chpettit19

This is pretty much where I'm at, too. Love the Lee pick, and expect great things out of him. Keep him at SS until he's sharing a field with someone better than him there (Lewis in AAA in July?). AA makes complete sense for a starting spot this year. I'm not a "step by step" guy with prospects so am not too concerned about him seeing AAA at all, but since there's a number of other young IF types ahead of him currently I don't know that I think he debuts this year. If he does it's either really good or really bad. Really good if he's simply mashing and is making it abundantly clear he's one of the best 13 hitters in the org. Really bad if everyone ahead of him is hurt or flopped so bad they had to go to him.

No on Lee, even though it's close (which makes sense considering they went 3 picks apart last year). I'd trade Kepler for him (don't think the Mets would take that 1 for 1, though). The other guys are interesting. Parada is in low A. That's a long ways away. I'd absolutely love a catcher like him in our system, but I don't know that I'd want to give up any of the other current MLBers for him. Just doesn't feel like a time to be building for the future at the expense of the present. 3 years of Vasquez and Jeffers should be solid and gives them a chance to add high end catching without trading guys now. Who says there isn't someone just as good as Parada available at pick 5 this summer? Interesting idea, though.

Jorge Polanco was suspended in 2018, not injured. He had never spent a day on the IL before 2022. He's not a guy you should point to of an injury risk. A guy not hitting the IL once until his 9th year is most certainly not someone "with bad legs."

A couple things with this chart. 1- You're looking at the wrong Lopez. Who you have is Jorge Lopez and we're talking about Pablo Lopez. 2- The 2020 stats render the "Avg" column completely useless if you're attempting to see how close to a "full season" (32ish starts) they get since it was literally impossible for any of them to make 32 starts in a season of only 60 games. So if you want to see how many starts they tend to get in a full year (since 2020 apparently) the numbers are: Gray: 25 Maeda: 11 Ober: 16 Mahle: 28 Ryan: 25 Lopez (Pablo, not Jorge): 26

I don't disagree with any of that. I'm not pushing for Farmer to be an OF regular, just saying him being able to play out there as well would be a nice addition of flexibility early in the year. I expect (hope?) Martin is the righty OF/IF utility guy after a couple months of the season (with Lewis the option in July and beyond). There's a lot of variables in all of this. I prefer Garlick never wears a Twins jersey again (just not a fan of players who only bring hitting lefties, no speed, no defense to the table) so like Farmer as a possible option there. Like if injuries dictate a callup and Julien is tearing the cover off the ball in St Paul I'd rather have him be the one who crosses the river if Farmer can play OF and it doesn't dictate a Garlick move simply because he's RH and "plays" OF. Farmer being able to take a corner OF spot when needed just adds flexibility and allows them to use the best players and not be as limited on who you can possibly put on the field. If you're not a locked in, everyday starter (Correa, Polanco, Buxton, Miranda, peak Kirilloff types) I prefer having guys who can move around.

If Farmer can play the corner outfield that'd be huge. Like the article says, he doesn't even have to play it that well to be a useful replacement for Garlick. Farmer is a couple steps faster than Garlick, and Garlick was horrible in the field so the bar is not high. His bat against lefties is just as potent, but his OPS against righties is 70 points higher. Not a huge jump, but he's not completely useless against righties like Garlick. I'd even think Farmer would be happy to give the OF a shot in spring since it'd open up significantly more playing time opportunities. He's not replacing Correa, Miranda, or Polanco except on rest days. His best chance for playing time is to replace a lefty against lefties. Those opportunities are in the corner OF and 1B. Being able to play the corner OF would put him in the lineup against every lefty starter, and open in game pinch hitting opportunities when lefty relievers come in. Being able to keep Garlick in AAA, and not on the 40-man, to start the year would be really nice. Same with Celestino (he'd still be on the 40-man, but in AAA). Farmer holding down the RH cOF spot until Lewis or Martin are ready would allow them to never have to put Garlick back on a major league field. That'd make me happy. He's fine as injury emergency guy in AAA, not on the 40-man. I hope he stays in that role because Farmer can bridge to Lewis and/or Martin.

I'm curious about this. I agree that where they play isn't really relevant in a vacuum, but is your goal simply to have an even number of righties and lefties in the lineup every day (plus the SH Polanco) no matter who the starter for the other team is, or what their bullpen makeup is like?

Me knowing it was Ryan allowed me to know his starts were low because he debuted 2 years later, and missed time with covid as opposed to injuries like I know Lopez has struggled with before last year. So not exactly a blind ranking for me.

I'd go 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6. But I also know who the guys are so am fighting a little extra bias. Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober. I'm into WHIP and SO9, but also like the ERA+ to give me a bit better idea of a comparison of where the ERAs were at with regard to the environment they pitched in. The rotation (+Lopez) is truly Gray and a bunch of the same guy. It's why I'm not excited about a potential Lopez trade. He's not a ceiling raiser. He's the same guy (with lower Ks) than the other 4 dudes we already have after Gray.

In what way does Lopez "simply rate higher than any current Twins starter?" Here's stats from 2019-2022 for 6 starters (Twins likely starting 5 currently, plus Lopez). How would you rank them? Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9, 7.8 bWAR Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9, 12.6 bWAR Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9, 3.3 bWAR Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9, 8.7 bWAR Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9, 2.6 bWAR Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9, 2.1 bWAR

If Arraez can help net a frontline starter it's a deal you have to do. If Arraez can't get you any better than Pablo Lopez it's a deal you can't do. That seems to be the Twins thoughts on things so I have faith this saga will play out in a reasonable way. I have been surprised before, though. But if they stick to that thought process I'm happy.

Pagan for Adell? Done and done. Alexy, Sands, Celestino, Gallo, Kepler. If one of those 6 guys can fetch you Adell (plus a flier for someone like Gallo or Kepler) then I'd do it. My concern with Adell is that, despite top of the charts speed, he's a terrible defender. The combination of power and speed is definitely an intriguing one for special upside. But if you can't develop the hit and field tools you end up with Lewis Brinson, Keon Broxton, or any of the other guys who could run real fast and hit the ball real far, but couldn't play baseball. Since Adell requires a 40-man spot it limits my desire for him. But there's worst things to go after than sky high potential.

To me, Kepler and Larnach would be a massive overpay for Lopez. With the Yankees turning down sending Gleyber Torres to Miami in exchange for Lopez last year we know at least 1 team didn't find him worthy of a guy who's had 4.9 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR from 2020-2022. Max Kepler has had 5.2 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR from 2020-2022. Torres and Kepler, like Lopez, have 2 years of team control left. Torres will be paid either 10.2 or 9.7 million next year depending on how his arbitration hearing goes. Max Kepler will make 8.5. Torres will get a raise on that 2023 contract in his last year of arbitration in 2024 while Max will be on a 10 million team option. Torres is younger than Max, and had a better year last year, but I don't know why we should think Lopez is worth much more than Kepler at all. We have real world evidence that the league doesn't seem to think he's worth more than that. Edited to add: And after the Yankees turned down that trade Lopez went on to have 2 really bad months with a 4.61 ERA in August, and 4.24 in September. His value certainly didn't go up after that trade was turned down. Oh, and his ERAs in June and July were 5.34 and 4.65. He's simply not a great pitcher. Thus I'd put him 5th in our current rotation simply because Ober can't stay healthy.

Kepler and Nowlin (or someone else in that 20-30 organizational prospect range) would be my offer for Lopez. I wouldn't go any higher than that. I think Lopez would be the Twins #5 starter this year, and only higher than Ober because I don't trust Ober to throw more than 100 innings. Cabrera or Luzardo? I'd deal Arraez+others for them. They have real upside and real control left. Not sure exactly what kind of package I'd be willing to ship out for them (I wouldn't trade Lewis, Lee, or Rodriguez for them), but I'd certainly be open to a package centered around Arraez and Martin for someone with their frontline potential and team control.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions "Miami reportedly asked about outfielder Max Kepler or infielder Luis Arraez in return." Interesting quote in here for everyone claiming Kepler has no value and/or Lopez is some super expensive piece the Twins would need to trade young, high-end prospects for.

Really like this deal. Hopefully Paddack is on a rehab assignment by about July and can be a long relief guy for the Twins to end the season and start knocking the rust off. Then in 2024 he would have a real shot at claiming a rotation spot in ST.

Fyi, he's on the 40-man so no invite needed. He'll already be there.

Agree to disagree on Torres. You named a whole bunch of numbers from pre-2020 Torres. He has a 104 OPS+ since 2020. 4.9 total bWAR since then. Gleyber Torres is nowhere near the player you're trying to suggest he is. He was moved to 2B because he can't play SS. He had 2.7 fWAR in 2022. Gordon had 1.5. Torres has 4.3 fWAR since 2020. That's a 1.4 WAR player. Again, Gordon had 1.5 last year. And Gordon has 5 years of control left. Your OPS numbers are just factually incorrect. He's never had an OPS over 1.000 in any season. Never. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 3 minor league games in 2021 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .697 OPS in 127 games in the majors that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 for 7 games in low A in 2014 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .826 OPS in rookie and low A combined that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 18 AFL games in 2016 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .775 OPS that year in high A. He's also never had an OPS over .900 for a season. I mean you're flat out making stuff up. In 2018 he had a .903 OPS in 17 games between high A and AAA during a rehab stint. He had an OPS of .820 in 123 MLB games that year. Since 2019, both of their career years, Max Kepler has more bWAR, and is only 6 points of OPS+ lower than Torres. Kepler had 2.0 fWAR last year. He's had 5.4 since 2020. That's 1.8 per season. And people are screaming that he needs to get traded cuz he's basically useless on a playoff hopeful team. He's been better than Torres for the last 3 years. So, yeah, I'm going to stick with Torres not being any sort of star, and Lopez not being all that expensive of a commodity.

Multiple reports that there was a deal the Yankees turned down at the deadline last year. It was Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Cabrera is an ok, not great prospect who was MLB ready. Rojas was just traded for Jacob Amaya. Amaya is an ok, not great prospect who is ready. So the Marlins felt Lopez was worth Gleyber Torres. The Yankees thought Lopez was worth less than Gleyber Torres. Gleyber Torres may be a "big name" because he played in NY, but he's not some star. Torres had a 114 OPS+ last year. Nick Gordon was at 113. Pablo Lopez then went on to have an ERA of 4.61 in August and 4.24 in September. He's now got less team control than he did at the deadline, and Gordon has much more than Torres. I don't get why people think Lopez is some high priced commodity. He's not.

Ok? I mean I literally gave you the stats. League average for a runner on 3B with less than 2 outs scoring was 50.9% last year. The Twins scored them 52.6% of the time. Only 8 MLB teams scored them at a higher rate than the Twins. Your eye test is emotional. Them not scoring those guys is frustrating. So your brain logs those frustrations and gives them higher priority than the times where they do score the run because your expectation is that they score the run so there's not as strong of an emotional response as the frustrations of them not scoring. It's why teams use stats on things like this and not an eye test. In 2022 the Twins had 287 runners on 3B with less than 2 outs. 151 of them scored. I mean if your point is simply that they don't score them when there's 0 outs that feels a little narrow of a stat to care about. If the point is about the runner scoring at all then the Twins were above average at it whether your eyes believe it or not. It's definable and a fact.

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

That's why I said they wouldn't do it for him straight up or anything. But the idea that he can't be part of a trade package, and they wouldn't find any value in him, is wrong. Especially when you're talking about Pablo Lopez who has no more control than Kepler does. They were willing to trade Lopez for Gleyber Torres last year (NY turned them down). Torres is younger than Kepler, but has no more control than Kepler. And hasn't really been much more productive than Kepler since 2018. Or even just since 2020 if you want to cut Kepler's 2019 season out. Torres is a better asset, but not dramatically so.

I don't know where the league is at in terms of waiver claims made recently so don't know where the Marlins fit in on the NL side, but they're no better than 15th in line for Garlick. If they want him (not saying they do, but if they do) they have to decide if they're willing to risk the Twins not trading him before he even hits waivers, and then hope the 14 other AL teams don't want him either. They'd give up a trade asset for Kepler because he's better than most of their current outfielders. The Marlins have no fewer than 8 MLB ready arms for their rotation. Alcantara, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett, Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, and Sanchez. And that's not counting Max Meyer who will miss most, if not all, of the season with TJ recovery. They have holes in their lineup. They play in a division with 3 teams who show no sign of being bad in the next 6 years. That means by the time they've run out of control on all of their 8/9 arms they'll still be in a division that's super hard to win. How slow do you believe they should be with trying to win? When will they be "on the cusp of winning?" I'm not suggesting the Marlins are tripping over themselves to get Kepler, but acting like he has no value to the Marlins is also too extreme. Jazz Chisolm and Jon Berti were the only players on the Marlins with more fWAR than Kepler last year (didn't look up bWAR). They had 6 guys with a better wRC+ than him. Only 2 of them even played 100 games last year. And only 1 of them had even 400 PAs. Jesus Aguilar lead their team in HRs...at 15. They had 5 guys even get to double digit HRs. I'm not suggesting the Marlins would trade any of their pitchers straight up for Kepler, but they're brutally awful on offense and have the deepest starting staff in baseball. Kepler would 100% make their offense better while also improving their defense. If Miami's not trying to win with this rotation they need to contract the team. Arraez would certainly be their preferred target from MN, but acting like Kepler wouldn't interest them at all feels extreme.

I'd be really surprised, and pretty disappointed, if they DFAed Moran. He had a better K/9 than Duran last year. In 40.2 innings (not huge sample size, but not nothing) he had an 11.95 K/9, 2.21 ERA, 1.78 FIP, .9 fWAR, and gave up 0 HRs. I'm not putting him in the closers role, but for the league minimum, and with option years left, I'm keeping that guy around. For reference Duran's numbers were 67.2 IP, 11.84 K/9, 1.86 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 1.5 fWAR, and 6 HRs given up.

To be fair, the Twins were 9th in baseball in driving in runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs last year. About 2% above league average. They were almost 2% below average in 2021, though. They went from 48.2% in 2021 to 52.6% in 2022.