chpettit19

That'd be my guess for how things play out as well. I don't see a lot of options for them to do much in the bullpen at this point. Beyond switching the AAA guys in and out as needed. I'm not sure what they do if/when it's time to move on from Pagan, or give Moran/Alcala a AAA reset. They don't have anyone I see as a good possibility to take that 1-2 inning reliever role. Unless they're moving Winder to that kind of role, and I'd be on board with that. But I have a relatively quick trigger on moving starters to relievers if they can't hold up to the starter workload so I know some people would disagree with me on this.

Don't disagree that there's a need for a shakeup in the Pagan-Moran-Alcala section of the pen, but who do they have to replace them? Are they ready to move Sands, Winder, or Headrick to a fulltime relief spot? Would they run with 2 long relievers and have 2 of those guys in the pen to be used for multiple inning stints? If that's the plan, I'd think only 1 of them can fill the role in the fashion they're currently deploying it as you can't have 2 roster spots dedicated to guys who sit around and wait for blowup games, or injured pitchers. Would they be willing to use 1 of those guys in close games for multiple innings? I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade on Pagan-Moran-Alcala. They built depth everywhere on the roster but the pen. I don't know who you can replace those 3 with since they lost their depth in ST when they DFA'd guys and they got snatched up. Put themselves in a tough spot here.

100% agree the arms will keep us close. Part of that is tied to the defense, obviously. I think too much emphasis was given to bounce backs, health, and being able to take advantage of platoon splits. I think that's something we don't discuss enough. Solano and Farmer vs lefties and Gordon and Kepler vs righties is all well and good as long as Solano and Farmer are hitting lefties and Gordon and Kepler are hitting righties. When Gordon and Kepler aren't hitting righties it all falls apart. Which isn't terrible if they're hitting 7-9 in the order, but they aren't because the health hasn't been there yet. At least Gallo has an early bounce back, though. He's looked like a wonderful signing, and I hope he keeps it up. The caveat to this all is the same as usual, small sample size. Buxton was hitting over .300 a week ago. He has 1 more hit than you and I in the last week so things look terrible. But this is how it'll be until the end of May. We just won't really know what things are looking like until we get a little deeper into the year, and a little warmer weather. But I don't see much hope for help if the top guys don't produce, because, as you said, the guys brought in, or kept in Kepler's case, are much more productive in the field than at the plate.

As shocking as it may be, I agree with you, Chief. This offense just doesn't have the top end bats. It'd been my argument for Kepler being useful in previous years. The problem wasn't that he wasn't a useful player, it's that he was expected to be a core offensive piece when that's never what he's been. This team has too many 6 hole through bench players, and not enough top 5 in a lineup bats so guys like Kepler, Gordon, etc. are pushed into spots they don't belong. Those guys as platoon bats at the bottom of the order are good, but as leadoff, 3 hole, 4 hole types? You're not winning with that. Correa is a decent enough second best hitter on a championship type club. They need someone who's consistently over an .850 OPS every year, though. Preferably 2, but there's only about 30 guys a year that do that so 1 over .850+Correa is a solid place to start. Buxton is too streaky to be one of the top 2 bats in a lineup. Good Buxton in the playoffs could do what Rosario did a couple years ago and win a series for you on his own, but the odds are better that he disappears and Ks 12 times in the series. This club desperately needs Lewis and/or Kirilloff to be a top 3 in the order hitter. They need Miranda to be a top 5 hitter, and they need Polanco to be his usual self. That's their only chance at having an offense good enough to be playoff worthy. I'm not sure that'll happen. And I'm not sure Rocco/the FO would just put the top 5 guys in their spots 95% of the time and let it role. The offense has always been the biggest question mark this season, and it'll remain one until Polanco, Kirilloff, and Lewis start playing and we see what they look like. Correa, Polanco, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Miranda carry the fate of this team. Now and into the future.

Let's say you work on commission on top of a base salary. Your company gets bought out and the new company comes in and keeps your contract, but takes away 3/4 of your clients so it's impossible for you to hit your same commission marks. When your buddy asks if he should sign with your company on a commission based deal do you tell him "well they didn't sign me to my contract initially so I'm not mad they took away my chance to earn my commissions and you shouldn't take what they did to me into account at all?" I think that'd be a weird response, but to each their own. So we're back to basing it on 2 starts (unless your argument is that he's had a bad career) and I return to the idea that basing such things on 2 starts is absurd. Especially when he went 5 innings in his first start and 6 innings in his 2nd start. And MadBum has been washed for years so I'm confused on that comp. Justin Verlander came back from TJ last year at the age of 39 with 2900 innings under his belt and had a 1.75 ERA in 28 starts. Why isn't that your comp if you're just picking random guys over the age of 30 with 2000+ innings? Or Scherzer? Darvish? Wainwright? Morton? Cueto? Carrasco? Lance Lynn? They were all 35 or older last year. Why weren't they your comps? Who are you worried he holding back? The 27 year old who's thrown more than 100 innings in a season once in the last 9 years? Or the 25 year old with 6 starts under his belt? This has been my other point. People act like he's holding back prime Pedro or something. Ober and Varland are really nice depth, they're not prime Johan.

Nope, I meant third start, because this isn't his third year of starting, it's his 15th. Maybe you're unaware of Maeda's career and believe he wasn't a starter before he got to MN and are connecting his TJ surgery to him not having been a starter before he got here. Maeda has started 137 games in the majors. He started 217 in Japan. Of his 398 professional baseball games he's started 356 of them. It most definitely is not his 3rd year starting so I'm confused on what you're basing your stance on if it's not his starts this year.

Now that's quality stuff right there. Well done.

Well you better start calling 30 Major League Baseball teams and tell them to quit thinking about contract incentives. They all do it whether you like it or not, whether it's right or not. They all do it. Especially in April. I'm sorry you're disappointed in how every team runs their team.

I fully agree. Maeda absolutely may pitch himself into the pen at some point this year. I'm not suggesting he has to stay in the rotation all year. I'm suggesting it's April 20th. I'm suggesting this is his 3rd start. I have a problem with comparing putting him in the pen in April to what the Dodgers did. I have a problem with the narrative that contracts don't matter in April. I have a problem with the idea that 2 starts was giving him "every chance to start" or however people want to word that. I get that it's just the nature of fandom that it's all live in the moment. But suggesting the team should be making big decisions on players after 2 starts is crazy, and terrible team management.

If you're tying the ST narrative to the current (like I am) then I'm not exaggerating. There are hundreds of posts on these boards about Ober being great and Maeda being close to toast. No, I'm not. My stance is still that they (and every team) takes contracts into consideration. My stance is till that other players, and agents really, pay attention to how players are treated when it comes to their contracts and incentives. I was then presented with an argument that Maeda simply isn't good enough, which tied back into the ST narratives, and combatted that as well. I'm arguing 2 different points because 2 different points were presented. Fans can find the incentive talk ridiculous, but it's not. I can tell you with 100% certainty that there's at least 1 rep agency out there that tracks every contract, incentive details, how many incentives were reached, and have notes on why incentives weren't reached. I've seen the files. It's a 100% certainty that this stuff matters. Rep agencies (at least the good ones) have just as much data and info as teams. This stuff matters.

Contracts matter is the point. If you want to play semantics feel free if it helps you feel better about things. Players contracts influence playing time. You don't have to like it. It doesn't make it "right." But contracts (amounts, incentives, whatever) absolutely influence playing time at the start of seasons.

Contracts matter is the point. If you guys want to get into semantics feel free if it helps anyone feel better about things. Players contracts influence playing time. People don't have to like it. It doesn't make it "right." But contracts (amounts, incentives, whatever) absolutely influence playing time at the start of seasons.

Fair enough.

Liner off the leg to end the 2nd.

To start the year? Yes. 100% of them. Why was MadBum in the Diamondback's rotation to start the year? You think it was because of his performance with them the last few years or because he's owed a ton of money?

A 27 year old who has never thrown a full starter's workload. Never. Not 1 single time in his entire life has Bailey Ober thrown an MLB starter's workload. Pretending he's suddenly capable of doing that is crazy. No, they weren't. They never once gave Maeda less than 20 starts in any season, and only once gave him fewer than 25. 2 and 20 are pretty far apart. They absolutely were not doing what people are suggesting here and simply making him a reliever more or less out of the gate (people wanted it straight out of ST). I'm not exaggerating the situation. It's his 3rd start! He went 5 and 6 innings in his first 2 starts. The idea that he's not holding up is flat out ignoring reality. There's 5+ more months of the season. Turning 1 of your 8 possible big league starters into a pen piece in April is not good roster management. Ober, Varland, SWR are all going to get numerous starts this year. Baseball is a long season. Fans overreactions to small sample size is why FOs don't care about fan reactions.

It's how EVERY MLB team operates in April. Whether you like it or not.

5.5 innings per start isn't exactly some sort of outlier. People are acting like he's throwing 3 innings a game. And it's so clear they should put Ober in there instead who has literally never, in his entire life, held up to a starter's workload. Never. Not once. You can't say Maeda isn't holding up if your answer to that problem is replacing him with a guy who's thrown 100 innings in 1 year since he was 18. He's 27. How much more evidence do we need that he can't hold up?

The Twins acquired a player they knew had incentives. He made 103 starts in 4 years with the Dodgers. People act like he was making 5 starts a year for them or something. He averaged more starts per year with them than Sonny Gray has for the last like 8 years. Who's the clearly better option? Ober? The guy who can't throw 100 innings a season? It's crazy that people act like he's some world beater and Maeda is some scrub.

Again, it's been 2 starts. The team setting 2 starts as the "reasonable expectation" is absurd. Bailey Ober has literally never held up to a starters role, but that's who people want.

They're tied together, Chief. Last time you called me "flat out wrong" I gave you stat after stat to show you were, in fact, the one who was flat out wrong then you disappeared. You seem to think that saying just makes you right. Not quite how it works. Kenta Maeda has earned the right to start over a very productive professional career. His incentives are tied to him starting. He's had 2 starts this year and you want him relegated to the pen because you're not happy with his 2 starts. Players aren't idiots. And neither are their agents. Agents would have it highlighted in their notes about the Twins when their veteran pitcher is contacted by the Twins and they suggest incentives tied to starts. Pretending it's not all tied together is being entirely disingenuous and you know it. Fans have the luxury of living in the moment. Teams need to "play to win" for the now and the later. People act like Bailey Ober is Nolan Ryan and we're just refusing to play the iron man who'd be throwing 8 inning shutouts every night. Bailey Ober has topped 100 innings 1 time since he was 18 years old. He's 27 now. It's a joke that people think he's someone the team should, or would, just throw in there and expect deep starts. It's funny that it's the same group of people who complain about short starts who want the guy who can't go deep into starts thrust into the rotation and act like it's so obvious.

So? The Twins knew the incentives when they acquired him. Players care about money. They want their money. And if their money is tied to something the team doesn't allow you to achieve it sends a message to other players that the team may want to attract later. Pretending players don't take note of how players are treated when it comes to incentives is ignoring reality.

This is his 3rd start. If you're a FA starter and they want to tie incentives to your # of starts and the team says "every opportunity to start" is 3 starts you're hanging up and never answer their call again. I'm sorry you think 2 starts is enough to change a player's role. It's not hard to see why fans aren't running teams.

Wonderful way to attract free agents, and negotiate deals with incentives in them in the future. Tell players "it's business so damn to your incentives." Team building 101 there.

Maybe being 1 for 19 on this road trip, with 11 Ks is why he's sitting today?