chpettit19

FYI, MLB announced they won't be suspending Clevinger. MLB’s statement: “The comprehensive investigation included interviews of more than 15 individuals, in addition to Mr. Clevinger and the complainant, as well as a review of available documents, such as thousands of electronic communication records. The Office of the Commissioner has closed this investigation and, barring the receipt of any new information or evidence, the Office of the Commissioner will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations. As part of his path forward, Mr. Clevinger has voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the joint treatment boards under the collectively bargained policies, and to comply with any of the boards’ recommendations. MLB will continue to make support services available to Mr. Clevinger, his family, and other individuals involved in the investigation.”

As of today I'd predict a QO for Mahle and Gray. Twins willing to pay the $20 mil for 1 year if they accept, or take their draft pick in return if they move on. Would expect them to touch base with Maeda on an extension if he comes back and performs to his career norms. Probably looking at a 1 year + option type deal they'd want with him.

It's not Lee's age that matters, it's that he was drafted 8 months ago and has played 31 professional games, only 4 of which were above A ball. There's a very real chance he shows he has the talent to play in the majors this year, but it's not likely to be super early in the year, and he's got other prospects to jump to do it. Whether we like it or not, service time will also be a factor. Just looking at his age is missing a lot of context. He can be the prospect everyone thinks/hopes he is and still not be a likely callup within a calendar year of being drafted. They're not just pushing a healthy, and performing, Correa, Miranda, Polanco, or Kirilloff aside for Lee. They're not going to call him up to play the short side of a platoon, utility IFer role of Solano or Farmer. And they're not likely to jump him over Julien if he's performing in AAA. They're not going to jump him over Lewis once he's back (which should be less than a calendar year after Lee was drafted). So it's likely that they need a serious injury to, or seriously bad play from, multiple of Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, and Lewis to get Lee real playing time. They're not calling him up, and starting his clock, for anything less than real playing time. He won't be coming up as a backup. If enough of the Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis group are injured or not playing well that it allows for Lee to come up for real playing time it's very likely things are going very poorly for the Twins offense.

I get that, but those outcomes aren't realistic. Which I think goes to the point @Mike Sixel is trying to make. If the major league team is doing well, veterans are performing, and the team is staying relatively healthy, there's not an easy to see, realistic way for multiple guys to come up and take jobs. And I'm not saying you were predicting those outcomes, but just saying they're very, very, very unlikely to happen. The most likely situation of a winning Twins team having veterans replaced is by replacing someone like Solano first. And I'd bet that the team's hope is that he's replaced by Lewis or Julien by July. But I think they'll be rather slow to replace most of the guys on the 26 man because they can't afford to have another season cratered by lack of depth. I think a segment of the fan base is too excited for the young guys and are expecting the Twins to give jobs to them quicker than the team realistically will. They aren't going to trade, or DFA, multiple veterans on a successful team. Maybe they'd trade Polanco for a haul, but they aren't trading Polanco, Gallo, and Kepler. I don't think they plan to move Farmer or Taylor at all. Injuries can change everything, but, barring that, I don't see a real easy path to more than 2 of these guys really getting a shot at taking jobs this year.

It will be interesting to see how they manage Martin and this potential injury problem. It's a very different situation than a pitcher having UCL problems. It's entirely possible Martin plays some to start this year with the injury still there and gets TJ later on. Or they could do the surgery now and plan/hope for a late season, and AFL, return. He couldn't play the field in these scenarios, but he could DH. I'm sure they're having a lot of conversations with him and trying to find a way to get something out of this season without sacrificing much, if any, of next season. Will be interesting to see what they decide to do.

If Wallner, Lewis, and Julien come up and OPS+ 125, 130, and 140 the Twins are winning the World Series this year.

I'd try to lock him up through his age 31 or 32 season if he'd be open to it. Relievers are a weird bunch. If you have an elite one into their early 30s you have to do everything you can to keep them because they're so rare. The rest are interchangeable and I wouldn't invest in at all. I think Duran is an elite one, and will remain elite into his early 30s. His velo can decline in his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons and he'd still be throwing harder than the average MLB pitcher. If I could have him locked in at much cheaper than market rates through the likely entirety of his elite years I'd do it. Diaz just got 20 mil a year from the Mets through his age 34 season (with an opt out and buy out mixed in). I'd try to lock Duran up now for the chance to save myself significant money down the road by buying out his first 2 or 3 years of free agency. Lower spending clubs can't take too many risks with long-term deals, but this is one I'd do. Basically locking in cost certainty on Buxton, Correa, and Duran for the rest of this decade. You can build a really nice roster with those 3 well below market values.

If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.

Has Rocco explained what he means by "long reliever?" I think that's a large part of any discussion around who could fill such a role. Does he mean a guy who can come in and finish out a blowout (winning or losing version) by covering 3, 4, or 5 innings? Or does he mean a guy who can come in and throw 2 or 3 innings 3 times in 10 days to give a 1 inning reliever or 2 a day off? That would really change the decision making in my mind. I don't know that I'd want to put anyone with a truly bright future in the first role. I don't want any of my young guys sitting around for 2 weeks not getting game action because the games have all been close. So if the role is that restrictive I'm going with Dobnak or Sands (sorry, just doesn't look like a real prospect to me). To me the "long reliever" they should be looking for is a guy, or 2, who can go 2 or 3 innings 3 times every 10 days to give the 1 inning relievers an extra day off. I expect the arms in this rotation to be able to get through 6 innings more often than not so I'd want 6 one inning relievers, and 2 "long relievers." There will definitely still be times where the starters only go 4 or 5 innings, and the "long relievers" would be who I use to cover an extra inning or 2 before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. If 6 one inning relievers can't cover the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings every day they're in trouble anyways. I'd use my "long relievers" in games the starters rack up high pitch counts early, or just don't have it, and can't get through 6. When I use them in the game would depend on where they are in the lineup when the starter comes out. If they're rolling into the top of the order when the starter comes out I'd use a 1 inning guy to get through them. Then turn to the "long reliever" for 2 innings to get me through the tail end of the lineup before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. All of this really depends on game situations, etc. But the overall "long reliever" question is more about what that role even looks like. I don't think a guy sitting around waiting for an injury to a starter, or a blowout early, is a good use of a roster spot. To me, "long reliever" is someone I use regularly to give a little extra rest to my big time 1 inning guys. So my search for a "long reliever" would be a combination of finding a 1 inning guy who can go 2 innings or a starter who I want to move to the bullpen. But I don't know what Rocco means when he talks about a long reliever.

There's multiple reports from many of the beat writers that Kirilloff has been taking live BP for at least a week.

I love the WBC! Stayed up way too late last night watching the first game, and got up too early this morning to watch that butt kicking. I want to see the best players in the world play against each other. It's a fantastic watch for me. Really excited to see what Julien can do for Canada. Maybe he can pick up a little nugget of hitting knowledge from Freddie Freeman during his time with him in that clubhouse. Pablo, Jorge, and Emilio are the arms I care about watching. Is Pablo dominant? Jorge looking more like the Baltimore version from last year or the Twins? Emilio still terrible and I still need to be cranky he's on the roster? Should be a great few weeks of really great baseball!

Kirilloff is a concern until July for me. If he's still feeling good then I'll start to relax about the wrist. Larnach is a little concerning that he's turning into a Buxton type and just has injuries to various parts of his body constantly bugging him. TJ for Martin would be a real bummer, but if it's done soon it'd be possible/likely that he could return to DH at the end of the season (in the minors) and then go DH in the AFL so it isn't a completely lost year. Otherwise, I'm not concerned about any of these situations. Buxton is Buxton. Henriquez is young and a missed year doesn't kill his career (especially being on the ML 60-day and getting those ML checks all year). Most pitchers get TJ now so it just is what it is, unfortunately. Polanco has hit the IL once in 9 years. Not concerned about him (he's only 29, not 35). Balazovic isn't a baseball related injury. Celestino was pegged for a year in AAA anyways, and won't miss much game time there. Gordon should be back before the season starts. Nothing really to write home about here.

The Luis Castillo trade, and extension, are probably the best comps. And Burnes is better, and younger, so he'd actually demand a little more. The Reds got Marte (top 15 global prospect at the time), and Arroyo (2nd round pick in 2021) as major position player prospects. They got Levi Stoudt (top 5 system prospect), and Andrew Moore as pitching prospects. That's 3 top 5 system prospects, 2 of which are top 50 global prospects right now. A pitcher 1 year younger, and nowhere near as good, as Burnes with massive injury concerns (Ober), a 25 year old DH with massive contact and K concerns (Wallner), and a 23 year old utility player prospect with tanking value (Martin) isn't enough to even get the Brewers to call you back. In fact they probably don't even answer your next 15 phone calls if that's your starting offer. Any offer that didn't include Lee or Lewis would get an immediate hang-up. And, honestly, it'd probably take both Lee and Lewis to get anything done. The Twins likely don't have the prospect capital to pull a trade for Burnes unless you're including both Lee and Lewis, or ERod comes out hot and then it's likely 2 of those 3 plus 2 more prospects, 1 of which being top 10 in the system, required. Castillo signed a 5 year, $108 million extension with Seattle after the trade. That's the floor for Burnes. Again, he's younger and better, so he'd likely demand even more than that. Especially knowing he went to arbitration in an attempt to up the amount of money he was getting, and the amount players around the league make. He's going to demand big money, and likely years. If you're talking just a short 2 or 3 year deal the comp is Verlander/Scherzer. And they got $86 million for 2 years (Verlander) and $130 million for 3 years (Scherzer).

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

Welcome to Twins Daily, and Twins territory! Thanks for this inside look into our next star!

Best prize there is!

Whoa, whoa, whoa! I don't get a prize for being the biggest know it all with the most opinions on things?! @Brock Beauchamp don't you know how the internet works?! 😄

It can be true that the majority of baseball doesn't have a great recent track record with homegrown starters.

That's some solid pop, but man the word "elite" gets thrown around way too willy nilly these days.

Yes, boss.

Why? The argument was made that he only played 3B. He didn't. I don't know why there's a need to look at it any other way. It's nothing major. But the idea that he played his entire career at 1 position, and was never moved for any reason, is factually wrong.

Correa was going to move to 3B with the Mets, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what the Sano point is. He was a terrible defender everywhere they put him. They were just trying to hide him in places. That's totally fine. Reasonable people are allowed to disagree 🙂

Nobody called him a utility player. That's kind of my point. You said "can you imagine Eddie Mathews playing any place than 3B?" And he did play places other than 3B. An entire season's worth of games at other positions. He's not an example of someone who filled a position "from beginning to end." Because the vast majority of players don't just get drafted at 1 position and stay there their entire career. Unless they're already at, or near, the bottom of the defensive ladder. That's kind of my point here. Players not playing every career game at 1 position doesn't make them "positionless" or "utility players." It makes them baseball players. The Twins aren't trying to make everyone utility players. Players playing a little bit in other places is normal baseball that's been taking place for decades. It's why I think it's a topic that's discussed too much. People seem to think it's a new phenomenon. It isn't. This isn't even directed at you, really, but you made it easier to prove the point with the Mathews example. The title of this article is click-bait, and misleading. I mean it doesn't even really match the narrative of the article. Then the article goes on to try to make it sound like the Twins are bouncing guys all over instead of just developing them at 1 position. It fails to explain that this is what the vast majority of players go through. The Twins aren't trying to create positionless, or utility, players. They're developing players the same way every other team does.

Do you think the Cards should move Jordan Walker to RF? He's a better prospect than anything in the Twins system and the Cards are moving him from 3B to RF. Gunnar Henderson is maybe the best prospect in baseball and the Orioles moved him from SS to 3B when he got to the bigs. And now may move him back to SS. Corbin Carroll could also make an argument that he's the best prospect in baseball, and could win GGs in CF, but he moved to LF when he got promoted. Manny Machado came up as a SS. Trea Turner came up as a SS, moved to CF, moved to 2B, then moved back to SS. Fernando Tatis Jr came up as a SS and is now moving to RF. Juan Soto has bounced back and forth between LF and RF. Kyle Schwarber came up as a C. That's all just off the top of my head. This is just how promotions and roster construction works. Lewis and Lee may have had shots at being big league SSs, but now the Twins have a platinum glove winner there. Same reason Walker is moving to RF. That Arenado guy in St Louis is pretty good at 3B. I think the moving around of players is too big of a discussion point in general. It's incredibly normal. And fielding a grounder at 3B isn't that much different than fielding them at SS or 2B or 1B. There's nuances to playing positions, but if you can play SS, you can play 3B. The general idea is you keep guys as high on the defensive ladder as possible, for as long as possible. It's why Martin has been getting reps at SS when almost nobody expects him to stay there. Give him a chance to show what he can do at the top of the ladder because even if he has to slide down a few spots in the bigs he'll have been working on the skills it takes to play those other spots well. It's easier to move from the IF to the OF since being truly good at fielding grounders takes more skill than getting to and catching fly balls. Some guys simply can't judge fly balls well enough, but most elite athletes can. So teams keep guys on the dirt as long as they can (like Walker for the Cardinals) before moving them if they're blocked in the majors. Lee will continue to get time at SS because it's the highest spot he has a chance to play on the ladder. Once his bat is ready the Twins will move him to 3B or 2B if that's what's needed based on the roster. Teams aren't trying to create utility players, they're trying to keep guys as high on the ladder as they can for as long as they can. Or they're trying to find a spot that the guy could succeed (Julien being the example there). They move the guy around some early in their careers to see what they look like in different spots, and give them an idea of the highest spot on the ladder they could succeed. Then they give them time to work at 1 position (Julien at 2B last year). Then they reassess and make adjustments. It's not all about how their bodies develop. And it's not done on a whim. The guys making these decisions are incredibly good at scouting players and seeing things that give them hope, or doubts, about a player's ability to stick at certain positions.

Eddie Mathews played 52 games in LF, and 112 games at 1B in the majors, FYI.