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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Welcome to Twins Daily! Great first post. The Guardians are definitely a team we shouldn't count out as they always seem to find a hot stretch eventually. The young guys are starting to lay claim to this being their team. Fun to see. The next generation is emerging!
  2. chpettit19
    We had a couple similar threads last month for Brent Rooker. Those didn't age well. He's certainly mashing the ball right now, but I agree with @TwinsDr2021, let's see him do actual damage in the majors before we start freaking out. He also has 39 Ks in 34 AAA games. There's some holes for pitchers to find there.
  3. chpettit19
    I'd actually rank Jeffers 4th, and Kirilloff 5th if I were really ranking their chances of making it overall, and thus doing a little forecasting for the next month. If Jeffers starts taking more and more playing time from Vazquez, and keeps hitting, he'll have a real argument for being one of the top 3 catchers in the AL. If Kirilloff just keeps doing what he's doing he'll have a real argument as one of the better hitters in the AL, but missing so much time will really hurt him. My Rankings: Duran Ryan Gray Jeffers Kirilloff
  4. chpettit19
    We don't disagree there. I didn't say average was acceptable, or we should be ok with it, or anything like that. Just that they're not some horrid FO by any means. I'm quite neutral on the FO, manager, etc. as I compare them to the rest of the league and see that there's much worse we can do, but also much better. My general approach to this stuff is to take risks for greatness, but I understand that in taking those risks you can also end up with way worse than we have. Some of us were having a similar chat in one of the draft prospects threads the other day. I say take the highest ceiling player at #5 instead of the "safe" guy with a higher floor. You need stars to win. Take the potential hall of famer who may never make the majors over the guy who's much more likely to reach the majors, but maxes out as a 1 time all star in his career year. I wouldn't be upset if they cleared house after this season if we don't see a couple stars developing in Kirilloff and Lewis that produces some postseason results. But I also wouldn't be upset if they don't clear house because they're on the cusp of being really good, and there's a long ways down from our current standing in Major League Baseball. It's really all about the risks you're willing to take to improve. I just like to show fans who call for heads to roll that there's definitely room to go down from where we are. Certainly still understand the desire for more, though.
  5. chpettit19
    That's simply not how things work, though. That's the point. This is how every team operates. Young guys get bounced back and forth all the time. Mike Trout was sent back to AAA even. This is a frequent occurrence. It's not the Twins doing something crazy. If the nationally touted prospects are getting sent back to AAA don't you think it's pretty reasonable that the guys in the Twins system who aren't actually that big of prospects are having the same thing happen? What's the hit rate for other organizations? What's our frame of reference for the Twins being successful in developing players? How many players for other teams "reach their ultimate potential?" I think part of the problem is our expectations. Julien is a nice enough prospect, but he's not supposed to be some star or anything. The Twins have drafted and developed more guys who make the majors than the average team under this regime. They've failed to produce stars. I'm also hoping Kirilloff and Lewis are those guys. The early reviews are quite positive. Ryan Jeffers is doing awfully well right now. Only 66% of 1st round picks ever even make the majors. I don't think the Twins are great by any means, but they're not terrible. They're just average. Which shows in their record most the time. They're able to produce MLB talent, just not above average MLB talent. Let's hope Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, and the #5 pick can produce a couple stars.
  6. chpettit19
    I mean it wouldn't be all 3 of them pitching again tonight. It'd most likely just be 1 of them, right? During a 162 game season there's almost always 1 reliever who isn't available unless you're coming off an off day. If they can't survive with 1 of those guys being unavailable Friday and Saturday they're in serious trouble.
  7. chpettit19
    I'd guess the thought was 100% getting Lopez into a low leverage situation, against a good team, and letting him get his head right, and his groove back. Didn't work. I don't think any of the relievers who threw last night are off the table tonight. Lopez threw 16 pitches. Stewart 13, De Leon 16. They should all absolutely be able to throw again tonight if they're the best option. The entire bullpen should be available tonight.
  8. chpettit19
    I haven't seen any posts "giving up on Julien already." Not clear on the Gallo comp in the 1B or DH conversation since Gallo is a cOFer who just filled in at 1B until Kirilloff was back, and when Gallo's hammy was tight. "Ability to play in the field" is part of the discussion because he may have the ability to stand out there, but he doesn't have the ability to field well. Being in the field, but fielding poorly, isn't an asset. Come on. This "love a change of scenery" argument is so extreme. Are the Twins the only team who use options to move guys to AAA? Did St Louis not send their #1 prospect, and according to some people the #1 prospect in all of baseball, down to AAA after he started the year with them? Would Jordan Walker "love a change of scenery" because of that? The team giving Steer a chance are sitting on another top 5 global prospect who's absolutely lighting the minors on fire right now, should Elly De La Cruz be demanding a trade? Go look at Brent Rooker's numbers for May. Actually, I'll just give them to you. 2 homeruns, .198/.290/.327/.616 quad-slash. He could probably use a trip to AAA. Welcome to the world of professional baseball. It's really hard to make a major league roster, and even harder to stay on one.
  9. chpettit19
    That's fair. I'm just saying you weren't getting any kind of massive difference maker for Steer and CES. Mahle was very clearly the wrong choice even if I thought it was a solid, if unspectacular, trade at the time.
  10. chpettit19
    Yeah, the Reds are really the envy of the league. Everyone tripping over themselves to get to Cincinnati to play with that juggernaut of a franchise.
  11. chpettit19
    You're not getting a better pitcher with more control for Steer and CES.
  12. chpettit19
    What do you base this on? What have you seen in their games to make you think there's better defense in there? Or is this just a shot at the Twins organization based on nothing real? It's turned out to be a bad trade, yes. It doesn't "really hurt" yet, but it could in the future. There's every bit the chance that Steer is pushed out of that IF as well by the elite prospects they have coming up. We'll see. Only time will tell who turns out to be the best between Steer, CES, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff. I'll take my chances with Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff.
  13. chpettit19
    What do the x-rays have to do with his current performance? Is the idea that his ankle is so shot right now that he's struggling to hit?
  14. chpettit19
    I never said Miranda and/or Julien didn't have defensive limitations, just said they're part of a group of players who can cover the same positions that Steer and CES do. I expect to see Miranda on the bench most of the time in that situation. I'm really confused by your point. The Twins had 8 guys (the 6 I named, plus Steer and CES) who could all play a role in covering the 3 positions in question. The Twins were willing to trade 2 of the 8. Thus the comparison I care about moving forward is how those 2 work out compared to how the 6 they didn't trade work out. Don't see the controversy there.
  15. chpettit19
    I agree part of why he's at 1B now may certainly just be roster needs, but they have a number of much better fielders coming up behind him pretty quick, and I'd guess the odds are that he is destined for far more 1B than anywhere else in the IF when the rest of this prospect wave hits. We'll see how it all turns out. Long ways to go in their careers. That trade definitely isn't going to be a win, though.
  16. chpettit19
    This article went over well...
  17. chpettit19
    No.
  18. chpettit19
    The determining factor, to me, on them haunting the Twins is what Miranda, Kirilloff, Buxton, Lewis, Julien, and Lee do over the next 6+ years. Steer is down to 1B/3B/DH. CES is down to 1B/DH. The Twins took a calculated risk that some combination of the 6 guys I named earlier would be a better overall combination at 1B/3B/DH for the Twins. Or at least that a combination of them at those positions, plus Mahle in the rotation for a year and a half, would be as good as Steer, CES, and Hajjar for 6+ years. CES has to be Nelson Cruz to be a truly haunting player. I would bet against that happening, but you never really know. That's the game you play when making trades. If Buxton is a fulltime, or most-time, DH over the next 6 years CES didn't really have a place to play here. To me, the bigger thing haunting the Twins in that scenario is Buxton being a DH. Steer has already been pushed down to having most of his time at 1B now. The bar to clear offensively for being a "haunting" player there is awfully high. I would bet against that happening as well, but he's looked good for the last month. Both of their defensive limitations lessen the likelihood that they're truly haunting losses. But Steer's current batting line sure would look nice in the Twins lineup right now. I wouldn't replace Lewis or Kirilloff with him, though.
  19. chpettit19
    I've had the same itch in the back of my mind about them being motivated by job security over best prospect when it comes to the high school kids. Or they fear a repeat of the Cavaco disaster, but that was them passing on the better HS prospect (Carroll) to grab the "helium prospect." If they pass on Clark for someone outside the top 5 and he becomes Carroll 2.0 fans are going to riot (well the really invested fans around here will write really angry posts). I'm with Jaime here. You got to jump up 8 spots (if I'm remembering correctly) and you're thinking of taking advantage of that by picking a high floor, low ceiling prospect (if the rumors are to be believed)? If that's true Pohlad better fire them in the next month. You have a chance to pick someone with an elite ceiling, don't get cute. My thought on this pick is to make it a "Brooks Lee line" decision. How many prospects in this draft would immediately become the team's #1 prospect? Is it 5? 8? 12? It sure sounds like there's 5 for sure. If it's only 5 you have to take one of the 5. If the top 5 are clearly better than him, but the second tier there'd be debate on? You have to take one of the top 5. My top 5 are the same as yours, and have the same disclaimer of not really knowing anything about them beyond what I read. But I know drafting "safe" in the top 5 is nonsense. Because there's no such thing anyways. Take an elite prospect when you're handed them on a silver platter.
  20. chpettit19
    I honestly don't have a super strong opinion one way or the other. I think they're in the middle of the FO rankings (same with Rocco as a manager). They're not spectacular, but they're not terrible. I tend to lean towards taking chances on finding the spectacular so I'd put myself mostly in the same place as you are in them needing to show something in the playoffs, but I also understand that we could be the Rockies and be run significantly worse than Falvine has done. I think they've drafted quite well overall. I think they've modernized the organization, which is huge. I think they have a decent plan for building a winner in MN with the constraints placed on them. I think they've failed at actually doing it. I think it's all sort of the same problem, though. They're average, they found an average manager, and they're really good at finding, or developing, average talent. I think the average fan wants to see more than average, though. And in order to do that you have to risk going from average to below average. It's very similar to the Kirk Cousins situation with the Vikings. Maybe not quite good enough, but you know there's far worse so how much do you want to risk to try to improve upon what you have? Winning a bad division and losing in the first round of the playoffs isn't quite good enough. But it's way better than 99, 96, 96, 92, and 103 losses in 5 of 6 seasons we just went through not that long ago. Really long answer to say I wouldn't push back on them being fired if they don't find some playoff success this year. But I'll be nervous about whoever they bring in to replace them.
  21. chpettit19
    This kind of sums up this FO regime. Can produce ML talent, but can't produce stars. So they have decent to solid teams who can hang around .500, but are never really contenders. They need to start producing stars or they're doomed to mediocrity. Their jump to #5 this year is a huge opportunity. Don't get cute. Have to get your star this year.
  22. chpettit19
    I know crazy things happen at the top of the draft, and draft dollar games are played, but if they go outside the general public's declared elite top 5 they better be right. These prognosticators are wrong all the time, and we shouldn't take their word as gold, but when every publicly available ranking system has the same 5 guys in some order, and they're all talked about as being likely 1-1 picks in almost any other year, you better have a really good reason to go outside them. And it being a HS hitter doesn't seem like a good reason to me when they took Lewis 1-1, and Cavaco earlier than predicted in the first. You got lucky in the first ever draft lottery and jumped into the top 5 in a 5 superstar draft. If you take someone else, but the guy(s) in the top 5 you passed on turns into a hall of famer(s) it doesn't matter if you picked an all star or a complete bust. You can't pass on the top 5 guy and have whoever you pick be worse than them, unless you also completely nail your bonus pool money manipulation. If you come away with multiple all stars you're good. But passing on the elite prospect, and having them turn out to be better than who you picked will not go over well with fans. Especially if it's one of the college guys and they're in the majors quickly. As far as Skenes goes, though, I'd be awfully surprised if he got beyond Texas at 4. It feels like they'd love to have him in their bullpen for the playoff push this year before putting him in camp with deGrom next year and letting him learn.
  23. chpettit19
    Option 1: Buxton's knees aren't toast, and he can get back to CF in some amount this year, and more next year. I'm starting to think this isn't a real option anymore. It feels like Buxton's knees are shot, and he simply will never be able to hold up to the wear and tear of playing CF anymore. Absolutely a disastrous outcome for everyone involved, including the team who want him in CF more than any of us and would put him there if they thought he could do it. Option 2: MAT. No thank you. Option 3: Free Agents/Trades. Not a lot of great options in the open market, but maybe there's a trade that can be found? I can't imagine it'd be cheap to trade for a really good CFer, though. It's what made Buxton so valuable as a plus defender and hitter there. Option 4: Royce. I've been on this bandwagon since last year, and it's still my preferred move. They have much more depth at 3B (and 2B) than they do in CF. Royce was tremendous in CF in the AFL, and his very brief Twins stint. Even the play he got hurt on showed how good he can be out there. I think this solves a lot of their immediate needs, and I'd have him start taking flyballs out there and have him ready to transition in the 2nd half of this year. Option 5: Other prospects. I'm not a Celestino believer. So he's nowhere near the top of my list of options. I think ERod is a corner guy, and needs to do a lot before I count on him to even make the majors at this point. Any of the top 4 hitters in the draft feel like they may be an option, but the HS kids would be years away, and Langford doesn't look like he tracks the ball well enough to play CF. Austin Martin may be the best non-Lewis youngster option. I haven't seen any update on him lately, but hopefully they get this elbow thing figured out, and he can come back and look like he did in the AFL. I don't know if they'd use him out there everyday, but he could be the main CFer as part of his likely utility role.
  24. chpettit19
    I think he's average. But, in general, I just don't think managers matter very much. I think they can swing a team's record +/-4 games in a season. I don't think managers are the reason teams win or lose close games, I don't think they're the reason a team's bullpen or offense or whatever are bad. I think they have very minimal effect overall. But, as for Rocco specifically, I think he's just another manager.
  25. chpettit19
    The Twins were 14th in baseball in runs scored in 2021. Almost the exact definition of average is all the team needs to go from being bad in close games to Rocco not even mattering? Feels like thats wrong. Your argument is basically that when the team loses close games it's Rocco's fault, but when they win them it's because the players are good. Sorry, I just don't buy it.
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