chpettit19

Twins pitchers and catchers report Feb 16, and position players Feb 20. Unless they're playing the WBC, and then it's the 13th and 16th respectively. Less than a month before things start getting going! Kirilloff is already in FL at the complex, and reports are he's swinging freely. But he was also feeling good at this time last year so that's no guarantee of anything. I think having a backup plan for him is entirely reasonable even though things are looking really good right now. Larnach was actually one of the best graded outfielders in baseball in his short time last year. Not saying we should take that as gospel, but he was significantly improved defensively last year. Certainly a downgrade from Kepler, but almost every RFer in baseball is a downgrade from Kepler. I haven't seen many reports on his health, but I believe he is healthy right now.

Trading for these types of guys with with just a couple years of control left likely isn't sustainable. But isn't a bad part of an overall strategy. They need to start developing some frontline guys in house. Whether by drafting and developing, using the international signing period and developing, or trading for prospects and developing. A mix of improved development (I think they develop major league pitchers pretty well, but need to produce some frontline guys. My hope is on Prielipp) and these types of good, not great pitchers that they can turn into great pitchers would be wonderful and lead to real success. I will say that if Duran, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Canterino, Ober, Winder, and Henriquez can form a shutdown bullpen that is definitely a nice bit of internal development. Canterino, Winder, and Ober on the list due to real questions about their ability to hold up in the rotation.

Respectfully, you're wrong here. For 1 thing, as a singles hitter Arraez wouldn't try to beat the shift by hitting over it, he'd just lay down a bunt or slap the ball to left since he's most likely to get a single anyway. You wouldn't be taking anything away from him by shifting him. You'd actually be making his life easier. For a 2nd thing, there were 19 of 30 teams who shifted left handed hitters over 50% of the time. And only 2 that didn't shift them at least 40% of the time. You really think they shifted him 2% of the time on accident?

Wait, you're surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right based on that spray chart? I mean that thing is about as shift proof as you can get. Last year he pulled the ball (so to the right) 28.4% of the time (27.1% for his career), hit it up the middle 41.2% of the time (40.4% for his career), and went oppo (so to the left) 30.4% of the time (32.5% for his career). Why would teams shift him ever, let alone to the right?

If they can get about 25 starts a piece out of their top 5 guys I think they have a real shot at the division. That would leave about 40 starts to be covered by the young guys. One of which is probably Ober since it doesn't sound like he'll start the season in the rotation as of now. If he gives you 20 starts and you're looking at about 145 starts out of Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober I think they win the division.

Comparing to the White Sox and Guardians is interesting. Both of them have guys with far better chances to be #1s, no doubt about it. But during the regular season (to me, if you're talking "3rd best team in the division" you're talking regular season) I'd argue the Twins ability to role out a deeper rotation than either squad puts them in a good spot to compete. If you're a believer in fWAR you should be relatively happy with the Twins regular season rotation (playoffs is a different argument). Last year the top 5 guys for the White Sox (Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger, Kopech) totaled 9.5 fWAR between them (average 1.9), and made 130 starts (average 26). The Guardians top 5 (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac) totaled 12.9 fWAR between them (average 2.58), and made 137 starts (average 27.4). The Twins top 5 guys (Lopez, Gray, Maeda (stats from 2021), Ryan, Mahle) had a total of 11 fWAR (average 2.2) and made 127 starts (average 25.4). Top 15 guys in order of fWAR from last year (or Maeda's 2021 when he only made 21 starts and people thought he was having a down year before he was hurt): Bieber- 4.9 in 31 starts Cease- 4.4 in 32 starts McKenzie- 3.6 in 30 starts Lopez- 2.8 in 32 starts Gray- 2.4 in 24 starts Quantrill- 2.2 in 32 starts Ryan- 2.1 in 27 starts Mahle- 2.1 in 23 starts Lynn- 1.9 in 21 starts Giolito- 1.8 in 30 starts Maeda- 1.6 in 21 starts (sub in Ober at 1.4 in only 11 starts if you want) Civale- 1.3 in 20 starts Kopech- 1 in 25 starts Plesac- .9 in 24 starts Clevinger- .4 in 22 starts I won't lie, some of those numbers surprised me. I think part of the struggle is that we watch/follow the Twins constantly while we only follow those other teams on the periphery. The Guardians get a ton of credit for their pitching, but the back end of their rotation is not great. Plesac and Civale are worse than any Twins starter, and Quantrill is right in the same category as the main Twins guys. Their advantage is Bieber and McKenzie, but that's a bigger advantage in the playoffs than the regular season. The White Sox are banking on Kopech figuring it out and Clevinger getting back to being even half of what he was in Cleveland back in the day. Cease is likely better than anyone the Twins can throw out there, but Lynn isn't getting younger, and Giolito is far from a sure thing. They'd both be right in the mix with what the Twins are doing. For 162 games it sure looks like the Twins have the ability to run out a deeper rotation than either of these teams (unless Cleveland brings up another superstar prospect which is always a possibility). I wouldn't say the Twins pitching is any sort of distant 3rd here, and has a very real chance of being better than the White Sox and challenging the Guardians for overall performance.

Wouldn't the change in the shift rules hurt Arraez's value? He wasn't shifted on to start with so he's not going to hit any better than he did simply because of the shift (he might hit better, but the shift wouldn't be why). But other guys will. If the rest of the league is now hitting for a higher average because of the shift ban, doesn't it make Arraez hitting for average a less valuable commodity?

If Chourio makes the bigs at all it'll be quite impressive. I don't bank on any 17 year old who hasn't even debuted in full season ball making the bigs. He's just a nice lottery ticket to have. But I think 3 years for Salas seems reasonable. As far as prospects go, he's got as good a shot as any. My hope is that he ends 2023 in AA. If he does that he's a big time prospect and on the doorstep. A Miranda style season this year would be incredible and I'd very much like it. I'm not a Lopez believer. Cognitive dissonance has me trying to see the positives in him now that he's on the Twins, but I was very much against a 1 for 1 swap of Arraez for Lopez. But adding a borderline (some evaluators have him in, some don't) top 100 global prospect in the deal makes it reasonable to me. Really hope Julien tears Spring Training apart and is the leadoff hitter for the Twins sooner than later. Assuming there's no other trades that bring in a leadoff hitter type.

Ok. But 2025 isn't 4 years away. It's 3 seasons away. If he's debuted in the majors at the age of 21/22 this trade would be a massive win for the Twins.

The comp to me, as a player, is a young(er) Brooks Lee. Switch hitting SS who has the hands and arm to stick, but maybe not the lateral quickness. Comes from a baseball family (Lee's dad being a college coach, and basically every male in Salas' family playing professional baseball). Currently more hit and approach than power, but there's hope 20 HRs a year is doable down the line. If they end up with 2 switch hitters who can bat .280+ with 15-20 HRs in a few years I think we'll all be really happy. I hope the kid ends 2023 in AA. That'd be a huge step for this system. Salas and Rodriguez in AA at the end of the year? That's what my dreams are made of.

What makes Salas "at least 4 years away?"

I guess it depends what your definition of "decent" is. To me, Kepler is the very definition of a "decent" bat, as he's only had 1 year truly above average, but the rest of the time is right about league average. While I think the effect of the shift ban is seriously overstated by some fans, if he had 12 more singles last year his BA would've jumped 30 points. Now that wasn't a full season of ABs, so the stats are a little skewed. But he did play a full season back in 2018, and 12 extra singles there would've raised his batting average from .224 to .246. Even 6 more singles would've raised his BA to .235 that year. It's part of why batting average isn't looked at as being so important anymore. Another example: if Luis Arraez had 3 fewer hits last year he would've beaten Judge for the batting title by .0002. 4 fewer hits and he'd have lost by .002 points. It's why teams tend to care more about overall batting performance, and not just BA.

When the 2nd sentence of the article is "Terry Ryan, the former Twins general manager, used a 2-through-8 system to have his scouts evaluate players" you know it's just going to be about how the game was better back in the day, and these new young guys, and their "analytics," don't know what they're doing. While I'll be the first to say that analytics have made the game far less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, it's embarrassing to tie the scouting scale to Terry Ryan like that. News flash: the Twins current front office also uses the 20-80 scale! Terry Ryan wasn't some super genius who was doing something outrageous. The 20-80 scale for scouting players was used by Branch Rickey who died back in the 60s. It's been around for a little while. Using Terry Ryan's name there is simply an attempt to get the "old school" crowd riled up. As for Arraez and an extension, he's not the first player to turn one down and won't be the last. Good for him for not taking less than he feels he's worth. And good for the Twins for not paying more for a player than they think he's worth.

To be fair to Max, he's absolutely not a K machine. 14.8% last year, and 17.9% for his career. And as for their OF offense, even with the injuries to basically everyone, and playing all of September with an OF of AAA players, they were still 16th in OF offensive production according to wRC+ last year. I think you're selling the rest of the league short on how bad some of them truly are. You may not enjoy the "all or nothing approach" (and I think most fans agree, that's why MLB is changing rules), but it is actually pretty good at producing runs. Just not entertainment. There's a reason teams accept Ks for HRs. HRs are the best way to score.

Totally agree. Reports out of Florida are that Kirilloff is there and swinging freely. I'm really hoping that means this surgery worked and he can finally show his true self this season. Seems like a good kid and deserves a real shot at a career not ruined by his wrist.

I like the idea of Gurriel as the right handed bench bat/1B platoon. However, I wouldn't drop anyone not named Pagan from the 40-man for him. So I'd try to come to an agreement with him, but not sign him until Canterino and Paddack hit the 60 day. He's a champion and gamer. The team can use more of those.

Yeah, my first thought was Ober to the pen for a long relief role as well. 120 over 7 2/3 isn't the expectation of any pitcher in baseball, though. I mean literally none are doing that on a regular basis. To me the move would also be Ober to the pen for a long role and then being the first guy to take a spot start when needed. I don't expect to see a bunch of 4-5 inning starts, though. I think the expectation will be that Ryan, Gray, Lopez, and Mahle have the chance to go 6 or 7 innings early in the year. Maybe not their first start, but Gray and Ryan were doing 6 or 7 inning starts (despite what some fans would lead you to believe) before Gray got hurt and Ryan got covid. I'm guessing Maeda is on a little shorter of a leash, but he's probably still in line to get 5 or 6 inning starts early. Maybe Mahle is more 5 or 6 innings as well until he shows that shoulder is good. But I hope they still carry a long guy, and I'd use Ober. They started last year with Winder in that role before he got hurt and I hope they just put Ober there this year, and have Winder, SWR, Varland, etc. in AAA as options 7, 8, 9 and so on. I agree Ober isn't likely to stay healthy all year, and he's one of our 13 best pitchers to start the year so I'd like him in Minneapolis. But I think fans will be surprised by the length of starts they're asking from this rotation.

I was just passing along the info Hayes says the team is telling him. But trading their best pitcher in order to make a push doesn't sound smart to me. We'll see what happens, though. I was simply passing along the reports coming from Hayes.

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

If he ends 2023 in AA at the age of 20 he'll be a pretty exciting option to have around. But I totally agree and would've thought one of those young arms in their system would've been the target. I'd rather have taken a young arm over Salas and Chourio. But Salas feels like he could be a faster version of Lee, and I'm real excited about Lee. Never mad when they add high upside guys currently playing up the middle. Lots of cognitive dissonance feeling like they did well in an Arraez for Lopez deal, though. My brain likes it, but my heart doesn't!

I've been against an Arraez for Lopez deal as I didn't think that was a fair trade for the Twins straight up. I didn't have expectations that they could return Lopez, a top 100 global prospect, and another 17 year old flier. I hate losing Arraez and will have to get the MLB.tv package again so I can still watch his ABs. But this seems like a pretty good trade for the Twins. Even if I'm not a Lopez believer. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

So they didn't know Dyson was hurt before they traded for him, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. Maeda had no injury concerns in 4 seasons in LA, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. I'd argue Mahle wasn't a "distressed asset" either. At least the price they paid for him didn't suggest they were buying low on a "distressed asset" at all. But I'll give you that one even if I don't buy the premise. That's 4 players (Mahle, Paddack, Donaldson, and Correa) in 6 seasons. Not sure I'd consider that a trend. Really it's just a handful of players that give fans something to complain about.

His ankles were definitely part of the move, along with him just not being a good SS. Yeah, it was PEDs in 2018. I like Polanco, and he does seem to be wearing down now, but he's also 29, and not 25 like Arraez. My point is simply that Arraez has publicly spoken about how bad his knees have gotten over the course of the last 2 seasons. That's not a good sign when you're that young.

They completely and fully agree with it. Is the argument that Houston doesn't use analytics? They're one of the leaders of the analytics charge. They've had one of the biggest analytics departments in baseball for a decade. They shift more than just about any team in baseball (2nd to the Dodgers last year). I mean "old school Dusty" shifted 82% of the time against left handed hitters last year. 82%! Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's on board with analytics. They went to the World Series in 2021 averaging less than 4 innings per start throughout the postseason. People see Dusty's name and just automatically think they don't use analytics. The Astros are one of the 2 or 3 most analytics driven teams in all of baseball.

To be fair to Maeda it's some really skewed data to look at just his half season before he had TJ, and the subsequent season he missed after. Even getting moved to the bullpen at the end of the year with the Dodgers he averaged 26 starts a year for LA. There's no reason to think he can't come back and throw a full 32 starts this year. Pitchers do it all the time. Ober, on the other hand, has really never stayed healthy.