chpettit19

I like platoons in the 6-9 spots in the order when, as you said, you get a feel for who's hitting who during the year. I want 5 guys in the 1-5 spots 95% of the time (for the Twins hopefully 5 of Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, maybe Lee at some point). I want that core of the lineup that you can, and do, put out there day after day no matter who's on the mound. If you have 6 or 7 guys, like I named above, then role them out there 95% of the time. Then you fill the rest of the spots with platoons to optimize the lineup. Plus the catcher tandem that isn't usually a straight platoon. These days most teams sit in the 2-5 range in terms of number of guys who play everyday. If the Twins can get to the top end of that range they have a chance to be really good. Buxton, Correa, and Polanco are the guys they seem to trust no matter what at this point. Buxton's playing time is what it is, and they're never going to just throw him out there everyday like we all wish we could see, but when he isn't on his rest day he's in there no matter who's pitching. They NEED those 3 to be at, or near, their best. And they need a couple of the young guys to step up. We'll see who can. I also believe in coaching, improving, etc., but I try to be reasonable about expectations for improvement. If somebody has been something year after year I'm not going to expect them to be something different because it's likely a talent/skill level that's holding them back because almost all these guys work incredibly hard. The ultimate example of players telling you who they are was Khris Davis who hit .247 4 years in a row from 2015-2018, after having hit .244 in 2014. He was a .247 hitter. I wouldn't have been holding out hope that with some coaching and hard work he'd hit .275 in 2019. That's just not what his talent level was (unfortunately 2019 saw the start of a steep decline to the end of his career in 2021). I generally try to stay away from blaming coaching, work ethic, etc. unless I have some really good knowledge of what the coaches and players are doing. If it were simply coaching and work ethic there's a number of people on these boards who'd be pro athletes. At some point your talent is your talent, and there's a ceiling on everyone's.

Yeah, I'm sure those are the options, but none of them are all that exciting to me. I'm all for getting rid of Pagan as I believe his early season success this year is less indicative of his future performance than yesterday was. But nobody in AAA has me thinking they're significantly better than him. And if Moran and Alcala don't get more consistent (makes me sad, cuz I like them both a lot) then you need 3 guys from AAA and I'm way more nervous. This is the nature of pens, though. You cycle through until you find the guys that are working that year. Luckily their big arms have looked nice to start so hopefully they're only filling the 5-7 spots in the pen, and interchanging the long guy, and that's far less of a problem than having to cycle guys trying to find your top 4 arms.

That'd be my guess for how things play out as well. I don't see a lot of options for them to do much in the bullpen at this point. Beyond switching the AAA guys in and out as needed. I'm not sure what they do if/when it's time to move on from Pagan, or give Moran/Alcala a AAA reset. They don't have anyone I see as a good possibility to take that 1-2 inning reliever role. Unless they're moving Winder to that kind of role, and I'd be on board with that. But I have a relatively quick trigger on moving starters to relievers if they can't hold up to the starter workload so I know some people would disagree with me on this.

Don't disagree that there's a need for a shakeup in the Pagan-Moran-Alcala section of the pen, but who do they have to replace them? Are they ready to move Sands, Winder, or Headrick to a fulltime relief spot? Would they run with 2 long relievers and have 2 of those guys in the pen to be used for multiple inning stints? If that's the plan, I'd think only 1 of them can fill the role in the fashion they're currently deploying it as you can't have 2 roster spots dedicated to guys who sit around and wait for blowup games, or injured pitchers. Would they be willing to use 1 of those guys in close games for multiple innings? I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade on Pagan-Moran-Alcala. They built depth everywhere on the roster but the pen. I don't know who you can replace those 3 with since they lost their depth in ST when they DFA'd guys and they got snatched up. Put themselves in a tough spot here.

100% agree the arms will keep us close. Part of that is tied to the defense, obviously. I think too much emphasis was given to bounce backs, health, and being able to take advantage of platoon splits. I think that's something we don't discuss enough. Solano and Farmer vs lefties and Gordon and Kepler vs righties is all well and good as long as Solano and Farmer are hitting lefties and Gordon and Kepler are hitting righties. When Gordon and Kepler aren't hitting righties it all falls apart. Which isn't terrible if they're hitting 7-9 in the order, but they aren't because the health hasn't been there yet. At least Gallo has an early bounce back, though. He's looked like a wonderful signing, and I hope he keeps it up. The caveat to this all is the same as usual, small sample size. Buxton was hitting over .300 a week ago. He has 1 more hit than you and I in the last week so things look terrible. But this is how it'll be until the end of May. We just won't really know what things are looking like until we get a little deeper into the year, and a little warmer weather. But I don't see much hope for help if the top guys don't produce, because, as you said, the guys brought in, or kept in Kepler's case, are much more productive in the field than at the plate.

As shocking as it may be, I agree with you, Chief. This offense just doesn't have the top end bats. It'd been my argument for Kepler being useful in previous years. The problem wasn't that he wasn't a useful player, it's that he was expected to be a core offensive piece when that's never what he's been. This team has too many 6 hole through bench players, and not enough top 5 in a lineup bats so guys like Kepler, Gordon, etc. are pushed into spots they don't belong. Those guys as platoon bats at the bottom of the order are good, but as leadoff, 3 hole, 4 hole types? You're not winning with that. Correa is a decent enough second best hitter on a championship type club. They need someone who's consistently over an .850 OPS every year, though. Preferably 2, but there's only about 30 guys a year that do that so 1 over .850+Correa is a solid place to start. Buxton is too streaky to be one of the top 2 bats in a lineup. Good Buxton in the playoffs could do what Rosario did a couple years ago and win a series for you on his own, but the odds are better that he disappears and Ks 12 times in the series. This club desperately needs Lewis and/or Kirilloff to be a top 3 in the order hitter. They need Miranda to be a top 5 hitter, and they need Polanco to be his usual self. That's their only chance at having an offense good enough to be playoff worthy. I'm not sure that'll happen. And I'm not sure Rocco/the FO would just put the top 5 guys in their spots 95% of the time and let it role. The offense has always been the biggest question mark this season, and it'll remain one until Polanco, Kirilloff, and Lewis start playing and we see what they look like. Correa, Polanco, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Miranda carry the fate of this team. Now and into the future.

Their problem isn't so much chasing pitches as missing pitches in the zone. Sano's chase percent for his career was 25.5. League average is 28.4. Buxton is at 27.5 this year which is only slightly up from his 26.8 last year. Neither is/was crazy good at laying off pitches outside the zone, but they are/were above average at it. But their zone contact rates are both below average. Leave average is 82. Sano had a career 73.4 rate, and Buxton is at 80.6. Buxton's whiff rate of 29.3 is way over the league average of 24.7. He's aggressive in the zone, and good enough at not chasing, but he's simply swinging and missing, or fouling off, at too high of a rate. Same as Sano's problems. Buxton isn't a high walk guy because he's really aggressive at swinging at pitches in the zone (78.3% compared to league average of 69). Chasing isn't the problem, missing on his swings is.

In terms of simply developing MLB players this FO is above average. In terms of developing stars they have room for improvement. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but only 66% of 1st round picks even make the majors, let alone succeed there. This FO has had well above average number players reach the majors (Brent Rooker for example), but haven't been able to produce stars (health being an obvious concern for at least 2 of their best posibilities). It's why they need Correa and Buxton to be the stars they expect them to be. They can fill the periphery of their roster with homegrown guys, but until Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, whoever can establish themselves as a cheap, homegrown star they're going to have a "compete for the central" ceiling on this club.

Yes, because if his wrist is still a problem in July there's no reason to think it'll ever not be a problem. He got the all clear. His wrist is physically as good as it's going to get in terms of surgery recovery (according to what him and the team have said). There's no reason he should need another 3+ months for his wrist. If he can't perform well enough between now and July to earn a spot in this awful offense there's no reason to think he'll be able to. Again, I've never said a "strong decision" like cutting him would be made in July. They aren't just going to cut him. But if it's the middle of June and he isn't hitting well enough to be in the majors he simply isn't the player we all want(ed) him to be. A player of that caliber simply doesn't need months and months of games to get his hitting down. He's already debuted. He's not 20 year old ERod still trying to earn promotions. The question with Kirilloff is whether or not he can get back to who he was. If it takes until July for him to earn a promotion he'll have been passed over. A 25 year old, already debuted, top end prospect doesn't take until July to get up to speed. He's no longer a high end prospect if he needs 3+ months to show he's a good player at this point of his career.

I didn't say "the next few weeks." You said "the majority of the season." The season is 6+ months long. If he's in the minors for over 3 months for any reason he's no longer a top end prospect, and they'd move beyond him in their plans. Nobody said they'd cut him, but he wouldn't be part of their future plans in terms of having a spot on the 26-man roster locked up for 2024. If he's 26 and doesn't have a spot on the 26-man locked up he's just another guy in the system. Like Garlick for example. Or Cave before him. They didn't just completely get rid of Garlick, but he isn't part of their team building plans beyond being a depth piece. This is 100% a make or break year for Kirilloff. If he can't establish himself as a legit major leaguer this year he's just a depth piece and they won't have him as part of their future plans. Him spending "the majority of the season" in AAA would be an absolute disaster for him. Whether it's because of his wrist or his performance. Doesn't matter. Same with Larnach, Gordon, etc. If they don't establish themselves this year they're done as possible pieces of the future core when it comes to team planning. If any of these guys are spending most of the season in AAA it's a sign they aren't who they expected them to be and it's time to move them down the pecking order and look for upgrades.

The Twins, and Alex, have all said the Drs have fully cleared him. There's nothing "wrong" with his wrist anymore from a surgery sense. Of course there's timing, strength, etc. things to be considered. But you said "majority of the season." If it takes him until July to get his timing down he's not a high end prospect anymore. Shoot, he's not a prospect of any kind if it takes him the majority of the season to get his timing down. If his strength is a question why is he playing back to back days now? If it takes him until July to get his confidence back he's not a high end prospect anymore. Setbacks means his wrist isn't right, and you can't count on him if his wrist still isn't right. He's 25 and coming off 2 straight season ending surgeries to his wrist. They've all said this was the last resort surgery. If this doesn't fix it his wrist likely ends his career, or at least ends any chance he's a high end major leaguer. If there's setbacks after he's been given the all clear (which he has) he's no longer a high end prospect. 3 straight years of his wrist not allowing him to perform ends any talk of him being a high end prospect. Him spending most of the season in AAA for any of these reasons means he's no longer to be counted on as a top end prospect.

If it takes him "the majority of the season" to get his wrist right there's no way they can count on it staying right and have him be a large part of their plan going into next season. He's in AAA and has been playing back to back days, albeit only 7 innings I believe (side note: does an extra 2 innings in the field really matter that much? 7 is a weird number of innings to me). From what I've seen (I've watched about half his ABs) he's swinging just fine and hitting the ball well. If he's still there 4+ months from now because his wrist still isn't right he moves fully to "hey, it'd be great if he surprises and takes a spot, but we're bringing in someone else to take 1B fulltime."

I see we're still doing this Ober v Maeda thing. Ober will get plenty of starts for the Twins this year. Guys will get hurt and actually go on the IL. He'll be the guy called up for them. I don't get the desire to relegate any of these guys to a long relief role. You really want Maeda or Ober sitting around for weeks on end not pitching instead of someone like Sands? I don't understand that at all. The Twins are going to need, at a minimum, 8-10 starters this year. It's April 19th, why are we acting like it's some travesty that a guy who's cracked 100 innings once in his professional career is in AAA and is doomed to stay there all season?

If Kirilloff spends the majority of the year in AAA it'd mean he's no longer a part of their future plans. It'd be an absolute disaster if he spends most of the year in AAA.

Will be interesting to see what they do today to open Gallo's spot. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be Julien and have them shift Solano over to 2B, but wouldn't be surprised if it's Castro either. My bet would be Julien, but I don't feel strongly about it. They just wouldn't have him sitting on the bench like they would with Castro. But if they're willing to give Julien more chances to find his footing everyday vs righties, and feel comfortable with Gordon as the backup at SS it could be Castro. I don't think Kepler loses ABs to Gallo yet. Gallo is going to slot back in vs righties at 1B, I'd guess. Kepler, Gordon, and Larnach are fighting each other for ABs now. One of them needs to figure it out. I'm a Larnach believer, but he needs to get more aggressive and swing at some of these "get me over" breaking balls they lob him for early strikes. My guess: 4/19 Gallo is reinstated off IL and Julien heads to St Paul. Gallo takes over as fulltime 1B. Gordon/Solano platoon at 2B. 4/25 (I believe he can stay on rehab til then) Polanco reinstated off IL and Castro heads to St Paul. Polanco fulltime 2B. Gallo/Solano platoon at 1B. Kepler/Gallo platoon in RF. 3/1 (I believe it's the day he has to be taken off rehab) Kirilloff reinstated off IL and this is where a real decision has to be made. Gordon/Larnach/Garlick fighting for their 26-man spot over the next week and a half. Gordon having a leg up with having no options, and being the most versatile defensively. Garlick having next best shot because he's a righty. Larnach being sent down if he continues to struggle as he has options, and is one of many lefty bats. Larnach coming back to life makes the decision far harder for 26-man spot decision.

FYI, Castro does have 1 option left.

The lineup they released does in fact include Garlick, and there's been no Gallo activation to my knowledge. I'd assume Gallo is in Boston, though. I haven't seen anyone say that, but I'd guess he'd have met the team yesterday and is prepared to start Wednesday. Will be interesting to see who they send down for him.

Who was the pitcher? How were their velo and spin rate numbers? What kind of contact were they giving up? What is their history of going further into a game? What was the game situation? Basically, what was a reasonable prediction for what their performance would've been moving forward, and how would it impact the team's ability to win the game? They pulled Sonny Gray after 5 shutout on June 15th. It was his first start back after his 2nd IL stint in less than 2 months. Did you factor that into things? The other time they pulled Sonny after 5 shutout he was at 96 pitches. So they didn't do what you're complaining about with that good pitcher. Best argument for it with Ryan was July 13 or 23 when they pulled him in the middle of the 6th at 78 and 86 pitches. He'd given up 1 run in both those games. In the game on the 13th he was pulled for a lefty lefty matchup (Thielbar vs Telez) in a 1-1 tie (Twins won the game 4-1 on a 3 run walkoff by Miranda). In the game on the 23rd he was pulled after giving up a triple, a single, and deep flyball in a game the Twins were leading 2-0 when the inning started, and 2-1 when he left (Twins won this one, too. Stupid Rocco). So they weren't pulling that good pitcher in crazy situations. They didn't have any other good starters. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer weren't good enough to be trusted to go longer than 5 innings in close games. The rest of their starters (outside Ober who only made a handful of starts) shouldn't have even been in the majors. Not to mention 6 (or around the half dozen you claim) out of 162 games is not a great data set to be calling something a strategy. My point is that if you're going to blanket something as a team strategy you better have more than 3.7% of the games as your sample size, and if you're going to claim it wasn't about the talent of the pitcher they better have been doing it with their good pitchers, which they weren't. Thus my statement of it being about the talent of this starting staff, and not some organizational approach change.

You said "Graterol was more than what they were willing to receive in trade. They'd have settle for less." So you started off with the Dodgers got more than they expected, and would've taken a lesser package than Graterol. I questioned why you believe that because I disagree. You said "The Twins weren't motivated to trade their top pitching prospect Graterol." You're now stating that Graterol was their best pitching prospect, and thus a valuable trade piece. I disagreed because he was a reliever. You said "My suggestion would to offer an equal value trade that'd include a different SP + power bat prospects or 2 different SP prospects, instead of Graterol. Which would be more benefical to the Twins & LAD might agree upon (because of their situation)." At this point you seem to be saying that you have switched from "the Twins gave up more than the Dodgers were expecting" to "well they could've sent a different combination of players that were the same value." I guess that's where the confusion comes from. Your original statment was that they'd have "settled for less." I applied that thought to your subsequent statements and understood you to be saying that a combination of a different SP+power bat or 2 different SP prospects would've been a lesser value than Graterol since your initial premise was the Twins gave up more than they needed to. I'm sure there were other players in the Twins org that the Dodgers would've also accepted. I disagree that Graterol was their best pitching prospect (because he was a reliever), and that he was worth more than either of your proposed combinations. Him being a reliever means he's automatically worth less than any individual player in either of those packages, unless you're talking about non-prospects that the Dodgers wouldn't have been interested in anyways. A SP prospect and a power bat prospect are both worth more individually than a reliever prospect. We seem to disagree on what Graterol was, and thus what all of the pieces included really value at. But debating these things is why we're here. I appreciate the back and forth. But we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Yeah, that's not less value than Graterol. We can just agree to disagree here. Graterol was a reliever by the time he got traded. That is not an overly valuable piece no matter where he may have shown up on prospect rankings that rank him as a starter still. Giving up multiple starter prospects instead of a reliever prospect is giving up more value, not less. It was publicly known that Graterol was a reliever at that point and his value wasn't that high. In 28 total appearances in 2019 he made 11 starts, and all 10 of his major league appearances were out of the pen. He'd already started his shift to the pen and Boston put it out publicly that his arm had concerns, and he couldn't be more than a reliever. That is not a highly valuable piece. But to each their own.

K/9 for the league is almost exactly the same as last year through the 16/17/18 game/team timeframe. Not sure that should make you feel any better about things, but the Ks haven't gone up. Basically 8.75 this year after having been 8.74 last year at this time. I'd actually expect K/9 to go down as the year goes on as pitchers wear down more since they can't spend 30 seconds walking around the mound getting as recovered as possible before throwing another max effort pitch. But it'll be interesting to watch how all these rules change the game as teams adapt and adjust.

Them "shopping him" and him having requested a trade doesn't mean they're just going to give him away. Everyone knew Graterol was a reliever by then. His value wasn't all that high. Especially after the Red Sox refused him because they realized he was a reliever with possible arm problems. A reliever is never worth more than a starter. Especially when it's a rookie reliever (with possible arm problems) vs an established starter. It's pretty massive assumption that they'd have taken less. And Kenta wasn't being used "primarily as a RP." He was shifted to the pen late the last 3 seasons with the Dodgers, but he made more starts than relief appearances in every one of his seasons there. 32 G with 32 GS (no relief appearances). 29 G with 25 GS (4 relief appearances to 25 starts). 39 G with 20 GS (this one was close with only 1 more start). 37 G with 26 starts (back to more than twice as many starts). Overall he made 103 starts and 34 relief appearances for the Dodgers. That is not how I'd define being used "primarily as a RP."

Oh, me neither. But he serves the purpose of the long man role they're looking for.

I don't think this is a "Sands had his chance" situation. The Twins wanted to push Maeda's start back. Sands had just thrown multiple innings and wasn't going to get that spot start so they needed to call someone else up. Sands was the obvious choice to be sent down. After he was sent down for Varland to make that start he isn't allowed to be called back up for 10 days. It hasn't been 10 days so Sands wasn't an option to come back and fill the long relief role again. I'm not predicting it, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see Headrick sent back down after pitching 0 innings for the Twins and Sands come back and take his spot after the 10 days.

They also had Gray, Ryan, and Paddack going 6 and 7 innings last April. So maybe they haven't adjusted approach, but just have better pitchers.