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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    To be fair to Solano, he has a 109 wRC+ since 2019. That's tied for 110th in baseball over that timespan. I agree his position on this team is as a lefty masher, part-time player. But he's been a really good hitter once he figured it out later in his career.
  2. chpettit19
    He's well overdue for a full season. But that doesn't mean he's likely to get it. You think they're just going to jump a guy who's cracked 100 IP once from 75ish innings to 150ish innings in 1 season? That doesn't sound like something many teams would do. Especially if that player is part of the "long-term" plans. Maeda has an injury history? What's that? He's never been on the IL for more than 15 days in a row before his TJ surgery in his 14th professional season. Maeda has almost no injury history. Certainly no worse than the typical major league pitcher. What do the long-term plans have to do with the 2023 season? Your statement was about a team that was "serious about contending for the Central" in 2023, wasn't it? The long-term plans shouldn't have anything to do with competing for the division title in 2023. You're kind of trying to have it both ways here. If it's about the long-term plans then Ober shouldn't be expected to top 110-120 innings this year so as to mitigate his injury risk for the long-term. But if it's about contending for the division in a serious way in 2023 then you don't want a guy who you won't let throw more than 110-120 innings as a rotation staple because you're either having him go for short starts, and putting more pressure on your pen (didn't work well last year), or you're skipping his starts throughout the year and bouncing someone into and out of the rotation randomly. Neither of those situations is ideal for contending in 2023. Maybe that isn't how it should work, but it is. It's the nature of the CBA where certain players are allowed to be sent to the minors and brought back while others aren't. It's also the nature of incentive laden contracts. They're a tool the Twins will want to use again moving forward. If you take a guy who's got nearly $10 million tied into starting vs relieving and you put him in the pen with no shot to reach any of his incentives you're making it way harder to offer deals with incentives in them to future players. Whether it's how it should be or not, this is how major league baseball works. Ober would/will still get plenty of opportunities to start.
  3. chpettit19
    If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him. Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman. That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.
  4. chpettit19
    I think this is the most likely option as well. The interesting twist to it that I'm curious about is Solano starting at 2B for Polanco if Buxton is DHing against a lefty. Polanco is by no means brutal against lefties, but he's significantly worse against them than righties. And Solano is better against lefties than Polanco is. Wonder if we'll see Polanco sitting more this year than he has in the past, especially early, by using Solano as a platoon for him.
  5. chpettit19
    FYI, Larnach was playing games at the start of spring before he got hurt and took a week off. He doesn't fit in the same category as Polanco, Kirilloff, and Buxton.
  6. chpettit19
    It's the same with position players. I want to see the young guys, too. I'm excited to see what they can be. But we just watched a season get absolutely nuked because they didn't have anyone in AAA who had any real shot at stepping up and filling in for injuries on the major league roster. Extra depth is good, and needed!
  7. chpettit19
    I don't know if you read the article about him and Popkins on The Athletic, but it was fascinating. Sounds like he spent most of last year fixing swing changes he'd made over the offseason. I'm hoping him not having to do that leads to his best season yet. Come into the season already feeling good in the box and hit the ground running. Very excited to see what he can do with the stick this year. His defense will be interesting to watch. Not being able to play as deep as he'd like will effect him, but how much? He's never been fast, but has been successful defensively because of his positioning, size, and arm. He can't take advantage of all that as well anymore so it'll be interesting to see how he looks now. Depending on how Lee and Lewis look we could maybe see the Correa to third shift happen sooner than expected. Not sure how open to that he'd be, but will be interesting to see how the rules effect him.
  8. chpettit19
    Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda.
  9. chpettit19
    Bailey Ober has cracked 100 innings 1 time in his professional career. Limited basis? He threw 56 innings for the Twins last year. Yeah, I'd say that's pretty limited. Devin Smeltzer threw 70.1 innings with an ERA of 3.71 for the Twins last year to put Ober's 56 innings in a little bit of perspective. I'm so confused by this idea that Ober is some workhorse while Maeda is some fragile flower who couldn't possibly throw 5+ innings a start. They're literally throwing the same amount right now. Since 2017 (when Bailey started his pro career) Maeda has thrown 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2 (2020), and 106.1 innings in the majors. Ober has thrown 84, 75, 78.2, 0 (2020), 108.1, and 72.2 innings. That's 586.1 innings for Maeda and 418.2 innings for Ober. There is no reason to think Bailey Ober is going to throw even 100 innings this year. None whatsoever. I like Ober. He's too good for AAA, and deserves an MLB job. But he's the most injury prone pitcher on the staff by a mile. Pretending he's less of an injury risk than Maeda is simply ignoring the entirety of his career. I hope he comes out and throws 120+ innings this year. It'd be awful team building for the Twins to expect him to. They can't rely on more than 75 innings from Ober this year. Starters come back from TJ every year and throw 120+ innings. Verlander threw 175 last year at the age of 39 after not having pitched since 2020. If Maeda can do 2/3s of that he'll already be at Ober's career high in innings pitched.
  10. chpettit19
    Why do you think "Maeda is a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings," but Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation? Ober has thrown 6 innings in 3 spring training games. 2 innings an appearance. Maeda has thrown 5.2 innings in 3 spring training games. Basically 2 innings an appearance. Why is 1 set for the 5-man rotation, but the other is "a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings?"
  11. chpettit19
    It's fascinating to me that people want to move Maeda because they don't trust him being able to throw a bunch of innings, but want to replace him with Ober who's cracked 100 innings in a season 1 time in his professional career. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Maeda getting more innings this year than Ober. And they're not sending Maeda to the pen to start the year unless they restructure that contract. It's simply not an option, and they'd never do it. Every agent they ever approach with an incentive laden deal in the future would point to them putting Maeda in the pen and say "there's no chance my guy signs a deal with incentives in it." I agree Ober is too good to be wasted in AAA, but he's also got to be handled in a way that makes it hard to put him on the ML roster if he's not in the rotation, and they don't want to run with a 6 man rotation. I do like the idea outlined above of having him wait until a couple weeks into April to arrive and join a 6 man rotation. That's an interesting plan I think could work well. Piggy backing could also work, and being able to get 8 or 9 innings out of Maeda and Ober every 5th day would be great. A long relief role for Ober would have to be very structured. With his injury concerns you can't have him sitting around waiting for random appearances. It's either piggyback him or send him to AAA in my mind.
  12. chpettit19
    I also came to point out the WBC factor. Trout, Goldy, Altuve, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Devers, Ohtani, Pederson, Betts, Alonso, Soto, Rodriguez, Gimenez, McNeil, Bogaerts, and Schwarber were all getting ready for the WBC and ahead of schedule . That's 17 guys from the list. Plus 3 guys injured or retired. Lowe is not some established star. Neither is Contreras, and he's with a new team this year so, as a catcher, probably needs more game work to work with his staff. Harris is a 2nd year player. The rest of the guys have played 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 4 games. Being extremely generous we'll call it 3 PAs per game for them all (their first games likely only got 2, but we'll call it 3). And you're talking a max of 27 PAs. At least half of which probably came against minor leaguers. That's what we're concerned about? Buxton gets that in an hour on the back fields.
  13. chpettit19
    Man, I'd hate to see what your thoughts are on the Rays, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Brewers bullpen usage. Those 11 teams have all used their relievers more since Rocco took over than Rocco has. As for the topic of developmental success stories, these are some nice success stories, but they need to start producing more high level guys. They could have many more names on a list like this if their young guys could stay healthy. They've actually been above average at turning drafted players into major leaguers, but their next step is to start kicking out some stars. Producing major league talent regularly is an absolute must, but to really contend for championships some of those players need to be stars. They haven't figured that out yet. Keep doing what they're doing, but get some Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda types to become stars. That's what's needed next.
  14. chpettit19
    FYI, MLB announced they won't be suspending Clevinger. MLB’s statement: “The comprehensive investigation included interviews of more than 15 individuals, in addition to Mr. Clevinger and the complainant, as well as a review of available documents, such as thousands of electronic communication records. The Office of the Commissioner has closed this investigation and, barring the receipt of any new information or evidence, the Office of the Commissioner will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations. As part of his path forward, Mr. Clevinger has voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the joint treatment boards under the collectively bargained policies, and to comply with any of the boards’ recommendations. MLB will continue to make support services available to Mr. Clevinger, his family, and other individuals involved in the investigation.”
  15. chpettit19
    As of today I'd predict a QO for Mahle and Gray. Twins willing to pay the $20 mil for 1 year if they accept, or take their draft pick in return if they move on. Would expect them to touch base with Maeda on an extension if he comes back and performs to his career norms. Probably looking at a 1 year + option type deal they'd want with him.
  16. chpettit19
    It's not Lee's age that matters, it's that he was drafted 8 months ago and has played 31 professional games, only 4 of which were above A ball. There's a very real chance he shows he has the talent to play in the majors this year, but it's not likely to be super early in the year, and he's got other prospects to jump to do it. Whether we like it or not, service time will also be a factor. Just looking at his age is missing a lot of context. He can be the prospect everyone thinks/hopes he is and still not be a likely callup within a calendar year of being drafted. They're not just pushing a healthy, and performing, Correa, Miranda, Polanco, or Kirilloff aside for Lee. They're not going to call him up to play the short side of a platoon, utility IFer role of Solano or Farmer. And they're not likely to jump him over Julien if he's performing in AAA. They're not going to jump him over Lewis once he's back (which should be less than a calendar year after Lee was drafted). So it's likely that they need a serious injury to, or seriously bad play from, multiple of Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, and Lewis to get Lee real playing time. They're not calling him up, and starting his clock, for anything less than real playing time. He won't be coming up as a backup. If enough of the Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis group are injured or not playing well that it allows for Lee to come up for real playing time it's very likely things are going very poorly for the Twins offense.
  17. chpettit19
    I get that, but those outcomes aren't realistic. Which I think goes to the point @Mike Sixel is trying to make. If the major league team is doing well, veterans are performing, and the team is staying relatively healthy, there's not an easy to see, realistic way for multiple guys to come up and take jobs. And I'm not saying you were predicting those outcomes, but just saying they're very, very, very unlikely to happen. The most likely situation of a winning Twins team having veterans replaced is by replacing someone like Solano first. And I'd bet that the team's hope is that he's replaced by Lewis or Julien by July. But I think they'll be rather slow to replace most of the guys on the 26 man because they can't afford to have another season cratered by lack of depth. I think a segment of the fan base is too excited for the young guys and are expecting the Twins to give jobs to them quicker than the team realistically will. They aren't going to trade, or DFA, multiple veterans on a successful team. Maybe they'd trade Polanco for a haul, but they aren't trading Polanco, Gallo, and Kepler. I don't think they plan to move Farmer or Taylor at all. Injuries can change everything, but, barring that, I don't see a real easy path to more than 2 of these guys really getting a shot at taking jobs this year.
  18. chpettit19
    It will be interesting to see how they manage Martin and this potential injury problem. It's a very different situation than a pitcher having UCL problems. It's entirely possible Martin plays some to start this year with the injury still there and gets TJ later on. Or they could do the surgery now and plan/hope for a late season, and AFL, return. He couldn't play the field in these scenarios, but he could DH. I'm sure they're having a lot of conversations with him and trying to find a way to get something out of this season without sacrificing much, if any, of next season. Will be interesting to see what they decide to do.
  19. chpettit19
    If Wallner, Lewis, and Julien come up and OPS+ 125, 130, and 140 the Twins are winning the World Series this year.
  20. chpettit19
    I'd try to lock him up through his age 31 or 32 season if he'd be open to it. Relievers are a weird bunch. If you have an elite one into their early 30s you have to do everything you can to keep them because they're so rare. The rest are interchangeable and I wouldn't invest in at all. I think Duran is an elite one, and will remain elite into his early 30s. His velo can decline in his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons and he'd still be throwing harder than the average MLB pitcher. If I could have him locked in at much cheaper than market rates through the likely entirety of his elite years I'd do it. Diaz just got 20 mil a year from the Mets through his age 34 season (with an opt out and buy out mixed in). I'd try to lock Duran up now for the chance to save myself significant money down the road by buying out his first 2 or 3 years of free agency. Lower spending clubs can't take too many risks with long-term deals, but this is one I'd do. Basically locking in cost certainty on Buxton, Correa, and Duran for the rest of this decade. You can build a really nice roster with those 3 well below market values.
  21. chpettit19
    If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.
  22. chpettit19
    Has Rocco explained what he means by "long reliever?" I think that's a large part of any discussion around who could fill such a role. Does he mean a guy who can come in and finish out a blowout (winning or losing version) by covering 3, 4, or 5 innings? Or does he mean a guy who can come in and throw 2 or 3 innings 3 times in 10 days to give a 1 inning reliever or 2 a day off? That would really change the decision making in my mind. I don't know that I'd want to put anyone with a truly bright future in the first role. I don't want any of my young guys sitting around for 2 weeks not getting game action because the games have all been close. So if the role is that restrictive I'm going with Dobnak or Sands (sorry, just doesn't look like a real prospect to me). To me the "long reliever" they should be looking for is a guy, or 2, who can go 2 or 3 innings 3 times every 10 days to give the 1 inning relievers an extra day off. I expect the arms in this rotation to be able to get through 6 innings more often than not so I'd want 6 one inning relievers, and 2 "long relievers." There will definitely still be times where the starters only go 4 or 5 innings, and the "long relievers" would be who I use to cover an extra inning or 2 before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. If 6 one inning relievers can't cover the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings every day they're in trouble anyways. I'd use my "long relievers" in games the starters rack up high pitch counts early, or just don't have it, and can't get through 6. When I use them in the game would depend on where they are in the lineup when the starter comes out. If they're rolling into the top of the order when the starter comes out I'd use a 1 inning guy to get through them. Then turn to the "long reliever" for 2 innings to get me through the tail end of the lineup before turning it back over to the 1 inning guys. All of this really depends on game situations, etc. But the overall "long reliever" question is more about what that role even looks like. I don't think a guy sitting around waiting for an injury to a starter, or a blowout early, is a good use of a roster spot. To me, "long reliever" is someone I use regularly to give a little extra rest to my big time 1 inning guys. So my search for a "long reliever" would be a combination of finding a 1 inning guy who can go 2 innings or a starter who I want to move to the bullpen. But I don't know what Rocco means when he talks about a long reliever.
  23. chpettit19
    There's multiple reports from many of the beat writers that Kirilloff has been taking live BP for at least a week.
  24. chpettit19
    I love the WBC! Stayed up way too late last night watching the first game, and got up too early this morning to watch that butt kicking. I want to see the best players in the world play against each other. It's a fantastic watch for me. Really excited to see what Julien can do for Canada. Maybe he can pick up a little nugget of hitting knowledge from Freddie Freeman during his time with him in that clubhouse. Pablo, Jorge, and Emilio are the arms I care about watching. Is Pablo dominant? Jorge looking more like the Baltimore version from last year or the Twins? Emilio still terrible and I still need to be cranky he's on the roster? Should be a great few weeks of really great baseball!
  25. chpettit19
    Kirilloff is a concern until July for me. If he's still feeling good then I'll start to relax about the wrist. Larnach is a little concerning that he's turning into a Buxton type and just has injuries to various parts of his body constantly bugging him. TJ for Martin would be a real bummer, but if it's done soon it'd be possible/likely that he could return to DH at the end of the season (in the minors) and then go DH in the AFL so it isn't a completely lost year. Otherwise, I'm not concerned about any of these situations. Buxton is Buxton. Henriquez is young and a missed year doesn't kill his career (especially being on the ML 60-day and getting those ML checks all year). Most pitchers get TJ now so it just is what it is, unfortunately. Polanco has hit the IL once in 9 years. Not concerned about him (he's only 29, not 35). Balazovic isn't a baseball related injury. Celestino was pegged for a year in AAA anyways, and won't miss much game time there. Gordon should be back before the season starts. Nothing really to write home about here.
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