chpettit19

Why? What are his career numbers when down 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth?

That's a whole different conversation that this post isn't about, and we don't need another post that turns into just ranting about the FO so let's just keep it to Gallo and the topic of the original article, please.

Yeah, just going to have to agree to disagree that a 117 wRC+ makes an offense worse. If he returns to his Texas self from those 4 years he makes the team better whether you like his style of hitting or not. If he's his NY or LA self he doesn't.

And that's all well and good, but there's very few people here who are saying he's bad because of his situational hitting. Let's not pretend that's what these complaints are about. And my comment was very directly a response to chief's comment that Gallo wasn't good for those 4 years, but instead just half a season. People can still be mad at the signing without pretending he wasn't a significantly above average hitter over a 4 year period of time.

Is it my turn to tell you to stop? He's got 2 gold gloves and is widely known around the league as a great defender. But we'll just focus on the offensive numbers from 2017-2021 where Nick claims he was good to great, and you claim he was good to great for half of 1 season. He was tied for 72nd in baseball with a 117 wRC+ for those 4 combined seasons. During that same time frame the Twins had exactly 2 hitters with 117 or better wRC+ (Garver 123 and Cruz 157). During those 4 seasons he accumulated 14.4 fWAR. That tied him for 40th in baseball for those 4 years. The Twins top WAR producer during that time was Buxton who accumulated 12.1 fWAR. In those 4 years he was 56th in baseball in OPS at .834. 1 spot behind Garver who was at .835. Cruz and his .984 was the only other Twin above him. That must have been one heck of a half-season to get him into those rankings in the entire sport over a 4 year span. Like the best half season ever probably.

I know these articles are queued up in advance, and released at certain times despite having been written well in advance, but nearly every article released in the last week has had a free agent rumor in it that had already been completed. Rodon being the example here. Getting to be a bit ridiculous at this point. I wouldn't think it's too hard to go back and take those things out after they happen. It's not like there wasn't plenty of time to edit this article since Rodon was off the board on Thursday.

Do walks not count? Aren't people on these boards during every game complaining that the Twins don't work the count, walk, or get on base enough? His OPS in Texas was .833 for his 6+ seasons, and over 2000 PAs, there. That would've put him 20th in baseball in 2022, tied with Xander Bogaerts who just got significantly more than $11 million. Maybe top 20 isn't "elite," but it feels awfully close. But, again, for the 1 millionth time, I'm not suggesting Joey Gallo is going to come in and be the 20th best hitter in baseball in 2023. I'm simply pointing out that when he was in Texas he showed more upside than any bat in the Twins lineup not named Buxton. Jorge Polanco has a career OPS of .779. .833 is slightly higher than that, no? In fact, Polanco only OPS'd above .833 1 time in his career (2019). He's a frustrating guy to watch with the Ks and BA. No doubt. Not a huge fan of that. But suggesting that he has no upside is ignoring a whole lot of previous upside. He was awful in NY and LA. Is that because he's fallen off a cliff and is Chris Davis now? Or is that because he couldn't handle the pressure there? The former means this is going to be an awful signing and he's hopefully DFA'd by June. The latter means he's at least useful during 1 regular season, and could possibly then be flipped at the deadline if he's back to OPSing .800+. If you care about how someone gets their OPS you may not like him because of the lack of BA. If all you care about is that they get their OPS then .833 should be a little intriguing.

Thus I don't love the move. I've said over and over that I don't love the move. It's not a move that I would've made. I just think the reactions here are way more negative than they should be. Kepler's 2.1 bWAR is all defense. And defensive stats aren't something I care about because they're super unreliable. As shown a few comments up where another poster points out how low Gallo's OAA was during the 2016-2022 stretch and I counter with him being much better than Kepler in the same stretch according to the fielding bible. I don't want Kepler or Gallo. But I also don't want the jobs just handed to the young guys who haven't been great when they were healthy (Larnach has a ton to prove still. Like if he can hit off speed pitches at all, that wasn't a health thing), and Wallner's career ceiling is Gallo-esque, but I'm not banking on him jumping straight into the majors and doing that as a rookie who the league now has some tape on and will have a gameplan for him to start the year. Yes, a right handed bat would've been much better. Unfortunately there's not a whole lot of that left. It's why I was so upset to see the Twins wasted 2 months offering Correa 285 when they should've moved on and signed realistic targets like Mitch Haniger. I'm not telling people to like the move. I've said over and over that I don't love it. I'm just saying we're seeing the same overreaction that we do to almost every individual move. People freaked out like this over Beckham signing a minor league deal last year. Joey Gallo isn't the answer. I've said that over and over. This isn't some huge win. I graded it a C in the poll that's up. It's not a needle mover either direction. He's a nice insurance piece for after they trade Kepler which has felt like a foregone conclusion for weeks. It's not outrageous to think he's one of the guys who struggles under the bright lights of NY and LA (which is why I'm glad it's a 1 year deal, because that means he's probably not great in the playoffs and I don't want him around as part of the big picture plan) and will be back closer to his Texas self now that he's in a low/no-pressure situation. Comparing Gallo's salary to his pre-arb and arb years is disingenuous. Those weren't market rates. I said before he signed yesterday that I'd be open to bringing him in for less than 10 million if they traded Kepler. So 11 is higher than I'd like. But Bellinger has been nearly unplayable for 2 years in LA and he just got 17.5 guaranteed. This is the price of doing business on the open market. We need to stop being shocked that it costs more to sign free agents. That's just how it works.

Fielding Bible has Gallo at 42 DRS and Kepler at 48 since 2016. And that's with Kepler having 6700 innings to Gallo's 4116. Gallo with an OF Arm score of 24 to Kepler's 4. Gallo has 2 gold gloves if you care about such things. Gallo has long been considered an elite defender with an elite arm. He's every bit the defender Kepler is.

Oh, he's towards the front of their depth. Like 2nd best outfielder they have. He was brutal in NY and LA. No doubt about it. But he was a star in Texas. I don't love the move. My entire point is that it's crazy that so many people are acting like Gallo has no upside and we should just be clearing the way for the young players while ignoring the real possibility that the young players have no upside. I get it, the Ks are brutal. Not fun to watch. But he's a better defender than every one of the young guys, and it's not particularly close. He's shown, in 2 of the last 3 full seasons, that he can be an elite bat, even with the Ks. That's 2 more seasons than all the young guys combined have shown. Larnach and Kirilloff have had 2 seasons to show they can stay healthy and produce. They've failed both times (not blaming them, but let's not stick our heads in the sand and act like they're more than they are right now). Gordon has had 2 years to stay healthy and produce, and he's done it for half a year. Wallner is a 25 year old rookie who's a terrible defender, and his offensive ceiling is a poor man's Joey Gallo. Kepler is just a different version of Gallo. Elite defender with severely flawed bat (just different flaws). So, again, I don't love the move. It doesn't make them contenders suddenly. All I'm doing is trying to provide a little perspective on the situation. Yes, he was brutal last year, but so was Bellinger (he's actually been brutal for 2 years), and he got 17.5 million (minimum when you account for the 5.5 buyout). People need to get over their sticker shock. Either accept that free agents are more expensive than you'd like or stop asking for free agents to be signed. Free agents are expensive. The young guys don't deserve jobs being handed to them (unless you're asking for a rebuild, in which case you should be asking for trades of all the 1 year contract veterans). Joey Gallo is a 2 time all star and 2 time gold glove winner in 2 of the last 3 full seasons. None of that means we should be jumping for joy or the offseason is suddenly great, but suggesting it's unthinkable to pay someone with his proven upside 11 million for 1 year doesn't make sense to me. He's been a star in this league before. Something very few other guys on the roster can say.

Last deadline, as in trade deadline. They felt like they had a plan with bringing in arms and executed it pretty well, in my opinion. I was hoping that would then bleed into this offseason.

bWAR 2020- 1.6, 2021- 4.7 fWAR 2020- 1, 2021- 4.2

5 WAR from Kepler?! His career best year was 4. He topped 3 one other time. He's a 2 WAR player, but you think a handful of ground balls sneaking through the right side is going to make him a 5 WAR player?! That's quite the stretch.

Soft contact, leading to lots of pop ups to the outfield or grounders to second, is what the batted ball data says Kepler's problem is.

They've tried biting the bullet for 2 years now and it hasn't worked. That's why they still have so many holes on the roster. Had Larnach stayed healthy and produced in 2021 there'd be no thought of Gallo. Or if Larnach had stayed healthy and produced in 2022 there'd be no thought of Gallo. But he didn't. Either year. How many years are we biting this bullet and seeing what Larnach can do to stay healthy and produce? Again, I don't like the deal and it doesn't at all make this offseason successful. Simply pointing out that Gallo is a multi-time all star and gold glove winner and people are acting like the Twins just signed one of us. He's not a problem solver. He's simply more depth. He better not be their last move. But he's better than plenty of guys on the 40-man so the team is better today than it was yesterday. Projections are trash. I've looked at them. The Twins aren't hopping on fangraphs and saying "well dang, Gallo is only projected for 1.2 WAR this year, waste of time."

I don't care about projections. They're trash. I didn't say it was a good deal, or one they should've done. Simply pointed out that Gallo has had a better career than Kepler in the same number of years. They're not "blocking" the youth because the youth can't stay on the field. Larnach isn't blocked by anyone but himself and his inability to play for more than 2 months at a time. Same with Kirilloff. Wallner is incredibly unproven, and a terrible defender. If Gallo is the best player they're bringing in they shouldn't be bringing in outside guys. But we also need to stop acting like the young players on the Twins 40-man have earned starting spots on a major league team. They haven't. Hoping on the youth is no better than hoping on Gallo bouncing back. He's at least shown he's physically capable of being an elite major league hitter. I wouldn't want to bet on him getting back to his 2019 or 2021 self, but at least he had a 2019 and 2021 self while Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon haven't even been close. And none are as good defensively as him. I don't like the move, but let's stop acting like these young guys are more than they are to this point. Gallo is a 2 time all star and gold glove winner in the last 3 full seasons. The youth can only hope to achieve those things.

To be fair, he is the defender Kepler is. It's a wash defensively. He's elite. It's probably a wash offensively as well assuming he bounces back at all. Career numbers are on Gallo's side, but mostly just because his ups were higher. Both debuted in 2015. Gallo with .199/.325/.469/.794 slash line. Kepler .232/.317/.427/.744. Kepler for Gallo swap is pretty neutral overall, really.

So he's due for another great one? Right?

That would be my guess. Hopefully it's Kepler that gets moved and not any of the young guys.

It's definitely a bounce back play. Hoping he returns to his Texas numbers. He was terrible in NY and LA so maybe they're hoping less pressure means he's the 138 OPS+ guy he was in Texas in 2021 before they traded him and he cratered. His glove plays. But this isn't the type of moves they should've been making with all the money they have. Bounce backs shouldn't have been the plan this offseason.

Have to assume it means trades are coming. Not thrilled with the $11 million price tag, and they better make way more, and better, moves than this.

I hope you're sitting down, because Jeff Passan is reporting the Twins are signing Gallo to a 1 year, $11 million deal.

I'd be absolutely shocked if it were Lee. Not that he doesn't potentially have the talent, or that it wouldn't be the right move, to be in the majors in less than a calendar year after he was drafted, but that'd be lightning fast. We see some college arms show up in the bigs as relievers crazy fast, but even the elite college bats tend to take a little longer than that. I could be forgetting someone, but I don't believe any 2021 drafted bats have reached the majors yet. Torkelson made his debut last year after being picked in 2020, but that didn't go great. Maybe there's someone else from the 2020 draft, but I'm not thinking of them right now. I'm super high on both Lewis and Lee and expect them to be the left side of the infield starting in 2024 sometime, but Lee making the majors before the draft, or even the trade deadline, would be incredible. Not sure the Twins have the aggressiveness in them to make that happen. AA to start and he's more likely moving to AAA around the time Lewis is returning and hitting the major league field. All my money would be on Lewis in this one.

I mean that's the general idea with everyone they bring in. I think we want them all to produce ALOT. Again, my stance wasn't that they should be looking at Gallo as a big signing, or even the best guy available. All I said was that if they trade Kepler and replace him with Gallo for less than $10 million it'd be a net positive move since they would've gotten something for Kepler and Gallo for Kepler is basically a wash of elite defenders with severely flawed bats. That's all. You're the one who decided it'd be a bad signing no matter what unless he produced like a top 10 bat in baseball.

You'd be ok with it? There were exactly 7 major league hitters who hit 35 homeruns and over .230 last year. You'd be ok with him being 1 of 8 guys in all of baseball to do that? Even if you drop it down to 30 homeruns there were 18 guys in all of baseball to do it. Of the 21 guys to hit 30 homeruns last year (that's correct, only 21 guys in baseball hit 30 bombs) only 13 guys hit over .240. 11 guys with 30 homeruns and hit over .250. Gallo's career OBP is .325. Of those 21 hitters with 30 homers last year, only 15 of them had an OBP over .325. Just some numbers I found interesting in comparison to the type of hitter you expect Gallo to be just to be "ok with it." That doesn't even take into account his elite outfield defense.