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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    From the moment I'm typing this...34.5 and 1 out.
  2. chpettit19
    They didn't technically extend him. He had options on his contract that they picked up. His original contract ran through last year, but they picked up his options through 2025. I'm not sure exactly how those were structured so I don't know if it was an option to just pick up year by year, or they had to pick them all up at once. I think a discussion about not picking up his options is certainly valid.
  3. chpettit19
    Oh, I don't think it's outrageous to be talking about his job security now, or after 2022. But the post I responded to suggested firing him after 2021, and I think that'd have been awfully quick. Molitor got fired because there was a new FO brought in. They're not truly comparable situations. It's pretty standard that a new FO who's changing a whole lot about the organization would want to bring in their own guy. I actually think it was unfair to all involved that the Pohlads made them keep Molitor for the extra year when everyone knew he'd be canned at the first chance. I'm quite torn on the FO. I think they've done a great job modernizing the organization, but I think they've really struggled to identify, and develop, top end talent. I also think they rely too heavily on data in some instances. Pagan being the obvious one with their refusal to accept his performance stats over his "underlying data." The lineup being another one. I hate the extreme platoon decisions. Platooning is great for the bottom of your lineup, but if you're going to be a great team you need a top of the lineup that you just plug and play everyday. I think some of it is bad luck in injuries, but they also make a lot of decisions I don't understand. I think they're probably an average FO, and Rocco is an average manager, but I don't know that I really think they can get the team over the top and truly become contenders.
  4. chpettit19
    I'm pretty sure Lewis has been on the 60 day IL for 56 days. So he should only need to be on for 4 more days. Which should mean he should be playing for the Twins the day they open the Houston series on 5/29, not June 1.
  5. chpettit19
    Welcome to Twins Daily! While I 100% agree with the idea that the guys in the building have WAY more info than those on the outside, there's some incredibly smart, and highly knowledgeable folks posting on these boards. Including an "insider" or 2 from time to time. And everyone has access to his performance stats. You don't need to be a front office staff member to see how he performs. I don't need to see Pagan throw a bullpen to see that he's been one of, if not the worst reliever in baseball for years. I also don't need to see him throw a pen to know he's got good stuff, and understand why the Twins wanted to take a chance on "fixing" him. At some point you have to just admit he's not who you wanted him to be, though.
  6. chpettit19
    Same reason lots of guys bounce around and get numerous chances. The "underlying data," or scouting, suggests there's more in them, and every team thinks they have the key to unlocking someone. Just a matter of what the rest of their roster looks like on whether or not it's worth a shot to get them in your building and see them up close.
  7. chpettit19
    Sure, but they aren't keeping guys there til they're 30. Do you have some examples of guys who were performing well enough in AAA to deserve a promotion, there was an opening on the big league roster (there've been a ton the last couple years, that's for sure), the team didn't call them up, and then the player started getting injured for the first time in their career (whether we're talking TJS or any other injury)? I can't really think of any, but there certainly could be some.
  8. chpettit19
    The Yankees kept Hicks for 2+ years when he was bad. Yes, they cut him now, and owe him a bunch, but he's been terrible, and hurt, for 2+ years now. I don't think Pagan is a money thing, I think it's an overreliance on the wrong data while not being willing to admit that the results have spoken much louder than the predictive stats. It's the one spot where I wouldn't argue with anyone that the FO thinks they're smarter than the results, and just won't admit they're wrong about someone. Dave St Peter had some really questionable comments after last season. Falvey and Levine haven't said anything of the sort (that I'd seen/heard at least).
  9. chpettit19
    You wanted them to fire Rocco after 2021 because they had 1 down year? He'd had 2 seasons of 60+% winning percentage the 2 seasons before that. Firing him after 2021 would've been incredibly hasty. No idea why the tenured Pagan, that we definitely agree on. And the baseball ops (Falvey and Levine) didn't blame the fans. Don't lump them in with St Peter's nonsense comments.
  10. chpettit19
    They pitch fewer innings in AAA than they'd be expected to in the majors. My confusion comes in on what the difference is in them pitching in AAA or MLB. The level they're at doesn't matter when it comes to being injury prone or not.
  11. chpettit19
    It's a tough line to know where to draw on "giving up" on a guy. There are a lot of variables that go into it. Not the least of which is who'd replace that player. You can send Miranda down if you have Farmer to replace him. You have to watch Taylor struggle when your best replacement is Castro. I have no defense for Pagan. I haven't understood what they're doing with him for a year. They don't have a ton of great options to replace him, but relief pitchers are easily disposed of assets, especially when your desired role for a specific guy is low leverage only. Another factor that plays in, and fans have very little knowledge of, is "tweaks" or "adjustments" the FO, and coaching staff, believe will help a player. The work being done behind the scenes plays into the decisions being made on how long to keep someone. Does Duffey or Smith have enough left in their arm to make a tweak and get back to top form? Can you adjust something with Pagan to get his "stuff" to perform the way it "should?" Can you change Castro's swing slightly and he's back to his SSS 2020 self? We'll never be privy to the work happening behind the scenes so can't ever have the full picture view. But there's no helping Pagan. Can we please just cut him?
  12. chpettit19
    What is the supposed connection between being in AAA too long and becoming injury prone?
  13. chpettit19
    I don't like 3 true outcome baseball like these guys bring either. Not many people do. Just saying, by industry accepted measures, these guys are/were productive hitters. 1 per team is my limit. Especially if they're a good base runner, and defender, like Gallo. Once you start stacking multiple of them in the lineup I get less accepting of them. I totally get not enjoying this style of hitter, though.
  14. chpettit19
    That 1976 season was good for a 126 wRC+, or 129 OPS+. That's kind of Nick's point. He was 26, or 29, percent better than the average hitter that year. Not an MVP candidate, but better than any season Jorge Polanco has ever had. In 78 and 79 he was indeed better with 131 and 145 wRC+, and 132/146 OPS+. Those are all star worthy years. For his career he had a 113 wRC+, and 115 OPS+. Adam Dunn had a 125 wRC+, and 121 OPS+, his first all star season. 115 wRC+, and 114 OPS+, his 2nd. First season was worthy, second wasn't. But he also had seasons of 142/147 wRC+/OPS+ (2004), 138/141 (2005), 135/136 (2007), 130/131 (2008), 142/144 (2009), 136/138 (2010). Career wRC+ of 123, OPS+ of 124. Plenty of people don't like their style of hitting, but in comparative, overall hitting production stats both of those guys had some really nice years, and were solidly above average bats for their careers.
  15. chpettit19
    Boras also said he doesn't tell teams where to play players. And has a pretty strong interest in Correa staying at SS for a while, too. The quotes I saw didn't include him saying putting Lewis in the OF would be a mistake, just more or less that Lewis is more comfortable in the IF since that's where he's played the most. Lewis has been pretty open about his desire to stay on the dirt, but he also knows that it's better to be in the bigs playing CF than in AAA playing IF. I would be shocked if the Twins haven't had talks with him and pointed out what everyone already knows: they have a gaping hole in CF, and a whole bunch of IF prospects knocking on the door. Will be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple years.
  16. chpettit19
    If you take out those 5 games, while leaving in their top scoring games (so the opposite of what the other poster did) their average runs per game goes from 4.66 (219 runs in 47 games) to 5.17 (217 runs in 42 games). That puts them over 5 runs a game, and, as already discussed on this thread, scoring over 5 runs a game means you win a whole lot of games. A couple of us were showing that simply taking out their 5 top scoring games is obviously going to swing things dramatically, just like simple taking out their 5 lowest scoring games.
  17. chpettit19
    I thought there was less of a chance of my letters getting lost in the shuffle!
  18. chpettit19
    I've been writing Falvey 1 letter a day for years explaining how smart I am, and that if he'd just do what I say 100% of the time they'd never lose a game. I haven't gotten a reply yet...
  19. chpettit19
    If Lewis can't replace an 82 OPS+, or 83 wRC+, bat he's not the player we think he is, and we really shouldn't be worrying about where he plays. He definitely shouldn't be replacing anyone at 3B if he's 20% worse than league average with the bat.
  20. chpettit19
    That's fine, but all the more reason to not put Headricks in the pen without a concern on keeping him stretched out. My point was you can't take your top 2 depth starters and transition them both to fulltime pen roles. Leaving a struggling SWR, and the Aaron Sanchez's of the world, as your only rotation depth before the end of May would be a disastrous move.
  21. chpettit19
    I think it's pretty extreme to suggest not worrying about keeping your next starting pitcher stretched out while also suggesting they move Maeda to the pen. Do you believe the current starting 5 will make it through the rest of the year injury free? I get the bullpen is in the midst of falling on it's face, but to fix that by blowing up all rotation depth seems like you're not really solving the problem of maximizing season wins. They've got 115 games left. Let's pace ourselves a little when it comes to rotation depth. They're going to need it.
  22. chpettit19
    Prioritizing the long view isn't automatically what a smart front office does. It's absolutely a part of things, and, as I've said many times on these boards, the FO doesn't have the luxury to live in just the now. But there's a balance between the long view, and the short view. A FO that puts too much weight on the long view gets themselves fired just as much as the FO that prioritizes the short view. TR and his crew got themselves fired, in part, because they put too much emphasis on the long view, and let the short view go to crap for too long. This FO seems willing to take calculated risks on the short view without doing too much damage to the long view (like trading Steer and CES when they're full of corner, bat first prospects in the high minors and needed a starter).
  23. chpettit19
    So with my quick math, there have been 1406 team games played. 603 of those have scored 3 runs or fewer. That's roughly 43% of team games where teams score 3 or fewer runs. The Twins (based on your next post) are at 21 of 47 games, or 44.6%. So Twins are worse than average, but not significantly so. But I don't want them to just be average so they definitely need to pick that up. I'd think the teams that have top notch pitching staffs see a boost in their winning% at 4 runs per game compared to normal. The Twins starting rotation is definitely giving them a chance to see a boost there. But the bullpen has not been helping lately. Overall, I'm surprised they're as close as they are to average in terms of scoring 3 runs or fewer, and the problems for this team are what many of us thought they'd be. They're short a big, middle of the order bat, and the bullpen has stretches where it's simply not good enough. I expect there to be some dip in the starting rotation performance, but nothing drastic. Their best internal option for added offense is Lewis, and he should be here soon (although, this article tempering expectations has me worried they're going to be dumb about things), but the bullpen is really going to need some guys to step up. I believe in Duran and Lopez. But the rest make me nervous right now. It's not easy to find external improvements in May. They need Stewart to be for real, Thielbar to come back in top form, and Jax to make a tweak or 2 and be a real asset again.
  24. chpettit19
    What happens to their numbers if you take out their 5 lowest scoring games? What does "scoring consistently" look like in MLB? Honest questions. The numbers sound terrible when looking at them scoring 3 or fewer runs, and "scoring consistently" sounds great, but what are other teams doing? When you look at the best offenses for a year what percentage of games do they score 3 or fewer runs? What percentage do they score between 4 and 6 (or however you define "scoring consistently")? What percentage do they score 7 or more? I have no idea, and have never looked it up. How far off the MLB norm is this offense for consistency?
  25. chpettit19
    I'll start by saying that I disagree with the notion that the FO is paying much attention at all to the "fan hivemind." I think that's a false narrative with next to no evidence at all. Would the fans have had Buxton DHing all year? Would they have Pagan on the roster? Would they have traded Arraez? I don't think the FO cares at all about the fans opinions. As they shouldn't. Well maybe a little, but they certainly don't care anymore than they should. That being said, put Royce Lewis in CF (or 3B if you really think Farmer on the bench is smarter than Taylor/Castro), and the leadoff spot, the second he's eligible (May 29th I believe). The last time he was both good, and healthy, was last season when he destroyed AAA, and more than held his own in the majors. He's currently destroying AAA now. If he does it for this next series in St Paul there's no reason he shouldn't be called up a week from today. A torn ACL is an acute injury, not a chronic one. He wasn't playing injured last year (like Buxton apparently at all times), he got injured. Royce isn't injured now. He's healed. As @mikelink45 suggested, the odds of him getting hurt at Target Field aren't any greater than him playing at CHS Field. He's performed not only in AAA, but the Majors. Suggesting he hasn't been good in 5 years is ignoring a whole lot. Royce is ready. He's shown he's ready. Put him in the majors.
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