chpettit19

It's entirely possible, but I don't think it's a lock at all. I think they'd go Lopez just like they did opening day. I think Lopez is their guy, and he gets game 1 if they have any chance to set a rotation unless one of the other guys separates themselves from the other 3.

I'm confused by the idea that it's clear he's not coming back, but he's also attempting to make it A LOT harder to trade him. Is the "not coming back" idea about just the Twins or baseball in general? His words in the Park article actually sound like a guy with every intention of coming back, but he'll leave it up to his kids. Kids who he says are loving having dad be a major leaguer, and just got to enjoy a pretty cool All Star break with him. I'm guessing he's absolutely playing baseball next year. So I read your words as him not coming back to MN next year, but then I'm confused on why his goal would be to make it harder to trade him if he doesn't even want to be here to start with. Aren't those ideas at least somewhat contradictory? And teams trade decent prospects for starting pitching at the deadline all the time. Even if they're an expiring deal. What teams likely won't do is trade a decent prospect for the expiring deal, and tack on enough to cover the comp A pick the Twins likely get from Gray signing elsewhere next year. And that's why it's less likely they'd get enough value in a trade for him. Unless they allow the other team to negotiate an extension with him first. That could boost their return.

I don't know that Sonny Gray would be their game 1 starter anyways, and I think that's a factor to be taken into account here. They have 4 guys that, at this point, they'd throw in a hat and pick out the order to throw them in a playoff series. Hopefully one or 2 of them start separating themselves over the next 2 months and you have a more distinct rotation for a playoff series, but right now Sonny would be anywhere from 1 to 4 in the playoff rotation, and I think the idea of selling your 4th in line is much different than selling your game 1 starter.

Gio Urshela has a fractured pelvis and is out for the season. He's a free agent after the year. If the Twins trade for him they better hope he's a great coach.

Yeah, I'm just not going to speak to the "heart" of any player. You're more than welcome to feel however you want to about that, but I'm not going to speculate about what anyone is putting in or sacrificing on or off the field.

Math and hitting are not comparable subjects. Hitting is a physical task that can be broken down and assessed by anyone. Math is a mental subject that you have to be able to do to teach it. I assume you're not a former major leaguer, but I'm pretty sure you can look at Gallo's swing and pick out a couple problems with it. I would bet every dollar I ever make for the rest of my life that there's a number of things you understand, and could explain how to do, but can't physically do it. Whole bunch of coaches in every sport weren't great at playing those sports, but know the game well. Knowing/teaching is not the same as doing when it comes to physical tasks. Not to mention the levels of "good." Popkins was a AA hitter. That's a pretty good hitter in the grand scheme of things. Barry Bonds was a pretty good hitter, but a terrible hitting coach. Mark McGwire as well. Being a retired baseball player doesn't make you capable of being a hitting coach. Rocco was an incredible baseball player. Plenty of people find him to be a less than stellar MLB coach/manager. They aren't the same thing.

I don't disagree that those things are needed, I'm just not sure they aren't already happening. Pretty sure we have a guy in there who's pretty famous for sign stealing. This is not a young team. None of them are Cruz's age, but this is a veteran team with a coaching staff full of guys who've been around a while. Correa, Buxton, Solano, Kepler, Vazquez, Gallo, Farmer, MAT, and Polanco are legit veteran players. Everyone can always learn more, and improve on their skills, but if you need another guy to come in to teach those 9 guys what to look for on a baseball field you're doomed anyways. Sonny Gray and Kenta are veterans who should be able to help them, too. If Rocco and Tingler aren't able to help guide Popkins in his role then they need to go because they can't do their jobs. If the FO can't see that those 2 can't guide the guys under them then they need to go because they can't do their jobs. Just hiring more and more coaches/advisors/"translators"/whatever you want to call it isn't an answer to me. If the guys in the org can't do their jobs replace them with someone who can.

I don't buy that argument. Nobody is running 3 man rotations in a 7 game series. The Yankees started 4 guys in the ALCS, not 3. So did the Astros. Phillies and Padres each started 4 guys in the NLCS. Phillies and Astros both started 4 guys in the WS. Phillies started 4 guys in the NLDS. So did the Braves. And Dodgers. And Padres. Cleveland started 4 guys in the ALDS. Yankees did only start 3 guys in that series, but that's the only series that went 4 games that any team didn't start 4 guys. The Yankees had 5 guys they were comfortable with starting in the playoffs. They needed help on offense. So they traded 1 of those 5 guys for offensive help. Severino only made 19 starts last year so he was a question mark in his own right. That Yankee situation is incredibly similar to the Twins current situation. Why would replacing Gray with Ober be a massacre? That's an extremely aggressive take when Ober has performed every bit as well as Sonny this year. Yes, Lopez would move to the top spot. I think you're overrating Sonny Gray by about a mile. He's not any better than Lopez, Ryan, or Ober. Those 4 are all very much on equal ground. The difference would be that Maeda would be the 4th starter instead of Ober. Yes, Ober is likely on an innings limit, but if they're going to shut him down for the playoffs I'd argue it's even more reason to trade Gray if you get the right package. If they're not even going to be willing to put their best team on the field in the playoffs they shouldn't really be worrying about the playoffs. I think we just see Gray, and maybe the rest of the rotation, very differently. And that's fine.

Really cool feature, @Brock Beauchamp! Thanks for putting this together.

St Paul is in MN so there's a little reason for him to be in the state 😜

I think the answer is Buxton in CF, Polanco at 2B, and Julien at DH to get the best team with the current players. But I don't think Buxton lasts long in CF and Polanco can't seem to stay healthy this year. But when Polanco and Lewis are both back it'd be nice to have the DH spot to rotate some guys through, and have Julien be able to be there most of the time. But I don't think Buxton can play CF for any real length of time, and that's super depressing.

He didn't make the majors, but he did play AA ball. Let's not act like he's just some random computer programmer they grabbed off the street to write computer models. He's played baseball at an incredibly high level. He's faced 100 mph fastballs. You're mischaracterizing who he is, and what he does.

I don't know that I agree with that either. I don't like talking about player's "heart." Judging outward emotion during 7 second clips of a player here and there is not a good way to measure "heart." I assume by "fire" you mean high energy, outward showing emotion. Lewis brings plenty of that. Buxton does as well. Cruz and Sano are not at all guys I think of when it comes to that kind of stuff. Rosario definitely had more outward emotion. Cruz's mere presence in the locker room didn't help San Diego this year. Or Washington last year. He very well may be a wonderful addition, but I have no reason to believe that's a sure thing. Every player in that clubhouse can talk hitting. Correa has been touted for years for his ability to take analytics data and translate it to the field. He's won championships. He brings fire and heart. Why isn't his mere presence helping anything? I just think people interpret what they want to out of what they see on TV, and feel about certain players. Can we all suggest guys we think would be helpful? Of course. But talking with such certainty about how people we know nothing about would do in improving this lineup is too far for me. Josh Donaldson is incredibly knowledgeable about hitting. There's great segments from MLB Network out there about him breaking down his swing, etc. It's incredible to watch. He has a ton of fire and heart. There's clips of him working with the young hitters in spring training when he was here. Should we look to bring him back after he retires?

And Molitor has actually coached so that'd make more sense. I'm stuck on the Cruz example because that's the one people were using, I commented on, and you responded to. But my overall point is that our suggestions, just like when they hire FO personnel, and the vast majority of coaches, are completely and totally uneducated. Mollie's managed, and been a coach before. Assuming the FO isn't completely incompetent they actually know what his ability to do this stuff is. People just throwing out random former hitters and saying they'd be able to fix things isn't based on anything real. There's a huge difference in being able to be a good hitter, and being able to help 13 individual guys be good hitters.

Knowing about hitting and being good helping other people hit well are not the same thing. Popkins knows about hitting. All the major league players on the roster know about hitting. They all know about hitting, can talk about hitting, and figure out what a pitcher is up to. All you're really saying is that Nelson Cruz was a good hitter so you assume he can make other people better. That's not how it works. The 3 guys performing well below their career norms have all been in the league for 9 years. You don't think they know hitting, talking about hitting, or figuring out what a pitcher is up to? If it takes them more than 9 years to figure out what a pitcher is up to they're probably not ever figuring out what a pitcher is up to.

Oh come on, observed what? Have you ever heard him talking with other hitters about that stuff? We have no real way of knowing anything at all about his ability to do anything at all when it comes to helping other hitters hit. He may be great at it. He may be horrible. We have literally no way of knowing that. Vazquez at career norms wouldn't make much of a difference at all. Buxton and Correa, yes. But your claim was that this isn't a talent concern. If the other 10 guys can't make up for 3 guys, one of which is a below average hitter to start with, enough to keep you over .500 when you have a top 3 pitching staff in baseball you have a talent problem. I'm not forgetting Miranda, but he doesn't have "career norms." He's a sophomore hitter who was going to need to make adjustments to the adjustments. Him struggling isn't shocking at all. It happens all the time. This is a flawed offense that lacks significant talent.

How do you know Cruz is rich in those skills? It's entirely possible that he is, but how would we actually know that? And how do you know Popkins is poor in them? Who's not performing at career levels outside of Buxton, Correa, and Vazquez? Now 2 of those guys are the most important guys they have, but who else isn't? Jeffers is having his best year. Castro has been better than his career norms. Gallo is doing what Gallo does. Kepler is doing what Kepler does. MAT is slightly below, but not outside a regular dip. Solano is doing what Solano does. Farmer is pretty much doing what he does. Polanco has been hurt. They have a bunch of 7 hole through bench bat guys on the team. Polanco, Buxton, and Correa are the only 3 guys on this team that would've come into this year with a top 6 lineup spot locked up on a contender. The rest of these guys simply aren't that good. And are "performing at an approximate level of career averages." Their 2 most important players have tanked, yes, but the rest of the individual players on this team are playing to the middle of their career norms. This lineup is not that talented.

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach. He certainly might be, but I have no reason to be convinced of it. That Padres team that just let him go certainly wasn't improved by any of his input over there. The Twins should know him well enough to know what kind of coach he'd be, though. I have very fond memories of him, too, but that doesn't make him a good hitting coach. He clearly knows his swing well, but that doesn't mean he can break down other guy's swings. I see 1 call for Rowson already, and I'm sure we'll have more on this thread. Confused by that since he's had absolutely horrible offenses since he left. My thing with this offense is that it lacks talent. Rowson's offenses since he left have lacked talent. He wasn't able to turn them into even league average offenses. Why would we think he could do that here? You think the Twins offense is bad? Go look at the Tigers... No thanks on the Yankees guy. He may very well be a very good hitting coach, but this extreme analytics approach needs to go. I'd guess he'd be the type they'd hire if they fired Popkins, though. And that's why I'm quite indifferent about firing Popkins. Find it hard to believe they're going to suddenly be willing to change the approach they've had in place since they got here, and built this team around. And if they are going to try to do that I hope the new head Pohlad says "thanks, but no thanks, you're fired" if they go to him with the idea of changing their whole philosophy. You built your org around that philosophy and you haven't earned the chance to reshape the entire org again. Cashman has rings he can point to that suggest he's worthy of more leash so he can fire a hitting coach and try to switch things up. These guys don't. Don't let the FO throw Popkins, or any of the coaches, under the bus for the severely flawed offensive roster they assembled based on their flawed approach.

While I don't disagree with the take that these guys are doing what was pretty predictable, we have no reason to believe nobody would trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. Those things not happening aren't signs they weren't possible. I believe the FO that they had offers for Kepler. They probably weren't impressive. I think the FO severely overrated him. Not trading him for what they felt was too low of an offer isn't the same thing as nobody being willing to trade for him. Only 1 team can sign a player. When Ohtani signs this offseason you can't say that only that team was willing to sign him. The Twins misevaluating the players, and their worth, is not the same as nobody else in the league wanting them.

I'm with @ashbury on this, I think a big part of the reason they haven't made moves is their fear of another season tanking because of injuries. They're protecting against that, to some degree. But I've been saying for years that there really isn't any log jams, or extreme depth anywhere. When you refuse to move on from league average, at best, performers you create a false sense of depth that isn't actually there. True log jams, or depth, are from an abundance of talent, not an abundance of easily replaceable guys. The other big part of the reason is their over-reliance on analytics, and what they think "should" happen. I thought, and still think, the Gallo move was smart. His shown ceiling, just 2 years ago, is an all star gold glover. He's 29. That's a good gamble. Cody Bellinger had been as bad for longer, and he got 17.5 mil from the Cubs. He's had a great turnaround this year. You take risks on shown talent. But when the bounce back doesn't come you have to flush it and move on. You can't lose an entire season to a guy you hoped would figure it out. You thought Kepler's batted ball data would get better results with the lack of shifting? You were wrong (and predictably wrong, so I hope that isn't truly what they expected). You can't lose an entire season to a guy you hoped would figure it out. My biggest complaint with this FO is their absolute inability to make timely in-season adjustments. And they're at it again here. It didn't work. You took reasonable risks, but you got bit. Don't just stand their and let them keep biting you over and over. Even if the folks reaching out offering to help end up biting you, too, at least you took the chance at improvement instead continuing to get bit by the same guys over and over. Move on, and take a new reasonable risk.

I'd be awfully surprised if that's what the Drs are saying and Paparesta, Buxton, and the strength and conditioning guys are just deciding to ignore it. But it is a possibility. Why would that be concerning? Aren't literally all of our health and lifestyle decisions up to us? I don't see the connection between "ultimately up to Byron" and "encouraging guys to play through injuries that are hurting their performance." Byron, and the Twins, have a whole lot of smart, well trained people giving them advice and information. Byron takes that information, adds his own knowledge of how his body is truly feeling day to day, and makes a decision on what he'd like to do. The team can't force him to run out to CF, or take an AB, if he doesn't want to. The Twins play way more games than they should with a short bench because they don't force guys to play through things. I don't see that at all. If anything they're overly cautious with injuries.

If you trade Gray he's replaced by Ober in that 3 man rotation. That's not really a downgrade, and may actually be an upgrade. I'm not advocating for trading Gray, but if losing him tanks your entire playoff hopes, your playoff hopes weren't that good to start with. He's a really nice pitcher, but he's not a healthy deGrom, Cole, or prime Scherzer/Verlander. The math for trading Gray is pretty simple. They tell teams they need a package worthy of 2 months of Gray, plus additional worth that's equal to, or greater than, the worth of a #30-40 pick in next year's draft. If the Twins get an offer that's worth 2 months of Gray and a top 30-40 pick they should absolutely listen, and probably pull the trigger. If they don't they keep him and tag him.

This isn't quite how the QO works in baseball. The 20M doesn't have to be "matched" by anyone, and the other team doesn't lose a top 40 pick. Maybe a team wants him for 2 years and 30 mil overall. He can take that deal. Maybe, as some suggest, he just hates Rocco so much he'll do anything to get out of here and would accept a 1 year, 5 mil deal from someone. The 20 mil only matters in that that's what he'd be guaranteed to return to the Twins. Depending on the team that signs him they could lose their 2nd and 5th highest pick and some international bonus money (if they pay the CBT), but even their 2nd pick isn't top 40. Forfeit their 2nd highest pick and some international bonus money (all the middle teams), but their 2nd picks wouldn't be a top 40 pick. Or they forfeit their 3rd highest pick (teams that receive revenue sharing), and that pick obviously wouldn't be top 40.

To be fair, the Yankees did trade Jordan Montgomery at the deadline last year for an injured Harrison Bader.

Yeah, he seems smart to me. An interesting thing to me is that Rudy Hernandez has been a hitting coach with them since 2014. We don't talk much about him. I don't know what the answer is. I'm fine with them firing the whole group, but I just want it to start with the very top. I don't think anything is fixed without a different approach from the top. And I don't see Falvine being able to adapt well enough to make the changes on their own. But as long as they're in charge they'll bring in guys who specialize in their approach.