Definitely nothing to write home about, but when compared to his career .738 OPS against righties it sure doesn't look like he is "a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers." If you have to pinch hit for someone in the top 4 of your lineup, they shouldn't be in the top 4 of your lineup. I'd actually prefer a top 5 that is "platoon proof," but let's just get to 4 guys and go from there. Stop pinch hitting for your hoped for stars.
  7. chpettit19
    Who can hit better?
  8. chpettit19
    FYI, there were 79 qualified hitters in all of baseball in 2022 that hit .250 or better. It's time to start changing your perception on hitting. You've been left behind.
  9. chpettit19
    I don't disagree here at all, but you'd definitely be depleting the wave of position players during a time when the position players are the weakness on your team. Right now, if you believe in Varland, and think Paddack can be solid when he comes back, you've got a full rotation, and you have to be able to provide the depth behind it with your minor leaguers. But, right now, you have a lineup that is struggling to score runs consistently, and trading a healthy Polanco, plus Miranda, would put them in an even tougher spot with the offense. I like both Burnes, and Woodruff, but Burnes' numbers have been declining for a couple years so I'm not sure I'd want to go too crazy in going after him when the weakness on the team is offense, not pitching. But I definitely agree that the return you get in a trade effects whether or not you deplete you overall talent level. I'd just prefer to hold onto the prospects, and not deplete the young, inexpensive talent anymore since that's the key to this organization being able to be sustainably good. You trade too many young guys, for too many veterans, and your ability to fill holes declines exponentially. Whether the veterans turn out to be useful or not. There's only so much money the Pohlads are going to be willing to spend. If you trade too many prospects from 1 wave you leave yourself with a top heavy team, and the Jake Caves, and Kyle Garlicks, of the world needing to fill vital spots. I don't want that.
  10. chpettit19
    I don't see them trading Miranda this year. It'd be an awfully quick turn to go from clearing out an opening day spot for him to shipping him out. There's a lot of moving pieces in this puzzle. Buxton (DH vs CF), Julien (2B vs 1B vs DH vs cOF maybe?), Lewis (how long is he locked at 3B vs moving to 2B vs OF), Lee (how long til he's ready, and where does he play in the majors), Kirilloff (do they want to lock him in at 1B), Larnach (is he going to claim a cOF spot or leave it open for a Kirilloff move), Wallner (same as Larnach), Kepler (will they ever move on), Polanco (can he stay healthy and will they trade him). A lot of factors here. The "next wave" of prospects is arriving now. They've already moved Steer and CES. Are they really going to move Miranda, too? You can only move so many members of a wave before you deplete your wave so much that it can't provide you sustainable winning. I think they let things settle a bit, and see who really claims a big league role, and then they see how those pieces fit.
  11. chpettit19
    This is where I'm at, too. People talk like it's just a given that any of these young guys are going to step in and be 4 (nearly 5) win players (what Polanco has been since 2019). I'm not sold at all on that. But if he can't stay healthy then he's not a 4 win player (as seen by him being a 3 win player last year). It's a really tough spot. One of the few truly tough decisions this front office has to make if he comes back healthy, and mashing again.
  12. chpettit19
    I definitely agree with that. I'm crossing my fingers Correa gives him the green light soon.
  13. chpettit19
    Is there any recent evidence that they are healthy enough to do that? Dude, I get it, you want Buxton in CF. So do the Twins. There are 30 MLB POBO jobs in the world. There are 30 MLB manager jobs in the world. You don't think those guys want to be able to put their best player in CF instead of at DH? You think they have evidence that he can do it, but they just won't do it? You have no evidence his knees can handle that. You don't get to accuse people who don't think he can handle it of acting like they've medically evaluated him then turn around and make your own claims about his health as if you're medically evaluated him and not be called out on it. You're making every bit of a medical assumption as anyone else.
  14. chpettit19
    Isn't your stance that it's time for him to go back out there you speaking as if you've evaluated Buxton yourself? That knife cuts both ways.
  15. chpettit19
    Well just last year the Twins went 2-1 in Oakland, and 2-1 in Seattle. So I guess last year was when the Twins played well on the west coast against those 2 teams.
  16. chpettit19
    I wasn't even commenting on that, but if his knee is why he isn't playing CF I'm not sure what his ribs have to do with the situation. I was just poking fun at your assertion that Carlos Correa is the one making the decision on where Byron Buxton plays.
  17. chpettit19
    I'm sure they're all in the conference room at Target Field asking Correa if it's ok right now...
  18. chpettit19
    Interesting thought there. Are there any reports that he's even been shagging balls or anything during pregame activities? My guess would be that this IL stint is every bit as much about his knee as it is his ribs. Would make some sense to get him off that knee for a little extra time, and then see how he's feeling and maybe look at him as a CF option here and there when he's back. Would certainly make all of us feel a little better about things.
  19. chpettit19
    The Twins actually have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball according to some metrics. If you just go by winning percentage of opponents they have the 3rd easiest schedule left. Their remaining opponents have a combined .479 winning percentage so far this year. The argument that it only gets tougher is factually incorrect. Not even July is harder. They have 12 games against teams well under .500 in July. That's half their games in July against teams way under .500.
  20. chpettit19
    Would you "force Buxton to play CF" even if the medical staff is telling you his knee isn't right, and putting him out there likely leads to his season ending, and possible/probable problems for years to come?
  21. chpettit19
    Dang it, Jamie, can't you let a guy have his dreams?
  22. chpettit19
    To be fair to Yelich, he had 2 otherworldly years after having been very good for years. That contract is not looking great, but if you have a guy win an MVP, then come in 2nd the next year, you don't really expect them to be a .750 OPS guy moving forward. 112, 115, 118, 135, 120 OPS+ in his Miami years followed by going to a better power park and going off for 164 and 179 OPS+ marks definitely didn't suggest he'd go 110, 101, 110, 109 in his prime. If you give me back to back years of 1.000+ OPS I'll absolutely sign you to a deal through your age 36 season that never tops 26 mil a year.
  23. chpettit19
    Chase Davis is someone on my radar at 34. It may just be because his swing reminds me of CarGo, and I'm a sucker for pretty swings, but I see him in the 25-35 range in most rankings, and think he could be a high ceiling guy if he can stick in CF.
  24. chpettit19
    FYI, Gallo would not be eligible to receive a QO if he's traded. You have to be on the same team all year to qualify now. I agree he's a dark horse candidate, but the only way a QO plays into a Gallo trade is if the Twins feel they would place one on him they'd have a bench mark of how good of a return they'd need. It'd be all about whether they think he'll get $50 mil on the open market this offseason or not. If they think he will they'd set their asking price at a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a 1st round comp pick. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they'd be asking for a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a pick after the 2nd round. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they probably aren't looking at placing a QO on him unless they really want him back for around $20 mil next year. I'd say the chances he gets a QO are pretty small as of today, but a lot can change in the next month and a half before the deadline.
  25. chpettit19
    You mean his 508 professional innings pitched lead you to believe he'll never pitch again? You realize how incredibly out there it is to claim a 27 year old is simply never going to be able to pitch again because he had a second Tommy John surgery 6 years after his first one, right? I know Verlander is a freak, but he came back at the age of 39 and pitched again after his 2nd TJS just last year when he won that little award they call the Cy Young. Mike Clevinger is back on a mound after his 2nd. The Rangers are really hoping deGrom comes back from his 2nd since they owe him a whole lot of money. Nathan Eovaldi is slicing up big league hitters, and he's had 2 TJS. Chris Capuano, Joakim Soria, Daniel Hudson, and the list goes on and on. Many of those guys had their surgeries 5, 10, 15+ years ago. We've made even more advancements in medicine since most of those guys went through it. I get if you want to argue he may not be as good coming back from his second surgery, or they shouldn't really rely on him as a rotation option next year. There's some arguments that could be made there. But to suggest he'll never pitch again is based on nothing. He's throwing off a mound now. He's on pace to join the team by the end of the year. How good will he be? Up for debate. Will he ever pitch again? I mean let's be serious, of course he's going to pitch again.
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