chpettit19

The Luis Castillo trade, and extension, are probably the best comps. And Burnes is better, and younger, so he'd actually demand a little more. The Reds got Marte (top 15 global prospect at the time), and Arroyo (2nd round pick in 2021) as major position player prospects. They got Levi Stoudt (top 5 system prospect), and Andrew Moore as pitching prospects. That's 3 top 5 system prospects, 2 of which are top 50 global prospects right now. A pitcher 1 year younger, and nowhere near as good, as Burnes with massive injury concerns (Ober), a 25 year old DH with massive contact and K concerns (Wallner), and a 23 year old utility player prospect with tanking value (Martin) isn't enough to even get the Brewers to call you back. In fact they probably don't even answer your next 15 phone calls if that's your starting offer. Any offer that didn't include Lee or Lewis would get an immediate hang-up. And, honestly, it'd probably take both Lee and Lewis to get anything done. The Twins likely don't have the prospect capital to pull a trade for Burnes unless you're including both Lee and Lewis, or ERod comes out hot and then it's likely 2 of those 3 plus 2 more prospects, 1 of which being top 10 in the system, required. Castillo signed a 5 year, $108 million extension with Seattle after the trade. That's the floor for Burnes. Again, he's younger and better, so he'd likely demand even more than that. Especially knowing he went to arbitration in an attempt to up the amount of money he was getting, and the amount players around the league make. He's going to demand big money, and likely years. If you're talking just a short 2 or 3 year deal the comp is Verlander/Scherzer. And they got $86 million for 2 years (Verlander) and $130 million for 3 years (Scherzer).

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

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Whoa, whoa, whoa! I don't get a prize for being the biggest know it all with the most opinions on things?! @Brock Beauchamp don't you know how the internet works?! 😄

It can be true that the majority of baseball doesn't have a great recent track record with homegrown starters.

That's some solid pop, but man the word "elite" gets thrown around way too willy nilly these days.

Yes, boss.

Why? The argument was made that he only played 3B. He didn't. I don't know why there's a need to look at it any other way. It's nothing major. But the idea that he played his entire career at 1 position, and was never moved for any reason, is factually wrong.

Correa was going to move to 3B with the Mets, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what the Sano point is. He was a terrible defender everywhere they put him. They were just trying to hide him in places. That's totally fine. Reasonable people are allowed to disagree 🙂

Nobody called him a utility player. That's kind of my point. You said "can you imagine Eddie Mathews playing any place than 3B?" And he did play places other than 3B. An entire season's worth of games at other positions. He's not an example of someone who filled a position "from beginning to end." Because the vast majority of players don't just get drafted at 1 position and stay there their entire career. Unless they're already at, or near, the bottom of the defensive ladder. That's kind of my point here. Players not playing every career game at 1 position doesn't make them "positionless" or "utility players." It makes them baseball players. The Twins aren't trying to make everyone utility players. Players playing a little bit in other places is normal baseball that's been taking place for decades. It's why I think it's a topic that's discussed too much. People seem to think it's a new phenomenon. It isn't. This isn't even directed at you, really, but you made it easier to prove the point with the Mathews example. The title of this article is click-bait, and misleading. I mean it doesn't even really match the narrative of the article. Then the article goes on to try to make it sound like the Twins are bouncing guys all over instead of just developing them at 1 position. It fails to explain that this is what the vast majority of players go through. The Twins aren't trying to create positionless, or utility, players. They're developing players the same way every other team does.

Do you think the Cards should move Jordan Walker to RF? He's a better prospect than anything in the Twins system and the Cards are moving him from 3B to RF. Gunnar Henderson is maybe the best prospect in baseball and the Orioles moved him from SS to 3B when he got to the bigs. And now may move him back to SS. Corbin Carroll could also make an argument that he's the best prospect in baseball, and could win GGs in CF, but he moved to LF when he got promoted. Manny Machado came up as a SS. Trea Turner came up as a SS, moved to CF, moved to 2B, then moved back to SS. Fernando Tatis Jr came up as a SS and is now moving to RF. Juan Soto has bounced back and forth between LF and RF. Kyle Schwarber came up as a C. That's all just off the top of my head. This is just how promotions and roster construction works. Lewis and Lee may have had shots at being big league SSs, but now the Twins have a platinum glove winner there. Same reason Walker is moving to RF. That Arenado guy in St Louis is pretty good at 3B. I think the moving around of players is too big of a discussion point in general. It's incredibly normal. And fielding a grounder at 3B isn't that much different than fielding them at SS or 2B or 1B. There's nuances to playing positions, but if you can play SS, you can play 3B. The general idea is you keep guys as high on the defensive ladder as possible, for as long as possible. It's why Martin has been getting reps at SS when almost nobody expects him to stay there. Give him a chance to show what he can do at the top of the ladder because even if he has to slide down a few spots in the bigs he'll have been working on the skills it takes to play those other spots well. It's easier to move from the IF to the OF since being truly good at fielding grounders takes more skill than getting to and catching fly balls. Some guys simply can't judge fly balls well enough, but most elite athletes can. So teams keep guys on the dirt as long as they can (like Walker for the Cardinals) before moving them if they're blocked in the majors. Lee will continue to get time at SS because it's the highest spot he has a chance to play on the ladder. Once his bat is ready the Twins will move him to 3B or 2B if that's what's needed based on the roster. Teams aren't trying to create utility players, they're trying to keep guys as high on the ladder as they can for as long as they can. Or they're trying to find a spot that the guy could succeed (Julien being the example there). They move the guy around some early in their careers to see what they look like in different spots, and give them an idea of the highest spot on the ladder they could succeed. Then they give them time to work at 1 position (Julien at 2B last year). Then they reassess and make adjustments. It's not all about how their bodies develop. And it's not done on a whim. The guys making these decisions are incredibly good at scouting players and seeing things that give them hope, or doubts, about a player's ability to stick at certain positions.

Eddie Mathews played 52 games in LF, and 112 games at 1B in the majors, FYI.

Have to love that Martin flow! I don't love him on the dirt, though. Go let him roam free in the pastures!

I'm a little confused by the idea of using Polanco as a DH simply because he's a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter doesn't mean he hits lefties and righties equally well. He's got a career OPS of .720 vs lefties, but an OPS of .806 vs righties. Last year he was .832 against righties and .602 vs lefties. He may be a switch hitter, but he's far better against righties. He's got real splits just like some non-switch hitters. It's why I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa at the top of the order. Get him between 2 righties so he faces all the righty bullpen arms.

I didn't love the pick because of his lack of any tools outside his hit and power, but his hit and power had the chance to be elite. I can see the thought process in grabbing him at the end of the first and hoping he turns into a Nelson Cruz type. To this point it's really hard to see him ever making the majors. He absolutely destroyed college baseball. He had some swing and miss to his game then, but I don't think any of us would've predicted the insane K rates we saw from him in the low minors. It wasn't a great pick, but I think we're being a literal harsh due to some 20/20 hindsight. This is the risk you take when you go after a bat only player. You have the upside of Nelson Cruz, but the downside of them never succeeding in the high minors even. I still hope something clicks for him, but it's not looking likely at this point.

It's "Top Prospect" season, and the hope train has picked up a lot of steam around these parts. Lewis and Lee (as far as infielders go) are the only 2 with high probability of being as good as Polanco. The rest have outside chances because you just never know, but none of them are projected to be the overall player a healthy Polanco is. And he's not 35, he's 29. I hope he isn't breaking down already, but that would certainly change the narrative. I think many people are way too eager to move on from solid vets, or well above average ones like Polanco, for unproven rookies/prospects/oft-injured "youngsters" these days because it's the climax of the "season of hope" that is the offseason and prospect lists are coming out right and left.

This looks like the perfect situation for the Twins. They have a wave of prospects pushing for their chances, but have a major league roster full of proven MLB talent (not a bunch of stars, but a bunch of guys who've been really solid). I know we're all excited about the prospects, but the hard truth is that a number of them will fail. Arraez had no spot going into 2019, but by the end of the year he'd taken Schoop's job, and Schoop was gone the next year. Miranda had no spot going into 2022 (and none of these prospects have had a season like Miranda had in 2021), but by the end of the year he'd taken Urshela's job, and Urshela is gone now. This is how it's supposed to work. Preferably the Miranda/Urshela situation so you can trade the vet for a low level prospect to add to the next wave. We all want Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, et al to produce. We want them to take the jobs of vets who aren't performing up to the needed level of production. And some will. If Polanco has his typical odd year production I'd much rather have him than bank on any of the prospects early. But if we've actually seen the start of the decline then it's great to have some guys with real shots to take his place. If Polanco has his typical odd year production, and prospects start to show their worth in their various opportunities, then Polanco is a great trade chip next offseason (or at the deadline if a couple prospects have really taken jobs by then) for an upgrade somewhere on the roster. I was leaning towards the FO being replaced, but I think this has been their best work yet, and, for the first time, they look like they may actually have set this team up for continued success.

I watched him in the AFL some, and he didn't look anywhere near MLB average at 2B. That doesn't mean he can't get there, but he's got a long ways to go. His defense is a real question mark.

FYI, Julien only played 2B (and DH) last year.

ERod is a reasonable enough choice. Ideally he debuts in the bigs in 2024, but he may not get enough ABs to graduate, due to there being a number of other high end OFers we're hoping claim starting jobs with the Twins this year and moving forward, so could still be rookie eligible going into 2025. If he's still eligible, hopefully he's #1 here. I think #2 is likely to be the #5 pick this year. Raya and Prielipp seem like good choices to be on the cusp of MLB debuts going into 2025 so hopefully they're at the top here, too. I'd like to see Salas debut in 2024 like ERod. He's already spent time in A+ and the expectation should be that he reaches AA this year. Once you're in AA, as a top prospect, you're on the doorstep and he should have a shot at debuting in 2024 if he's the top prospect we hope he is. Mercedes seems like a nice option for the top 5 as well. The guy who's hat I'll throw in as a hopeful option is Noah Miller. He's got the glove, and I'm hoping to see him continue to increase his strength and be able to handle the bat well the next 2 years. It'd be great to have him touching the top 5 system prospect range and be in AA or AAA going into 2025.

I think Wes knowing what this particular FO looks for in pitchers means he can give them more specific information than the average team. Every team will ask the same character, work ethic, coachability, etc. questions (and have their scouts watching for clues on those questions as well), but Wes knows the specifics of what the Twins look for in pitchers so Wes can more easily thumbs up or thumbs down whether or not he really fits their philosophies. It's likely not a huge thing, but I think the Wes connection at least helps ensure they're 100% speaking the same language and he's answering the questions more specifically I'd think.

Just looks like extra injury insurance to me. Most likely for Kirilloff. And having Polanco sit against lefties wouldn't be terrible either. An IF of Farmer, Correa, Solano, and Miranda would be a lefty killer. I'm all for more depth. I have as high a hopes as anyone for the young guys, but relying on them from the jump is a risky proposition. Especially when very few of them have proven they can stay healthy. To me, this is Kirilloff depth. Gallo is Larnach depth. Taylor is Celestino depth. Do people not remember the lineups the Twins were throwing out there at different points last year? I mean Celestino, Garlick, Palacios, Cave, Beckham and Contreras were starting games last year. More depth and competition is good. There's plenty of plate appearances to go around, and the young guys will get their shots. Miranda has shown he can stay healthy, and is being handed a job. I think if we'd seen Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff stay healthy they'd have been handed jobs as well. I'm excited to see what Martin, Lee, Julien, and Wallner can do, too, but handing those guys opening day jobs isn't what a competing Twins team should do. They will all get chances to prove their worth as injury/performance based fill ins. I think the hope train has taken over too much. The future looks bright, but some of these prospects will fail. Bringing in vets to ease that transition and not put it all on young guys hitting the ground running is smart, in my opinion. Especially a move like this that I'm guessing is for very minimal money and he's easily moved on from if/when one of the young guys overtakes him. I wasn't expecting this move, and don't think it was of utmost need, but I like it just fine. Nobody can say the FO didn't learn their lesson about depth, though.

Just looks like a depth move to me. A little extra spring training insurance for any injuries. Extra Kirilloff insurance mostly. Would be shocked to see him make the opening day roster if Kirilloff is good to go opening day, and there aren't any spring injuries to IFers.

If the Twins could get him to sign that deal they should do it immediately. If Royce is offered that deal he should turn it down immediately.