chpettit19

Starting me in CF would sell more tickets, though, so the Pohlads may like that idea. Like the "freak show" at the circus. People love to stare at oddities.

Which Buxton would you be getting back in the playoffs? Superstar, top 10 talent on the planet Buxton? Or K machine Buxton? That should be the deciding factor, but the problem is you really don't have time to figure that out unless he's back very, very soon, and I don't think that's happening. The Twins are better off without bad Buxton in the lineup, but significantly better with great Buxton in the lineup. He can be great Buxton for short stints, and carry the team. People like to think there's some magic formula for winning in the postseason, but the magic formula is just being the team with the most guys that get hot for a month with extra off days. Hot Buxton is a series winning player. Cold Buxton is a series losing player. I just don't think they can give him any real playoff run if he's not back in the regular season and showing he's great Buxton. It's a really tough decision for rostering him if he's healthy. The real options are that he's a starter or non-roster player. I don't know that a bench role is a good option for him. If he's bad Buxton he's not one of your top 14-15 bats. If he's good Buxton he's your best bat. So, in my opinion, you're either starting him or just leave him off the roster.

I'd guess 15 bats and 11 arms for the WC round. With that setup you can carry a base stealer (likely Stevenson) and an emergency starter. I'd carry Ober in the WC round as my 11th arm. Hope to not need him (either cuz you win in 2, or you have no bad starts or extra inning games), and have him as part of my game 1 plan for the ALDS if the WC goes 3 games. Even though I wouldn't use Ober in the WC round, unless he's needed, I'd actually still have him get up in 1 or 2 of the games as a "possible option" without any intention of putting him in. He's never thrown in the postseason, and since you shouldn't need your 11th arm anyways you can use it as a chance for him to get the first couple rounds of butterflies out. He seems like a calm dude in general, but I'm sure the first time you hear your name called out in the pen in the postseason that heart goes a little quicker. Get him used to the atmosphere in the WC round so he's as ready as he can be in the ALDS.

A 10 day IL stint basically ends his regular season. I don't know much about the recovery from his foot pain, but is it likely that he'd see such a significant improvement that it'd make up for him sitting out the rest of the season and going into the playoffs with just a couple games played in Colorado to get his timing back? Feels like a bold gamble to take.

Getting your rotation lined up for October 3, 4, 5 is far more important than trying to chase down 3 other teams to get that 2 seed. Get your guys 2 more starts, but do it in a way that lines up Lopez, Gray, and Ryan (or Gray, Lopez, Ryan) for October 3, 4, 5.

How much rest is needed between now and October 3rd to have his feet be feeling significantly better? Is it actually realistic that his feet are going to be feeling truly better by then? I'd think not, but I'm not a Dr. If not then he can have 9/20, 9/26, and 9/30 off. DH 3 other games, including game 162 on 10/1, and play SS the other 6 games. I wouldn't give him anymore than 3 actual days off the rest of the year, though. His timing at the plate is far more important than any rest days, assuming it's not realistic to get his feet back and truly feeling good before the postseason starts.

What's the score? Not just "down a run," but is it 12-13 or 0-1? Who's left in their pen? Can the lefty be pulled for a righty, or does he have to face Solano? Who's left on the Twins bench? How many outs? Who's up next? How good is the lefty, and what are his splits like? Have other guys already been subbed in? Sure, there are times that it makes sense. Shouldn't have spoken in such concrete terms in that sentence. But if it's just an "auto-pinch hit" like Rocco seems to do sometimes and it actually leads to a better pitcher facing Solano cold off the bench I'll be upset. This is a good example of why relying on platoon split advantages is far less ideal than just having really good hitters. You have to try to score when the opportunity presents itself, but the ultimate goal is scoring more in the game as a whole. Relying on platoon advantages, and making lots of substitutions, makes it harder to maximize all of your opportunities in a singular game as a whole. It's advantageous over the course of 162 games, but not necessarily in an individual game.

Agreed on the early game moves. Emptying your bench by the 6th isn't anything I'm likely to ever be in support of. A lot of that comes down to knowing who's available in the other pen, but taking away any possible future moves by the 6th when you know the entire lineup gets another AB doesn't make much sense to me. A singular 2 out pinch hit move with runners in scoring position in the 5th or 6th? I can buy that. But blowing up your bench by then doesn't seem like the right move to me. I'm quite interested to see how the Twins use their bench in the playoffs (I don't like to say "Rocco's strategy," because I don't think it's just his, it's the orgs). The extremes with which they pinch hit in the regular season makes sense because of the length of the regular season. Fans tend to judge each move on a more individual basis, but the strategy is a "for the long haul" kind of strategy. They don't expect to win each situation, but they expect to win more situations over 162 games than they would without pinch hitting. But a 3, 5, or 7 game series isn't a long haul, it's a sprint. Pinch hitting for Julien in the 6th, or sooner, when you know that spot is coming up again later in the game would/will frustrate me greatly. They're going to carry 15 position players, though, I'd guess. So I'm not going to be surprised at all to see early pinch hitting moves with a plan to replace the righty with a different lefty later in the game if called for. But I'm not going to like it. I don't want Stevenson up with the tying run at 2nd in the 9th. The playoffs are a time to shrink your bench and pen, and just let your best guys see if they're better than the other team's best guys.

That's fair, but casual Twins fans don't really care about that all that much. Would've been better had I not mentioned the Rays at all, but I was replying to a statement that this is a series between 2 playoff teams so having a small crowd is disappointing. I think the Twins basically locking their postseason position up makes these being 2 playoff teams not really mean much. The Twins aren't really playing for anything anymore this regular season. The Rays aren't a team with a national star, and the Twins have locked in the 3 seed for all intents and purposes. Beyond just seeing 2 solid to good teams play there's not a lot of drama for a casual fan to get behind right now. Drama draws fans.

I wonder what the crowds would look like if the division wasn't so close to being officially wrapped up. There's not a lot of drama left in the central. While the Rays and Twins are both playoff teams, they aren't really playing for much anymore. Especially the Twins. The Twins aren't catching the top 2 seeds so at this point there's very little drama in where their season is going. May see different crowd sizes if Cleveland and Detroit were a more serious threat.

Ober's lack of innings pitched has always been because of injuries, not the Twins artificially limiting his innings (until this year). He's going to break the 140 innings mark this year. He won't have any limits put on him next year. The opportunity is there for him as long as he stays healthy.

Barring injury, or a sudden cratering of performance, I think Lopez, Gray, and Ryan will be setup as their 3 starters for the WC round with the hope that Ryan actually ends up pitching game 1 of the divisional round. I think Ober and Maeda are going to battle it out the 2nd half of September for the chance to be the #4 starter in the postseason. The other likely headed to the pen as a 2 inning weapon if/when needed, or the 5th starter if they get into some longer series and guys can't keep going on short rest. Barring injury, or sudden cratering of performance, I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan have postseason spots locked up. Varland and Ober/Maeda likely also have jobs come October as well. The question then is if they carry 1 or 2 more pitchers. Who gets those spots likely comes down to if Stewart comes back, and how he looks if he does, and if they want a 2nd lefty (I hope they do), which is likely Funderburk's job to lose at this point. Wild card round will be very interesting to see how many arms they choose to keep. If you need more than 6 or 7 in that round you're probably in trouble, and if you need more than 9 you're probably toast. I'd think they'd load up on position players for that round to really let Rocco play his pinch hitting game. I'd guess they still carry 11 arms for that series, but they better not have to use anywhere near that many.

It's been time. Don't expect to see him go much below the 4 or 5 hole, but it's been time for a while to drop him down to 6th or further. He's not currently one of the 5 best hitters on this team.

They also need offense next year and the years after. They need more talent overall, not to move the talent from one spot to another. It's totally fine if you see a good offense without Julien. I don't. And we already know good pitching without the offense to back it doesn't work. I don't see a team that needs to move talent around, I see a team that needs to add talent. They can't keep trading offense for pitching. They don't have enough offense for that.

Yeah, we just don't see the prospects the same way. Nothing wrong with that, we just won't agree. I don't see their realistic ceilings anywhere near where you appear to. These are not top 100 type prospects we're talking about outside of Lee, and maybe Martin. It's just the nature of prospects. Most of them fail. Especially the average ones.

I understand that, and very much have the same concern. I don't think the solution to that problem is trading your best hitter, though. They cleared a spot for Miranda this year so it's not like they never play young guys. Had spots ready and waiting for Kirilloff and Lewis the second they were ready. Gallo and Julien were/are poorly handled situations. But there are other young guys who've they've handed the reigns to. Duran was on the opening day roster last year. I just see some of these ideas as overcompensating.

I want to see the young kids audition, too. I don't want to go into a season built on them, though. Cuz chances are Martin, Prato, Williams, and Severino aren't more than "eh" hitters just like the vets. So you've then traded away your best bat because you didn't want a most-of-the-time DH. I don't think the idea of trading Julien is crazy, and understand the desire for a big time young arm. I don't see the depth that some of you claim there is. Going into 2024 with that roster sounds like an absolute disaster to me. Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year? And if it doesn't where's your depth? 30 year old Stevenson? Noah Miller? 2nd year Keaschell? To me that plan is a drastic over adjustment to our Gallo and Julien frustrations this year. The truth about those prospects is that you're not likely finding more than 2 of them (likely Martin and Lee) who are even as good as Farmer or Solano. And if/when they fail you're down to even lesser prospects trying to fill in. The Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and completely botched their chances to test young players the last 2 years. But I don't think overcompensating by going almost completely young, unproven, and untested is the answer unless you're not really trying to compete in 2024 and are just testing guys out for 2025 and beyond. There's a middle ground and that's what I'm trying to advocate for.

Well it doesn't just have to be Julien. The real point is that with Buxton back in CF there aren't too many guys for not enough spots. You can rotate Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, and Kirilloff all through the DH and IF spots. I certainly understand the desire for another pitcher, but I don't think this offense is good, or deep, enough for me to think trading possibly their best bat is a move that upgrades the team overall. We've seen what a bunch of "eh" hitters gets this team even when they have an elite rotation. Gets them to barely .500. I'm sure others see the offense differently, though.

If Buxton goes back to CF isn't the move to just put Julien at DH?

I see their depth differently than you. Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, Correa, Lee is a pretty nice IF/DH rotation. I'm a gigantic Polanco fan, and think he's the key to the lineup this year, but he's not here for more than next year at the most. After that where is the "depth?" Willi Castro or Nick Gordon? Martin's bad infield glove? Miranda's horrible infield glove? Yunior Severino's terrible infield glove? If Lee is one of their best 9 hitters at the start of next season I don't want him in AAA, but him starting the year there doesn't mean they have some crazy depth that can easily replace their best bat. We've been talking about logjams and depth for years around here. Their refusal to move on from vets early this year is the first time it's ever been an actual problem. And they've been proven right with their Kepler stubbornness. Gallo is still crazy to me. The Twins have plenty of names (Schobel and Keaschall as others) that we can throw around and call depth, but if they're not actually good players, or nearly as good as the guy you're suggesting trading, it's not as simple as "more great starters are better than depth." As much as we don't like to think about it, there's a very real chance that Lee simply isn't a great, or even good, MLB hitter. We've seen what the lineup looks like when it's full the "depth," and the best rotation in baseball barely kept them at .500. "Depth" is only replaceable if you have equal parts to replace the ones you move. I don't think the Twins have equal parts to replace Julien's bat. And I don't think it's particularly close even. If you trade Julien and Lewis, Correa, or Kirilloff's health/performance problems don't remedy themselves there's no "depth" they have that's making up for it. You're looking at replacing them with similarly poor gloves and significantly worse bats than Julien. Having a bunch of names is not the same as having replaceable depth. But I get that many people don't see their depth the same way I do.

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever. Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

Martin doesn't need to be up today, but I'd really like to see him added to the 40-man today. I'm fine waiting til tomorrow to add him to the 28-man, though. Very highly doubt that happens, though.

Every team is allowed to spend as much as they want. Choosing not to spend on a certain player is very different than by rule not having the chance to.

I'm pretty sure the MLB waiver order used to reset monthly. Or something close to that. Back when the league you were in mattered, too.

According to The Athletic, yes, Oakland could claim all of them and get all of them. Waiver order is based strictly on current winning% (as of tomorrow, so today's games still matter) and nothing else effects them.