chpettit19

I'm pretty surprised, actually, very surprised, to see this much pushback from posters on the idea that Gallo should be DFA'd tomorrow for Kirilloff. Doubts that it may happen? With how this FO holds onto vets for perceived depth, we should all have doubts that it will happen. But I'm very surprised to see so many people suggesting it actually makes sense to continue rostering Gallo, not only for September, but the postseason as well. If you're no better than 3rd on the depth chart at any position you're not providing real depth, you're just a body. And Gallo isn't better than 3rd on the depth chart anywhere. There's no situation in which he should be a pinch hitter in a game that means something, and they have far better baserunners for any pinch running needs. Gallo brings no uncoverable skill to this roster. It's time for him to go.

There's literally a 0% chance Joey Gallo receives a QO. The QO will be nearly double what he got paid this year. There's no 3 week hot streak possible to make teams forget about his last 3 months and double his salary. The QO isn't something they need to factor in in any way, shape, or form.

Barring injury, or a sudden cratering of performance, I think Lopez, Gray, and Ryan will be setup as their 3 starters for the WC round with the hope that Ryan actually ends up pitching game 1 of the divisional round. I think Ober and Maeda are going to battle it out the 2nd half of September for the chance to be the #4 starter in the postseason. The other likely headed to the pen as a 2 inning weapon if/when needed, or the 5th starter if they get into some longer series and guys can't keep going on short rest. Barring injury, or sudden cratering of performance, I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan have postseason spots locked up. Varland and Ober/Maeda likely also have jobs come October as well. The question then is if they carry 1 or 2 more pitchers. Who gets those spots likely comes down to if Stewart comes back, and how he looks if he does, and if they want a 2nd lefty (I hope they do), which is likely Funderburk's job to lose at this point. Wild card round will be very interesting to see how many arms they choose to keep. If you need more than 6 or 7 in that round you're probably in trouble, and if you need more than 9 you're probably toast. I'd think they'd load up on position players for that round to really let Rocco play his pinch hitting game. I'd guess they still carry 11 arms for that series, but they better not have to use anywhere near that many.

It's been time. Don't expect to see him go much below the 4 or 5 hole, but it's been time for a while to drop him down to 6th or further. He's not currently one of the 5 best hitters on this team.

Guess we got our answer to how long he could last in CF this year. This is getting real depressing for him. I can't imagine the frustration he must be going through. I'd guess retirement hasn't seriously crossed his mind, but it can't be a thought that's too far down the road for him if this doesn't improve. I think it's time to do any procedure they think can help, and give him from now until February off. This can't be who he is the rest of his career. It's not tenable for anyone involved.

They also need offense next year and the years after. They need more talent overall, not to move the talent from one spot to another. It's totally fine if you see a good offense without Julien. I don't. And we already know good pitching without the offense to back it doesn't work. I don't see a team that needs to move talent around, I see a team that needs to add talent. They can't keep trading offense for pitching. They don't have enough offense for that.

Yeah, we just don't see the prospects the same way. Nothing wrong with that, we just won't agree. I don't see their realistic ceilings anywhere near where you appear to. These are not top 100 type prospects we're talking about outside of Lee, and maybe Martin. It's just the nature of prospects. Most of them fail. Especially the average ones.

I understand that, and very much have the same concern. I don't think the solution to that problem is trading your best hitter, though. They cleared a spot for Miranda this year so it's not like they never play young guys. Had spots ready and waiting for Kirilloff and Lewis the second they were ready. Gallo and Julien were/are poorly handled situations. But there are other young guys who've they've handed the reigns to. Duran was on the opening day roster last year. I just see some of these ideas as overcompensating.

I want to see the young kids audition, too. I don't want to go into a season built on them, though. Cuz chances are Martin, Prato, Williams, and Severino aren't more than "eh" hitters just like the vets. So you've then traded away your best bat because you didn't want a most-of-the-time DH. I don't think the idea of trading Julien is crazy, and understand the desire for a big time young arm. I don't see the depth that some of you claim there is. Going into 2024 with that roster sounds like an absolute disaster to me. Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year? And if it doesn't where's your depth? 30 year old Stevenson? Noah Miller? 2nd year Keaschell? To me that plan is a drastic over adjustment to our Gallo and Julien frustrations this year. The truth about those prospects is that you're not likely finding more than 2 of them (likely Martin and Lee) who are even as good as Farmer or Solano. And if/when they fail you're down to even lesser prospects trying to fill in. The Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and completely botched their chances to test young players the last 2 years. But I don't think overcompensating by going almost completely young, unproven, and untested is the answer unless you're not really trying to compete in 2024 and are just testing guys out for 2025 and beyond. There's a middle ground and that's what I'm trying to advocate for.

Well it doesn't just have to be Julien. The real point is that with Buxton back in CF there aren't too many guys for not enough spots. You can rotate Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, and Kirilloff all through the DH and IF spots. I certainly understand the desire for another pitcher, but I don't think this offense is good, or deep, enough for me to think trading possibly their best bat is a move that upgrades the team overall. We've seen what a bunch of "eh" hitters gets this team even when they have an elite rotation. Gets them to barely .500. I'm sure others see the offense differently, though.

If Buxton goes back to CF isn't the move to just put Julien at DH?

I see their depth differently than you. Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, Correa, Lee is a pretty nice IF/DH rotation. I'm a gigantic Polanco fan, and think he's the key to the lineup this year, but he's not here for more than next year at the most. After that where is the "depth?" Willi Castro or Nick Gordon? Martin's bad infield glove? Miranda's horrible infield glove? Yunior Severino's terrible infield glove? If Lee is one of their best 9 hitters at the start of next season I don't want him in AAA, but him starting the year there doesn't mean they have some crazy depth that can easily replace their best bat. We've been talking about logjams and depth for years around here. Their refusal to move on from vets early this year is the first time it's ever been an actual problem. And they've been proven right with their Kepler stubbornness. Gallo is still crazy to me. The Twins have plenty of names (Schobel and Keaschall as others) that we can throw around and call depth, but if they're not actually good players, or nearly as good as the guy you're suggesting trading, it's not as simple as "more great starters are better than depth." As much as we don't like to think about it, there's a very real chance that Lee simply isn't a great, or even good, MLB hitter. We've seen what the lineup looks like when it's full the "depth," and the best rotation in baseball barely kept them at .500. "Depth" is only replaceable if you have equal parts to replace the ones you move. I don't think the Twins have equal parts to replace Julien's bat. And I don't think it's particularly close even. If you trade Julien and Lewis, Correa, or Kirilloff's health/performance problems don't remedy themselves there's no "depth" they have that's making up for it. You're looking at replacing them with similarly poor gloves and significantly worse bats than Julien. Having a bunch of names is not the same as having replaceable depth. But I get that many people don't see their depth the same way I do.

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever. Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

I assume you're referring to the Angels. They have a .296 winning percentage in August while trying to win. Changing waiver wire rules isn't going to stop tanking in MLB. Tanking for a month is not a concern that should cause rule changes. Edit to add: and they aren't tanking in the "trying to get the #1 overall pick" sort of way, they were just trying to get under the luxury tax threshold. Not a problem many teams have.

Martin doesn't need to be up today, but I'd really like to see him added to the 40-man today. I'm fine waiting til tomorrow to add him to the 28-man, though. Very highly doubt that happens, though.

You go to the back of the line when you get a claim, but the order resets based on record every month. Solves the vast majority of this.

Every team is allowed to spend as much as they want. Choosing not to spend on a certain player is very different than by rule not having the chance to.

I'm pretty sure the MLB waiver order used to reset monthly. Or something close to that. Back when the league you were in mattered, too.

Pretty shocking to see the Guardians add to payroll today. Not great for the Twins. Have a fight on their hands again!

Always appreciate the thoughtful back and forth! Will be fun to see how it plays out today and in years to come. It's what keeps us coming back for more picinic baskets!

That is definitely the worst case scenario playing out. And I wouldn't be happy. But that's what sports are all about to me. The "what's going to happen" is why I tune in. I'd by no means argue anyone is crazy for taking the title in this hypothetical. Especially as a MN sports fan. It's what makes this such a fun thought exercise. It's reasonable to choose either side. No hope for 10 years would be too much for me.

I guess my point is that outside of 3 or 4 dudes, 3 of which came from the Angels, the other guys waived are basically Luplow type players. Carrasco has a 6.80 ERA in 20 starts. Cisnero has a 5.36 ERA in 54 appearances. Bader has a 77 OPS+ in 82 games. Renfroe has a 94 OPS+ in 124 games. Grichuk has a 94 OPS+ in 90 games. Those guys are pretty typical waiver cuts at this time of year anyways. I mean we've all been calling for a Gallo DFA for months and he has a better OPS+ (99) than any of those guys. Giolito has been terrible with the Angels, but he's a big name so he stands out. Moore and Lopez are legit playoff arms so they stand out. Clevinger is a bit of a wildcard with his buyout making him a really expensive 1 month rental. The free puppy bin is still full of mostly guys that it doesn't matter that they're there. Nobody is tripping over themselves for those first 5 names. The better names available almost all come from an outlier situation that isn't likely to repeat itself. 1 team being able to snag all 4 of those arms is a concern, and I'd bet that's the hole that gets filled after the season. But none of the rest of this is new. I think without the Angels we aren't even talking about this. And I don't see their situation coming up too often.

Mangels for sure. Not even a question.

There's always a risk of someone doing something crazy within the rules. I just think teams have been well aware that they can waive guys now and maybe save money, but definitely clear a spot for a young guy when they're out of the race. There's a reason we were almost all upset with the Twins carrying Simmons the entire season. There wasn't some drastic rule change that lead to these guys getting waived. The rule change is 1 team being able to claim them all. The question, to me, is how big is the risk that a bunch of teams do what the Angels do and cut numerous players that numerous teams would want on a playoff roster? I don't see a big risk. I think they're a special circumstance. But we'll see!

Eh, I think most teams have 6 40-man moves they could make without breaking a sweat if they thought they were significantly upgrading their playoff chances. I'm willing to bet Cincinnati and Miami have 6 guys on their 40-man that aren't vital parts of their futures. Those pitching staffs have a ton of holes so I can't imagine their non-26-man pitchers on the 40-man would cause them to lose sleep if they dropped them for Moore, Lopez, and Clevinger. There's a lot of "eh" on 40-man rosters. There's certainly a cost to claiming someone, but not an overly expensive one.