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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    The 80s were a simpler time! Although, I was born in '85 so I don't really have any personal knowledge of that. It's just what people say.
  2. chpettit19
    You need to have a reasonable K%, and good to great OBP, but the top 5 scoring teams were also the top 5 slugging teams with 2 strikes (according to my fangraphs splits at least). There's obviously way more that goes into things than this very simple look at things, but the idea of just choking up and putting the ball in play because good things happen even on weak contact is incredibly overblown. It's not as fun to watch, and it's not what the majority of us were taught, but it's pretty clear that the best strategy is to try to hit the ball hard all the time, even if it leads to some extra Ks. Because the number of times that weak contact actually leads to a hit is outweighed by the damage done by the times you make hard contact. I think the change in approach that is needed for the Twins is getting to 2 strikes less often. Stop taking first pitch fastballs down the middle. Be ready to drive the ball from the second you step in the box. Julien has a great approach this way. Edit: @ashbury, you posted my second paragraph, with far better detail, while I was typing. But I agree with that take. Not getting to 2 strikes is a wonderful strategy.
  3. chpettit19
    I haven't seen anyone suggest the Ks are ok. My point is that they are teaching the same things that the best offenses in baseball teach. Hit the ball hard. The Guardians and Nationals had the lowest K% in baseball. They were all about your "make contact first" idea. They finished 27th and 21st in runs scored. They were 22nd and 23rd in OBP. 29th and 23rd in SLG. Would you rather the Twins had their offenses? I'll keep this short: hitting the ball hard, even with 2 strikes, is the best way to score runs whether you like it or not.
  4. chpettit19
    Then maybe go read the book "The Art of Hitting" and start at the cover where it says "Tony Gwynn." "The Science of Hitting" was a nicely written book by Ted Williams, though. And that book is 53 years old so that's not a better argument. The revision of it is 37 years old. At least with "The Art" you were only at 25 years old.
  5. chpettit19
    Is it your belief that MLB teams are suddenly all going to start making payroll cuts as their TV deals run out because there's just no TV contracts available for them anymore? Their TV contract ran out. I can promise you the Pohlad's expectations are that the Twins don't lose a single penny in revenue. There's no professional sports team that is ever ok with revenue going down year over year. They know it may happen due to unforeseen circumstances (that's the nature of doing business), but no team owner is going to sit in a conference room with their business departments and accept "our TV contract ran out and we just couldn't replace that revenue, sorry." The whole room would be fired.
  6. chpettit19
    I think you should do some checking of reality before making these claims. Joe Maddon, Aaron Judge, Manny Machado, David Ortiz. All names that have been involved in tampering situations in MLB in the last 10 years. Players actually aren't allowed to recruit other players (it's why Judge is on that list). It's far more frequent in the NBA. The Lakers got fined for tampering with Paul George 5 years ago. The Hawks, Rockets, and Kings were fined for it within the last decade as well. Shoot, the Raptors got fined for it because Drake told Durant at one of his shows that he should go to Toronto. Maybe do some research on the topic next time before making these claims. Edit to add: Not sure how I forgot the most famous one recently- Bryce Harper tampering with Mike Trout.
  7. chpettit19
    FYI, Juan Soto is left handed. Still well worth it because he's an elite hitter all around, but he's not a righty. And Buxton and Martin are both righties so not sure platoon is the right word to use there.
  8. chpettit19
    Thank you for this. That is encouraging! I'm still not sold on their offense being what it needs to be, but the improvement is nice. They had an incredibly weak schedule the second half, but they got the kids experience, those kids succeeded so likely gained confidence, and they put together a very nice second half offensively. Hopefully the kids take the next step, and they can add at least 1 more big bat to the top of the order.
  9. chpettit19
    I think a solid approach is to give Louie another year as a starter to try to take the next step. He has the fastball to build a repertoire around to become more than he is now. But he's not exactly young for a guy still trying to get higher than a 4 or 5 starter so I think 2024 would be my last year giving him a shot at establishing himself as a rotation option. If he can't make the next step (and there's nothing wrong with that) then I'd look to do like this year and move him to the pen late in the year, but for good this time. The other thing that plays into this is the guys coming behind him in the system. Can SWR, Festa, Raya, etc. jump him in the rotation pecking order by this time next year? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are likely rotation locks going into 2024 and 2025. I'd think the plan is to fill the 5th spot in 2024 with someone who has a good chance to replicate Gray's numbers from this year. Is that person also locked up for 2025? Varland is likely starter #6 for 2024, basically filling the Ober role from this year. If he's still in that role for 2025 that means the system has failed to produce more guys and that's not good. So, I think best case is to have him fill the Ober role in 2024 and move to the pen in 2025 if he hasn't taken the next step in 2024.
  10. chpettit19
    Do you work for the Twins? How do you know what they're teaching? They speak about a hard contact approach publicly, yes. But so do most teams. Remember those top 5 scoring offenses? They were also 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in slugging with 2 strikes. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th in ISO with 2 strikes. They kept hitting for power with 2 strikes. You may not like it, but it's the strategy the best offenses use. The Twins absolutely need to cut down the Ks, no doubt about it, but that's more about the quality of hitter that they have than their approach (in my opinion). The Art of Hitting is 25 years old. The game has changed. Time to accept that, sorry. Pitchers aren't throwing 2-0 fastballs anymore. Tony Gwynn would still be great. He'd be Luis Arraez, actually. But the stuff guys are throwing, and the pitch selections, are way different now than in 1998. They just are.
  11. chpettit19
    Does anyone know what their 2 runs or fewer, 3 runs or fewer, or 4 runs or fewer numbers look like for the 2nd half of the year? Just the total runs scored stat is a little misleading. The first half of the year especially they had their run totals built on massive games where they scored a ton, but were scoring 3 runs or fewer half the time. As for the playoffs, they scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of 6 games, 2 runs of fewer in 3 of 6, and more than 4 only once. It's not all on the offense, but that's very little margin for error for your pitchers. In comparison, the Rangers scored 3 runs or fewer in 3 of 12 games and the Diamondbacks scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of 12 games.
  12. chpettit19
    I'm not, it is causation. Getting on base and hitting for power wins. Top 5 scoring offenses in baseball this year (Braves, LAD, Rangers, Rays, Astros) were 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th in slugging. They were 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th in HRs. I don't know why people have such a problem with this. Who said anything about swinging for the fences regardless of the situation? Don't put your narrative into what I'm saying. Power wins. It's not some grand mystery. It's simply how it is. OBP and SLG are king. They're what every top offense has. And OBP isn't just taking walks, it's hitting the ball hard. Not just putting it in play by limiting Ks, but by hitting the ball hard. The Twins, and every good offense in baseball, aren't "swinging for the fences regardless of the situation" they're trying to hit the ball hard at all times. Because it's provably the best strategy for scoring runs and winning baseball games. Cleveland and Washington had the lowest K rates in baseball this year, but they also had some of the worst contact quality in baseball this year so they were 22nd and 23rd in OBP. Because "just putting the ball in play" like so many people want the Twins to do is actually not effective. Get on base and hit for power. If people were running around saying "the team that gets the most hits in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team that strikes out the least in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team that steals the most bases in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" or "the team with the most sac bunts in a playoff game wins 85% of the time" would people be fighting so hard about using those strategies? Nobody is saying to not ever use any other way to try to score, but power is the best way to score runs in baseball. Even more so in the playoffs. I don't get why that idea upsets people so much.
  13. chpettit19
    Technically Garver played just over half a season this year, but I certainly understand your point. I wouldn't be offering him anything crazy, but the chances of the Twins making it through 2024 with only Jeffers and Vazquez catching games is miniscule. Garver as a DH/1B/3rd C option is intriguing to me even if it's not super high on my priority list.
  14. chpettit19
    Mitch Garver is a free agent and sure looks to have something left to offer. But, other than him, there really isn't anyone worth discussing. Oh, and it's Trevor May.
  15. chpettit19
    Oh, and the Diamondbacks hit 2 homeruns last night. The Phillies didn't hit any. The Diamondbacks won the game of homerun last night. Not a great example to use.
  16. chpettit19
    Why are we just asking those 3 teams? The current Phillies team is 1 win away from back to back WS trips. Not sure that's a shining light of an example to prove your point here. Why don't we ask the current Rangers team? Or the last 7 Astros teams? Or the Braves from 2 years ago? Nobody is saying not to use stolen bases if you can, or to strike out constantly like the Twins and never just put the ball in play. But none of those other strategies even touch the success of hitting HRs. If you win 85% of your games by beating your opponent at 1 specific thing (and that thing also happens to be one of the "stickier" stats from the regular season to the postseason), why would you not be emphasizing that 1 thing? I get that the Twins are incredibly frustrating to watch because of their extreme 3 true outcomes results, but that doesn't mean that building a team around hitting for power isn't the right thing to do. They need better overall hitters, and to cut their K numbers for sure. But arguing against a strategy that wins 85% of games is wild to me. The best win % of any MLB team ever is 76.3 for the 1906 Cubs. Postseason teams who out homer their opponent win basically 10% more than the most successful team in MLB history, but we should be looking to use strategies other than hitting homers? Speed guys should use their speed. Contact guys should hit for contact. Yes. Don't be a power hitter if you can't hit for power. The post I responded to claimed the Twins "play homerun" instead of baseball and they lose because of it so they shouldn't "play homerun" anymore. The truth is the teams that win the World Series are the teams that are best at "playing homerun." Part of being successful is also having the pitching to win the game of "homerun" in the postseason. Also is nice to have guys on base during the game of "homerun." But, at the end of the day, "playing homerun" is unquestionably the best way to win postseason games. You want to be able to find ways to win the games that end up tied in the game of "homerun," (like Arizona has twice against Philly), but that doesn't mean the best strategy isn't still to win the game of "homerun." I don't understand how anyone can argue against an 85% win rate.
  17. chpettit19
    I don't know that it's prioritizing stolen bases that is needed, but prioritizing athleticism. Stealing bases can be a huge boost, but I'd be happy if they could just start with going from 1st to 3rd more often. The teams that took advantage of the new bases and disengagement rules were the ones that have spent the last few years trying to build athletic lineups. That put them in a position to take advantage of the new rules. Slugging is still going to be a vital part of an offense, but finding guys who can still run while slugging is what the Twins need to work on. Lewis and Julien are a good start. Lee isn't fast, but he's a more well rounded player than their typical slugger profile. Jenkins and ERod are good athletes. I think they're heading in the right direction, but they've got more work to do.
  18. chpettit19
    A few of you have made very good points on Jeffers, and I think I've changed and would be on board moving him, assuming the return is worth it. If you can get an impact bat or top end starter for Jeffers+ I'd do it. Especially if that bat is a CFer. Jeffers alone won't get it done, but Jeffers plus a mid-level prospect or 2 may be enough to make something happen.
  19. chpettit19
    I 100% agree they need to cut down on Ks, but they were actually 12th in baseball in OBP. Not bad considering their K numbers. Cleveland and Washington had the lowest K% in baseball and 22nd and 23rd in OBP.
  20. chpettit19
    One any player can't carry a team in the postseason. Yordan Alvarez did everything he could to carry Houston, and they're now done. One starting pitcher can't carry a team in the postseason either. Should they not try to get superstar starters or bats? I'm not going to respond anymore. There is a difference between bad, ok, good, great, and elite players at every position. And it matters at every position. Even the bullpen.
  21. chpettit19
    Who said anything about forcing a win by using a skill set you might not possess? I didn't say having Jason Tyner try to hit HRs is the best way to win, I said hitting homeruns is. And it's a provable fact. Until you can show a strategy that has a better than 85% win rate then I'm going to stick with hitting homeruns being the best way to win playoff games.
  22. chpettit19
    And they knew this was coming. This didn't sneak up on them. That's my point. They're a massive, billion dollar organization. They had to pivot. They had years to work on this pivot. If they aren't prepared to handle this situation it's a failure on their part. This is how businesses work. Either they've done their jobs or they haven't. If they haven't figured out how to continue to grow their business the new head Pohlad better start making changes in the business department. This wasn't an overnight, out of nowhere surprise. Cord cutting has been happening for a long time. The shift away from cable is something the Pohlads should absolutely be expecting their business department to have multiple plans to combat. MLB itself has had a team working on this for years. The Twins have options. The Twins have known this was coming. We should expect that the Twins are a well run business and thus they're prepared to adjust their business models as the times change. I won't accept a payroll cut because of lost TV revenue when they've had ample time to prepare for this moment and not lose revenue. They have handsomely paid business employees who's jobs it is to secure these sorts of revenue streams. They should have a plan for this even though they're going to milk all the pity they can out of fans for how hard it is to not just be handed a contract extension from Bally's.
  23. chpettit19
    The Twins used Pagan twice this postseason. They were losing both games when they put him in. Jeff Hoffman has been used 7 times, 4 of them he went less than an inning, including 3 appearances of .1 innings, one of which he blew the lead. He's pitched in the 8th inning 3 times, 1 he faced 2 batters and blew the lead, another he faced 1 batter, the other his team was up 6-1. I don't mean to be rude, but I'm not going to continue with this discussion. I appreciate the back and forth, but we simply don't agree. You're not going to convince me that building a pen full of Pagan and Varlands is the same as building a pen full of Duran and Haders. Maeda was used twice, while losing, and wasn't particularly good in either appearance. Paddack was used twice, while losing, but was quite good. Varland faced 4 batters and got 2 outs in the WC round and wasn't trusted to be used at all in the ALDS. They're not at all a good example of your point that relievers are all the same.
  24. chpettit19
    Over the last 5 years the team that hits the most homeruns in a playoff game has won over 85% of the games. Not sure your "playing homerun" theory actually holds up to reality. Homeruns are unquestionably the best way to win playoff games.
  25. chpettit19
    I put literally 0 weight on a 12 inning sample size, sorry.
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