Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

chpettit19

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,094

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    167

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    FYI, adding those extra picks would get the Twins extra bonus pool money. It'd actually be a good thing in terms of signing draft picks as they'd have much more money to spread around. Picks right after the first round carry slot bonuses in the 2.4 million range. Adding 2 or 3 of them would get the Twins an extra 5- 7.5ish million for signings. I'm right with you on the situation with Mahle, Gray, and Gallo. I think extending one of the arms and getting 2 top 35 picks for the other 2 would be the perfect outcome.
  2. chpettit19
    MLB doesn't have the radio broadcasts for free, but for $30 a year you can stream every major league game radio broadcast with no blackout restrictions. That subscription also gets you video streaming of minor league games. I'm not defending MLB cuz they've been awful at promoting the game and making it possible to watch local teams, but they do alright with the radio broadcast streaming. Not to mention iHeart radio is free and you could stream the radio broadcast through that easily.
  3. chpettit19
    No problem! My hope is we see them give out 3 (Mahle, Gray, Gallo) if there's no extensions done. And hopefully at least 2 of those get 50 million or more and the Twins get really nice picks. A Mahle extension, and 2 picks following the 1st round as compensation for Gray and Gallo is the perfect situation for me. Likely means the team did quite well this season, and they're setting themselves up really nicely for the future.
  4. chpettit19
    The pending FAs being worthy of a QO changes the math on deadline trades and raises the price. Could be good or bad for the idea of trading them depending on the view. The equation changes from needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season to needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season plus the value of a late 1st round pick (or 3rd rd pick depending on the size of the deal you think they'd get). It can make it much harder to find a trade partner willing to give up what you'd demand in return at the deadline. All the "math" on this also changes depending on the team's W-L situation as well. But some teams would back away from giving a prospect return equal to the major leaguer's 2nd half value plus a late first round pick so it can limit your pool of trade partner possibilities. But if you can find a willing partner it can also mean you get a really nice return for that type of guy. My hope is the team is in first place because all these guys are performing well and they don't trade any of them and get 2 or 3 comp picks for next year.
  5. chpettit19
    No limitations on the QOs a team can offer. As examples: Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Yankees put QOs on 2 players this last offseason. Mets had 3.
  6. chpettit19
    Gray, Mahle, and Gallo all getting QOs and signing for 50M+ would be fantastic. You can restock the farm big time with that. Even just 1 or 2 of them getting the QO and 50+ would be great. I mean all 3 getting the QO, but getting less than 50M, would still be good by adding 3 extra picks a little later in the draft. I'd predict at least 2 of them get the QO and 50M+ so the Twins will have basically 3 first round picks next year. Hopefully those 2 are Gray and Gallo while Mahle is good and signs an extension to stay here and front the rotation with Lopez (he's starting to grow on me). That'd be the ideal situation.
  7. chpettit19
    Yes! Best player available. Especially this high in the draft. I actually think it's the route you should go for the first 5 rounds, but it gets a little more difficult with signing bonuses and all that as the draft progresses. But first round pick, especially a top 5 pick, has always got to be best player available. I don't care if they have 5 Byron Buxtons (talent, not health-wise) lined up at CF in the system. If the best player is another Byron Buxton you draft them. Just collect as much talent as you can and figure it out from there.
  8. chpettit19
    I'm probably the biggest Lewis supporter on these boards, and a huge advocate for the Twins doing some of these early extensions to buy out some FA years for well below what market value will be by then, but not even I would give Lewis an extension after back to back ACL surgeries. If he comes back and plays the 2nd half like the star I think he'll be then I'd certainly look to give him a Carroll-type extension next spring, but not before that. If Lee destroys AA and debuts this season I'd definitely try to lock him into a Harris type extension.
  9. chpettit19
    Yeah, that was the whole "lefty masher, part-time player" part of my comment. I never advocated for him being a full-time player or anything. He's got a very specific role on this roster. Just wanted to give an above average MLB player his due. He's been far better than the "career OPS+ of 92" hitter you were painting him as since his return to MLB in 2019. I don't want him as the full-time 1B for more than a week at any point in the season. But I do want to give the man credit for the hitter he's turned himself into since 2019 by providing a little context to his career stats.
  10. chpettit19
    To be fair to Solano, he has a 109 wRC+ since 2019. That's tied for 110th in baseball over that timespan. I agree his position on this team is as a lefty masher, part-time player. But he's been a really good hitter once he figured it out later in his career.
  11. chpettit19
    He's well overdue for a full season. But that doesn't mean he's likely to get it. You think they're just going to jump a guy who's cracked 100 IP once from 75ish innings to 150ish innings in 1 season? That doesn't sound like something many teams would do. Especially if that player is part of the "long-term" plans. Maeda has an injury history? What's that? He's never been on the IL for more than 15 days in a row before his TJ surgery in his 14th professional season. Maeda has almost no injury history. Certainly no worse than the typical major league pitcher. What do the long-term plans have to do with the 2023 season? Your statement was about a team that was "serious about contending for the Central" in 2023, wasn't it? The long-term plans shouldn't have anything to do with competing for the division title in 2023. You're kind of trying to have it both ways here. If it's about the long-term plans then Ober shouldn't be expected to top 110-120 innings this year so as to mitigate his injury risk for the long-term. But if it's about contending for the division in a serious way in 2023 then you don't want a guy who you won't let throw more than 110-120 innings as a rotation staple because you're either having him go for short starts, and putting more pressure on your pen (didn't work well last year), or you're skipping his starts throughout the year and bouncing someone into and out of the rotation randomly. Neither of those situations is ideal for contending in 2023. Maybe that isn't how it should work, but it is. It's the nature of the CBA where certain players are allowed to be sent to the minors and brought back while others aren't. It's also the nature of incentive laden contracts. They're a tool the Twins will want to use again moving forward. If you take a guy who's got nearly $10 million tied into starting vs relieving and you put him in the pen with no shot to reach any of his incentives you're making it way harder to offer deals with incentives in them to future players. Whether it's how it should be or not, this is how major league baseball works. Ober would/will still get plenty of opportunities to start.
  12. chpettit19
    If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him. Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman. That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.
  13. chpettit19
    I think this is the most likely option as well. The interesting twist to it that I'm curious about is Solano starting at 2B for Polanco if Buxton is DHing against a lefty. Polanco is by no means brutal against lefties, but he's significantly worse against them than righties. And Solano is better against lefties than Polanco is. Wonder if we'll see Polanco sitting more this year than he has in the past, especially early, by using Solano as a platoon for him.
  14. chpettit19
    FYI, Larnach was playing games at the start of spring before he got hurt and took a week off. He doesn't fit in the same category as Polanco, Kirilloff, and Buxton.
  15. chpettit19
    It's the same with position players. I want to see the young guys, too. I'm excited to see what they can be. But we just watched a season get absolutely nuked because they didn't have anyone in AAA who had any real shot at stepping up and filling in for injuries on the major league roster. Extra depth is good, and needed!
  16. chpettit19
    I don't know if you read the article about him and Popkins on The Athletic, but it was fascinating. Sounds like he spent most of last year fixing swing changes he'd made over the offseason. I'm hoping him not having to do that leads to his best season yet. Come into the season already feeling good in the box and hit the ground running. Very excited to see what he can do with the stick this year. His defense will be interesting to watch. Not being able to play as deep as he'd like will effect him, but how much? He's never been fast, but has been successful defensively because of his positioning, size, and arm. He can't take advantage of all that as well anymore so it'll be interesting to see how he looks now. Depending on how Lee and Lewis look we could maybe see the Correa to third shift happen sooner than expected. Not sure how open to that he'd be, but will be interesting to see how the rules effect him.
  17. chpettit19
    Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda.
  18. chpettit19
    Bailey Ober has cracked 100 innings 1 time in his professional career. Limited basis? He threw 56 innings for the Twins last year. Yeah, I'd say that's pretty limited. Devin Smeltzer threw 70.1 innings with an ERA of 3.71 for the Twins last year to put Ober's 56 innings in a little bit of perspective. I'm so confused by this idea that Ober is some workhorse while Maeda is some fragile flower who couldn't possibly throw 5+ innings a start. They're literally throwing the same amount right now. Since 2017 (when Bailey started his pro career) Maeda has thrown 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2 (2020), and 106.1 innings in the majors. Ober has thrown 84, 75, 78.2, 0 (2020), 108.1, and 72.2 innings. That's 586.1 innings for Maeda and 418.2 innings for Ober. There is no reason to think Bailey Ober is going to throw even 100 innings this year. None whatsoever. I like Ober. He's too good for AAA, and deserves an MLB job. But he's the most injury prone pitcher on the staff by a mile. Pretending he's less of an injury risk than Maeda is simply ignoring the entirety of his career. I hope he comes out and throws 120+ innings this year. It'd be awful team building for the Twins to expect him to. They can't rely on more than 75 innings from Ober this year. Starters come back from TJ every year and throw 120+ innings. Verlander threw 175 last year at the age of 39 after not having pitched since 2020. If Maeda can do 2/3s of that he'll already be at Ober's career high in innings pitched.
  19. chpettit19
    Why do you think "Maeda is a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings," but Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation? Ober has thrown 6 innings in 3 spring training games. 2 innings an appearance. Maeda has thrown 5.2 innings in 3 spring training games. Basically 2 innings an appearance. Why is 1 set for the 5-man rotation, but the other is "a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings?"
  20. chpettit19
    It's fascinating to me that people want to move Maeda because they don't trust him being able to throw a bunch of innings, but want to replace him with Ober who's cracked 100 innings in a season 1 time in his professional career. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Maeda getting more innings this year than Ober. And they're not sending Maeda to the pen to start the year unless they restructure that contract. It's simply not an option, and they'd never do it. Every agent they ever approach with an incentive laden deal in the future would point to them putting Maeda in the pen and say "there's no chance my guy signs a deal with incentives in it." I agree Ober is too good to be wasted in AAA, but he's also got to be handled in a way that makes it hard to put him on the ML roster if he's not in the rotation, and they don't want to run with a 6 man rotation. I do like the idea outlined above of having him wait until a couple weeks into April to arrive and join a 6 man rotation. That's an interesting plan I think could work well. Piggy backing could also work, and being able to get 8 or 9 innings out of Maeda and Ober every 5th day would be great. A long relief role for Ober would have to be very structured. With his injury concerns you can't have him sitting around waiting for random appearances. It's either piggyback him or send him to AAA in my mind.
  21. chpettit19
    I also came to point out the WBC factor. Trout, Goldy, Altuve, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Devers, Ohtani, Pederson, Betts, Alonso, Soto, Rodriguez, Gimenez, McNeil, Bogaerts, and Schwarber were all getting ready for the WBC and ahead of schedule . That's 17 guys from the list. Plus 3 guys injured or retired. Lowe is not some established star. Neither is Contreras, and he's with a new team this year so, as a catcher, probably needs more game work to work with his staff. Harris is a 2nd year player. The rest of the guys have played 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 4 games. Being extremely generous we'll call it 3 PAs per game for them all (their first games likely only got 2, but we'll call it 3). And you're talking a max of 27 PAs. At least half of which probably came against minor leaguers. That's what we're concerned about? Buxton gets that in an hour on the back fields.
  22. chpettit19
    Man, I'd hate to see what your thoughts are on the Rays, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Brewers bullpen usage. Those 11 teams have all used their relievers more since Rocco took over than Rocco has. As for the topic of developmental success stories, these are some nice success stories, but they need to start producing more high level guys. They could have many more names on a list like this if their young guys could stay healthy. They've actually been above average at turning drafted players into major leaguers, but their next step is to start kicking out some stars. Producing major league talent regularly is an absolute must, but to really contend for championships some of those players need to be stars. They haven't figured that out yet. Keep doing what they're doing, but get some Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda types to become stars. That's what's needed next.
  23. chpettit19
    FYI, MLB announced they won't be suspending Clevinger. MLB’s statement: “The comprehensive investigation included interviews of more than 15 individuals, in addition to Mr. Clevinger and the complainant, as well as a review of available documents, such as thousands of electronic communication records. The Office of the Commissioner has closed this investigation and, barring the receipt of any new information or evidence, the Office of the Commissioner will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations. As part of his path forward, Mr. Clevinger has voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the joint treatment boards under the collectively bargained policies, and to comply with any of the boards’ recommendations. MLB will continue to make support services available to Mr. Clevinger, his family, and other individuals involved in the investigation.”
  24. chpettit19
    As of today I'd predict a QO for Mahle and Gray. Twins willing to pay the $20 mil for 1 year if they accept, or take their draft pick in return if they move on. Would expect them to touch base with Maeda on an extension if he comes back and performs to his career norms. Probably looking at a 1 year + option type deal they'd want with him.
  25. chpettit19
    It's not Lee's age that matters, it's that he was drafted 8 months ago and has played 31 professional games, only 4 of which were above A ball. There's a very real chance he shows he has the talent to play in the majors this year, but it's not likely to be super early in the year, and he's got other prospects to jump to do it. Whether we like it or not, service time will also be a factor. Just looking at his age is missing a lot of context. He can be the prospect everyone thinks/hopes he is and still not be a likely callup within a calendar year of being drafted. They're not just pushing a healthy, and performing, Correa, Miranda, Polanco, or Kirilloff aside for Lee. They're not going to call him up to play the short side of a platoon, utility IFer role of Solano or Farmer. And they're not likely to jump him over Julien if he's performing in AAA. They're not going to jump him over Lewis once he's back (which should be less than a calendar year after Lee was drafted). So it's likely that they need a serious injury to, or seriously bad play from, multiple of Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, and Lewis to get Lee real playing time. They're not calling him up, and starting his clock, for anything less than real playing time. He won't be coming up as a backup. If enough of the Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis group are injured or not playing well that it allows for Lee to come up for real playing time it's very likely things are going very poorly for the Twins offense.
×
×
  • Create New...