chpettit19

Why not start Varland in game #2 because it's a game we're likely to lose anyway against Framber? Twins are much worse against lefties than righties so we should assume they'll lose to the lefty as well. Save the "two aces" for games 3 and 4. But then Verlander will be back for game 5 so we'll likely lose that game anyway and are just doomed. Sarcasm^ You don't save anyone, or use players because you're "likely to lose anyway" for any postseason game. You take your best and you put them against their best as often as possible in the postseason. I'm fascinated by all the people on these boards talking about doing anything other than starting Lopez games 2 and 5, and Gray in game 3 so he'd be lined up for game 1 of the ALCS. You throw your best guys as often as possible, and you don't consider playing anyone who isn't your best option at anytime from now until the season ends.

The team friendly values later in the contract are counterbalanced by the player friendly values at the front end. Julio Rodriguez would be making about 750k this year and a couple mil next year. Instead he's making 10 mil this year and 18 mil next year. That's 25+ million in extra cash in his pocket in the first 2 years of the deal alone. If you're a guy with 2 ACL surgeries before you're 24 there's certainly a little incentive to lock up $100+ million. Even if Lewis signs on into his early 30s he's still looking at being able to sign a massive deal. Xander Bogarts and Manny Machado just signed 11 year deals at the age of 30. If Lewis signs until he's 32 for 150 mil now he will still be able to sign for 300+ mil (contracts aren't going to go down) after this deal if he performs how we all hope and expect. There's certainly some motivation to lock in 9 figures at the age of 24 and guarantee yourself generational wealth while still being able to hit the absolute jackpot on your next deal. Ohtani just set the record for highest arbitration award ever at 30 mil. Mookie Betts got 27 mil. Juan Soto agreed to a 23 mil deal. Lewis is set to make 750ish thousand a year on average the next 2 years. If he keeps up his performance his arb years are probably in the 8, 15, 25 range per year. That totals about 50 mil. Let's say Boras projects free agent contracts to be at about 40 mil per year for Lewis types when he hits free agency. Let's say the Twins want to buy out 2 free agent years. So 80 mil total possible contract amount if everything goes perfectly for Lewis over the next 5 years. For those 7 years he's looking at 130 mil in earnings if he maintains his current production. That's just over 14.25 mil a year for him over those 7 years. You don't think there'd be any incentive on his side to lock in $130,000,000 after having seen himself play a grand total of 72 major league games at age 24? There's a lot of incentive for him to sign. If they drop 7 or 8 years at 15 to 18 mil per year in front of him he'd have to be very tempted to sign that. And 15 to 18 mil is not a huge number for the Twins to spend as long as he's reasonably healthy for those 7 or 8 years. It's something both sides should definitely be considering.

Kirilloff debuted in the postseason against the Astros (went 1-4) 3 years ago. If he's still feeling nerves so badly it makes him ineffective now it's not a great sign for Alex.

Then I'm not sure what you're saying isn't accurate in my earlier post.

But Julien isn't taking the throw from Polanco there. You don't have the guy running the opposite direction from first base taking a throw at 2B, you have the guy who started behind the base who's heading towards first take the throw. They've been practicing that for years. It's how they do it in spring training and it's how they do it in practice during the season. Carlos Correa's responsibility on that play is to cover second, and that's what he's doing when the ball goes under Polanco's glove.

Falvey certainly made it sound like they're leaning 13/13 for this series in his press conference. I'd think there's a strong debate being had since it's a 5 game series with 2 off days, but from the way he talked at the presser it sounded to me like they're leaning 13 pitchers. I thought 12 was too many for the WC round, but they went with that. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Lopez wouldn't be on short rest for game 5 so I'd fully expect him to start that game with no question. I'd start Ober game 1 and Ryan game 4, but will not at all be surprised if your setup is what actually happens.

You've said that he was "just standing there" on a few threads now. Have you actually gone and looked at the play? I'm not saying it's the greatest ever, but he certainly wasn't "being a little lazy." He was covering 2B which was his responsibility on that play. They were shifted as far right as they could be for the lefty hitter. He started the play behind 2B, took 2 immediate steps to his right then started going towards 2B to field any possible throw there. His responsibility was absolutely not to backup Jorge on that play. Other players would certainly have made that play. Not a large number, but there are other guys. But don't bash him for not backing up the play when that wasn't his responsibility. His responsibility was to cover 2B since Julien was deep in the hole at 2B.

How is range a "non-measurable talent?" It's actually quite easy to measure. How far can you get in a set amount of time? We're able to measure where a player was standing when the ball was hit, how hard the ball was hit, at what angle the ball was hit, what direction the ball was hit, how long it took the ball to get from the bat to any point on the field, and how far the player had to travel in that amount of time to get to the ball. Pretty easy to compare that all to other players and how much ground they're able to travel in the same amount of time. It's really simple math to calculate range. Now defensive stats are wildly untrustworthy in single season sample sizes at this point. They're all based on very different things, and learning how each is calculated is very important when deciding how trustworthy they are. But suggesting that we can't measure this stuff is simply false. We can measure them. The questions surround how to interpret the collected data and form it into a meaningful stat. They're improving on that side of things, but definitely aren't there yet. But range is incredibly easy to measure.

All the data says it is absolutely a thing. Hitters are pitched to differently in Colorado because the ball moves differently. There is a well studied drop in production (below their normal away from Coors performance) the first couple games after a team leaves Coors and readjusts to sea level. Should the Twins use that as an excuse for scoring 5 runs in 2 games? Not really. But the leaving Coors Field effect is absolutely a thing.

Would be nice to have one of these bats continue the dominant stretch Lewis, Martin, and Julien have the system on in the AFL. The pitching there is nothing to write home about, but the guys who truly dominate that league at the plate tend to be legit major leaguers in the near future. I don't mean just be good, but truly dominate. The Twins have had 3 guys do it recently, and 2 of them are massive catalysts for the current major league team, and many of us hope the 3rd guy opens 2024 on the major league roster. Keeping that trend going would be great.

It will be interesting to see Houston's roster for the series. Framber obviously gets game 1 or 2, but they also have 3 other lefties on their 40-man. Matt Gage only threw 6.2 major league innings this year. Parker Mushinski threw 14.2. And Bennett Sousa through 9. That's not an impressive amount of innings, but the Astros know the Twins tendencies, and I'd be shocked if they aren't carrying at least 1, if not 2, of those guys for the series. If you fear the lefties more than the righties in the Twins lineup (which I think everyone does), and you know you can very likely get at least 2 lefties out of the lineup anytime you want by putting in a lefty of your own, why wouldn't you carry them to be able to take advantage of the Twins being so predictable? Houston does have the starters to not have to worry about it a ton as they expect Framber and Verlander especially to be able to handle any lineup, but I'd think you'd carry a lefty or 2 in the pen just in case one of those guys struggles, or to be able to be more strategic with Javier/Brown/France in game 3. Starting a lefty opener in game 3 would be an interesting strategy as well for Houston.

Don't play games with this. Put your best pitchers out in the playoffs as often as possible. Worry about game 3, or game 1, when you have to. There's nothing set in stone that just because we all expect Ryan to start game 3 if it's needed that means he's the game 1 starter against Houston. Put your best option out there in each game and win series as quickly as you can. Anything can happen in any given game, you don't play with things, you just put your guys out there and advance as quickly as possible.

I think 8-10 years at 14-17 mil per year would be what I'd be offering him. Julio Rodriguez just got 12/210 that could be 17/470. His injuries and age mean he gets a little less than Rodriguez, but Rodriguez is getting 18 mil per through his age 33 season with a club option after his age 29 season. Locking up Royce for slightly less through his age 33-35 season would be a good deal for the Twins, and take the injury concerns out of his head.

Actually, if you watch the play Correa starts behind the second base bag while Julien starts in a strong pull position. Correa takes a couple steps to his right before going to cover second base like he was supposed to with a runner on first. He reacts to Polanco missing the ball when he should. Correa was not supposed to be backing up Polanco, and wasn't in position to do so at the start of the play.

Sorry the Twins care more about winning playoff games than meaningless regular season games. So heartless of them. Could you imagine an NFL team sitting their stars the last week when they have their playoff spot locked in?! They'd never! Oh wait, they do that all the time.

If Bill expected Rocco to go all out trying to win a meaningless game that's on Bill. Welcome to the world of professional sports, folks. Adjust your expectations now because you're going to be disappointed in every franchise ever if your expectation is that they go all out to win at all times.

Not after he threw 6+ innings on Sunday.

I think the Jays have an advantage in the top 4 in the lineup, but the Twins have the advantage 5-9. Bottom half of the order going to have to do some damage. Pitching feels pretty even. Should be a good series. Go Twins!

I don't see a huge need for the 2nd lefty in this series. Varsho had a .674 OPS this year. Kiermaier was .741. Biggio .710. Belt is their only legit lefty (.859 OPS). Are we really going to pull one of our late inning leverage arms for Funderburk just to face Belt? Most likely use of Funderburk is if Belt comes up with 2 outs in the 4th, 5th, or 6th innings. I don't think that's wildly valuable. Stephenson is a really nice postseason piece for sure. His legs will likely come into play at some point. Buxton is so tough. Horrible watching his body betray him like this.

Him, Paddack, or Funderburk would've been my 12th guy to not make the roster.

Nobody used more than 10 last year even though there were short starts and extra inning games. And the Brewers and Rays are the teams run most like the Twins in that they'll play to platoon advantages with their bats more. Thus carrying the extra hitter to be able to make more moves throughout the game. Texas has a pretty set lineup and they won't be doing a lot of pinch hitting.

That could be. I'd probably have carried Luplow then. Either way, I would've carried 15 bats and 11 arms.

Jays carrying 3 lefties. Kikuchi, Mayza, and Cabrera. Rocco going to have to be on top of his game.

I'd have carried Larnach over a 12th arm that has no chance of appearing in the series. Jays carrying 3 lefties that I assume they'll deploy early if there's any signs of struggles from their starters and get into the Twins bench. I think having an extra bat to be able to switch the platoon back in favor of the Twins late would be more useful than a 12th arm.