chpettit19

When Keuchel was good his K% were in the 20s. When he was bad his K% were 13-15. He may be "used to not striking guys out," but he wasn't good when he wasn't striking guys out. Unless you think he's bouncing back to a 20% K rate you're looking at him being who he has been the last 2 years when he had 5.28 and 9.20 ERAs. Yes, Ryan needed a reset. Is he hurt? I don't know. But clearly something was off. Dallas Keuchel isn't likely to be anymore valuable than SWR or Varland or any other AAA guy that can come up and throw to a 5+ ERA over 5 innings a start. His "approach and experience" sure didn't save him the last couple years. Sinkers that miss up in the zone go 105 MPH 15 rows deep, too. And giving up 3 runs without homers in an inning where they bat around and you throw 35 pitches isn't exactly ideal for saving a tiring pen, either. Is there some significantly better option? Probably not unless you think Varland can get back to his April-May performance. And maybe Keuchel walks this tightrope for a handful of starts while striking basically nobody out, giving up hard contact left and right, but still not giving up a ton of runs. The odds are severely against that though. And he's no more likely to succeed than any of the other AAA pitchers we could run out there.

This post is actively arguing that his stuff is back at it's 2015-2017 range, has numerous "like or love" upvotes, and there's a whole bunch of replies on it agreeing with the premise.

Yeah, I don't see any signs of him being an adequate defender anywhere on the dirt. It really makes me wonder what he looked like in the grass. He's not overly fast, but he's not Vazquez either. 2B and LF are the only options I see for him. And if they're sticking with him at 2B when he looks like this I can't imagine how he looked in LF. I haven't seen enough of Severino in the field to have a thought there. It's very weird that they're struggling to find guys who can play 1B. Not a good sign for the fielding abilities of these other IF prospects if we don't think they can flip over and cover 1B adequately.

Latest I've seen is still sprained knee, but they hope it's a day to day thing. Haven't heard that they've said anything about the MRI results which could obviously change a lot.

If I'm remembering correctly, there was talk that Julien had been out taking grounders at 1B before a game or 2 in the last couple weeks. Rocco said he didn't know about it, and wasn't the one who asked him to do it, and they had no plans to play him there. I think with his feet and hands he'd make a terrible 1B. I don't think he'd be any good at shifting his feet around the bag to be able to adjust to throws up or down the line, and I don't think his hands would be good for picking low throws. OF is the only shift from 2B that I see for him. No idea how well he judges a ball, but them cutting the experiment off real quick in the minors, and never trying again, isn't encouraging. He's a DH that can fill in at 2B on occasion. Most definitely not ideal, but you find a way to get that bat in your lineup.

Selfishly I hope they keep Lewis in AAA through Saturday cuz I'm going to the game and would really like to see him and Lee play next to each other. Beyond that I think it would come down to how long he's really expected to be out for. How bad is the injury? Where's Alcala at on his return? Can we 60-day him and give one of the older AAA guys who aren't on the 40-man a tryout for a couple weeks? Which of them can play 1B so are even an option? I just don't like that this likely leads to more Gallo.

Farmer is Arb eligible in '24, not under contract. They could simply non-tender him. I'm not saying that's what they'd do, but they have no financial obligation to Kyle Farmer for 2024 at this point in time. I agree there's incentive for Lee to break camp with the team next year. Julien is looking like a top 2 or 3 finisher in AL ROY voting this year (especially with Jung being hurt now) and he will most likely just get credit for a full year of service while the Twins get nothing back for him. Those early promotion incentives are pretty big. Either call him up from the jump, or let him sit in AAA for half the year. I'd bet on them sending him to AAA, but I hope they give him a real shot at an opening day spot (assuming he adjusts quickly and does well in AAA to end the year).

He's got the approach down. Agree 100% with @SwainZag that he needs to figure out lefties if he wants to be looked at in the same view as Soto and Betts. And he needs to pick up his contact percentage. That can be done by cutting his swing down a little with 2 strikes to play for more contact, but it may also just come naturally from more reps and getting a better feel for individual pitchers and their stuff. Will be fun to track his career and see how he adjusts.

Sorry, I added the link after originally posting without it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter-team&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=5&sortDir=desc Those are team by team breakdowns. There's not a single team averaging 92 MPH in exit velo. And only 1 over 90. Those are the facts as the high speed cameras in every MLB park reports.

I think google is way off. There are 31 players in MLB right now averaging at least 92 MPH in exit velo. Edit to add: there is no team averaging 92 MPH. Here's the team by team exit velo numbers for this year.

Actually, most of the responses around here have been the opposite. One start, knee jerk reaction, Keuchel is back to 2015 Cy Young winner.

So 9 instead of 11. In 5 innings that's basically 2 balls an inning. He was giving up a lot of well hit balls.

Lopez and Gray and the rest of the staff also strike hitters out. That's the point of this article. When you're only striking out 10-15% (or 0% in his first start) of the guys you face while also giving up hard contact it's different.

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls."

I think nearly 100% of Twins fans agree it's time to move on from Gallo, but, in the middle of the game, Rocco only has the guys on his roster to choose from, and Gallo was the only other guy he feels comfortable putting at 1B after Solano went down.

Oh, unless you're winning the WS every year fans will complain. But there's a difference between winning 85+ games while battling for your division every year then struggling in the playoffs and finishing under .500 half the time while not winning a playoff game in 20 years. If the Twins had the last 23 years the Cards have had many of us wouldn't complain so loud. I just think you're missing a lot of context when comparing those 2 orgs if you just say they've both struggled in the playoffs recently.

Ok. This will be the first time since 2017 the Cards finish under .500. The Twins have done it 3 times.

The Twins have finished under .500 more times under this regime than the Cards have in the entire 21st century. Not sure we want to do a lot of comparing the Twins to the Cards.

October 3 sounds like a good start date to me...

I can't imagine him being super good at picking poor throws with the hands he's shown. And his feet are terrible. Can't picture him easily changing his feet on off the mark throws to be able to best stretch in one direction or the other.

Agreed on Julien and Lewis. I think Brooks Lee has an All Star season in him, but as a 3B I see mostly just a solid regular. Certainly useful, and a very nice outcome, but I don't see a star. I'm not sold on any of the older AAA players being stars. Would be surprise to even get an MLB regular out of them. I would be giving them opportunities over the likes of Gallo right now, though. Agreed Kirilloff has star potential. Don't see it in Miranda or Larnach. Think Wallner Ks to much to ever be a star, but wouldn't be shocked by an All Star season in his best year. Jenkins looks like a natural. Really hoping to see him go Jackson Holiday on things and race up to AA by the end of next year. But all of those teenage to 20 year old kids are miles and miles away. Every system has a handful of teenagers with sky high potential. Until they reach AA, and have some semblance of success there, they're just not close enough for me to have any faith in them even reaching the majors. The pitching is where I see the biggest hole. Absolutely value in developing #3 starters, but you need #1s and 2s to win in the postseason. I loved the Prielipp pick, but man is that kid going through it with his elbow. Raya is nice looking, but getting absolutely shelled right now. Very young, and clearly has talent, but he's not a big kid and the deck is stacked against him. Soto is intriguing, but, again, so far away. Canterino I think becomes the number 2 to Duran's number 1 in the pen. Hoping at some point next year. I think his starting days are over. Too old to take the time to build up that inning count and to be able to trust his arm holding up. I put him in the pen in the AFL this year, and give him a legit chance to make the Twins out of camp next year. I'd love to see him, Jax, and Duran be the Herrera, Davis, Holland of the Twins for the next couple years. But, to tie this into the FO talk, I think their obsession with platooning actually holds some of these guys back, and stops them from being stars. I have no idea if Kirilloff, Julien, or Wallner will be able to hit major league lefties well enough to just plant at the top of the order everyday, but I do know never letting them see them isn't going to improve their chances. I want 5 guys that you put in the 1 through 5 hole everyday. No scheduled off days. No platooning at the top of the lineup. 5 guys who play everyday, and hit in the same spots everyday. They'll tell you when they need a day off. I don't subscribe to the idea that hitting 2 one day and 4 the next effects the guys that much, but there's no need to move them around if you have 5 guys like that who can slot in. Maybe it's Julien-Lewis-Kirilloff-Correa-Wallner. Maybe those 5 are good enough to anchor a championship lineup for the next 5 years. I have no faith that this leadership team would ever just put them in those 5 spots and let it rip, though. They have to tinker (I don't think it's just Rocco making lineups on his own). They have to "play the numbers." I'm fine if you go with 2 or 3 platoon guys and your catcher in the lower spots. But if you're platooning in the top 5 spots you either don't have a good enough offense, or you're over managing. I think they draft pretty well. I think they have some very talented guys. But I think they shoot themselves in the foot with all their extra tinkering. Platooning is nice and all, but pinch hitters are significantly worse than guys who were in the lineup to start. Bringing in a cold bat to face elite relievers at the end of games may give you the platoon advantage, but that advantage is washed away by the disadvantage of it being a pinch hitter. Will they adjust away from that in the playoffs? That's what I'll be watching. It's why I don't like their ceiling. They are good at a number of things, but, what seems to me at least, their core processes are flawed in a way that holds back their skills in other areas.

Not sure what you're getting at in the first paragraph. There are numerous ways to build competitive, sustainable rosters, yes. Having a huge payroll doesn't give you that big of a leg up, yes. That's my point. Good FOs can build sustainable teams in a variety of different ways, and in any market size. Yeah, this year is incredibly disappointing for Cards fans, but they've been a model franchise for a very long time, and the odds are they'll be right back at the top of that division very soon. The Twins don't have to be the Rays. There are a whole bunch of teams run better than the Twins right now. And they're run in a variety of ways. I don't know how many times I have to say I acknowledge that it's easier to find someone worse than someone better. I don't view the system the same as you. They have very few star level prospects in the system. Turning out more league average guys and trying to mix and match your way to them being good enough to truly compete isn't a process I think is sustainable. Yes, the 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine the future. But they've had 7 years before this with some really high picks to determine the present. And the present isn't good enough for me. 7 years is an incredibly long time in the world of professional sports. I don't think they've been a disaster. I think they've done quite well at finding big league players in the later rounds. I think they've been terrible at finding stars. The question of this thread is if a successful last 2 months, and a wild card series win, would change my mind on the FO. My answer remains "likely not." But how they go about doing things could change my mind. But I'm not going to ever be on board with "well it could be worse so just don't try for better" as a reason for keeping a FO or player around. Winning a historically bad division while struggling to stay above .500 for 2/3 of the season when you've had 7 years to implement your strategy, and build your team, is not impressive. Could it be worse? Absolutely. But there's way more room above them for it to be better, too. I think we've hit the end of our road, though. You don't want to risk getting worse, and believe in this FO more than me. I want to take a risk for greatness, and believe this FO has some faulty processes that I believe lower their peak. Reasonable minds can disagree. We can certainly agree we hope they win a playoff game or 2 this year, though!

I think it's a 99% chance they pick up his option. They believe in Max, and his current hot streak has confirmed their beliefs. They're not dumping him for nothing. Will he be with the Twins in 2024? That likely depends on their belief in Larnach, and what kind of trade offers they receive for both over the winter. I'd put it at 80/20 that he's standing in RF wearing a Twins uniform on opening day 2024.

I wouldn't let this FO switch philosophies and tank, no. Again, I don't care about market size. It doesn't matter nearly as much as people act like it does. It's certainly nicer to be bigger, but I'm pretty sure you can survey Angels, Mets, Rays, and Cards fans and find that the Rays and Cards fans are much happier with their teams than the Angels and Mets despite being in significantly smaller markets. Well run teams succeed in every market size. Ownership hasn't "loosened the purse strings." They're still in the middle of payroll sizes. They're a mid-market team spending to mid-league payroll sizes. San Diego loosened their purse strings. The Twins are operating the same way they have for decades when it comes to payroll size. The pure total of the payroll is an awful way to judge spending. If they jump into the top 10 in payroll size they'll have loosened the strings. This FO has just chosen to spend it differently by giving out bigger deals than previous regimes were willing to do. I acknowledged that the odds are better that they'd be worse than Falvey and Levine. I don't care. You do. And that's totally fine. I don't think this FO can deliver on the "sustainable winner" idea. Others, including you it seems, do. That's why we have TD. To come and share our differing opinions. They've had 7 years. They've improved the org. They haven't been a disaster. But I think they've peaked. And their peak isn't high enough for me. So, as of now, I'd move on in an attempt to find someone with a higher peak, knowing full well I may find someone with a much lower peak.

Spending more money is an ownership decision, but running the team better is a FO or manager task. I am currently in the "fire them" ranks. But I'm not blindly stating that they're terrible, or of the belief that it's easy to find someone better. They're an average FO and manager. They're in the middle 10 of the 30 teams. I'm just someone who wants more than "average," and is willing to take the risk of worse for the shot at better. To keep with football analogies, I am happier having Kirk Cousins than having Baker Mayfield. But I'd rather take a shot at finding a Mahomes than just stick with Kirk Cousins. I know the odds are better that I find the next Mayfield than the next Mahomes, but I'd still take that risk. And I'd keep taking that risk until I find the next Mahomes. I'd rather be the Cornhuskers than the Hawkeyes. I don't love the college football analogy because there's so many teams, and so many other factors, that the differences between the top and bottom there are WAY bigger than the differences between the top and bottom of MLB teams. But I'd rather keep taking chances at finding the next best thing than stick with having no shot at ever reaching the peak of the mountain. Like I said, it's a tough analogy because it's nearly impossible to turn those programs into Ohio State, Georgia, or Alabama because Iowa and Nebraska are stepping stones to bigger and better things. They're the minor leagues in their own sport. But MLB teams are on much more even footing. You don't often see guys reach the very top of 1 org, succeed, and then get poached by another org. It does happen, but not like in college football. I don't want to be Detroit, KC, CHW, Colorado, Oakland, or Anaheim. But I also don't want to continue being this .500ish team mess either. I want to be the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros. I don't think this FO can get us there. The next guys may not be able to get us to this .500ish mess. So I'd fire them, too. This team winning a wild card series played entirely at home likely won't change my mind. Winning more than that might, but it depends on how they do it. I have concerns over their regular season processes. But if they show a different process in the postseason this year I'd rethink things. If they overuse Vazquez, pinch hit endlessly, and go bonkers with platoons in the postseason I will be less likely to change my mind. If they only throw their 3 or 4 best relievers and never touch the bottom 4 outside of blowouts, and put their best 9 hitters in the lineup everyday and don't try to platoon 7 of them I would have to reassess my opinions. I look forward to the chance to see what they do in the postseason so we can pick this debate up again in November.