chpettit19

The .500 roller coaster has been on a down slope for quite a while. That's more of what I was talking about. They got off to a very nice start, but have been playing at a well below .500 mark for some time now. So when I say "play markedly better" I'm referring to their stretch since May 1 when they've gone 19-25. Or, as Gleeman just tweeted a couple hours ago, their last 162 games they're 73-89. But I agree that sticking around .500 gives them a shot at the division.

Yes, they were. But so were JP Crawford, Orlando Arcia, Yoan Moncada, Joey Gallo, Brendan Rogers, Lewis Brinson, Nomar Mazara, and Austin Meadows. Those guys were all in the top 20 overall global prospects on MLB.com going into the 2016 season. They've had varying degrees of success in the majors. That's why I said they weren't devoid of talent, but you can't expect to hit on all those players. It was a nice group of young players, but the expectation shouldn't have been that they all hit their peaks by any means. We can also get into how much credit this FO deserves for finishing their development. There's a lot of grey area, and semantics in here. Do we count Kepler and Polanco as "talent" in the system if they weren't actually seen as that talented? If this FO got more out of them than expected do we give them credit, or knock them for the guys already being there? I wouldn't add Rogers or May to the list of "talent" in the system outside of them already having been in it. Rogers didn't take off until the new staff taught him his slider. As you note, May didn't take off until the new regime got there either. If we're going to "blame them" for not getting Pressly to the heights Houston has (not saying you do, just in general) then we should give them credit for being the ones to help pull out better performance from these guys. Not an easy thing to really make too hard of statements on. I agree they had some clay to mold, but it certainly wasn't a sizeable group of massive talent. They didn't have nothing, but they weren't taking over a juggernaut. Do I think they've maximized the situation? Absolutely not.

Walk a football field. Then jog a football field. Tell me if it's the same amount of work or not.

That's what I said. If they win a playoff series it gets them points with me. Whether or not that flips me from "fire" to "not fire" depends on how it all plays out. But I don't think we should pretend that October doesn't mean significantly more than the regular season. And, if they're going to win the division (even this terrible one), and a playoff series, they're going to have to play markedly better baseball. They're not doing either of those things playing this way. So it's kind of implied in the idea of accomplishing those goals that they improve their play. It's a requirement, really. The question is then how much they improve, and if that changes minds on the FO.

Except you have said, repeatedly, that if he's capable of running the bases (or DHing) he should automatically be capable of playing CF. So, sure, we can put that talking point to rest, but it's because you've repeatedly said that if he can do one he can do the other. Thus implying pretty clearly that they're the same. You can try to wiggle out of it semantically all you want, but that's been your stance. If he can DH he can play CF. And if he can't play CF then he's injured and can't DH. There's no debating that that's been your stance. You called their claim that he can do 1, but not the other, "nonsensical." That's not acknowledging they're different, sorry. If you acknowledge that the physical requirements for playing CF, and DHing are different then you don't need to continue to be confused on why he's doing 1, but not the other. You've explained it right there. You need to be able to handle doing different things to do those 2 activities. He's capable of doing the requirements of DHing. He's not capable of doing the requirements of playing CF. So he's DHing, but not playing CF. He's clearly not helping the team right now while he's buried in this horrendous slump. He's been hurt this entire year. Capable of doing 1 set of activities, but not the other. Was he hurting the team in March and April when he had an OPS of .881? He had an .808 OPS as late as May 26th. Was he too injured, and hurting the team and himself then? He couldn't play CF then, but he could hit, and was hitting. He's terrible right now, and I have no idea why they keep hitting him at the top of the order. But none of this has been your stance. Your stance was it's "nonsensical" to suggest he can DH, but not play CF. And if he can't play CF then he's automatically injured and shouldn't play at all. Is your argument just that he came of the IL too soon? Cuz otherwise it doesn't really make much sense.

It's all about October, though, isn't it? If they're winning 95+ games every year, and getting swept out of the playoffs every year, would most of us be preaching patience, and not getting too wrapped up in single game(s) results? There's some playoff losing streak I've heard about a time or 2 that makes me think things change when the calendar flips to October.

They weren't "devoid of talent," but they weren't exactly overflowing with it, either. Guys in the system, or on the 2016 Twins that I think anyone would've really expected to be any good moving forward: Position players: Buxton Sano Kepler Polanco Rosario Dozier Escobar (had been basically league average for 2 years) 5 of those guys were 22, 23, or 24 (Rosario), and either started the year rookie eligible, or had just graduated in 2015. Was there hope with them? For sure. Is it reasonable to expect to hit on 100% of any prospect wave? Absolutely not. So you have 29 year old Dozier established, 27 year old Escobar showing he's an average player, and 5 guys you're hoping to get 3 or 4 everyday guys out of. So 5 or 6 position players. Not great, but pretty solid if you can hit on most of those prospects. Pitchers: Berrios Duffey? (still a starter at that point at age 25) Pressly That's not an impressive list of MLB ready arms. Berrios, Jay, Gonzalves, Stewart, and Burdi were their top 5 pitching prospects entering 2016 (according to MLB.com which is just easiest for me to search right now). Entering 2017 it was Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, Stewart, and Mejia. Rebuilding their pitching was going to be a massive undertaking with no question about it. That's 2 established players (Dozier and Pressly), 2 guys who'd debuted and showed a little success early (Rosario and Duffey), 1 guy who was showing he could hold his own (Escobar), and 5 prospects (not realistic to think you're hitting on all 5). Out of a 25 man roster that's nothing to write home about.

And I went and ruined it! I apologize for ruining your good deed for the month. I'll be better next time, I promise!

I'll split the difference...winning this division gets them no points with me (unless they go 64-24 the rest of the way and win 100 games), but if they win a playoff series they get points. Enough to change me from "fire" to "don't fire?" That will depend on how the rest of the year plays out. But I think winning a playoff series is worthy of some praise, and not an "emotional response."

Hey, don't be rude. Correa and Buxton are in the 3 and 4 holes, and they deserve some attention, too! Totally acceptable lineup for game 1 of spring training.

Yes, and that is why I said "there was some context needed. Solano has been an above average major league hitter since 2019. If Miranda ends up with that slash line for any 4 year stretch of his career we should all be quite happy. I understand you're using his whole career, and that's the context you're going with. In that sense, I 100% agree. If he has Solano's early career struggles you don't keep him around. I just wanted to clarify that if Miranda ends up as the type of hitter Solano ended up as we should be happy." We've kind of been talking past each other a little. My whole thing on this from the beginning was the context around which we looked at Solano. I acknowledged that you were going off his whole career, and that I agreed that wouldn't be ideal for Miranda. But I then added my own context of "if Miranda can become who Solano became," without any concern for anything outside of him becoming that player, then we should be happy.

Totally agree. I think they're hoping some magical switch will flip and suddenly this team will spring to life, and Kepler will be good, and Gallo will be his early season self, and Correa will get back to who he is (I actually believe this one), and Buxton will come around. I don't blame them for waiting on Buxton, and slow playing their decision on him. Blame them for some other things (*cough* Kepler *cough*), but not for seeing how things play out before making a big decision on Buck. If there's no treatment to help him the Twins are in an absolutely terrible spot, and, honestly, need to hope he retires. His no trade clause, mixed with being only a DH, and potentially having a chronic knee problem, make me think it'd be really hard to trade him. Maybe they can eat a whole bunch of money and ship him back to his hometown Braves who are deep enough as a team to not have to rely on him, but would appreciate his hot streaks as they try to win another title?

I'm with @DocBauer on this one. That is not an impressive list. Which goes to show how terrible Kepler has been, and how mind blowing it is that he's still on this team. Nobody could honestly say they'd be happy to have Cave around. Cave over Kepler? What's the point? Neither are worthy of the job. Refsnyder would be a better fit as a right handed utility guy on this roster. But, again, is that really some saving grace for this team? The Rooker trade has looked bad for 1 month. It was an otherworldly month, but he's back down on earth, and back to being the Brent Rooker he's been since he was a Twin. There's a reason 2 other teams, including the offense starved Royals, waived him last year. I don't miss Brent Rooker 1 bit. He'll be 29 before the end of this season, too. No loss there. Eddie Rosario was fun, and I enjoyed his ability to make contact with pitches he had no business hitting, and how clutch he was (or at least it felt like he was clutch). He was unplayable in Cleveland. Barely playable in Atlanta before destroying everyone in his path in the playoffs. Back to being bad in Atlanta. And is now back to being pretty good. I'd certainly take him over Kepler, but he's not a difference maker for this team, either. Wade for Shaun Anderson has not turned out well. He was a heavy platoon guy his first year out there, and was really good against righties. He was flat out bad last year. But seems to have had some things really click this year. He'd be really nice to have back for sure. Wade, Refsnyder, Eddie, Kepler, Cave, Rooker would be my order on these guys. Wade being the only one I'd really want. Refsnyder just being a better roster fit as a righty bat. And Eddie just being a slightly better all around player who was more fun to watch.

I don't really disagree with that. If the FO is forcing Rocco to not only play him, but hit him in the top 4 in the order I have a major problem with that. He's such a tough situation to handle. You need him if you want to reach your peak as a team. Even if he's just a DH. But when he's bad he brings your valley as a team even lower than it normally would be. If this tumble in their record continues, and turns into a spiral, I'd IL him without caring about his, or the locker room's, feelings one bit. If they're not going to win in 2023 they need to do what they can to have him ready for 2024. This assumes that the Drs tell them surgery, and/or rest, between now and next February has a high likelihood of getting him back in CF. You can't risk him being a fulltime DH for the rest of his contract while chasing a chance to win a terrible division, but getting swept out of the playoffs again in 2023. We're to the point where 2024 and beyond is becoming more important when it comes to Buxton.

Donovan Solano has had a 4.5 year stretch where he's been an overall above average hitter. Brian Dozier had a 4 year stretch where he was an overall above average hitter. Solano's best stretch was 2019-2023 where he went 116, 127, 103, 97, and 113 currently OPS+. Dozier's best stretch was 2014 to 2017 where he went 114, 104, 134, and 126 OPS+. He never had any other season with an OPS+ of 100. I said "if Miranda ever has a 4 year stretch like Solano has we should be happy." You replied by telling me we shouldn't be happy with that, but instead he is like Brian Dozier. Who had a 4 year stretch. The big difference between being happy, and not being happy, is when the 4 season stretch happened? Solano is actually well on his way to making it a 5 year stretch now. If Jose Miranda puts together a 5 year stretch as an above average major league hitter, at any time in his career, we should be happy.

Do you have some quotes of the Twins saying that he could play in CF, but they just won't because of the added risk of injuries from walls, etc.? It's entirely possible I missed them, or forgot them, but I don't remember seeing anything like that. It's always been that he wasn't capable of playing CF, but they hoped his knee would improve by the middle of May and they'd be able to start working him in. I don't remember a single quote from anyone that he was physically capable of it, but they just wouldn't put him out there.

Fine, take out him having to get to his position. His knee is barking at him with just what he's doing as a DH. Do you accept that adding playing CF on top of that is adding more work in any way, shape, or form? Is your belief that the Twins simply don't want to play him in CF? You think the guys with 6 and 7 figure salaries riding on the team succeeding think he's capable of playing CF, but just won't put him out there? Or am I describing a hurt player? There's a difference between hurt and injured, no? NFL players go without practicing all week, but then play in a game because they're hurt but not injured. It's a spectrum.

It's turned into a really frustrating groundhogs day for sure. I can't imagine the frustration he goes through. I'm not sure I think he's going to make it to the end of his deal without retiring first.

No, that's what you're saying because you're refusing to accept that there's any difference between playing CF and just DHing. I did the quick math up above. He runs roughly 500 feet on average as a DH each game. Just getting to and from his position in CF is at least 4400 feet of jogging each game. That's before he moves 1 step in attempt to field a ball. I am physically capable of walking 6 miles a day. My knees are still sore the next day, but I can live my life without any real problems beyond the aches and pains. I am physically unable to run a mile. If I did I literally wouldn't be able to walk the next day. Should I not walk my 6 miles each day because I'm physically unable to run a mile? It's entirely possible to be physically capable of 1 thing, but not another. Playing CF and DHing are different things. It's entirely possible to be able to do one, but not the other.

He played 101 games in 2021, fyi. But from 2019 through today he's played 379 games with a .298/.353/.416/.769 slash line. That's not a dime a dozen player. Garlick's entire career was 2019-2023, but he only played 158 total games with a .225/.277/.438/.715 slash line. They're not the same type of player. That's why I said there was some context needed. Solano has been an above average major league hitter since 2019. If Miranda ends up with that slash line for any 4 year stretch of his career we should all be quite happy. I understand you're using his whole career, and that's the context you're going with. In that sense, I 100% agree. If he has Solano's early career struggles you don't keep him around. I just wanted to clarify that if Miranda ends up as the type of hitter Solano ended up as we should be happy.

There's a little context that I think should be added here. Solano was really bad in his first 5 shots at the bigs ending in 2016. When he got a shot again in 2019 he was a much different player. I think you need to talk about which Solano you mean when you talk about who he is. Not arguing he's some star, or anything, but he's certainly been worth a 40-man spot since 2019.

So 315 feet of running to first base on average, and let's give him another 180 feet of running the bases on average. So 495 feet of running on offense on average. According to my very rough measuring on Google maps, CF is roughly 275 feet away from the 1st base dugout at Target Field. That makes sense since the fence is 400+ feet away, and might even be a little on the low end with how far back he plays now. So 16 trips of 275 is 4400 feet. That's just jogging to and from his position for 8 innings. Not including him chasing down a single ball, or moving even 5 quick steps in the direction of the ball that's hit, but he doesn't have to field. He's already at nearly 10x more feet covered by simply taking his position every inning. I think that's a pretty clear difference between DHing and playing CF. You'd also have to add those 495 offensive feet to his total output when he's in CF cuz he's still hitting then. I don't know your feelings on Buxton in CF, the knee situation, or anything, so I'm not aiming this stuff directly at you, you just provided a good chance to throw some numbers out for the crowd that doesn't think there's a real difference in playing CF and DHing.

It's not? He's not physically capable of all the running involved in playing CF right now so they're only DHing him because his body can handle that much running/swinging. That's how I understand the situation. Sure sounds like he's "physically unable to play the position" so they're "avoiding wear and tear" that causes him problems while allowing him to do as much playing as he's physically capable of right now. Who's said anything about an acute injury? To my knowledge the Twins have never said they're attempting to avoid an acute knee injury by limiting him. It's always been about the wear and tear his knees can handle. The original comment you quoted of mine was literally me saying I'd put him on the 60-day IL.

They'd definitely have to set their bar at a certain level for Gray. And the other FOs know it, too. Whether they're willing to pay it or not likely comes down to supply and demand at the deadline. They know they have to get a player back that's equal to a pick in the #30-35 range in the draft. And they know they need prospects worth Gray for the second half as well. You let teams know that's the price, and see what happens. I think it's quite possible they could get that back for him at the deadline with there being more buyers than sellers. I don't think they'll do it, though. I'd think there's a little fear for their jobs if they have to sell at the deadline after making so many "win now" moves the last year plus.

He runs the bases a max of twice a game most of the time. He'd play defense a minimum of 8 innings a game. That's a whole lot more wear and tear on your knees than swinging a dozen times, and running the bases once or twice. Just the jogs to and from CF before and after each inning would be more steps than he takes on offense. I don't see what's nonsensical about it at all.