chpettit19

Yes, but if you build actual depth, and don't need to trade Arraez, Steer, and CES for pitching you have no need for Castro's role. Lee seems to have found his footing in AA and should be in AAA soon, and the majors next year. So add a 6th guy to the 5 I mentioned. I've said Castro is useful. I like him. He's the perfect 13th guy for the way they want to run this team. But you're suggesting he's a "long-term" answer to things. Even if you just mean 2 years I don't agree that he's that valuable as Polanco and Lewis are both expected back soonish. They're already struggling to figure out what to do with Polanco and Julien. What will they do when they add Lewis to that mix? Castro is useful, but not someone you carve out a spot for. As others have mentioned, he's valuable in large part because he has an option left. If Miranda is his 2022 self after he gets his shoulder right they have even more IF traffic. If they weren't so obsessed with subbing constantly Farmer would be enough to cover their IF needs even with Lewis and Polanco both out. Castro's value largely comes from the way the Twins want to do things, not the way they have to do things. It's really straight forward to not need a guy who plays all over. Still nice, but absolutely not needed.

They did bounce him around a little in 2021 (18 games in left, 21 at 1B, 23 at 3B), but he played exclusively 2B in 2022, and this year. In his 2+ minor league seasons he has 167 games, and 1438.1 innings at 2B. He didn't really play all over in the minors. They did a couple little test runs with him at other spots in 2021, but he hasn't played anything but 2B (or DH) since 9/10/21.

It's not that hard to get 3 everyday outfielders. Or 4 everyday infielders. You don't need to be Atlanta to have an entire unit that doesn't need to be switched around and pinch hit for constantly. Lewis, Correa, Polanco (or Julien), Kirilloff. Look at that I just took away any need to be bouncing Castro to the infield in any given game because you shouldn't be taking any of those 4 (or 5) guys out of any game, and they should be playing everyday. You have both Farmer and Solano who cover the IF without needing Castro at all. I like Castro. I'm not suggesting he isn't useful. I'm just saying that if you build, and/or manage, your team differently it isn't necessary to bounce a guy all over the field on a regular basis. Their obsession with substitutions is what forces them to do this. All you need is either an infield or outfield that you just set and forget. That's 3 or 4 players. Shouldn't be hard to do.

Julien is a good base runner, but he doesn't have above average speed. Those stolen base numbers didn't come from him being super fast, they came from him being a good base runner. He's in the 51st percentile for sprint speed this year. Almost exactly average.

One thing I think makes a difference on the Castro take is this idea that "you have to have a guy on your roster who can play many positions." I read that, based on many of your comments here, to mean that you need someone who can play infield and outfield. I disagree with that in a vacuum. The Twins obsession with pinch hitting, platooning, mixing and matching every last little thing is what requires them to have someone who can do that. But if you build your team differently you don't need it. If you have more regulars who you're willing to let hit against basically anybody, and lock down positions on a full time basis you don't need a guy who can go from CF to 3B to 2B to LF in 1 game. If you have 3 everyday outfielders I could argue you're better off with a Keirsey as a 4th OFer who's a superior OF defender and can also steal basis. 4 IF spots locked up? Kyle Farmer is all you need to backup that entire quartet. But when you have very few guys who are good enough to, or you're willing to let, lock down a position full time so you play endless matchup games then you "have to have" that guy.

Sure, in year to year increments assuming his arb numbers don't get too high, and all that. I like Castro. But I'm not locking him up for more than 1 year at a time. Good call on the 2nd arb year, too. Not sure why I was thinking he only had 1 left.

I don't know if he's forced himself into their long-term plans, but I think he's earned the chance to keep his roster spot for the rest of this year, and, assuming he continues to play at this level, the first shot at a utility role for next year. I'm not giving him any sort of multi-year deal, but I'd take him on his last arb year for next year, and go from there. He's at the front of the line for their utility players, and I think he's a wonderful 13th position player. He stays that way until someone knocks him off his perch.

Walker Jenkins Tier 1Brooks Lee Tier 1Emmanuel Rodriguez Tier 2- a little different from other tier 2 guys in that he's a higher variance kid, but I think the contact skills hold him back from ever reaching his ceiling.Marco Raya Tier 2Matt Canterino Tier 2- think he's a lights out reliever next yearConnor Prielipp Tier 2- with an injury caveatAustin Martin Tier 2.5- still believe in the bat to ball skillsMatt Wallner Tier 3Tanner Schobel Tier 3Luke Keaschall Tier 3Simeon Woods Richardson Tier 3David Festa Tier 3Yasser Mercedes Tier 3Jordan Balazovic Tier 3Brent Headrick Tier 3Yunior Severino Tier 3Noah Miller Tier 3Blayne Enlow Tier 3Charlee Soto Tier 3- tough to really rank as a HS arm with super high ceiling, super low floor so took the easy way out and put him in tier 3Brandon Winokur Tier 3- tough to really rank as he's super high ceiling, super low floor so took the easy way out and put him in tier 3 I'm a "tiers" guy. I put Jenkins first because I think he has more upside than Lee, but I wouldn't put up any sort of real fight if you put Lee first. But I think they're in the same tier while the rest of the guys are at least a full step below them. So I didn't put a whole lot of effort into the exact order within the tiers, but care more about the level of prospect I think they all are. Tier 1- Multi-time All Star upside with strong enough chance of getting there that they'd be untouchable for me in trade. Tier 2- MLB regular for a long time with maybe an All Star game or 2 mixed in on career years. Tier 2.5- Martin stands alone in a weird category for me so he gets his own tier. Tier 3- Guys I feel will make the majors and likely have a couple nice seasons, but aren't really core regulars on playoff teams. Middle reliever types. Utility guy types. Left handed masher with negative defensive value (that's Wallner in case you didn't know) types. Back end of rotation types. Or the 2 HS kids they just took early who just have such huge variance, and aren't on the Jenkins type level, so I copped out and threw them at the bottom. Every prospect's floor is technically "never makes the majors." And they all have all star upsides if they hit their 100th percentile outcome. My ratings of them are based on their 50-75th percentile outcomes. Example: ERod could become the best of them all if he figures out his K problem and hits his 100th percentile while the rest only reach their 75th percentile. Or he couldn't make it beyond AA if he only reaches his 25th percentile. I think his most likely outcome (50th percentile) is he makes the majors and has some really impressive hot streaks, but most likely is too streaky to really be a stud. I'm an optimist so I like to also take into account their most likely positive outcomes (up to the 75th percentile) as well so ERod gets tier 2 because he's got enough thump in that bat, and athleticism, that he could find his way into an All Star game or 2 if he sustains a hot streak long enough in the first half of a season. But I expect his valleys to be low enough, even at his 75th percentile, to truly keep him from that tier 1 star level.

Do I agree? Yes. 100%. Do the Twins agree? I'm not sure, but am interested to find out.

Yeah, still don't see the Twins as a good fit for trades with the Cards. Simply don't have the arms they'd want, and we'd be able to survive giving up for the future years. As much as I'd love a few of their position players I just don't see us having the ammunition to get that level of players, or see them actually looking to trade them.

Yeah, not on my roster. I value defense up the middle, especially when the strength of you team is run prevention, and MAT is better than Bellinger. I don't mind MAT being an everyday CF on this team nearly as much as I mind Gallo and Kepler being everyday cOF. But to each their own.

Not on my roster. And bringing him in with Polanco and Lewis both eventually being back would more likely lead to Kepler or Gallo being pushed off the 26 man than MAT.

I too am between the 2 extremes. I don't think they get much in return for the guys they could "sell," and don't think it's worth giving up what it'd cost to truly "buy." Their playoff hopes rest on Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Polanco, and Kirilloff being healthy and productive, and the pitching maintaining some semblance of their current production. That's too big of an ask for me to think they have a great chance, but not too outlandish to think they can't steal a series or 2. This team is really frustrating that way. At least they play a bunch of terrible teams in the 2nd half so there should be some fun games mixed in.

The Twins were .500 overall against the 3 current wild card teams. They were .500 against 2 of the other 3 teams with the best chances at the wild card, and are about to head to Seattle to play the other. So against Baltimore, Toronto, Houston, Boston, NYY, and Seattle they're currently 16-16 with 7 to play against Seattle. That is a much better (while still insufficient) sample size than 3 games against Oakland I'd think. That looks like a chip and a chair to me. Going 0-7, 1-6, 2-5 against Seattle over the next week+? That'd definitely change the view. But going 7-0, 6-1, 5-2 would swing it the other way, too. I agree I'd like to see them not need Duran in all 3 games against Oakland, but Oakland wins games, too. Sweeping people, no matter how it looks, in MLB is hard. I'm not putting any money on these guys winning the world series, but I think all the nitpicking of records vs this team or that team is misleading in both directions. They've been solid against the teams they're most likely to play in the WC round. I'd love to see a single series win even if it leads into an ALDS sweep. At least remind us what it feels like to win a couple games in October.

If you go way back to that series right before the KC one they played Baltimore in Baltimore and won 2 of 3. Pushing their record against Baltimore, KC, and Oakland since the last day of June to 8-4 since the "vaunted team meeting." I'm not a big believer at all in this offense, but 8-4 isn't far off from what you'd expect any team to do in that stretch. I think they end up with 84-88 wins (basically what I expected coming into the year) still, and get into the playoffs. A chip and a chair is better than the team hitting the links in early October. I wouldn't bet on them to win the World Series, and maybe not even to win 1 series, but I'd bet on them breaking "the streak," and you have to start somewhere. Get into the playoffs and see what happens.

I don't know if this is accurate or not, but I really hope that's the situation behind closed doors. I don't want this FO to get any sort of shot at a rebuild. They had the chance to build. If they couldn't do it they don't get to try again. Some trades on the margins? Fine, go get another Fulmer type pen arm, but trades that include any real prospects, coming or going, shouldn't be on the table. Unless it's just an absolute joke of an offer and someone wants to send us 3 top 100 guys for Gray, or Goldy for Larnach. But I find that to be unlikely.

FYI, Rodriguez's deal is a player opt out after this year so the Twins willingness to pay likely doesn't matter because he's going to opt out unless he gets hurt before the end of the year.

I don't know if that's enough either, but I wouldn't give up anymore than those types of guys. Guys who need 40-man spots during the offseason, but the team hasn't given itself a shot to know if they should keep or not. Kiersey feels like a great Rule 5 pickup as a possible bench outfield glove/stolen base threat for some team. Like Taylor was supposed to be for this team. I don't trust Bellinger. He was Gallo bad for 3 years, and isn't MVP good now. He's not saving this team. But if I can replace Kepler or Gallo with him for a guy we won't 40-man after the season anyways? Why not? Give it a shot. See what happens.

Gray is 33, fyi.

Indeed he is.

They should have a ton of money to spend this offseason. Pooling Maeda and Sonny's contracts together should be able to get them a Sonny level pitcher on the market. SWR, Festa, and Varland is a pretty nice start to your depth beyond Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and FA X. I'd be absolutely shocked if Sonny or Maeda could bring back an arm that wouldn't be a question mark in the '24 rotation so I'm not sure what the argument is here. You can't fill that hole with the Sonny Gray trade so I don't see what it really has to do with whether or not you trade Sonny Gray. And a Comp A pick is basically the exact value it took to get 2 years of Sonny so it's pretty equal to be able to trade for a Sonny replacement with the value they get from the pick they get for Gray.

Betts was also an offseason trade.

The Twins went 2-4 against Baltimore this year. Including winning the first series 2-1. Which, in the wild card round, means winning the series and advancing. Went 3-3 against Toronto. 4-2 against Houston. Would I put a whole bunch of money on the Twins? No. But the Twins were .500 against those 3 squads so I'm not sure why the Twins would be shivering at those names either.

Every team that played in a series that went 4 games, or more, used 4 starters in that series last year except for the Yankees in the ALDS. The Yankees did add a 4th starter in the ALCS. Teams have 4 playoff starters. The Nats actually used 5 starters that year. Joe Ross and Annibal Sanchez both started games in the World Series. If the Twins strength is their rotation depth it doesn't make a lot of sense to not worry about the 4th spot. That'd be their best chance to win games since their top 3 aren't really blowing anyone else's top 3 out of the water. Their top 1 won't match up with anyone else's #1.

I wouldn't be actively looking to move Sonny Gray. I think he absolutely gets at least one 3/60 contract offer this offseason, and that's a top 40 pick for the Twins next year. That is a very valuable asset that other teams are likely not willing to tack on top of the value they have to pay for the last 2 months of Gray. But if a team is willing to part with enough to get both 2 months+playoffs of Gray, and a comp A pick worth of value I'd listen. But I don't see Gray as significantly better than the other 3 guys that'd make up the Twins playoff rotation as of today so I'd be listening in case somebody gets desperate. I also think that winning a single playoff game this year would be huge. As much as the players can say "we weren't here for this whole streak so it doesn't really matter" I think it does matter. I think hearing about it every season matters. And it definitely matters to most of the fan base. I think simply taking that monkey off the organizations back has great value. The question is if you need Sonny Gray to accomplish just that very meager goal. I'd argue no. But I'd also argue that anything can happen in the playoffs. Would their odds of advancing very far be great? Not likely unless 6 or 7 guys really turn things around at the plate against teams a whole lot better than Oakland. But weird things happen in the postseason all the time, and if you can keep this pitching going you'd have a chance in any series. And this team is built to win now. Not built very well offensively, but the goal was to win now. And if this team can't do it then a new FO is the ones who get to try to win for later, not these guys. I want nothing to do with them trying to be massive sellers. Don't want them trading away top prospects for just this year, either, but they don't get to be the rebuilders. Buy on the margins with a relief arm or 2. See what right handed bats are available for middling prospects. And cross your fingers that Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Lewis, and Kirilloff are all healthy and hitting how you expected come October.