chpettit19

Not sure travel/weather is a believable excuse 3 hrs before the press conference is set to start.

Why would this cause them to have buyer's remorse on Gallo? They were supposed to expect Correa to fail a physical so they can get back in on Correa now that he'll be cheaper since he couldn't pass the physical? If the Giants don't sign him at the agreed to deal they're either completely out on him, in which case the Twins should likely be, too, or they'll be in on him for much cheaper, in which case the 1 year deal for Gallo really shouldn't have anything to do with agreeing to pay Correa on a cheaper, long-term deal.

Correct. Swanson has agreed to his deal. But he just got married (last Saturday if memory serves) so he hasn't been in for his official physical and signing yet. But he's going to the Cubs barring any unforeseen health issues.

It is certainly a very interesting situation. I hope it's nothing serious and he's able to get his deal done (even though I wanted the Twins to bring him back). I'd be shocked if it's the Giants playing games and trying to reduce his price tag in anyway.

Any sort of degenerative disorder that would lead them to worry that his career will be nowhere as long as they'd expected.

Swanson hasn't signed. Because he hasn't done his physical. There's a difference between just getting general medical reports and doing their physical before signing their deal. It can take this long to get the physical done because Correa was busy with his life and this was the first time he could get to San Fran to have the team doctors check him out. Or maybe the lead doctor was on vacation and just got back to town. PA has nothing to get involved with. His deal, like every other one in every major sport, is based on passing a physical. He apparently might not have passed his. But this is all standard stuff. The announcement of an agreement (even in trades) is not the same as the player actually signing their deal. The Twins just signed Joey Gallo today even though we all knew they'd agreed to terms last week. He just got here to take his physical.

I think the plan is Farmer as the fulltime shortstop, but if Martin tears it up in St Paul for the first month, and they have him playing SS there, it'll be interesting to see if he becomes an option to spell Farmer. I'd guess at this point Gordon is the primary backup to Farmer. But the Twins have been real stubborn about playing Martin at short.

Based on what metric? Those are their career numbers. Not seeing a single one that suggests Adrianza wasn't "much worse than Correa." There's the top 25 shortstops, with at least 250 PAs, in baseball last year by wRC+. Ehire's career best year was 2019 with the Twins when he had a 102 wRC+ in 84 games. He was at 95 wRC+ in 109 games in 2021. Never topped 90 in any other season. Not wanting to pay Correa $35 million a year, or even 25 a year, is a reasonable take. But suggesting he's not night and day better than Ehire Adrianza is pretty far fetched.

I was simply providing you with information. Didn't make any comment on what that information meant, or how you should take it. Your information was incorrect so I thought I'd give you the correct information for your own knowledge. You're free to do whatever you want with that information. Getting upset about receiving information is an interesting response, though.

I feel like I'm coming across as loving this signing or something when all I'm trying to do is show that he was a really good player just 2 years ago. I don't love the deal, but this idea that he's been useless his whole career simply isn't correct. Gallo was 10th in baseball in HRs in 2021. Right alongside names like Judge (39), Olson (39), Devers (38), Ramirez (36), Alonso (37), Stanton (35), Harper (35). I know that doesn't make up for all the Ks, and the walks don't make up for the low BA, but top 10 in HRs, and gold glove defense, is something it's ok to give him credit for.

In 2021? Here's league HR totals for 2016-2022 by year, skipping 2020. 2016- 5610 2017- 6105 2018- 5585 2019- 6776 2021- 5944 2022- 5215 I don't think 2021 is too far outside the norm there. He was tied for 10th in baseball in homeruns that year. I don't know that "everyone hit HRs that year" is really fair as a dismissal of being 10th in baseball in HRs in a season that didn't even top 2017's league HR total.

I think Gordon settles in as the super-utility player for the Twins moving forward. Getting nearly a starter's workload (assuming his own health) by bouncing between 4 or 5 spots (3 OF spots, and 2B/SS). That's a really nice development from how things were looking with him a few years ago. I don't think he gets significantly better, and thus isn't a guy I'd want penned in as "the guy" at any position, but he can provide a great deal of value by being the super-utility guy on a competitive team.

FYI, Max Kepler is making $8.5 million in 2023.

Looking at that roster I'd say their floor is pretty well set. 75-80 wins. I don't know how they plan to raise their ceiling from 80-85 wins to 90-95 wins, though. Going to need to be some creative trades, that don't include any of their top prospects. Hope they have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Well that settles it.

I hope nobody was just watching MLB Network. JP Morosi, Matt Vasgersian, and Harold Reynolds just gave their predictions for Gallo's BA/HR/RBI totals for 2023. .230/30+/80+ was more or less the prediction. They were all big believers in his exit velo on the pull side leading to a jump in BA with the new shift rule. I'm sure they're just Twins apologists so are being biased.

He hit 38 in 2021. That was 2 years ago. Not saying we should expect 40 homeruns, but he was not a juiced ball product, and was hitting for extreme power just 2 years ago.

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point. It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

I'd guess the extra $65 million he got from the Giants played a pretty big role...

No, he doesn't get tall guy points. And if he does, they're only slightly more for being 6'5" than Kepler gets for being 6'4". He's much like Kepler in that he takes very good routes with his less than top end speed and is able to contort his body in ways that allow him to make some very nice diving catches. He's got a stronger arm than Kepler, but otherwise they're very much the same type of defender. If you like 6'4" Kepler and the way he defends you'll like the 6'5" Gallo and the way he defends.

You can't compare pre-arb and arb years to the free agent market. The arbitration system is literally designed to pay people less than they're worth. The fact that he's making $1 million more than last year, and that 1 WAR is going for a bout $10 million on the market this year, says that deal wasn't too outrageous. Even if I wouldn't have given him 11 (I was on record literally minutes before he signed saying I'd take him for less than 10). They're basically betting he's somewhere between his Texas self and his NY/LA self and is worth about 1.1 WAR in 2023.

I'd love to do a comparison between these 2 players and their chances of helping the 2023 MN Twins, thank you! JD Martinez OPS+ his last full 4 seasons: 173, 139, 128, 117 JD Martinez wRC+ his last full 4 season: 170, 139, 127, 119 JD Martinez HRs his last full 4 seasons: 43, 26, 28, 16 I think it's pretty fair to say he's in decline. If he keeps at his current pace he'll be around 105/106 in OPS+ or wRC+ in 2023, with maybe double digit HRs. So, ever so slightly better than a league average hitter with no real power, and no speed. As a DH only. Which means he has negative defensive value. I've already done the Gallo stats multiple times so I'll save some space on him. 17% better than league average over his time in Texas. Way below league average in his time in NY and LA. Career fWAR for Martinez: 26.5 in 12 seasons, 1409 games Career fWAR for Gallo: 15.1 in 8 seasons, 752 games (he only played 53 games combined his first 2 years as he was breaking into the bigs) Career bWAR for Martinez: 27.9 Career bWAR for Gallo: 14.7 Martinez: 2.2 fWAR per season, .02 per game. 2.3 bWAR per season, .02 per game Gallo: 1.9 fWAR per season, .02 per game, 1.8 bWAR per season, .02 per game It's almost like Gallo's defense meant a little and he isn't 100% relying on his bat to provide value to a team. And if you do their WAR starting in their first full season it's JD with 27.5 bWAR in 11 seasons (2.5 per), 25.4 fWAR (2.3 per). And Gallo at 14.8 bWAR in 6 seasons (2.5 per), 15.2 fWAR (2.5 per). But that can't be right. JD is so clearly better at batting average so he's got to have been way more valuable. But that says overall they've both been 2.5 win players over their careers. Analytics ruining the game again! Nobody can argue Martinez had a significantly better bat. He's been one of the best hitters in all of baseball for the last 8 years. But he's not that guy anymore. Expecting him to be much more than league average with the bat in 2023 would be quite the gamble. And the batter's box is quite literally the only place he provides any sort of value to a team. The Gallo situation remains the same. If he's Texas Gallo he can provide a great deal of value. If he's NY or LA Gallo they just set $11 million on fire. He was Texas Gallo for way longer than he was NY or LA Gallo, and he'll be 29 all of next season, not 36. I'd say that gives him a slightly better chance of bouncing back than JD suddenly turning back into 2018 JD. I'm sorry I'm not interested in the name recognition of JD Martinez as a righty bench bat for $10 million. Or do you want to lock up the DH spot every day for a league average hitter? You said Gallo wasn't "good to great" during his 2017 to 2021 stretch in Texas. His numbers then were better than would be reasonable to assume JD will have in 2023. So which is it? Are those numbers good or not? Joey Gallo is never going to be a high BA guy. That's not fun to watch, and is extremely frustrating. I agree. I've said many times on these boards that I dislike the 3 true outcome style of play. I've said many times over the last couple days that I wouldn't have given Gallo $11 million. But modern baseball believes you can have a guy or 2 like Gallo in your lineup and succeed. They believe the HRs outweigh the BA and Ks. He's also one of the better corner outfield defenders in baseball. I wouldn't give Gallo $11 million, but I'd take his defense and upside over JD's DH only, league average bat for $10 million. Even if JD hits .280 and Gallo hits .200. I know BA is still a massive sticking point with people, and JD's name is a lot more prestigious. But if the discussion is truly about who has the better chance to provide overall value to the 2023 MN Twins, it's a really easy decision for me. Gallo has the much better chance because he plays defense and it's a question of a 1 year drop verse a 3 year steady decline of a 36 year old. I don't want a lineup full of Gallo/Sano types, but I'm ok with 1 in the lineup, especially if they play gold glove defense and have hit 40 homeruns in a season twice (with another season of 38).

Martinez had a 117 OPS+ and 119 wRC+ last year. You were quite clear that that isn't good enough for Gallo to be considered good while he was in Texas also winning gold gloves. Is it just the right handedness that makes JD the better add despite you not feeling those batting numbers are good and him being a DH only at this point in his career? Yes, I'm just being sarcastic. Neither guy would've been a top choice for me. But if we're going to say Gallo has never had sustained success in the majors that would lead to any hope at all of him being serviceable (and there's literally hundreds of comments over the last 24 hours suggesting exactly that) we shouldn't be sad when we don't sign a guy who put up the same types of numbers. At this point it's simply "we don't like low BA, high power batters and that's that." Which is fine. But let's at least admit that the baseball industry is more than ok with low BA, high power batters, and that we simply don't like the modern game.

I was kidding, yes. I was being sarcastic by calling out the specificity of being down 5-3 in the ninth, etc. Look, I know you don't like Gallo. I get it. You hate this move unless he hits .230 with 35 homers. We'll agree to disagree on this deal at this time and just move forward.

Do you have a list of current Twins players and current players available to the Twins who's numbers in that situation you know are better? What are Kepler's numbers in those situations? I honestly don't know. But he's likely the guy Gallo is replacing so I'd think he'd be most relevant. I don't want Kepler up in those spots either cuz he simply isn't a very good hitter. Actually, there's very few hitters on the Twins I'd want up in those spots because most of them just aren't very good hitters. That's why I don't love this deal, but also don't hate it. You have the numbers of the Astros players that just won a World Series? Is their entire lineup significantly better than Gallo in those situations, or do they have players who also struggle there but are good at other things? I'm not going to get into a big back and forth here. I don't love this deal. I'm willing to wait and see what other moves are made before I condemn the FO for this move because Joey Gallo has had more major league success than all but a few players currently on the Twins 40-man. I don't like the 3 true outcome players. I don't like the FO right now because they sat around waiting for Correa when they were never going to offer him a realistic deal and missed on numerous other players they could've afforded. But being upset with them in general isn't enough for me to look at this deal in a vacuum and not as part of the offseason as a whole. They've got a lot of work to do to improve this team, and I doubt they'll be able to do enough. But I'll at least wait and see what else they do before going crazy over this 1 deal.