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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    To be fair to Max, he's absolutely not a K machine. 14.8% last year, and 17.9% for his career. And as for their OF offense, even with the injuries to basically everyone, and playing all of September with an OF of AAA players, they were still 16th in OF offensive production according to wRC+ last year. I think you're selling the rest of the league short on how bad some of them truly are. You may not enjoy the "all or nothing approach" (and I think most fans agree, that's why MLB is changing rules), but it is actually pretty good at producing runs. Just not entertainment. There's a reason teams accept Ks for HRs. HRs are the best way to score.
  2. chpettit19
    Totally agree. Reports out of Florida are that Kirilloff is there and swinging freely. I'm really hoping that means this surgery worked and he can finally show his true self this season. Seems like a good kid and deserves a real shot at a career not ruined by his wrist.
  3. chpettit19
    I like the idea of Gurriel as the right handed bench bat/1B platoon. However, I wouldn't drop anyone not named Pagan from the 40-man for him. So I'd try to come to an agreement with him, but not sign him until Canterino and Paddack hit the 60 day. He's a champion and gamer. The team can use more of those.
  4. chpettit19
    Yeah, my first thought was Ober to the pen for a long relief role as well. 120 over 7 2/3 isn't the expectation of any pitcher in baseball, though. I mean literally none are doing that on a regular basis. To me the move would also be Ober to the pen for a long role and then being the first guy to take a spot start when needed. I don't expect to see a bunch of 4-5 inning starts, though. I think the expectation will be that Ryan, Gray, Lopez, and Mahle have the chance to go 6 or 7 innings early in the year. Maybe not their first start, but Gray and Ryan were doing 6 or 7 inning starts (despite what some fans would lead you to believe) before Gray got hurt and Ryan got covid. I'm guessing Maeda is on a little shorter of a leash, but he's probably still in line to get 5 or 6 inning starts early. Maybe Mahle is more 5 or 6 innings as well until he shows that shoulder is good. But I hope they still carry a long guy, and I'd use Ober. They started last year with Winder in that role before he got hurt and I hope they just put Ober there this year, and have Winder, SWR, Varland, etc. in AAA as options 7, 8, 9 and so on. I agree Ober isn't likely to stay healthy all year, and he's one of our 13 best pitchers to start the year so I'd like him in Minneapolis. But I think fans will be surprised by the length of starts they're asking from this rotation.
  5. chpettit19
    I was just passing along the info Hayes says the team is telling him. But trading their best pitcher in order to make a push doesn't sound smart to me. We'll see what happens, though. I was simply passing along the reports coming from Hayes.
  6. chpettit19
    For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.
  7. chpettit19
    If he ends 2023 in AA at the age of 20 he'll be a pretty exciting option to have around. But I totally agree and would've thought one of those young arms in their system would've been the target. I'd rather have taken a young arm over Salas and Chourio. But Salas feels like he could be a faster version of Lee, and I'm real excited about Lee. Never mad when they add high upside guys currently playing up the middle. Lots of cognitive dissonance feeling like they did well in an Arraez for Lopez deal, though. My brain likes it, but my heart doesn't!
  8. chpettit19
    I've been against an Arraez for Lopez deal as I didn't think that was a fair trade for the Twins straight up. I didn't have expectations that they could return Lopez, a top 100 global prospect, and another 17 year old flier. I hate losing Arraez and will have to get the MLB.tv package again so I can still watch his ABs. But this seems like a pretty good trade for the Twins. Even if I'm not a Lopez believer. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
  9. chpettit19
    So they didn't know Dyson was hurt before they traded for him, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. Maeda had no injury concerns in 4 seasons in LA, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. I'd argue Mahle wasn't a "distressed asset" either. At least the price they paid for him didn't suggest they were buying low on a "distressed asset" at all. But I'll give you that one even if I don't buy the premise. That's 4 players (Mahle, Paddack, Donaldson, and Correa) in 6 seasons. Not sure I'd consider that a trend. Really it's just a handful of players that give fans something to complain about.
  10. chpettit19
    His ankles were definitely part of the move, along with him just not being a good SS. Yeah, it was PEDs in 2018. I like Polanco, and he does seem to be wearing down now, but he's also 29, and not 25 like Arraez. My point is simply that Arraez has publicly spoken about how bad his knees have gotten over the course of the last 2 seasons. That's not a good sign when you're that young.
  11. chpettit19
    They completely and fully agree with it. Is the argument that Houston doesn't use analytics? They're one of the leaders of the analytics charge. They've had one of the biggest analytics departments in baseball for a decade. They shift more than just about any team in baseball (2nd to the Dodgers last year). I mean "old school Dusty" shifted 82% of the time against left handed hitters last year. 82%! Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's on board with analytics. They went to the World Series in 2021 averaging less than 4 innings per start throughout the postseason. People see Dusty's name and just automatically think they don't use analytics. The Astros are one of the 2 or 3 most analytics driven teams in all of baseball.
  12. chpettit19
    To be fair to Maeda it's some really skewed data to look at just his half season before he had TJ, and the subsequent season he missed after. Even getting moved to the bullpen at the end of the year with the Dodgers he averaged 26 starts a year for LA. There's no reason to think he can't come back and throw a full 32 starts this year. Pitchers do it all the time. Ober, on the other hand, has really never stayed healthy.
  13. chpettit19
    This is pretty much where I'm at, too. Love the Lee pick, and expect great things out of him. Keep him at SS until he's sharing a field with someone better than him there (Lewis in AAA in July?). AA makes complete sense for a starting spot this year. I'm not a "step by step" guy with prospects so am not too concerned about him seeing AAA at all, but since there's a number of other young IF types ahead of him currently I don't know that I think he debuts this year. If he does it's either really good or really bad. Really good if he's simply mashing and is making it abundantly clear he's one of the best 13 hitters in the org. Really bad if everyone ahead of him is hurt or flopped so bad they had to go to him.
  14. chpettit19
    No on Lee, even though it's close (which makes sense considering they went 3 picks apart last year). I'd trade Kepler for him (don't think the Mets would take that 1 for 1, though). The other guys are interesting. Parada is in low A. That's a long ways away. I'd absolutely love a catcher like him in our system, but I don't know that I'd want to give up any of the other current MLBers for him. Just doesn't feel like a time to be building for the future at the expense of the present. 3 years of Vasquez and Jeffers should be solid and gives them a chance to add high end catching without trading guys now. Who says there isn't someone just as good as Parada available at pick 5 this summer? Interesting idea, though.
  15. chpettit19
    Jorge Polanco was suspended in 2018, not injured. He had never spent a day on the IL before 2022. He's not a guy you should point to of an injury risk. A guy not hitting the IL once until his 9th year is most certainly not someone "with bad legs."
  16. chpettit19
    A couple things with this chart. 1- You're looking at the wrong Lopez. Who you have is Jorge Lopez and we're talking about Pablo Lopez. 2- The 2020 stats render the "Avg" column completely useless if you're attempting to see how close to a "full season" (32ish starts) they get since it was literally impossible for any of them to make 32 starts in a season of only 60 games. So if you want to see how many starts they tend to get in a full year (since 2020 apparently) the numbers are: Gray: 25 Maeda: 11 Ober: 16 Mahle: 28 Ryan: 25 Lopez (Pablo, not Jorge): 26
  17. chpettit19
    I don't disagree with any of that. I'm not pushing for Farmer to be an OF regular, just saying him being able to play out there as well would be a nice addition of flexibility early in the year. I expect (hope?) Martin is the righty OF/IF utility guy after a couple months of the season (with Lewis the option in July and beyond). There's a lot of variables in all of this. I prefer Garlick never wears a Twins jersey again (just not a fan of players who only bring hitting lefties, no speed, no defense to the table) so like Farmer as a possible option there. Like if injuries dictate a callup and Julien is tearing the cover off the ball in St Paul I'd rather have him be the one who crosses the river if Farmer can play OF and it doesn't dictate a Garlick move simply because he's RH and "plays" OF. Farmer being able to take a corner OF spot when needed just adds flexibility and allows them to use the best players and not be as limited on who you can possibly put on the field. If you're not a locked in, everyday starter (Correa, Polanco, Buxton, Miranda, peak Kirilloff types) I prefer having guys who can move around.
  18. chpettit19
    If Farmer can play the corner outfield that'd be huge. Like the article says, he doesn't even have to play it that well to be a useful replacement for Garlick. Farmer is a couple steps faster than Garlick, and Garlick was horrible in the field so the bar is not high. His bat against lefties is just as potent, but his OPS against righties is 70 points higher. Not a huge jump, but he's not completely useless against righties like Garlick. I'd even think Farmer would be happy to give the OF a shot in spring since it'd open up significantly more playing time opportunities. He's not replacing Correa, Miranda, or Polanco except on rest days. His best chance for playing time is to replace a lefty against lefties. Those opportunities are in the corner OF and 1B. Being able to play the corner OF would put him in the lineup against every lefty starter, and open in game pinch hitting opportunities when lefty relievers come in. Being able to keep Garlick in AAA, and not on the 40-man, to start the year would be really nice. Same with Celestino (he'd still be on the 40-man, but in AAA). Farmer holding down the RH cOF spot until Lewis or Martin are ready would allow them to never have to put Garlick back on a major league field. That'd make me happy. He's fine as injury emergency guy in AAA, not on the 40-man. I hope he stays in that role because Farmer can bridge to Lewis and/or Martin.
  19. chpettit19
    I'm curious about this. I agree that where they play isn't really relevant in a vacuum, but is your goal simply to have an even number of righties and lefties in the lineup every day (plus the SH Polanco) no matter who the starter for the other team is, or what their bullpen makeup is like?
  20. chpettit19
    Me knowing it was Ryan allowed me to know his starts were low because he debuted 2 years later, and missed time with covid as opposed to injuries like I know Lopez has struggled with before last year. So not exactly a blind ranking for me.
  21. chpettit19
    I'd go 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6. But I also know who the guys are so am fighting a little extra bias. Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober. I'm into WHIP and SO9, but also like the ERA+ to give me a bit better idea of a comparison of where the ERAs were at with regard to the environment they pitched in. The rotation (+Lopez) is truly Gray and a bunch of the same guy. It's why I'm not excited about a potential Lopez trade. He's not a ceiling raiser. He's the same guy (with lower Ks) than the other 4 dudes we already have after Gray.
  22. chpettit19
    In what way does Lopez "simply rate higher than any current Twins starter?" Here's stats from 2019-2022 for 6 starters (Twins likely starting 5 currently, plus Lopez). How would you rank them? Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9, 7.8 bWAR Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9, 12.6 bWAR Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9, 3.3 bWAR Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9, 8.7 bWAR Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9, 2.6 bWAR Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9, 2.1 bWAR
  23. chpettit19
    If Arraez can help net a frontline starter it's a deal you have to do. If Arraez can't get you any better than Pablo Lopez it's a deal you can't do. That seems to be the Twins thoughts on things so I have faith this saga will play out in a reasonable way. I have been surprised before, though. But if they stick to that thought process I'm happy.
  24. chpettit19
    Pagan for Adell? Done and done. Alexy, Sands, Celestino, Gallo, Kepler. If one of those 6 guys can fetch you Adell (plus a flier for someone like Gallo or Kepler) then I'd do it. My concern with Adell is that, despite top of the charts speed, he's a terrible defender. The combination of power and speed is definitely an intriguing one for special upside. But if you can't develop the hit and field tools you end up with Lewis Brinson, Keon Broxton, or any of the other guys who could run real fast and hit the ball real far, but couldn't play baseball. Since Adell requires a 40-man spot it limits my desire for him. But there's worst things to go after than sky high potential.
  25. chpettit19
    To me, Kepler and Larnach would be a massive overpay for Lopez. With the Yankees turning down sending Gleyber Torres to Miami in exchange for Lopez last year we know at least 1 team didn't find him worthy of a guy who's had 4.9 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR from 2020-2022. Max Kepler has had 5.2 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR from 2020-2022. Torres and Kepler, like Lopez, have 2 years of team control left. Torres will be paid either 10.2 or 9.7 million next year depending on how his arbitration hearing goes. Max Kepler will make 8.5. Torres will get a raise on that 2023 contract in his last year of arbitration in 2024 while Max will be on a 10 million team option. Torres is younger than Max, and had a better year last year, but I don't know why we should think Lopez is worth much more than Kepler at all. We have real world evidence that the league doesn't seem to think he's worth more than that. Edited to add: And after the Yankees turned down that trade Lopez went on to have 2 really bad months with a 4.61 ERA in August, and 4.24 in September. His value certainly didn't go up after that trade was turned down. Oh, and his ERAs in June and July were 5.34 and 4.65. He's simply not a great pitcher. Thus I'd put him 5th in our current rotation simply because Ober can't stay healthy.
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