chpettit19

If he'd sign that deal I'd do it in a heartbeat (and I don't think he's a star, but more so a really solid #3 type with #2 peaks here and there). I don't think Ryan would sign it, though. 30+ starts in 2023 with numbers similar to what he put up in 27 starts in 2022 makes him significantly more money than that. He's currently set to hit free agency going into his age 32 season so I'd think he'd want significantly more than 12.5 million guaranteed for his first 2 free agency years when he'd be likely to make double that in 1 year on the market in 2028 by simply maintaining his current performance. I don't see the motivation for Ryan to accept that deal.

I don't know if @USAFChief is right that it's "orthodox stathead-ology" (I know a handful of stat guys who like RBI still), but there are certainly more than zero people who say "RBI are meaningless." Cuz I say RBI are meaningless. It's a little bit semantics here, but RBI are important while the stat is meaningless. You need to drive in runs to win. So it's important. But the RBI stat isn't measuring what people who like it claim it is. It's not at all hard to find BA with RISP stats. Or % of runners driven in stats. Or any number of combinations of outs, bases occupied, game situation, etc. stats that show who the actual clutch hitters are while RBI does nothing of the sort. For example: In 2022 Jose Abreu drove in 75 runs while Jose Miranda drove in 66. However, Abreu had 679 PAs to Miranda's 483. Miranda drove in 16.1% of the baserunners he had on during his 483 PAs. Abreu drove in 13.8% of his. Guy on 3rd, less than 2 outs? Abreu drove in 39.4% of his runners, Miranda drove in 47.2% of his. So, yes, RBI are important because runs are how you win and you need to drive them in. But, no, RBI is not a meaningful stat. Would you rather have had Abreu or Miranda up with runners on last year? RBI says Abreu, but doing even the slightest bit of digging shows Miranda was the far superior hitter when it came to driving in runners last year.

Abreu to Houston sounds like it's all but done.

In a vacuum it doesn't matter where they play. But in reality it's harder to find a guy with the athleticism to play well up the middle who also hits for above average offense. Having one gives you an advantage. But then having a guy at a corner spot who isn't athletic enough to field up the middle, but doesn't make up for it with significantly above average offense takes your advantage of the up the middle guy away. Defense is still the priority for most every team up the middle unless you've got a superstar offensively. It's what makes Correa and Buxton so valuable. You can have your offensive guys at the corners where their defense doesn't hurt so much while lengthening your lineup with stud bats by having your SS and CF also be elite bats. Having someone on the corner (Kepler for example) who is below average offensively negates the bonus you have with Correa and Buxton by shortening your lineup back down some. The goal isn't to have a balance of guys who get on, guys who slug, and guys who do both. The goal is to have as many guys who do both as possible. It's about collecting "tools." It's why having Lewis and Lee isn't a reason not to sign Correa. Having guys who could be stars up the middle move to corner spots makes them even more valuable because they bring more tools than everyone else's corner guys.

Curious as to why you feel Rodon isn't the answer. I think he pretty clearly slots in ahead of anyone the Twins currently have and would lead the majority of rotations in baseball. Also intrigued by the comment that "literally everyone could be replaced" when speaking of the bullpen. You don't think Duran was elite, thus pretty hard to replace?

The problem is that when he's a .300 hitter he's a league average hitter. He hit .294 in 2021 and had an wRC+ of 105. That's still a useful player, but not as a 1B or DH. That's my problem with him. Yes, a .300 hitter in a vacuum is worth having around. This isn't a vacuum, though. A 105 wRC+ would've put him as the 18th best hitting 1B in baseball this season. This isn't about power over average in a vacuum either. I don't care how you create your OPS (BA, walks, slugging) so long as you create it. The challenge for Arraez is he has no wiggle room. If he's not hitting .330 he's a league average hitter, and league average hitters who play DH and 1B are not worth the contract numbers people are throwing around here. For example, old friend CJ Cron is a league average hitting 1B and he got 2 years, 14.5 million. And that's with power. Whether you like it or not, teams pay way more for power. The problem absolutely isn't that he's not a HR hitter, though, it's that he can't play anywhere but DH or 1B (the 2 lowest spots on the fielding ladder) where you can "hide" elite, all around (that's the key part here) hitters. There's no wiggle room for Arraez to be useful to a team. The entirety of his value comes from hitting over .320, not .300. He needs to be well above .300 to be valuable. The other part outside the vacuum is his health. He's worn down every season in the second half. He has chronic knee problems. He's doing his best to be available as much as possible, but your legs are pretty important to hitting, and when your only valuable tool is hitting you need to be doing it to the best of your ability at all time to be a valuable player. Again, I love Arraez. I want him on the team. But when teams look at players they want them to be able to impact the game in as many ways as possible. Arraez is a risky extension candidate even if I wish he wasn't. I call him Gwynn 2.0 and my friends hate me for comparing him to a HOFer. I think he's fantastic at what he does. That doesn't make his knee issues go away, though. And it doesn't make him faster, or a fielder who can handle 2B or 3B. He's a risky extension candidate and the team doesn't have a great deal of reason to lock him into 10M a year when they have 3 years of control left. 2021 Arraez isn't worth nearly that much. Maybe 2022 Arraez is. The problem is that to be worth that deal he has to win the batting title every year. That's not a bet I'd be willing to make on a guy with his knee issues and 2nd half performances.

Just for your own knowledge: Twins as a team averaged 3.92 pitches per plate appearance. That was 9th in baseball. Correa- 4.09 Arraez- 4.01 Larnach- 4.02 Polanco- 4.27 Sano- 4.59 Urshella- 3.68 Kirilloff- 3.94 Sanchez- 3.99 Buxton- 3.98 Jeffers- 4.00 Celestino- 3.99 Gordon- 3.51 Kepler- 3.71 Miranda- 3.75 Wallner- 3.97 Garlick- 3.72

To each their own with Buxton. He's certainly not an easy player to evaluate. But Arraez, even fully healthy, just isn't the kind of player that is worthy of much risk taking, in my opinion. He's unquestionably a 1 tool player. he provides no defensive value as a 1B since it's the lowest position on the defensive ladder. He doesn't have the range to play 2B without the shift. And his arm is too erratic to play 3B. He brings no power and no speed. His only tool is getting hits. Most of which are singles. His eye and low strikeout rates are wonderful, and I love watching him hit. But he's got no wiggle room for his BA dropping. None at all. And at this point he's a platoon bat as he's really struggled against lefties (for him it's struggling when he hits .261 off them with no power). If I'm the Twins I'm simply not betting on a guy who's best position is DH vs Righties with his 2nd best position being 1B against righties. There's simply not enough value in his game for me to want to take on the risk of his knees when I already have him under control for 3 more years. If he were a Nelson Cruz type hitter with power and average, yes, lock him up, but no power DH and 1Bs simply aren't worth much in today's game.

The difference for me is that peak Buxton is in the argument for best player (not named Ohtani) on the planet. I don't expect to ever get a full season out of Buxton, but he'll be worth 15 a year playing 80 games a year. He'll cover the total cost of that deal in the first 3 years. Arraez just doesn't bring enough to the table outside his bat, and his bat is BA driven only. He needs to hit .330 to be valuable. .300 would still be nice, but a .300 hitting, no power, no speed 1B with bad knees isn't worth the $10m a year people are talking about here. I'd take an incentive laden deal for any player, but very few players need to take such deals. Buxton is unique in that. At this point I don't know why Arraez would see himself as needing to take an incentive laden deal. Most players at his age with the accolades he's got are willing to bet on themselves. And Arraez should. But from the Twins perspective I don't see why they should bet $10M a year on a guy who's unplayable if he's hitting under .300. I really wish I trusted his knees more. I love him and what he brings to the game as a whole, let alone just the Twins. I want more of him in the league. But I don't think he's worth an extension at this point, unfortunately.

I love Arraez. He's my favorite Twin to watch hit, and has been since he got here. But I wouldn't extend him. He's got bad knees and those don't tend to get better as you age. He's a 1 tool player (his glove is alright, but he's got no range and an inaccurate arm) and even that tool sees a decline as the season goes on and his body wears down. He spent time with Nelson Cruz last offseason working on his body to strengthen his lower half and be able to hold up more during the season. It hasn't worked yet, but maybe a few offseasons with a new routine will help. I'm not betting on it, though. As much as it pains me to say Arraez wouldn't get an extension from me. The emotional attachment side of me wants to see him locked up for 10 years and have him hit leadoff for the next 8, but it's just not a smart move for a guy who's already terribly slow with bad knees. I go year to year with him and make him prove his knees will hold up. To this point I'm not sold on that happening.

Can we stop with this "3 times through the order" narrative on Gray. That isn't why he was getting short starts. Spring training started late for everyone in 2022 cuz of the lockout. Sonny Gray's got started even later because of the trade. So his first start was a little shorter (4.2 innings) as he was still building up from not having a full ST. He was hurt in his second start (April 16th) and placed on the IL. He returned from the IL to make a start on May 7th. So now he's had a shortened ST, and was hurt in his second start of the year. So his next 2 starts were shorter (4 and 4.1 innings) as he built back up from the short ST and IL stint. After those 2 starts he went 6 innings, 7 innings, 6 innings on May 18, 24, 29. He was then placed back on the IL because he was hurt AGAIN. So 3 of 7 starts after a shortened ST and with an IL stint in the middle went at least 6 innings and he had to go on the IL again. He returned on June 15th and his first 2 starts were again a little shortened. The first one was 5 innings, likely to help build him back up again. The 2nd start back was 4 innings cuz he wasn't good (4 runs, 3 earned through 4). His 3rd start back went 7 innings. He was bad in his next 3 starts so didn't go deep. Then went 5 or 6 innings in starts when he was good for most of the rest of the year. It was during this stretch that the infamous comment was made about wanting to go deeper in starts. There are definitely some games in there that it was Rocco/the FO putting unnecessary constraints on him, but the idea that they had a "3rd time through the lineup" rule for Sonny simply isn't accurate. Oh, and he ended the year on the IL again after having gone 6 innings Sept 8th, and 7 innings on the 14th. He was then brutal on the 19th and hit the IL to end the year. Sonny Gray is not a workhorse. Sonny Gray hasn't been a workhorse since his 2nd year in the majors. The Twins aren't flexible enough with their starters, in my opinion. But the "3rd time through the lineup" rule was for rookies, a less than stellar veteran (Bundy), and a coming off injury veteran who could never build his stamina (Archer). The idea that Sonny should be, or is, mad about his usage because they wouldn't let him face a lineup a 3rd time is simply false. They tried to let him and he kept getting hurt. Sonny Gray is not a workhorse. He wasn't his last 1.5 seasons in Oakland. He wasn't with NY. He wasn't in Cinci. He wasn't with the Twins. The Twins need to revamp their pitching strategy, but stop acting like Sonny Gray is some 200 IP per year guy. He isn't. He hasn't even gotten close since 2015. He's only made 30 starts in a season once since 2015, and only threw 175.1 innings that year (That's less than 6 innings/start for those keeping track). So even the season he didn't end up on the IL for multiple stretches he wasn't throwing high innings/start. He simply isn't the guy you want him to be.

That was the first OPS+ over 78 for Andrus since 2017. 2018- OPS+ 78 2019- 78 2020- 60 2021- 73 Expecting Andrus to OPS+ anywhere near 100 in 2023 seems like a bad bet to me. 2022 was also the first time he'd slugged .400 since 2017. His .464 slugging with Chicago carried him to a 116 OPS+ during his time there. 2017 was the only year of his career that he slugged that well (.471). His .404 slugging in 2022 was only the 3rd time in his 14 year career that he slugged over .400. In Farmer's 2 full seasons as a starter he's OPS+ed 88 and 90. He's certainly no star, and I hope they get better than him, but he's more stable than Andrus for sure. I'd take Farmer over Andrus for 2023 10 out of 10 times. Edit: Sorry, you used wRC+, I wasn't looking close enough. Those numbers are actually worse. 2018-2022 went 76, 76, 57, 74, 105 for wRC+.

I wouldn't extend him. He hasn't been anything close to reliable health-wise for years now. He's not getting younger. Play out this year and give him a qualifying offer for 2024 while you discuss another short-term deal with him then. I'm not interested in paying for multiple years for a guy who's topped 160 innings twice since 2015 (and 1 of those was 162 innings in 2017).

This would be the route a star takes. In AA at age 20 meaning he's got a shot at the bigs at 21. If that's not how it plays out it's not all doom and gloom, but that'd be the path an elite player takes. And we know the Twins could use more of those.

September stats are very different now than in TK's day. Rosters are expanded to 28, not 40. The narrative that September stats are tainted cuz of facing AAA talent isn't nearly as true now. The reports are that Pagan had more teams calling the Twins asking about him than Gio did. Which is then quite frustrating that Pagan wasn't also moved. Or maybe those were Twins FO leaked rumors to draw more calls on Pagan moving forward? But there are reports that teams want Pagan, oddly enough.

James Rowson was let go by the Marlins and is now the assistant hitting coach with the Tigers.

If they weren't going to pay that money this is a great move. Why not take a flier prospect instead of just non-tendering Urshela? I liked Gio and would've been happy with him on the team to start 2023, but can also understand clearing 3B for Miranda, and hopefully Lee before long. This becomes a terrible trade if they don't spend that money, though. For me, this entire offseason comes down to them actually being aggressive and signing some top end talent with the money they should have available in their budget.

It's all about price to me. How long, and how expensive, is Xander's contract going to be. I'm guessing he's looking for 6+ years and I'm not interested in that for him. I think his decline is coming soon. If you can get him for 3 or 4 years I'd be all over that, but more than that would be a hard no for me.

My thought as well. I wouldn't say it's super likely, but also not impossible. If he's non-tendered I'd scoop him up and say goodbye to Garlick.

Bellinger is an interesting player this offseason. If he were on any team outside of the few big spenders he'd be an unquestioned non-tender, but he plays for the Dodgers so there's a chance they risk the 20 mil on 1 more shot at getting MVP Bellinger back. I'd think that their decision on Bellinger is based on how they feel about their chances to sign Judge. If they think they have a legit shot at bringing Judge to the west coast I'd think they'd be more likely to non-tender Bellinger and shift that money to Judge. If they don't think they can get him it probably makes it more likely they just hold onto Bellinger and hope he figures it out. As for the Twins bringing him in if he's non-tendered...much like the Gallo article yesterday, if they're moving Kepler Bellinger wouldn't be a bad guy to bring in on a 1 year deal to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle offensively while not losing the defense in RF. I wouldn't be tripping over myself to sign Bellinger Saturday if he's non-tendered Friday, but he's someone I'd keep my eye on later in the offseason as I make other moves such as a potential Kepler trade.

Bauer is just about the only top free agent pitcher the Dodgers have brought in in recent memory. They built their rotation almost entirely internally. I'm not saying they aren't a threat to sign Rodon, because they're a threat to sign literally everyone, but spending big money on FA pitchers isn't their MO at all. They traded for Scherzer midseason, but also got Trea Turner in that deal, and then didn't extend Scherzer. They traded for David Price, but that was to get Mookie Betts. They've extended their homegrown HOF pitcher Clayton Kershaw, but they really don't bring in any long-term, high priced FA starters frequently. Grienke in 2013 and Bauer in 2021 (both of which will be only 3 year deals) are the only truly big money signings they've made in the last 10 years for starting pitching. Since they're the Dodgers they're always capable of these kinds of signings, but they most certainly aren't "always throwing money at top free agent pitchers."

Ah, the old Sano debate. Sano was an above average hitter for the Twins overall, but was the very definition of streaky. When he was "on" he was the scariest hitter on the planet. When he was "off" he was basically a pitcher hitting. There were very few in between times. To me, he was mostly a victim of the hype train. He was tabbed as a savior for this team from the day he signed. They made a documentary about him. They were calling him the next Miguel Cabrera. He was going to come up and win MVPs and carry the Twins to World Series titles. Then it turned out he was simply a poor defender, above average hitter who helped usher in the "strikeouts don't matter" movement in baseball. There's no argument that he was a "bust," but at the end of his time in a Twins uni he's certainly been disappointing. I expect Sano to sign a major league deal somewhere. And probably not have a ton of problems finding one. He's a 29 year old who makes harder contact than anyone in baseball. Not sure why people think that guy is going to struggle to find a big league deal. I know he was disappointing here, but 29 year olds with his batted ball data and a 116 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ get major league deals.

Way to just leave me hanging here, Brock! Although, that's pretty much the exact summary of what I think a lot of us are expecting with this saga anyways. Solid fifth-place offer.

I see. You not quoting them made it appear that you were saying you didn't think they needed Gallo cuz he was a DH. I follow now. I sure hope they don't accept any "dumbest move they've made" challenges! From me or anyone else.

Gallo isn't a DH. He's a multi-time gold glove winning outfielder. If they signed him and put him at DH it'd be the worst move they've ever made.