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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    In terms of simply developing MLB players this FO is above average. In terms of developing stars they have room for improvement. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but only 66% of 1st round picks even make the majors, let alone succeed there. This FO has had well above average number players reach the majors (Brent Rooker for example), but haven't been able to produce stars (health being an obvious concern for at least 2 of their best posibilities). It's why they need Correa and Buxton to be the stars they expect them to be. They can fill the periphery of their roster with homegrown guys, but until Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, whoever can establish themselves as a cheap, homegrown star they're going to have a "compete for the central" ceiling on this club.
  2. chpettit19
    Yes, because if his wrist is still a problem in July there's no reason to think it'll ever not be a problem. He got the all clear. His wrist is physically as good as it's going to get in terms of surgery recovery (according to what him and the team have said). There's no reason he should need another 3+ months for his wrist. If he can't perform well enough between now and July to earn a spot in this awful offense there's no reason to think he'll be able to. Again, I've never said a "strong decision" like cutting him would be made in July. They aren't just going to cut him. But if it's the middle of June and he isn't hitting well enough to be in the majors he simply isn't the player we all want(ed) him to be. A player of that caliber simply doesn't need months and months of games to get his hitting down. He's already debuted. He's not 20 year old ERod still trying to earn promotions. The question with Kirilloff is whether or not he can get back to who he was. If it takes until July for him to earn a promotion he'll have been passed over. A 25 year old, already debuted, top end prospect doesn't take until July to get up to speed. He's no longer a high end prospect if he needs 3+ months to show he's a good player at this point of his career.
  3. chpettit19
    I didn't say "the next few weeks." You said "the majority of the season." The season is 6+ months long. If he's in the minors for over 3 months for any reason he's no longer a top end prospect, and they'd move beyond him in their plans. Nobody said they'd cut him, but he wouldn't be part of their future plans in terms of having a spot on the 26-man roster locked up for 2024. If he's 26 and doesn't have a spot on the 26-man locked up he's just another guy in the system. Like Garlick for example. Or Cave before him. They didn't just completely get rid of Garlick, but he isn't part of their team building plans beyond being a depth piece. This is 100% a make or break year for Kirilloff. If he can't establish himself as a legit major leaguer this year he's just a depth piece and they won't have him as part of their future plans. Him spending "the majority of the season" in AAA would be an absolute disaster for him. Whether it's because of his wrist or his performance. Doesn't matter. Same with Larnach, Gordon, etc. If they don't establish themselves this year they're done as possible pieces of the future core when it comes to team planning. If any of these guys are spending most of the season in AAA it's a sign they aren't who they expected them to be and it's time to move them down the pecking order and look for upgrades.
  4. chpettit19
    The Twins, and Alex, have all said the Drs have fully cleared him. There's nothing "wrong" with his wrist anymore from a surgery sense. Of course there's timing, strength, etc. things to be considered. But you said "majority of the season." If it takes him until July to get his timing down he's not a high end prospect anymore. Shoot, he's not a prospect of any kind if it takes him the majority of the season to get his timing down. If his strength is a question why is he playing back to back days now? If it takes him until July to get his confidence back he's not a high end prospect anymore. Setbacks means his wrist isn't right, and you can't count on him if his wrist still isn't right. He's 25 and coming off 2 straight season ending surgeries to his wrist. They've all said this was the last resort surgery. If this doesn't fix it his wrist likely ends his career, or at least ends any chance he's a high end major leaguer. If there's setbacks after he's been given the all clear (which he has) he's no longer a high end prospect. 3 straight years of his wrist not allowing him to perform ends any talk of him being a high end prospect. Him spending most of the season in AAA for any of these reasons means he's no longer to be counted on as a top end prospect.
  5. chpettit19
    If it takes him "the majority of the season" to get his wrist right there's no way they can count on it staying right and have him be a large part of their plan going into next season. He's in AAA and has been playing back to back days, albeit only 7 innings I believe (side note: does an extra 2 innings in the field really matter that much? 7 is a weird number of innings to me). From what I've seen (I've watched about half his ABs) he's swinging just fine and hitting the ball well. If he's still there 4+ months from now because his wrist still isn't right he moves fully to "hey, it'd be great if he surprises and takes a spot, but we're bringing in someone else to take 1B fulltime."
  6. chpettit19
    I see we're still doing this Ober v Maeda thing. Ober will get plenty of starts for the Twins this year. Guys will get hurt and actually go on the IL. He'll be the guy called up for them. I don't get the desire to relegate any of these guys to a long relief role. You really want Maeda or Ober sitting around for weeks on end not pitching instead of someone like Sands? I don't understand that at all. The Twins are going to need, at a minimum, 8-10 starters this year. It's April 19th, why are we acting like it's some travesty that a guy who's cracked 100 innings once in his professional career is in AAA and is doomed to stay there all season?
  7. chpettit19
    If Kirilloff spends the majority of the year in AAA it'd mean he's no longer a part of their future plans. It'd be an absolute disaster if he spends most of the year in AAA.
  8. chpettit19
    Will be interesting to see what they do today to open Gallo's spot. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be Julien and have them shift Solano over to 2B, but wouldn't be surprised if it's Castro either. My bet would be Julien, but I don't feel strongly about it. They just wouldn't have him sitting on the bench like they would with Castro. But if they're willing to give Julien more chances to find his footing everyday vs righties, and feel comfortable with Gordon as the backup at SS it could be Castro. I don't think Kepler loses ABs to Gallo yet. Gallo is going to slot back in vs righties at 1B, I'd guess. Kepler, Gordon, and Larnach are fighting each other for ABs now. One of them needs to figure it out. I'm a Larnach believer, but he needs to get more aggressive and swing at some of these "get me over" breaking balls they lob him for early strikes. My guess: 4/19 Gallo is reinstated off IL and Julien heads to St Paul. Gallo takes over as fulltime 1B. Gordon/Solano platoon at 2B. 4/25 (I believe he can stay on rehab til then) Polanco reinstated off IL and Castro heads to St Paul. Polanco fulltime 2B. Gallo/Solano platoon at 1B. Kepler/Gallo platoon in RF. 3/1 (I believe it's the day he has to be taken off rehab) Kirilloff reinstated off IL and this is where a real decision has to be made. Gordon/Larnach/Garlick fighting for their 26-man spot over the next week and a half. Gordon having a leg up with having no options, and being the most versatile defensively. Garlick having next best shot because he's a righty. Larnach being sent down if he continues to struggle as he has options, and is one of many lefty bats. Larnach coming back to life makes the decision far harder for 26-man spot decision.
  9. chpettit19
    FYI, Castro does have 1 option left.
  10. chpettit19
    The lineup they released does in fact include Garlick, and there's been no Gallo activation to my knowledge. I'd assume Gallo is in Boston, though. I haven't seen anyone say that, but I'd guess he'd have met the team yesterday and is prepared to start Wednesday. Will be interesting to see who they send down for him.
  11. chpettit19
    Who was the pitcher? How were their velo and spin rate numbers? What kind of contact were they giving up? What is their history of going further into a game? What was the game situation? Basically, what was a reasonable prediction for what their performance would've been moving forward, and how would it impact the team's ability to win the game? They pulled Sonny Gray after 5 shutout on June 15th. It was his first start back after his 2nd IL stint in less than 2 months. Did you factor that into things? The other time they pulled Sonny after 5 shutout he was at 96 pitches. So they didn't do what you're complaining about with that good pitcher. Best argument for it with Ryan was July 13 or 23 when they pulled him in the middle of the 6th at 78 and 86 pitches. He'd given up 1 run in both those games. In the game on the 13th he was pulled for a lefty lefty matchup (Thielbar vs Telez) in a 1-1 tie (Twins won the game 4-1 on a 3 run walkoff by Miranda). In the game on the 23rd he was pulled after giving up a triple, a single, and deep flyball in a game the Twins were leading 2-0 when the inning started, and 2-1 when he left (Twins won this one, too. Stupid Rocco). So they weren't pulling that good pitcher in crazy situations. They didn't have any other good starters. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer weren't good enough to be trusted to go longer than 5 innings in close games. The rest of their starters (outside Ober who only made a handful of starts) shouldn't have even been in the majors. Not to mention 6 (or around the half dozen you claim) out of 162 games is not a great data set to be calling something a strategy. My point is that if you're going to blanket something as a team strategy you better have more than 3.7% of the games as your sample size, and if you're going to claim it wasn't about the talent of the pitcher they better have been doing it with their good pitchers, which they weren't. Thus my statement of it being about the talent of this starting staff, and not some organizational approach change.
  12. chpettit19
    You said "Graterol was more than what they were willing to receive in trade. They'd have settle for less." So you started off with the Dodgers got more than they expected, and would've taken a lesser package than Graterol. I questioned why you believe that because I disagree. You said "The Twins weren't motivated to trade their top pitching prospect Graterol." You're now stating that Graterol was their best pitching prospect, and thus a valuable trade piece. I disagreed because he was a reliever. You said "My suggestion would to offer an equal value trade that'd include a different SP + power bat prospects or 2 different SP prospects, instead of Graterol. Which would be more benefical to the Twins & LAD might agree upon (because of their situation)." At this point you seem to be saying that you have switched from "the Twins gave up more than the Dodgers were expecting" to "well they could've sent a different combination of players that were the same value." I guess that's where the confusion comes from. Your original statment was that they'd have "settled for less." I applied that thought to your subsequent statements and understood you to be saying that a combination of a different SP+power bat or 2 different SP prospects would've been a lesser value than Graterol since your initial premise was the Twins gave up more than they needed to. I'm sure there were other players in the Twins org that the Dodgers would've also accepted. I disagree that Graterol was their best pitching prospect (because he was a reliever), and that he was worth more than either of your proposed combinations. Him being a reliever means he's automatically worth less than any individual player in either of those packages, unless you're talking about non-prospects that the Dodgers wouldn't have been interested in anyways. A SP prospect and a power bat prospect are both worth more individually than a reliever prospect. We seem to disagree on what Graterol was, and thus what all of the pieces included really value at. But debating these things is why we're here. I appreciate the back and forth. But we'll just have to agree to disagree.
  13. chpettit19
    Yeah, that's not less value than Graterol. We can just agree to disagree here. Graterol was a reliever by the time he got traded. That is not an overly valuable piece no matter where he may have shown up on prospect rankings that rank him as a starter still. Giving up multiple starter prospects instead of a reliever prospect is giving up more value, not less. It was publicly known that Graterol was a reliever at that point and his value wasn't that high. In 28 total appearances in 2019 he made 11 starts, and all 10 of his major league appearances were out of the pen. He'd already started his shift to the pen and Boston put it out publicly that his arm had concerns, and he couldn't be more than a reliever. That is not a highly valuable piece. But to each their own.
  14. chpettit19
    Them "shopping him" and him having requested a trade doesn't mean they're just going to give him away. Everyone knew Graterol was a reliever by then. His value wasn't all that high. Especially after the Red Sox refused him because they realized he was a reliever with possible arm problems. A reliever is never worth more than a starter. Especially when it's a rookie reliever (with possible arm problems) vs an established starter. It's pretty massive assumption that they'd have taken less. And Kenta wasn't being used "primarily as a RP." He was shifted to the pen late the last 3 seasons with the Dodgers, but he made more starts than relief appearances in every one of his seasons there. 32 G with 32 GS (no relief appearances). 29 G with 25 GS (4 relief appearances to 25 starts). 39 G with 20 GS (this one was close with only 1 more start). 37 G with 26 starts (back to more than twice as many starts). Overall he made 103 starts and 34 relief appearances for the Dodgers. That is not how I'd define being used "primarily as a RP."
  15. chpettit19
    Oh, me neither. But he serves the purpose of the long man role they're looking for.
  16. chpettit19
    I don't think this is a "Sands had his chance" situation. The Twins wanted to push Maeda's start back. Sands had just thrown multiple innings and wasn't going to get that spot start so they needed to call someone else up. Sands was the obvious choice to be sent down. After he was sent down for Varland to make that start he isn't allowed to be called back up for 10 days. It hasn't been 10 days so Sands wasn't an option to come back and fill the long relief role again. I'm not predicting it, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see Headrick sent back down after pitching 0 innings for the Twins and Sands come back and take his spot after the 10 days.
  17. chpettit19
    They also had Gray, Ryan, and Paddack going 6 and 7 innings last April. So maybe they haven't adjusted approach, but just have better pitchers.
  18. chpettit19
    What makes you think they'd have settled for less?
  19. chpettit19
    Yeah, I don't see this FO dropping Lee into the lineup midseason if the offense is "fine." They're not going to start his clock if the offense is staying afloat. Could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on them doing that. Unless he's hitting .400 and slugging .600. And I don't see that from him. I'm excited for him, but I don't think he has Lewis' ceiling, and think fans are setting themselves up for another Sano situation where they're disappointed that an above average hitter isn't a generational hitter. Lee will be a different kind of hitter than Sano, but I don't think he's the guy some people seem to think he is. I think he's more likely to be good at everything, and not great at anything, and fans will disappointed that he's not an perennial all star. So, because of all this, I don't see him debuting midseason.
  20. chpettit19
    Sure, there's some other options. But if Miranda moves to first they'd go with Lewis at 3B before Lee, right? I fail to see any situation where Lee in the majors mid-season is a good thing in the overall picture of the team. They're at least 2 deep at his positions in guys they hope are part of their future, unless they're moving Lewis to the OF. I don't see them calling up Lee if everyone is "fine." But I don't really see how they could all be "fine" and they'd still need offense so I'm not really sure exactly what you mean with that. My point is simply that if Lee is up by midseason they're onto their 3rd option (at least) at some position. And that's not good for a team built with the intention of winning the division, and making some noise in the playoffs.
  21. chpettit19
    I didn't say anything about skipping AAA. There's a number of posts on here talking about him debuting for the Twins in June. I was responding to those. Some of them spoke to it being an injury situation if he were on the Twins in June. I agree with that. But I'll be one to suggest that he skip AAA if that's what the situation calls for. I just think it'd mean things have gone wrong in the majors if he's up by June, whether he skips AAA or not. But getting time in AAA shouldn't be a requirement for any prospect. Especially not one we hope is a star.
  22. chpettit19
    As far as the "Lee promotion" talk goes, I'd think him being up in June is probably a bad sign for the Twins offense. They aren't going to call him up for anything other than a fulltime starting spot. That would come at SS, 3B, or 2B. If he's starting at SS it means Correa is hurt. That's bad. There's some other players (Lewis and Farmer mostly) who could claim the spot if Correa goes down, but it could be Lee if he's tearing the cover off the ball in the minors. But, no matter what, Correa going down and opening the SS spot is bad. If he's starting at 3B it means Miranda is hurt or struggling mightily. Both bad options. Same situation with Lewis and Farmer being possibilities, but a red hot Lee maybe being the option by June. Either way, it's bad if Miranda isn't at 3B everyday in June. If he's starting at 2B it means both Polanco and Julien are hurt or not performing. Not to mention Lewis/Farmer/Gordon/Solano who could be pushed aside for Lee if he's on fire. But if both Polanco and Julien aren't available to start at 2B in June it's bad for the Twins. Overall I don't see many super great situations where Lee is called up in June. It likely means some combination of 2 of Correa, Polanco, Miranda, Julien, and Lewis are struggling or hurt. That'd be a bad situation for the Twins even if it is nice to have Lee as the backup to the backup plan. Seeing much of Lee at all this year is probably not a great sign.
  23. chpettit19
    Yes.
  24. chpettit19
    I thought these were all pretty straight forward placements. De Andrade showed he was too good for rookie ball. He may be younger than his teammates, but there's plenty of 19 year olds in A ball. Seems pretty obvious to move him from a level he mastered to a new level to start this year. There's multiple 18 year olds in that league even. I guess there could've been some thought that ERod's sample size in A was too small and to start him there for this year. But he was dominating so it seems pretty straight forward to bump him up to a league that will challenge him more. Prielipp's question has never been about talent, just health, and innings limits. You can limit his innings anywhere. Made sense to start him at A+ ball. It's awful to hear he's already meeting with Drs about that elbow, though. Really hope that kid doesn't turn into the next Canterino. Lee had a handful of ABs in AA last year. There's no real argument to be made, in my opinion, for starting him in AAA this year. What would be the point? Once you're at AA you're on the MLB doorstep, and there's no reason to not let him get his footing at AA to start the season. He got a lot of ABs in spring, but he wasn't exactly dominating. Julien didn't really have a shot to crack the opening day lineup unless Gordon also went down. They'd never start the year with a prospect sitting on the bench in the bigs instead of getting everyday ABs in the minors. That'd be terrible roster/prospect management. Julien was always going to AAA until a starting spot opened up. It did so now he's in the bigs. Once Polanco comes back he'll probably be the one heading back to AAA where he can get everyday starts. Pretty straight forward stuff. It's a good "problem" to have that you can afford to keep your top guys in the minors when they still have things to work on. It's only a real problem if they've conquered AAA and you're leaving them there to play bad big leaguers at their positions.
  25. chpettit19
    Oh, I don't think they dislike him or anything. They just don't LOVE him. They didn't create a starting spot for him this year like they did for Miranda (for example), and basically all of his opportunities have come because others were hurt. He made the most of the opportunity last year, but hasn't so far this year. He makes some terrible swing decisions and it makes it hard to maintain solid production. I was just trying to say that Gordon doesn't appear to be one of "their guys," and I don't expect them to go out of their way to keep him around like they do with thereliever who shall not be named (who's actually off to a solid start). So when it comes time to make decisions about 26- and 40-man spots if/when the whole, or close to whole, roster is healthy I think a Gordon DFA is possible if he doesn't start showing something. These are good problems to have, though. I'm much happier with them having to make tough decisions on guys like Gordon than the simple decisions on guys like Cave, Beckham, and Contreras (no offense to them).
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