chpettit19

I love the "it was the juiced ball" argument that is always used to diminish the 2019 team. They also had a top 10 pitching staff that year that was decimated when they got to the playoffs, unfortunately. I'm not a big Rocco guy. I'm an "analytics guy," but I think this regime (Falvine and Rocco being the head guys) goes overboard with it. But every team in 2019 had the same balls. Just like they all have the same balls this year. Suggesting we ignore his 2019 record because the balls the entire league used were different than they are this year is just cherry picking the stats you want to use. And if the argument turns to lineups full of HR bashing guys then it's not Rocco you're upset with, it's Falvine. Rocco doesn't pick his players or the strengths they have.

That's fair, but casual Twins fans don't really care about that all that much. Would've been better had I not mentioned the Rays at all, but I was replying to a statement that this is a series between 2 playoff teams so having a small crowd is disappointing. I think the Twins basically locking their postseason position up makes these being 2 playoff teams not really mean much. The Twins aren't really playing for anything anymore this regular season. The Rays aren't a team with a national star, and the Twins have locked in the 3 seed for all intents and purposes. Beyond just seeing 2 solid to good teams play there's not a lot of drama for a casual fan to get behind right now. Drama draws fans.

I wonder what the crowds would look like if the division wasn't so close to being officially wrapped up. There's not a lot of drama left in the central. While the Rays and Twins are both playoff teams, they aren't really playing for much anymore. Especially the Twins. The Twins aren't catching the top 2 seeds so at this point there's very little drama in where their season is going. May see different crowd sizes if Cleveland and Detroit were a more serious threat.

Wild Card Round: Game 1- Oct 3, Game 2- Oct 4, Game 3- Oct 5 (if necessary) ALDS: Game 1- Oct 7, Game 2- Oct 8, Game 3- Oct 10, Game 4- Oct 11 (if necessary), Game 5- Oct 13 (if necessary) ALCS: Game 1- Oct 15, Game 2- Oct 16, Game 3- Oct 18, Game 4- Oct 19, Game 5- Oct 20 (if necessary), Game 6- Oct 22 (if necessary), Game 7- Oct 23 (if necessary) WS: Game 1- Oct 27, Game 2- Oct 28, Game 3- Oct 30, Game 4- Oct 31, Game 5- Nov 1 (if necessary), Game 6- Nov 3 (if necessary), Game 7- Nov 4 (if necessary) With those dates in mind I'd pencil in: Lopez for WC Game 1, ALDS Game 2, ALDS Game 5/ALCS Game 1 Gray for WC Game 2, ALDS Game 3 Ryan for WC Game 3/ALDS Game 1 Ober for ALDS Game 1/ALDS Game 4 Depending on how things play out it'd be either Ryan or Ober for ALDS Game 4 (Ryan if he throws WC Game 3, Ober if there's no WC Game 3). Things get too complicated with how to slot guys into the ALCS depending on how many games the WC and ALDS go. But that'd be my plan for the first 2 series. This assumes Ober comes back and looks close to his usual self from most of this year. If he doesn't I'd go "bullpen game" for his spot in the rotation and look to get 1 time through the order out of a few different guys.

Ober's lack of innings pitched has always been because of injuries, not the Twins artificially limiting his innings (until this year). He's going to break the 140 innings mark this year. He won't have any limits put on him next year. The opportunity is there for him as long as he stays healthy.

Yeah, I just think the whole Boras thing is blown way out of proportion. Boras wouldn't be very good at his job if he's using a team DFAing a guy playing at Gallo's current level against them. It's certainly better to be on his good side than his bad side, but he's not going to tell the Twins to pound sand when Kirilloff is up for an extension because the Twins DFA'd Gallo in September after the last 3 months he's had. If the FO can't negotiate with agents after they cut one of their guys they shouldn't be running a team. I think this is a "depth and flexibility" decision, and I think it's been the wrong one for months. But, unless it's the Pohlads saying they can't eat his deal, this has always been a baseball decision. I'll be pretty shocked if they go so aggressive that they IL someone tomorrow who's been playing all year. And even if all they're looking for is a warm body to "fill time" there's better options than Gallo. Call up a young guy and get them experience. While the Twins likely have this division wrapped up they can't just phone in the next 3 weeks. That's not how you prepare for the playoffs. Give Correa, or whoever, some extra off days? Sure. But don't shut them down. Call Larnach up if all you're looking for is a warm body. At least he can get some more reps before next year. I don't see what the FO thinks rostering Gallo is good for. His current usage doesn't suggest Rocco sees it either.

I'm pretty surprised, actually, very surprised, to see this much pushback from posters on the idea that Gallo should be DFA'd tomorrow for Kirilloff. Doubts that it may happen? With how this FO holds onto vets for perceived depth, we should all have doubts that it will happen. But I'm very surprised to see so many people suggesting it actually makes sense to continue rostering Gallo, not only for September, but the postseason as well. If you're no better than 3rd on the depth chart at any position you're not providing real depth, you're just a body. And Gallo isn't better than 3rd on the depth chart anywhere. There's no situation in which he should be a pinch hitter in a game that means something, and they have far better baserunners for any pinch running needs. Gallo brings no uncoverable skill to this roster. It's time for him to go.

There's literally a 0% chance Joey Gallo receives a QO. The QO will be nearly double what he got paid this year. There's no 3 week hot streak possible to make teams forget about his last 3 months and double his salary. The QO isn't something they need to factor in in any way, shape, or form.

Barring injury, or a sudden cratering of performance, I think Lopez, Gray, and Ryan will be setup as their 3 starters for the WC round with the hope that Ryan actually ends up pitching game 1 of the divisional round. I think Ober and Maeda are going to battle it out the 2nd half of September for the chance to be the #4 starter in the postseason. The other likely headed to the pen as a 2 inning weapon if/when needed, or the 5th starter if they get into some longer series and guys can't keep going on short rest. Barring injury, or sudden cratering of performance, I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan have postseason spots locked up. Varland and Ober/Maeda likely also have jobs come October as well. The question then is if they carry 1 or 2 more pitchers. Who gets those spots likely comes down to if Stewart comes back, and how he looks if he does, and if they want a 2nd lefty (I hope they do), which is likely Funderburk's job to lose at this point. Wild card round will be very interesting to see how many arms they choose to keep. If you need more than 6 or 7 in that round you're probably in trouble, and if you need more than 9 you're probably toast. I'd think they'd load up on position players for that round to really let Rocco play his pinch hitting game. I'd guess they still carry 11 arms for that series, but they better not have to use anywhere near that many.

It's been time. Don't expect to see him go much below the 4 or 5 hole, but it's been time for a while to drop him down to 6th or further. He's not currently one of the 5 best hitters on this team.

Guess we got our answer to how long he could last in CF this year. This is getting real depressing for him. I can't imagine the frustration he must be going through. I'd guess retirement hasn't seriously crossed his mind, but it can't be a thought that's too far down the road for him if this doesn't improve. I think it's time to do any procedure they think can help, and give him from now until February off. This can't be who he is the rest of his career. It's not tenable for anyone involved.

They also need offense next year and the years after. They need more talent overall, not to move the talent from one spot to another. It's totally fine if you see a good offense without Julien. I don't. And we already know good pitching without the offense to back it doesn't work. I don't see a team that needs to move talent around, I see a team that needs to add talent. They can't keep trading offense for pitching. They don't have enough offense for that.

Yeah, we just don't see the prospects the same way. Nothing wrong with that, we just won't agree. I don't see their realistic ceilings anywhere near where you appear to. These are not top 100 type prospects we're talking about outside of Lee, and maybe Martin. It's just the nature of prospects. Most of them fail. Especially the average ones.

I understand that, and very much have the same concern. I don't think the solution to that problem is trading your best hitter, though. They cleared a spot for Miranda this year so it's not like they never play young guys. Had spots ready and waiting for Kirilloff and Lewis the second they were ready. Gallo and Julien were/are poorly handled situations. But there are other young guys who've they've handed the reigns to. Duran was on the opening day roster last year. I just see some of these ideas as overcompensating.

I want to see the young kids audition, too. I don't want to go into a season built on them, though. Cuz chances are Martin, Prato, Williams, and Severino aren't more than "eh" hitters just like the vets. So you've then traded away your best bat because you didn't want a most-of-the-time DH. I don't think the idea of trading Julien is crazy, and understand the desire for a big time young arm. I don't see the depth that some of you claim there is. Going into 2024 with that roster sounds like an absolute disaster to me. Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year? And if it doesn't where's your depth? 30 year old Stevenson? Noah Miller? 2nd year Keaschell? To me that plan is a drastic over adjustment to our Gallo and Julien frustrations this year. The truth about those prospects is that you're not likely finding more than 2 of them (likely Martin and Lee) who are even as good as Farmer or Solano. And if/when they fail you're down to even lesser prospects trying to fill in. The Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and completely botched their chances to test young players the last 2 years. But I don't think overcompensating by going almost completely young, unproven, and untested is the answer unless you're not really trying to compete in 2024 and are just testing guys out for 2025 and beyond. There's a middle ground and that's what I'm trying to advocate for.

Well it doesn't just have to be Julien. The real point is that with Buxton back in CF there aren't too many guys for not enough spots. You can rotate Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, and Kirilloff all through the DH and IF spots. I certainly understand the desire for another pitcher, but I don't think this offense is good, or deep, enough for me to think trading possibly their best bat is a move that upgrades the team overall. We've seen what a bunch of "eh" hitters gets this team even when they have an elite rotation. Gets them to barely .500. I'm sure others see the offense differently, though.

If Buxton goes back to CF isn't the move to just put Julien at DH?

I see their depth differently than you. Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, Correa, Lee is a pretty nice IF/DH rotation. I'm a gigantic Polanco fan, and think he's the key to the lineup this year, but he's not here for more than next year at the most. After that where is the "depth?" Willi Castro or Nick Gordon? Martin's bad infield glove? Miranda's horrible infield glove? Yunior Severino's terrible infield glove? If Lee is one of their best 9 hitters at the start of next season I don't want him in AAA, but him starting the year there doesn't mean they have some crazy depth that can easily replace their best bat. We've been talking about logjams and depth for years around here. Their refusal to move on from vets early this year is the first time it's ever been an actual problem. And they've been proven right with their Kepler stubbornness. Gallo is still crazy to me. The Twins have plenty of names (Schobel and Keaschall as others) that we can throw around and call depth, but if they're not actually good players, or nearly as good as the guy you're suggesting trading, it's not as simple as "more great starters are better than depth." As much as we don't like to think about it, there's a very real chance that Lee simply isn't a great, or even good, MLB hitter. We've seen what the lineup looks like when it's full the "depth," and the best rotation in baseball barely kept them at .500. "Depth" is only replaceable if you have equal parts to replace the ones you move. I don't think the Twins have equal parts to replace Julien's bat. And I don't think it's particularly close even. If you trade Julien and Lewis, Correa, or Kirilloff's health/performance problems don't remedy themselves there's no "depth" they have that's making up for it. You're looking at replacing them with similarly poor gloves and significantly worse bats than Julien. Having a bunch of names is not the same as having replaceable depth. But I get that many people don't see their depth the same way I do.

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever. Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

I assume you're referring to the Angels. They have a .296 winning percentage in August while trying to win. Changing waiver wire rules isn't going to stop tanking in MLB. Tanking for a month is not a concern that should cause rule changes. Edit to add: and they aren't tanking in the "trying to get the #1 overall pick" sort of way, they were just trying to get under the luxury tax threshold. Not a problem many teams have.

Martin doesn't need to be up today, but I'd really like to see him added to the 40-man today. I'm fine waiting til tomorrow to add him to the 28-man, though. Very highly doubt that happens, though.

You go to the back of the line when you get a claim, but the order resets based on record every month. Solves the vast majority of this.

Every team is allowed to spend as much as they want. Choosing not to spend on a certain player is very different than by rule not having the chance to.

I'm pretty sure the MLB waiver order used to reset monthly. Or something close to that. Back when the league you were in mattered, too.

Pretty shocking to see the Guardians add to payroll today. Not great for the Twins. Have a fight on their hands again!