chpettit19

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point. It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

I'd guess the extra $65 million he got from the Giants played a pretty big role...

No, he doesn't get tall guy points. And if he does, they're only slightly more for being 6'5" than Kepler gets for being 6'4". He's much like Kepler in that he takes very good routes with his less than top end speed and is able to contort his body in ways that allow him to make some very nice diving catches. He's got a stronger arm than Kepler, but otherwise they're very much the same type of defender. If you like 6'4" Kepler and the way he defends you'll like the 6'5" Gallo and the way he defends.

You can't compare pre-arb and arb years to the free agent market. The arbitration system is literally designed to pay people less than they're worth. The fact that he's making $1 million more than last year, and that 1 WAR is going for a bout $10 million on the market this year, says that deal wasn't too outrageous. Even if I wouldn't have given him 11 (I was on record literally minutes before he signed saying I'd take him for less than 10). They're basically betting he's somewhere between his Texas self and his NY/LA self and is worth about 1.1 WAR in 2023.

I'd love to do a comparison between these 2 players and their chances of helping the 2023 MN Twins, thank you! JD Martinez OPS+ his last full 4 seasons: 173, 139, 128, 117 JD Martinez wRC+ his last full 4 season: 170, 139, 127, 119 JD Martinez HRs his last full 4 seasons: 43, 26, 28, 16 I think it's pretty fair to say he's in decline. If he keeps at his current pace he'll be around 105/106 in OPS+ or wRC+ in 2023, with maybe double digit HRs. So, ever so slightly better than a league average hitter with no real power, and no speed. As a DH only. Which means he has negative defensive value. I've already done the Gallo stats multiple times so I'll save some space on him. 17% better than league average over his time in Texas. Way below league average in his time in NY and LA. Career fWAR for Martinez: 26.5 in 12 seasons, 1409 games Career fWAR for Gallo: 15.1 in 8 seasons, 752 games (he only played 53 games combined his first 2 years as he was breaking into the bigs) Career bWAR for Martinez: 27.9 Career bWAR for Gallo: 14.7 Martinez: 2.2 fWAR per season, .02 per game. 2.3 bWAR per season, .02 per game Gallo: 1.9 fWAR per season, .02 per game, 1.8 bWAR per season, .02 per game It's almost like Gallo's defense meant a little and he isn't 100% relying on his bat to provide value to a team. And if you do their WAR starting in their first full season it's JD with 27.5 bWAR in 11 seasons (2.5 per), 25.4 fWAR (2.3 per). And Gallo at 14.8 bWAR in 6 seasons (2.5 per), 15.2 fWAR (2.5 per). But that can't be right. JD is so clearly better at batting average so he's got to have been way more valuable. But that says overall they've both been 2.5 win players over their careers. Analytics ruining the game again! Nobody can argue Martinez had a significantly better bat. He's been one of the best hitters in all of baseball for the last 8 years. But he's not that guy anymore. Expecting him to be much more than league average with the bat in 2023 would be quite the gamble. And the batter's box is quite literally the only place he provides any sort of value to a team. The Gallo situation remains the same. If he's Texas Gallo he can provide a great deal of value. If he's NY or LA Gallo they just set $11 million on fire. He was Texas Gallo for way longer than he was NY or LA Gallo, and he'll be 29 all of next season, not 36. I'd say that gives him a slightly better chance of bouncing back than JD suddenly turning back into 2018 JD. I'm sorry I'm not interested in the name recognition of JD Martinez as a righty bench bat for $10 million. Or do you want to lock up the DH spot every day for a league average hitter? You said Gallo wasn't "good to great" during his 2017 to 2021 stretch in Texas. His numbers then were better than would be reasonable to assume JD will have in 2023. So which is it? Are those numbers good or not? Joey Gallo is never going to be a high BA guy. That's not fun to watch, and is extremely frustrating. I agree. I've said many times on these boards that I dislike the 3 true outcome style of play. I've said many times over the last couple days that I wouldn't have given Gallo $11 million. But modern baseball believes you can have a guy or 2 like Gallo in your lineup and succeed. They believe the HRs outweigh the BA and Ks. He's also one of the better corner outfield defenders in baseball. I wouldn't give Gallo $11 million, but I'd take his defense and upside over JD's DH only, league average bat for $10 million. Even if JD hits .280 and Gallo hits .200. I know BA is still a massive sticking point with people, and JD's name is a lot more prestigious. But if the discussion is truly about who has the better chance to provide overall value to the 2023 MN Twins, it's a really easy decision for me. Gallo has the much better chance because he plays defense and it's a question of a 1 year drop verse a 3 year steady decline of a 36 year old. I don't want a lineup full of Gallo/Sano types, but I'm ok with 1 in the lineup, especially if they play gold glove defense and have hit 40 homeruns in a season twice (with another season of 38).

Martinez had a 117 OPS+ and 119 wRC+ last year. You were quite clear that that isn't good enough for Gallo to be considered good while he was in Texas also winning gold gloves. Is it just the right handedness that makes JD the better add despite you not feeling those batting numbers are good and him being a DH only at this point in his career? Yes, I'm just being sarcastic. Neither guy would've been a top choice for me. But if we're going to say Gallo has never had sustained success in the majors that would lead to any hope at all of him being serviceable (and there's literally hundreds of comments over the last 24 hours suggesting exactly that) we shouldn't be sad when we don't sign a guy who put up the same types of numbers. At this point it's simply "we don't like low BA, high power batters and that's that." Which is fine. But let's at least admit that the baseball industry is more than ok with low BA, high power batters, and that we simply don't like the modern game.

I was kidding, yes. I was being sarcastic by calling out the specificity of being down 5-3 in the ninth, etc. Look, I know you don't like Gallo. I get it. You hate this move unless he hits .230 with 35 homers. We'll agree to disagree on this deal at this time and just move forward.

Do you have a list of current Twins players and current players available to the Twins who's numbers in that situation you know are better? What are Kepler's numbers in those situations? I honestly don't know. But he's likely the guy Gallo is replacing so I'd think he'd be most relevant. I don't want Kepler up in those spots either cuz he simply isn't a very good hitter. Actually, there's very few hitters on the Twins I'd want up in those spots because most of them just aren't very good hitters. That's why I don't love this deal, but also don't hate it. You have the numbers of the Astros players that just won a World Series? Is their entire lineup significantly better than Gallo in those situations, or do they have players who also struggle there but are good at other things? I'm not going to get into a big back and forth here. I don't love this deal. I'm willing to wait and see what other moves are made before I condemn the FO for this move because Joey Gallo has had more major league success than all but a few players currently on the Twins 40-man. I don't like the 3 true outcome players. I don't like the FO right now because they sat around waiting for Correa when they were never going to offer him a realistic deal and missed on numerous other players they could've afforded. But being upset with them in general isn't enough for me to look at this deal in a vacuum and not as part of the offseason as a whole. They've got a lot of work to do to improve this team, and I doubt they'll be able to do enough. But I'll at least wait and see what else they do before going crazy over this 1 deal.

Why? What are his career numbers when down 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth?

That's a whole different conversation that this post isn't about, and we don't need another post that turns into just ranting about the FO so let's just keep it to Gallo and the topic of the original article, please.

Yeah, just going to have to agree to disagree that a 117 wRC+ makes an offense worse. If he returns to his Texas self from those 4 years he makes the team better whether you like his style of hitting or not. If he's his NY or LA self he doesn't.

And that's all well and good, but there's very few people here who are saying he's bad because of his situational hitting. Let's not pretend that's what these complaints are about. And my comment was very directly a response to chief's comment that Gallo wasn't good for those 4 years, but instead just half a season. People can still be mad at the signing without pretending he wasn't a significantly above average hitter over a 4 year period of time.

Is it my turn to tell you to stop? He's got 2 gold gloves and is widely known around the league as a great defender. But we'll just focus on the offensive numbers from 2017-2021 where Nick claims he was good to great, and you claim he was good to great for half of 1 season. He was tied for 72nd in baseball with a 117 wRC+ for those 4 combined seasons. During that same time frame the Twins had exactly 2 hitters with 117 or better wRC+ (Garver 123 and Cruz 157). During those 4 seasons he accumulated 14.4 fWAR. That tied him for 40th in baseball for those 4 years. The Twins top WAR producer during that time was Buxton who accumulated 12.1 fWAR. In those 4 years he was 56th in baseball in OPS at .834. 1 spot behind Garver who was at .835. Cruz and his .984 was the only other Twin above him. That must have been one heck of a half-season to get him into those rankings in the entire sport over a 4 year span. Like the best half season ever probably.

I know these articles are queued up in advance, and released at certain times despite having been written well in advance, but nearly every article released in the last week has had a free agent rumor in it that had already been completed. Rodon being the example here. Getting to be a bit ridiculous at this point. I wouldn't think it's too hard to go back and take those things out after they happen. It's not like there wasn't plenty of time to edit this article since Rodon was off the board on Thursday.

Do walks not count? Aren't people on these boards during every game complaining that the Twins don't work the count, walk, or get on base enough? His OPS in Texas was .833 for his 6+ seasons, and over 2000 PAs, there. That would've put him 20th in baseball in 2022, tied with Xander Bogaerts who just got significantly more than $11 million. Maybe top 20 isn't "elite," but it feels awfully close. But, again, for the 1 millionth time, I'm not suggesting Joey Gallo is going to come in and be the 20th best hitter in baseball in 2023. I'm simply pointing out that when he was in Texas he showed more upside than any bat in the Twins lineup not named Buxton. Jorge Polanco has a career OPS of .779. .833 is slightly higher than that, no? In fact, Polanco only OPS'd above .833 1 time in his career (2019). He's a frustrating guy to watch with the Ks and BA. No doubt. Not a huge fan of that. But suggesting that he has no upside is ignoring a whole lot of previous upside. He was awful in NY and LA. Is that because he's fallen off a cliff and is Chris Davis now? Or is that because he couldn't handle the pressure there? The former means this is going to be an awful signing and he's hopefully DFA'd by June. The latter means he's at least useful during 1 regular season, and could possibly then be flipped at the deadline if he's back to OPSing .800+. If you care about how someone gets their OPS you may not like him because of the lack of BA. If all you care about is that they get their OPS then .833 should be a little intriguing.

Thus I don't love the move. I've said over and over that I don't love the move. It's not a move that I would've made. I just think the reactions here are way more negative than they should be. Kepler's 2.1 bWAR is all defense. And defensive stats aren't something I care about because they're super unreliable. As shown a few comments up where another poster points out how low Gallo's OAA was during the 2016-2022 stretch and I counter with him being much better than Kepler in the same stretch according to the fielding bible. I don't want Kepler or Gallo. But I also don't want the jobs just handed to the young guys who haven't been great when they were healthy (Larnach has a ton to prove still. Like if he can hit off speed pitches at all, that wasn't a health thing), and Wallner's career ceiling is Gallo-esque, but I'm not banking on him jumping straight into the majors and doing that as a rookie who the league now has some tape on and will have a gameplan for him to start the year. Yes, a right handed bat would've been much better. Unfortunately there's not a whole lot of that left. It's why I was so upset to see the Twins wasted 2 months offering Correa 285 when they should've moved on and signed realistic targets like Mitch Haniger. I'm not telling people to like the move. I've said over and over that I don't love it. I'm just saying we're seeing the same overreaction that we do to almost every individual move. People freaked out like this over Beckham signing a minor league deal last year. Joey Gallo isn't the answer. I've said that over and over. This isn't some huge win. I graded it a C in the poll that's up. It's not a needle mover either direction. He's a nice insurance piece for after they trade Kepler which has felt like a foregone conclusion for weeks. It's not outrageous to think he's one of the guys who struggles under the bright lights of NY and LA (which is why I'm glad it's a 1 year deal, because that means he's probably not great in the playoffs and I don't want him around as part of the big picture plan) and will be back closer to his Texas self now that he's in a low/no-pressure situation. Comparing Gallo's salary to his pre-arb and arb years is disingenuous. Those weren't market rates. I said before he signed yesterday that I'd be open to bringing him in for less than 10 million if they traded Kepler. So 11 is higher than I'd like. But Bellinger has been nearly unplayable for 2 years in LA and he just got 17.5 guaranteed. This is the price of doing business on the open market. We need to stop being shocked that it costs more to sign free agents. That's just how it works.

Fielding Bible has Gallo at 42 DRS and Kepler at 48 since 2016. And that's with Kepler having 6700 innings to Gallo's 4116. Gallo with an OF Arm score of 24 to Kepler's 4. Gallo has 2 gold gloves if you care about such things. Gallo has long been considered an elite defender with an elite arm. He's every bit the defender Kepler is.

Oh, he's towards the front of their depth. Like 2nd best outfielder they have. He was brutal in NY and LA. No doubt about it. But he was a star in Texas. I don't love the move. My entire point is that it's crazy that so many people are acting like Gallo has no upside and we should just be clearing the way for the young players while ignoring the real possibility that the young players have no upside. I get it, the Ks are brutal. Not fun to watch. But he's a better defender than every one of the young guys, and it's not particularly close. He's shown, in 2 of the last 3 full seasons, that he can be an elite bat, even with the Ks. That's 2 more seasons than all the young guys combined have shown. Larnach and Kirilloff have had 2 seasons to show they can stay healthy and produce. They've failed both times (not blaming them, but let's not stick our heads in the sand and act like they're more than they are right now). Gordon has had 2 years to stay healthy and produce, and he's done it for half a year. Wallner is a 25 year old rookie who's a terrible defender, and his offensive ceiling is a poor man's Joey Gallo. Kepler is just a different version of Gallo. Elite defender with severely flawed bat (just different flaws). So, again, I don't love the move. It doesn't make them contenders suddenly. All I'm doing is trying to provide a little perspective on the situation. Yes, he was brutal last year, but so was Bellinger (he's actually been brutal for 2 years), and he got 17.5 million (minimum when you account for the 5.5 buyout). People need to get over their sticker shock. Either accept that free agents are more expensive than you'd like or stop asking for free agents to be signed. Free agents are expensive. The young guys don't deserve jobs being handed to them (unless you're asking for a rebuild, in which case you should be asking for trades of all the 1 year contract veterans). Joey Gallo is a 2 time all star and 2 time gold glove winner in 2 of the last 3 full seasons. None of that means we should be jumping for joy or the offseason is suddenly great, but suggesting it's unthinkable to pay someone with his proven upside 11 million for 1 year doesn't make sense to me. He's been a star in this league before. Something very few other guys on the roster can say.

Last deadline, as in trade deadline. They felt like they had a plan with bringing in arms and executed it pretty well, in my opinion. I was hoping that would then bleed into this offseason.

bWAR 2020- 1.6, 2021- 4.7 fWAR 2020- 1, 2021- 4.2

5 WAR from Kepler?! His career best year was 4. He topped 3 one other time. He's a 2 WAR player, but you think a handful of ground balls sneaking through the right side is going to make him a 5 WAR player?! That's quite the stretch.

Soft contact, leading to lots of pop ups to the outfield or grounders to second, is what the batted ball data says Kepler's problem is.

They've tried biting the bullet for 2 years now and it hasn't worked. That's why they still have so many holes on the roster. Had Larnach stayed healthy and produced in 2021 there'd be no thought of Gallo. Or if Larnach had stayed healthy and produced in 2022 there'd be no thought of Gallo. But he didn't. Either year. How many years are we biting this bullet and seeing what Larnach can do to stay healthy and produce? Again, I don't like the deal and it doesn't at all make this offseason successful. Simply pointing out that Gallo is a multi-time all star and gold glove winner and people are acting like the Twins just signed one of us. He's not a problem solver. He's simply more depth. He better not be their last move. But he's better than plenty of guys on the 40-man so the team is better today than it was yesterday. Projections are trash. I've looked at them. The Twins aren't hopping on fangraphs and saying "well dang, Gallo is only projected for 1.2 WAR this year, waste of time."

I don't care about projections. They're trash. I didn't say it was a good deal, or one they should've done. Simply pointed out that Gallo has had a better career than Kepler in the same number of years. They're not "blocking" the youth because the youth can't stay on the field. Larnach isn't blocked by anyone but himself and his inability to play for more than 2 months at a time. Same with Kirilloff. Wallner is incredibly unproven, and a terrible defender. If Gallo is the best player they're bringing in they shouldn't be bringing in outside guys. But we also need to stop acting like the young players on the Twins 40-man have earned starting spots on a major league team. They haven't. Hoping on the youth is no better than hoping on Gallo bouncing back. He's at least shown he's physically capable of being an elite major league hitter. I wouldn't want to bet on him getting back to his 2019 or 2021 self, but at least he had a 2019 and 2021 self while Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon haven't even been close. And none are as good defensively as him. I don't like the move, but let's stop acting like these young guys are more than they are to this point. Gallo is a 2 time all star and gold glove winner in the last 3 full seasons. The youth can only hope to achieve those things.

To be fair, he is the defender Kepler is. It's a wash defensively. He's elite. It's probably a wash offensively as well assuming he bounces back at all. Career numbers are on Gallo's side, but mostly just because his ups were higher. Both debuted in 2015. Gallo with .199/.325/.469/.794 slash line. Kepler .232/.317/.427/.744. Kepler for Gallo swap is pretty neutral overall, really.