chpettit19

No, thank you.

Sounds like Twins have deals in place with Hendry Chivilli (SS, DR) and Ariel Castro (cOF, Cuba).

The simple reality of the plate being there isn't the problem. Again, everybody knew he had a plate in his leg. He's had it for over half a decade. It's not a long-term problem simply having a plate. I'd guess they were not aware of any long-term concerns about the plate before the season. There very well may not have been any long term concerns about the plate before the season. The concern about the plate now may be coming from insurance companies not being willing to insure past a certain number of years because of the plate and that wasn't a problem the Twins faced because it was only a 1-3 year deal. No, it doesn't. Not to mention Correa is a human being with the right to say "I'm fine, I don't need, or want, a whole physical with scans and MRIs and everything else because I feel fine." The Twins don't just get to tie him down and scan him whenever they want. He told them, and the media, that there was no pain and he was fine. He missed no games because of it. What reason did they have to do a bunch of scans then? They were already going to be able to do a physical if they agreed to terms with him. There was no reason to do it. Again, I'm not saying they were aware of the concerns! I'm literally arguing the opposite. It's not about the pitchers both getting hurt (news flash: every team in major league baseball has multiple pitchers get hurt every year). It's about the risk they were willing to take. People act like no other team acquires players who've been injured. Even recent injuries. Montas was on the IL in July last year with shoulder issues and these boards and Twitter and the entire internet was filled with Twins fans still begging the Twins to go get him. Literally the exact same injury concern on almost the exact same timeline and the Yankees traded for Montas. The point is that that risk is taken by every team all the time. It's not just the Twins being stupid.

Were the Twins aware that Correa had a plate in his leg prior to the season? Yes. Everyone in the baseball industry was aware of that. What does that have to do with long-term stability concerns? Did they do scans and a full workup of his ankle after he reported no pain on a slide on September 20th and they knew he'd be leaving the team in a month? No. Why in the world would the Twins have done scans of his leg after that? They knew they'd do an entirely new physical on him if they were to agree to a deal with him. They're not putting their players through unnecessary medical exams when the player isn't reporting any pain that could effect them in the current season. Who's saying the Twins weren't unware of whatever SF or NY found? I'm saying they had no reason to be looking for long-term problems before last season (they didn't have him signed long-term!), and it's entirely possible the concerns arose because of that slide, or just normal wear and tear of another season. "The Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg." That's a quote from Ken Rosenthal/Dan Hayes in an Athletic article. You can find thousands more like them in other articles about the Giants and Mets deals with Correa. The Mets new the Giants had concerns about his physical and still offered him their 12 year deal before doing their own deep dive. But the Twins offering a deal before getting to do their new physical is outrageous? The Yankees traded for a pitcher with the exact same "health issues" as Mahle at the deadline. The Yankees also allowed Tanaka to pitch with a partially torn UCL for years. The Dodgers couldn't even tell if Walker Buehler had torn his UCL before he went into surgery for his 2nd TJ in August after allowing him to pitch with elbow concerns for most of last year. Jacob deGrom hasn't stayed healthy for 2 years (15 starts in 2021, 11 in 2022) and just signed a 5 year deal for a boatload of money at the age of 34. Aaron Judge is a 30 year old, 6'7" player (they don't tend to hold up and age well) who's had over 500 PAs in a season twice since 2017 and just signed one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. The Yankees traded for Harrison Bader while he was on the IL. The Padres traded for Clevinger knowing he had elbow concerns, had those elbow issues flair up at the end of the 2020 season and brought him back for the playoffs anyways only to watch him undergo his 2nd TJ before then buying out his last 2 arbitration years knowing they'd only get 1 season of a guy coming off his 2nd TJ. And these are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. This idea that the Twins are just doing crazy (or are simply incompetent) things simply isn't true.

Do you agree or disagree with this timeline? Twins agree to 3 year deal with 2 player opt outs with Correa. Twins do physical before signing deal and feel there's nothing in the physical to lead them to believe he was a ticking timebomb about to explode during the 2022 MLB season. Correa slides and feels a vibration in the plate in his leg. Correa opts out after 1 season of 3 year deal like everyone thinking rationally knew he would. Twins offer Correa 10/285. Correa agrees to 13 year deal with the Giants. Correa takes new physical. Giants have hesitations. Correa agrees to 12 year deal with Mets. Mets review new physical and have concerns. Today. That's my understanding of how things have gone. And in there the Twins were looking at his physical assessing the likelihood of him being hurt during the 2022 season because they knew with 100% certainty that he was opting out unless he had some sort of major injury or completely forgot how to play baseball. I've even been generous enough to give you the 2 extra years and say they were concerned about 3 years, when we all knew from the day he signed that they had 1 year with him. I don't think it's just "worst possible light," I think it's confirmation bias with no standing in reality. We're not going to agree on this, though. So no real point in me continuing to point out the gigantic gap in years, and the entire season he played after the Twins physical that included him commenting on an uncomfortable feeling he had in the part of his body teams are now concerned about.

Now you're playing semantics. Use whatever word you want, the implications are that the Twins screwed up/ignored a problem/weren't even aware of said problem because they signed him to a 1 year deal with 2 option years. Pretending that's at all the same to signing him to a 12 or 13 year deal is nonsense. They're not at all the same thing. And who says he didn't jostle that plate (I mean he literally admitted that a slide late in the year had him nervous as he felt something in the plate) during the season and that's what the other teams are now seeing. I seriously don't understand how you don't see a difference between the next 2 years and the next 9 years. What reason do you have to believe the Mets or Giants are seeing something that at all concerns them in the next 2 seasons?

Which later years? Years 3 through 12 or 13? No. Years 10 through 12 or 13? Yeah, probably. But there's a whole lot of years between there. The point is that pointing to the Twins passing him on a physical for a 3 year deal (that everyone knew was really a 1 year deal) as them being incompetent now that other teams don't want to pay him for 12 or 13 years is ignoring a whole lot of context. Like 10 years of context. It's just confirmation bias.

Strongly disagree. You're assuming their injury concerns are for the first 1 or 2 years of 12 and 13 year deals. But to each their own.

That's my bad. The Twins definitely should've been concerned about what Correa's leg would look like in 8 years when they were signing a 1 year deal. They're so dumb! I know Mike knows that's sarcasm, but for anyone questioning, that was sarcasm.

The Cohen situation is interesting. He didn't overrule his staff on Rocker last year. How much more does he want Correa? I'd guess a lot, but he's also not blindly doing deals. He let deGrom walk. Likely due to his injury concerns I'd guess. He's aggressive, but I don't know that we should just assume he's going to be reckless here.

If you're referring to the deal he signed last year, he passed the physical because it was for 1 year, not 12 or 13. And he had a slide this last season where he felt something in his surgically repaired leg. It's entirely possible that that slide aggravated something and the Drs with these other teams are now seeing that that leg isn't likely to hold up for as long as they'd like. Or the insurance company, as others have stated, don't like the odds of it holding up. He hasn't taken a physical for the Twins after their 10/285 offer so if that's the one you were referencing it's as simple as it hasn't happened so he hasn't passed anything.

Looking like short years, high AAV deals for Correa moving forward. I still expect him to end up in NY with the Mets, but on a deal similar to the 3 years 105 million deal he had here. Without the opt outs.

If the Twins would be willing to pay Devers they 100% should see if he's available. He'd instantly be the best player on the team (because Buxton doesn't play enough). But there's a 0% chance they'd pay market rate for him so there's no way they should actually trade for him. Overall, I find it hard to believe they're going to really invest in another 3B at this point. They traded Urshela so Miranda can play there. Unless you're upgrading on Miranda (with someone like Devers, even though Devers is probably best suited to be a DH most the time) there's really no point in bringing someone else in. They're trying to transition to the "new core" and Miranda is the only youngster that's stayed healthy and produced so he's getting a spot handed to him. Probably the right strategy.

I'll take the over on Mahle, he's my bold prediction for 2023. And my expectation is that he performs well enough that the Twins won't extend him because they won't pay market rate. But that's a different discussion for a different post. The FO is in a tough spot. I don't know how secure in their jobs they feel, and that's a huge variable here. If they feel like they've got another couple years of runway/would be allowed to go into an abbreviated rebuild I think they should be trading some veterans this offseason. My guess is the Pohalds/St Peter see the dwindling attendance numbers, and their expiring TV deal, and want no part of a public punting of the 2023 season. Especially after St Peter's comments on attendance at the end of the year, they have to be publicly showing they're trying to win in 2023. I don't think they've done a good job of that. And based on convos with my friends and the forums here, I don't think I'm in the minority. With the competition in this division, this half-a'd approach to the offseason could be enough to get into the playoffs in 2023. That's not good enough for me, and I'm not excited about this team at all. But I can see where there's hope. I just hope they're willing to make decisions quickly during the season if young guys are taking spots and let them run with them.

It makes me sad, and likely adds to my current frustration, that Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff have gone through what they have the last 2 years. If even 2 of those guys had established themselves as the top 6 in a good lineup bat with solid to above average defense that we all expect/hope they will become 2023 would look so much different to me. Arraez, Buxton, Polanco, Miranda, and 2 of those guys would've been a great base to build from. But since I can't trust any of those 3 to be a key player for the 2023 Twins I'm left crossing my fingers on a Gallo deal I wish they never even had to consider.

Gallo causes me a lot of cognitive dissonance. I know he's an above average, likely All Star level player if he bashes 38 bombs and plays above average to gold glove quality defense. But I hate the 3 true outcome style of game, and watching him will make me pull out what little hair I have left.

I'll be pretty shocked if Polanco isn't a top 15 2B in 2023 again. I will not be shocked if Kepler continues to struggle. But I hope he bounces back and improves.

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point. The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage. The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

Gallo for 1/11 or Conforto for 2/36 is an interesting debate. Not sure I love either of those deals. The FA market is a blood bath this year.

It's not a double standard when you're comparing 2 completely separate fan bases. And, as mentioned above, this thread is about Bauer and the Twins, not Watson and the Browns. Let's just stick to Bauer and the Twins.

Recent reports (as recently as earlier tonight) have the Dodgers ready to cut him loose and eat his money. It should probably say a lot that they have no desire to keep him. The Twins FO isn't exactly on the best of terms with the fan base right now, and picking up a guy with his reputation as a person and teammate doesn't sound like the way to get fans back on their side. I'll be pretty darn surprised if he gets a deal with any team. Ever. I'd bet his career is over. He's into his 30s now, has a terrible reputation from multiple organizations (even wasn't liked in college), openly admitted to using "sticky stuff" during his amazing 2020 season, and hasn't been on a major league mound in a year and a half, but continued to shoot off his mouth and poke MLB over social media. Can't imagine there's too many owners willing to take on that PR nightmare for a guy who's been more average to good than great over his career.

Correct. My whole point, though, was just that it's not as simple as saying "the contracts aren't that different because of NY taxes vs MN taxes." It's far more complicated than that.

Maybe I'm reading that article wrong, and understanding the information I've gotten wrong, but it's actually the opposite of your Florida example. A Marlin who plays 3 games in Minnesota won't get a credit for the taxes they had to pay to MN since Florida has no income tax. So had those 3 games been played in Florida, the player pays no taxes. Since they're played in MN the player pays no taxes to FL, but does pay taxes to MN, and gets no credit because he only paid tax on the money once. Thus he makes less than he would've if the system was based solely around the tax rate of his team's state. Edited: Well it's not the opposite, but it goes both ways. That's the better way to say it. But at the end of the day it's still not simply NY taxes vs MN taxes.

I wish Dozier was still around in 2021 and 2022! He was a gamer.