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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Fangraph's grades on him in 2019 were 45 current/60 future. Proved to be too low on both. He wasn't really a top 30 system prospect for many people so not a ton of public scouting reports (at least not on the sites I subscribe to).
  2. chpettit19
    FYI, those MLB.com grades are not their current grades, they're their future grades. That's where my confusion came from. Acuna and De Andrade are current 25-30s. Maybe a 35 if a scout is feeling generous that day.
  3. chpettit19
    @Cody Christie Can you explain where you're getting these grades from and what you're trying to show with the current grades? I'm really struggling to understand how Bryan Acuna and Danny De Andrade have a current hit grade of 55. I'm quite positive neither of those guys could hit .270+ in the majors today (a general cutoff for what a 55 grade hit tool would mean). What is their current grade supposed to be showing?
  4. chpettit19
    Yeah, you're missing a lot of context. Lopez was at the WBC so his inning total isn't telling at all. In fact, he did really well at the WBC. It's really hard to follow what you're asking for. Not just in this comment, but them all combined. It's about injuries, but you're worried about the performance of Fried allowing him to start the 7th. So is it about injury or number of innings or performance? Sounds like you're asking for a combination of all that, and I just think that's not the right way to look at spring training outings. Spring Training stats are not something that carries a lot of weight with MLB teams. It's better to have good stats than bad stats, but it's not what they're looking at. The Twins pitchers are stretched out. Mahle threw over 70 pitches his last outing. Ryan was at 62 (compared to Fried's 68). So I don't think there's anything to worry about there. Lopez threw 1 major league inning, and 6 more on the AAA field yesterday. I think you may just be trying to read into things more than I'd say should be done at this point. I'll guess Lopez as the first to get into the 7th this season, though. Or maybe Gray. Who's setup to pitch opening day I believe.
  5. chpettit19
    Cleveland is an interesting/hard team to predict this year. Obviously have to expect the top of their rotation, and back of their bullpen, will be elite. They have been for years and there's no reason to expect them not to be. That gives you a very nice floor. The question is what they get out of the back of their rotation, and from their offense. The guys at the back of their rotation aren't great. They're not Bundy and Archer, but they're nothing like Bieber and McKenzie. Quantrill is kind of in the middle ground. They have what I'd describe as much more of a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 type rotation than the 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 type rotation the Twins are trying to build (I said "trying" so don't yell at me about if the Twins guys are really #2s and 3s). The lineup is wildly variable. Ramirez will be an MVP candidate if he's healthy (not predicting he won't be, just putting in the caveat). I think he's a top 5 player in baseball. I think Kwan can maintain close to what he was last year. Their defense should be really good. And Rosario will be good at the top of their lineup as well. But the rest are anything but established. Baseball is all about adjustments. The league has notes on that lineup now and it'll be up to them to adjust to the adjustments and score runs again. Josh Bell is a nice signing, and I think he's probably the key to their season offensively. Last note, if I remember correctly, the Guardians were the healthiest team in baseball last year. Not predicting they won't be again, but it'd be awfully impressive. Decent chance they lose some guys for chunks of the season this year and that just adds to their variableness. I think it's a 3 way battle for the division. The pitching and defense (I think their defense is the answer to the difference in Quantrill's FIP and ERA) will keep Cleveland in almost all of their games. Can their offense do enough again this year? Guessing decent health for all 3 division contenders teams puts them all between 80 and 87 wins. I just hope the Twins are the ones at 87ish.
  6. chpettit19
    Yeah, I'm confused by the idea. You pointed out that Fried started the 7th yesterday because the Braves are "getting ready for the season" while pointing out the Twins are "worried about protecting players." I pointed out that the Twins let Maeda throw more pitches than Fried did yesterday. The Twins are also "getting ready for the season." Yes, they have some players who are being managed a little different (Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff), but overall they're doing the same thing as the other teams with all the rest of their guys. So, sure, the only reason they haven't thrown more innings is because they've been bad. I don't know what you're looking for here. As for letting someone go into the 7th in the regular season. Ryan threw a full 7 innings last April coming off a shortened spring so I'm not too concerned about them being willing to do that if a pitcher is pitching well that day and has a reasonable pitch count.
  7. chpettit19
    I didn't say I don't think of Lewis as having power. I said I don't see him graded with 60 grade FV power. Clearly missed, or forgot about, the Fangraphs grades, but 40/60 is WAY different than 55/60. We'll see what their grades are for him this year. They also have Lee at 30/50 game power which is most certainly not 55/60. I was just curious as to where Cody was getting these grades. There's a reason baseball savant doesn't have his average exit velos on his main percentile card. 35 batted balls is an awfully small sample size. I was calling for Lewis to start last year in the bigs because I think he's a star. I'd put him in RF for the Twins the second he's healthy this season. I love Lee and hope he earns his debut this season. That doesn't mean they're top 5 in the system strictly when it comes to power. I'm just curious where Cody is coming up with these 5 guys all having 55 or better current power grades. I think that's an extreme level of grading. Emmanuel Rodriguez could not step into a major league lineup and hit 20+ homeruns, I'm sorry. I don't think Lee could either. Sobato would be lucky to put 25 balls in play let alone hit 25+ homers. Maybe Lewis could so I'll take back my questioning of his grade. The rest are pretty extreme.
  8. chpettit19
    Fried started the 7th because he needed to get more pitches. He only threw 68 yesterday. Maeda threw 75. So which team let their guy do more yesterday?
  9. chpettit19
    The problem is the same thing can be said about their center fielder. You can't DH both Polanco and Buxton and only play them in the field in the occasional emergency case.
  10. chpettit19
    Because Duran needs to get his work in, too. The live BP stuff is done between all the guys, and is for both the hitter and the pitcher. It wasn't just for Kirilloff's benefit, it was Duran needing to get in his set number of pitches against a hitter and working on things. These are things that have been done in spring training for decades. 1 ball off a leg doesn't make it some crazy thing. This is just how spring training works. For every team.
  11. chpettit19
    I don't know for sure their reasoning, but I can tell you that throwing with a screen in front of you is not comfortable. If you're out there really trying to work on things and make them as close to game like as you can on the back fields the pitcher likely wouldn't want the screen. My guess is they don't use one because they want the pitcher thinking about nothing but executing their pitches in game like fashion. But I can't tell you for sure that's the reason they don't use one.
  12. chpettit19
    87-75, 1st place. And win 2 playoff games!
  13. chpettit19
    Curious where these grades came from. Are they Cody's grades or did he pull them from some scouting sites? I don't remember any scouting reports I've seen on either Lewis or Lee that had them at 60 FV grades for their power, but I don't check all the sites. I think that's a little high for both of them, but would certainly be nice if they develop that kind of power!
  14. chpettit19
    No worries, just wanted to give you the info. Yeah, it definitely would've showed their willingness to spend! Also would've allowed them to keep Arraez since they wouldn't have needed to trade for Lopez. I'd like to see them boost the payroll another 20 mil, but I can't be too hard on them for not giving any 1 player 40+ mil a year. Unless it's Ohtani. They should give him 50 a year and really show they'll spend!
  15. chpettit19
    FYI, Verlander signed a 2 year/$86.6 million deal this offseason.
  16. chpettit19
    Dennis Santana was with the Dodgers before they traded him. Don't think the Dodgers have had World Series aspirations recently? Then he was with the Rangers before they moved him to Atlanta. Don't think the Rangers have WS aspirations after signing Seager, Semien, and deGrom the last 2 offseasons to massive deals? Then the Braves waived him (that's how he ended up in MN). Don't think the Braves have WS aspirations? He's a borderline 40-man guy, but clearly not someone WS teams feel is worthy of a 26-man spot. This stuff happens constantly in MLB. Teams claim a guy and then waive him. Next team claims him and waives him. And so on until every team that was interested has had a shot at him and finally the last team standing gets to put him in the minors and work with him. You're upset they keep Pagan because of stuff over results (for the record I also want Pagan gone), but you want them to keep Santana despite his results? I don't quite follow the logic here.
  17. chpettit19
    FYI, adding those extra picks would get the Twins extra bonus pool money. It'd actually be a good thing in terms of signing draft picks as they'd have much more money to spread around. Picks right after the first round carry slot bonuses in the 2.4 million range. Adding 2 or 3 of them would get the Twins an extra 5- 7.5ish million for signings. I'm right with you on the situation with Mahle, Gray, and Gallo. I think extending one of the arms and getting 2 top 35 picks for the other 2 would be the perfect outcome.
  18. chpettit19
    MLB doesn't have the radio broadcasts for free, but for $30 a year you can stream every major league game radio broadcast with no blackout restrictions. That subscription also gets you video streaming of minor league games. I'm not defending MLB cuz they've been awful at promoting the game and making it possible to watch local teams, but they do alright with the radio broadcast streaming. Not to mention iHeart radio is free and you could stream the radio broadcast through that easily.
  19. chpettit19
    No problem! My hope is we see them give out 3 (Mahle, Gray, Gallo) if there's no extensions done. And hopefully at least 2 of those get 50 million or more and the Twins get really nice picks. A Mahle extension, and 2 picks following the 1st round as compensation for Gray and Gallo is the perfect situation for me. Likely means the team did quite well this season, and they're setting themselves up really nicely for the future.
  20. chpettit19
    The pending FAs being worthy of a QO changes the math on deadline trades and raises the price. Could be good or bad for the idea of trading them depending on the view. The equation changes from needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season to needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season plus the value of a late 1st round pick (or 3rd rd pick depending on the size of the deal you think they'd get). It can make it much harder to find a trade partner willing to give up what you'd demand in return at the deadline. All the "math" on this also changes depending on the team's W-L situation as well. But some teams would back away from giving a prospect return equal to the major leaguer's 2nd half value plus a late first round pick so it can limit your pool of trade partner possibilities. But if you can find a willing partner it can also mean you get a really nice return for that type of guy. My hope is the team is in first place because all these guys are performing well and they don't trade any of them and get 2 or 3 comp picks for next year.
  21. chpettit19
    No limitations on the QOs a team can offer. As examples: Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Yankees put QOs on 2 players this last offseason. Mets had 3.
  22. chpettit19
    Gray, Mahle, and Gallo all getting QOs and signing for 50M+ would be fantastic. You can restock the farm big time with that. Even just 1 or 2 of them getting the QO and 50+ would be great. I mean all 3 getting the QO, but getting less than 50M, would still be good by adding 3 extra picks a little later in the draft. I'd predict at least 2 of them get the QO and 50M+ so the Twins will have basically 3 first round picks next year. Hopefully those 2 are Gray and Gallo while Mahle is good and signs an extension to stay here and front the rotation with Lopez (he's starting to grow on me). That'd be the ideal situation.
  23. chpettit19
    Yes! Best player available. Especially this high in the draft. I actually think it's the route you should go for the first 5 rounds, but it gets a little more difficult with signing bonuses and all that as the draft progresses. But first round pick, especially a top 5 pick, has always got to be best player available. I don't care if they have 5 Byron Buxtons (talent, not health-wise) lined up at CF in the system. If the best player is another Byron Buxton you draft them. Just collect as much talent as you can and figure it out from there.
  24. chpettit19
    I'm probably the biggest Lewis supporter on these boards, and a huge advocate for the Twins doing some of these early extensions to buy out some FA years for well below what market value will be by then, but not even I would give Lewis an extension after back to back ACL surgeries. If he comes back and plays the 2nd half like the star I think he'll be then I'd certainly look to give him a Carroll-type extension next spring, but not before that. If Lee destroys AA and debuts this season I'd definitely try to lock him into a Harris type extension.
  25. chpettit19
    Yeah, that was the whole "lefty masher, part-time player" part of my comment. I never advocated for him being a full-time player or anything. He's got a very specific role on this roster. Just wanted to give an above average MLB player his due. He's been far better than the "career OPS+ of 92" hitter you were painting him as since his return to MLB in 2019. I don't want him as the full-time 1B for more than a week at any point in the season. But I do want to give the man credit for the hitter he's turned himself into since 2019 by providing a little context to his career stats.
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