chpettit19

Wil Myers and Adam Duvall are the 2 names that come to mind with a similar type profile as righties. Myers certainly not the same defender as Gallo, and doesn't play CF ever, while Duvall doesn't play 1B. Duvall 4 years older, Myers 3 years older. Myers a little better BA and not as much power, but still tons of Ks and BBs. Duvall a little better BA and good power, but no BBs and medium Ks. I think they'd be the best comps Gallo as righties as FAs this offseason. Myers signed for 7.5M in Cinci, Duvall for 7M in Boston.

I think that's a big part of the argument for many of us that aren't super upset with him being here and Arraez not. It's not just about being at the plate. I'd take a lineup of Gallo's over a lineup of Arraez's 10 out of 10 times because Gallo is faster, a significantly better fielder, has a significantly better arm, and hits for significantly better power. Arraez is significantly better at his "hit" tool. I'll take the guy with the edge in 4 of the 5 "core tools" of baseball over the guy with the 1 tool that is just more entertaining to watch in the batter's box. A team of Gallo clones would beat a team of Arraez clones. Probably by a pretty good margin, too.

If you didn't like him in Texas I don't think you're going to like him in MN. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, just that you won't. To Hunter's point, he's not going to change. According to the baseball industry Joey Gallo was a well above average player in Texas. But he plays a style of game (with the bat) that's not enjoyable for a lot of fans (me included). I look forward to watching a competent/smart defender and base runner. I don't look forward to the Ks and .200 BA. I think you can survive with 1 of those guys in the order so I'm not all that upset with this Gallo deal. I like to look at "tools." Gallo has 3.5 in my view. Power. Glove. Arm. And .5 for speed. He's awful at the hitting tool, though. And that's a really bad thing to be bad at when it comes to entertainment. I want a team with as many "tools" as possible, and hopefully the ones each guy is missing aren't the same. You need some balance. But it's also really hard to lose a guy like Arraez who's simply more fun to watch hit because his 1 tool is his hit tool (I'll give him .5 for his glove at 1B). But there's much more to being a baseball player than just the hit tool so my non-emotional side would say Gallo brings more to the team. But I'd much rather watch Arraez in that batter's box. It's all very stressful for my brain and heart.

I wasn't excited about Sabato as a pick because I don't like 2 tool players in the 1st round, but he absolutely slaughtered college baseball and it's crazy to see him completely incapable of hitting in the low minors. I'd bet some batted ball data, and things like that, had the Twins outsmarting themselves on that pick. Really disappointed to see how he's progressed. I'd put Sands in the pen as well. It's getting difficult for the Twins on the starter prospect front, though. With Ober's inability to stay healthy, Winder's shoulder concerns, Canterino's Rice problem, Sands and Henriquez both looking like better reliever options than starter options, Enlow not finding his footing yet, and Balazovic falling apart last year that grouping really took a hit. It could be really good for the pen if Duran, Canterino, Jax, Ober, Winder, Sands, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, etc. all find a foothold there, but that really puts a lot on Ryan, Varland, SWR, Prielipp, and Raya becoming the rotation in the next couple years. Or we just keep on the "trade for 2 years of a starter" train, but that's less than ideal I think.

I don't know if by "same path" you mean being injured or not performing, but I hope it's not not performing. Because I feel like that is a perception thing. 66% of 1st round picks make it to the majors. Not succeed in the majors, simply ever play in the majors. The percentage obviously goes down from there. I don't know what you consider "top picks," but here's all the guys this FO has picked in the top 3 rounds: Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino, Spencer Steer, Aaron Sabato, Alerick Soularie, Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Brooks Lee, Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel. That's 19 total players. 12 hitters. 7 pitchers. They've had 6 of them reach the majors to this point. All 6 are hitters. So half the hitters they've taken in the top 3 rounds have reached the majors to this point. That's above average to start with, but then you consider that only 10 of these guys were drafted before 2020 and the numbers are even more impressive. Only 4 (unless I missed 1 or 2 in my counting) players from the 2020 draft have debuted to this point so expecting the Twins to have had any is pretty unreasonable. So they've had 6 of 10 players in the top 3 rounds of their first 3 drafts debut. Remember, only 66% of 1st round picks ever debut, let alone rounds 2 and 3. The only hitter they took in the 2016-2019 drafts (in the top 3 rounds) that hasn't debuted is Cavaco. Him and Sabato are looking like pretty big misses, but overall the Twins have actually done a pretty incredible job at drafting and developing early round hitters. They could certainly use Lewis and Larnach and Lee staying healthy and becoming stars to really make things look good, but compared to the rest of the league they're doing quite well. And they really need to figure out the frontline pitching situation. Need to start churning a couple of those types out. But the narrative that they've struggled with drafting and developing appears to be based off some really high expectations that don't match the reality of the baseball draft.

Best player available. Always and forever. Unless it's a high school arm at the top of the draft. They fail far too often. But at pick 5 they should be going best player available and not overthinking anything.

The question to me is why he's dominant, and then his ability to find another way to be dominant if his current way wouldn't work in the rotation. Was he dominant in the pen because he could just let it rip for 20 or 30 pitches and his stuff was so good nothing else really mattered? If that's the case then you have to worry about him not being dominant as a starter in the minors even though he wasn't throwing a ton of innings per start. Then the question is could he improve his control, pitch sequencing, etc. to improve his numbers as a starter and become the ace we'd hope for. I don't know the answers to those questions so I don't have a real strong opinion on him being a starter or staying in the pen. I don't think him wanting to be a starter should mean the Twins put him back in the rotation, though. It's their jobs to put players in the best positions to succeed, not just put them where they want to be. You don't think most relievers want to be starters? Don't think every middle relief guy wants to be a closer? Don't think infielders all want to play SS and hit 3rd? I'd also continue to use him in the fireman role he was in last year. He'd be the guy I bring in for all the high leverage situations, and to face the heart of the other team's lineup. I think it's just as hard to find a guy who can excel in that role as it is to find a guy who can lock down the 9th in a 1 run game.

How many pitchers make it through their entire professional career without getting TJ these days? I understand that there was concern when he signed. But the Dodgers clearly weren't babying him, or all that worried about things, if they let him make 32 starts his first year. He went 5 and a half years with no problems. Then his elbow, like most pitchers in this day and age, gave out. If a pitcher has no arm issues while throwing a full workload for 4 seasons, then the Twins acquire him and he has no problems with them for a year and a half, then has TJ it's entirely disingenuous, and revisionist history, to suggest he was a ticking time bomb. A major league pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is not a high risk player. Last year's top 10 fWAR pitchers: Aaron Nola- had TJ Carlos Rodon- had TJ Justin Verlander- had TJ Sandy Alcantara- no TJ Kevin Gausman- no TJ Shohei Ohtani- had TJ Max Fried- had TJ Shane Bieber- no TJ Corbin Burnes- no TJ Framber Valdez- no TJ 50% of the top 10 has had TJ in their careers. That's not including any other arm injuries. Just TJ. 50% of them. Every professional pitcher has a high risk of needing surgery down the line. A pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is absolutely not any higher risk than any other pitcher.

I simply want to provide some perspective and information. I agree, he's had plenty of times where he had wonderful at bats and they were a delight to watch. I will miss him so much that I'm going to pay whatever ridiculous amount MLB is charging for MLB.tv this year so I can continue to watch him in Miami. But when there's actual information on things I find it important to provide it so people are aware of the actual facts of things. Not just in baseball, but everything. And I realize it's one of my more annoying qualities 😔 But provable facts need to be carried with more weight than opinions in our world again. And I enjoy engaging with you because you put real thought into your posts, and provide useful, and interesting, perspective. It's a sign of respect that I'm willing to annoy you more than others! 🙂

You're trying to make it sound like he was something crazy. There only 131 qualified hitters last year. He was .11 pitches over league average. That's nothing. The narrative that he was up there having crazy long at bats compared to everyone else is simply false. Miguel Sano has longer at bats than Arraez, are you going to miss those "long at-bats and battles?" I mean if seeing lots of pitches is what you want you should love Sano. Jake Cave was tied with Arraez. You going to miss his "long at-bats and battles?" Polanco, Correa, and Larnach are still here so you'll at least be able to enjoy their ABs since they all average more pitches per plate appearance than Arraez. The point is that we can miss Arraez, and wish he was here, without pretending he was someone he wasn't. Arraez was an absolute treat to watch hit. But he wasn't someone up there seeing significantly more pitches than anyone else.

Not going to lie, that is the first time I've ever seen the washington post stats page listed as a resource. I didn't even know that existed. Well done. But here's a real baseball resource. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-pitches-batting.shtml League average was 3.90. Arraez was at 4.01. So .11 pitches per plate appearance above league average. He was 41st in baseball for hitters with at least 502 plate appearances. 41st out of 131 is nice, but not something crazy. And when you lower the threshold he falls even further down the list. Not sure what your source is basing their numbers on to get him up to #17. Edited: I see you're on AL only. So that's why he's up higher.

4 years with no arm problems. That's all there is to know. 4 years. If 4 years isn't enough to not be concerned about something you'd never trade for a single major league pitcher. He had no IL stints for his arm in 4 seasons in LA. Trying to pretend he was a higher risk than the average pitcher is simply ignoring the reality of major league pitchers health. He started 32 games his first season there. That's not "handling him carefully to get the most out of him."

And teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Rays aren't actually all that good at it either. Dodgers 1st round picks from 2013 through 2019: 2013- Chris Anderson (never made bigs, out of baseball after 2017) 2014- Grant Holmes (never made bigs, still fighting but a non-prospect) 2015- Walker Buehler (massive hit- Twins don't have one of him) 2016- Gavin Lux (made bigs, hasn't excelled but has promise- sounds like some Twins guys) 2017- Jeren Kendall (never made bigs, still in AA), 2018- JT Ginn (not in bigs yet, but a decent prospect) 2019- Kody Hoese (not in bigs yet, struggled at AA last year). That's only 2 out of 7 guys who've debuted after having been drafted in 2019 or sooner. Buehler being an A+ pick, Lux being in the same boat as most of the Twins guys in that he's reached the bigs, but not really excelled. A little perspective goes a long ways when looking at draft picks. Astros picks 2013-2019: Mark Appel, Brady Aiken, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker (in the same draft as Bregman-they crushed that draft), Forrest Whitley, JB Bukauskas, Seth Beer, Korey Lee Rays picks 2013-2019: Nick Ciuffo, Ryne Stanek, Casey Gillaspie, Garrett Whitley, Josh Lowe, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Greg Jones Drafting is hard. I'm not going to go through all 30 teams, but the Astros hit massively on 2 guys, but completely whiffed on 5. Rays didn't massively hit on any. First round MLB draft picks are an absolute crapshoot.

Kenta Maeda had no arm and injury concerns while he was with the Dodgers for 4 seasons. He made 32 starts his first year. 25 his second year before going to the pen for the end of the season and playoffs. 20 in his 3rd year before going to the pen again. 26 in his 4th year before the pen move. He may have had concerns before they signed him, but while he was with the Dodgers he had no issues at all. Trying to sell Maeda as some sort of higher than usual risk when the Twins acquired him is ignoring the realities of what he did in LA. He had 3 IL stints with the Dodgers. All of which he spent the minimum amount of time on the IL and were for leg injuries. That is by no means a guy with "arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers." That's just a regular MLB pitcher.

Strongly disagree that Celestino is the one on the bubble and Larnach will have to "power his way from St Paul to Minneapolis." Celestino has no role on this team with Taylor here. Larnach is on the roster as of now with Celestino finally getting his much needed time in AAA to work on his game.

I'd give Balazovic at least the first half of this season in the rotation in St Paul before making that move. I think Winder, Ober, and Canterino are already well on their way to bullpen roles due to their inability to stay healthy in the rotation. Would like to hold off as long as I could on Balazovic (and Ober, but 1 more injury for him and it'd be to the bullpen for me). At some point they need one of these kids to be able to throw 180 innings in a season without being hurt.

Kenta Maeda had no injury problems in LA. Not sure what the complaint is here. Graterol has never even struck out 9 per 9. Relievers that don't average at least 1 K per inning are not "the highest upside pitching prospects." Even missing an entire season to TJ Maeda has provided more value to the Twins than Graterol has to the Dodgers. By a significant margin.

I agree it's probably a fool's errand to be predicting the opening day roster at this point. Was just curious on the Larnach in St Paul idea. I also would love to see Julien go bonkers in Florida and at least make it a tough decision. I'd guess they'd still bring Larnach north and play the old service time game with Julien, but I hope he makes them at least think about it. I'm not writing this team in as WS contenders yet, but I'm much happier with how the 40-man looks today than I have been in January for a very long time. I don't want Taylor starting on an everyday basis, but he's a legit MLB bench player. The 40-man is getting to the point where there's real thought that has to be put into who gets DFA'd and they can't just throw a dart at it and ship out one of 20 guys without worrying. Kinda fun.

Who do you have as their 13 position players now if Larnach is in St Paul?

It's an "eh" depth move. Nothing to write home about. But, even given he's not a good hitter, he's significantly better than Celestino at this point in their careers. Taylor's career OPS is only .677. Not impressive at all. But Celestino has had an OPS over .600 for 2 months of his (short) MLB career. Last August he was a .606. May he was at .844 and it made his overall season look slightly less than completely and utterly unplayable. He OPSed .458 in June and .477 in July in 2021. March/April of 2022 he was at .581, June .589, July .468, September/October .552. He needs to be in AAA. He's absolutely, totally, and completely not ready for major league baseball yet.

Celestino needs to progress at AAA. He's not ready for MLB yet. That's abundantly clear. Having him back in AAA is by far the better option for him and his development.

Will be interesting to see where the position player moves go from here. Right now I have the 13 position players as: Jeffers- C only Vazquez- C only Correa- SS only Farmer- IF/cOF or C in a pinch Miranda- cIF/2B in a pinch Polanco- 2B only Buxton- CF only Gallo- OF/1B or 3B in a pinch Gordon- Utility with emphasis on OF Kepler- OF/1B in a pinch Kirilloff- 1B/cOF Larnach- cOF only Taylor- OF only Obviously all eligible to DH as well. But that's a lot of versatility. Even if they all have dominant position areas, there's a lot of guys who can cover other spots. And those are all guys who deserve a legit MLB shot. Wouldn't be shocked if they stick with this or if they make more moves. FO is cooking now.

I'd guess he's the first one on the chopping block, but I just want Pagan to go away so I'm willing to release him for anyone. I'd sign you and put you on the 40-man over Pagan, and I've never even see you play baseball!

If I'm remembering correctly, about 66% of 1st round picks even make the major leagues. With that as the bench mark, and not counting the picks from 2020-2022 as it's not realistic to expect players from the last 3 years to have debuted yet, the Twins were 5/7. This regime was 2/3. That's not too bad. Nothing to claim they're great at, but nothing to be upset about either.

The first thing I notice is that the vast majority of their starting pitching was acquired via MLB trade. I don't know if that'd be the case if guys like Canterino, Ober, and Winder could stay healthy, but that's where things are at. The key moving forward now is filling that rotation with more pre-arb guys. Ryan, SWR, Varland, and Balazovic need to step up and take over 60% of the rotation. Ryan is already there. So need 2 of the others, at a minimum, to step in as well. Ober is an interesting piece. He's broken down basically every year of his career, and a move to the pen may be the move for him, unfortunately. Same with Canterino and Winder. But a pen of Duran, Jax, Alcala, Moran, Canterino, Ober, and Winder could be real cheap and real good if they can all stay healthy in those roles. Prielipp and Raya are also really big pieces moving forward (but not on the 40-man so didn't want to discuss too much in this thread). The second thing I notice is that they seem to have a really good ability to develop legit MLB quality position players. They need their star position players to be healthy, but the last few years have seen a pretty steady flow of legit major league prospects graduating or being traded for current major leaguers. Steer and CES can be added to the current stable of Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, and Gordon. I'm not sold on Celestino, but that's 10 guys in the last couple years who look like guys legitimately worthy of a shot in major league baseball. You can build a team around that kind of development.