chpettit19
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Everything posted by chpettit19
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Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
And I'd argue it'd only be begrudgingly for the first year or so. Or even just until his first walk-off bomb. May not even last a whole year. If he signs a 9 or 10 year deal there they aren't begrudging him for that whole deal. Especially if they win a title in 2023. All is forgiven and he's one of them. If he performs at a star level and wins multiple titles during his deal there he'd become an all-time Dodger great and be beloved. Not for 100% of fans, but for the vast majority of them. -
Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't remember that, but I'd think that the Dodgers shunning Bauer may have changed that equation for him. I have no idea, but I'd think Bauer not playing for them since that story came to light may mean something to Correa, or any other FA. Certainly and interesting piece to the puzzle, though. -
Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm impressed you were able to see a Twins player hit a homerun or make a great play at short and not cheer. That takes a lot. But did you stop watching or listening to or following Twins games? Will all those hardcore Dodger fans you know stop going to games, watching games, and buying merch? Will they stop clicking on Dodger related media? I think we all know the answer is "no" for 99.9% of them. So the FO doesn't care. Not even a little. And that's the point I'm combatting. Fans cheer for laundry. Even if the fans are just "putting up with" having Correa on the team they'll still show up, they'll still watch, they'll still spend their money. And if Correa has a great postseason on the way to a title it'll go from the most unbelievable, thunderous boos ever booed to the most unbelievable, thunderous cheers ever cheered. The FO doesn't care if fans just "put up with it." That's the point. The idea that the Dodgers wouldn't sign Correa cuz he's booed is not based in reality. You're more than entitled to feel however you want about Correa or anyone else you feel didn't act appropriately. I'm not going to get into a moral stance argument over baseball players. That's not the point. This article is about the Dodgers being interested in signing Carlos Correa. Some commenters have said the Dodgers would never do it because their fans hate him. My stance is that the Dodgers don't care. All they care about is putting the best team on the field they can because winning cures all in fandom. Not for 100% of fans, clearly. But for enough. And that's all they care about. The argument that the FO cares that he's booed and hated is wrong. Him cheating being the cause of the boos doesn't change the equation for the FO. They just want the best players because the fans will turn up and spend their money on the team if they win. End of story. -
Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah, fans of the current team don't care about history, they care about the current team. I assume your strong stance on Correa and those cheating Astros means you didn't cheer for Correa once this year, nor did you cheer for Marwin Gonzalez a single time during his 2 years with the team. If that isn't the case then I'm not far off at all, and am, in fact, directly on. The point I'm combatting is that teams won't sign, or trade for, a player because their fans don't like them. It's false, and has been proven so hundreds, if not thousands, of times over the years. The FO doesn't care about the fans booing Correa and will sign him if they think that's their best move to help the team win. Those fans booed all those other players and then they cheered for them. Just like Yankees fans booed Johnny Damon until he was wearing pinstripes. Just like Yanks fans booed Josh Donaldson until he was wearing pinstripes. Fan's memories are incredibly short, and the cheating doesn't change the situation at all. The Dodgers will attempt to sign Carlos Correa whether the fans have booed him or not if they believe he gives them the best chance to win. And while they're winning the fans will cheer for him. -
Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I bet those fans booed Mookie Betts and David Price for when they beat them in 2018, too. Probably booed Scherzer and Turner for when they knocked them out in 2019, too. Decent chance they weren't big Freddie Freeman fans after his Braves beat them in 2021 either. -
Rumor: Dodgers Interested in Carlos Correa
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Hasn't Turner made statements about being willing to stay with the Dodgers, but also very much being interested in getting back to the east coast? I believe every story about the Dodgers being interested in stars. Especially with so much money coming off their books this year. They want Judge. They want Correa. They want Turner. They want all of them. The question is how they prioritize them. I've also seen reports that Judge is their #1 target (Mookie moving to 2B is interesting there). Maybe Correa is their #2. I have no reason to think he wouldn't be since those are the 2 best players on the market. Fan boos isn't something the FO cares about, and the clubhouse won't care either as long as he performs. Kenta was on that Dodgers team, do we think he was enraged that the Twins signed Correa? That was 2017. Bellinger (maybe, he may get non-tendered), Turner, and Taylor are the only position players left on the Dodgers for 2023. Kershaw (I'm assuming he stays), Urias, and Buehler are the only pitchers left. That's a max of 6 guys left from that team. This narrative that they wouldn't sign him cuz of 2017 is complete nonsense to me. -
I agree things aren't what they need to be with the offense. My point is simply that Rowson hasn't done anything at all in Miami and 2019 was clearly an outlier so it really comes far more down to talent/players performing than anything. Maybe Rowson delivers his message in a way that the 2017-19 Twins processed well and the 2020-22 Marlins don't. Maybe he has a different strategy than the current coaches. I'd bet a lot that the current staff preaches a lot of the same stuff Rowson did since I don't think Rocco and the FO would hire someone with a drastically different approach to them. I don't know where the disconnect is, but certainly agree something needs to change. I also think the talent level needs to change as well. They need to get better hitters.
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Rowson is an interesting situation to look at. Here's some numbers. Twins runs scored per game since 2014 (3 years before Rowson arrived, his 3 seasons, and 3 seasons since he left): 2014- 4.41 (league average 4.06- 8% better than average) 2015- 4.29 (4.25- 1% better) 2016- 4.46 (4.47- <1% worse) Rowson Joins Staff 2017- 5.03 (4.65- 8% better) 2018- 4.55 (4.45- 2% better) 2019- 5.80 (4.83- 20% better) Rowson Leaves 2020- 4.48 (4.64- 3% worse) 2021- 4.50 (4.53- 1% worse) 2022- 4.30 (4.28- <1% better) Marlins runs scored per game since 2014: 2014- 3.98 (4.06- 2% worse) 2015- 3.78 (4.25- 11% worse) 2016- 4.04 (4.47- 10% worse) 2017- 4.80 (4.65- 3% better) 2018- 3.64 (4.45- 18% worse) 2019- 3.80 (4.83- 21% worse) Rowson Joins Staff 2020- 4.38 (4.64- 6% worse) 2021- 3.84 (4.53- 15% worse) 2022- 3.62 (4.28- 15% worse) How comfortable do we feel giving Rowson credit for that 1 spike year?
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Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't understand the point of the Polanco trade. There's FA relievers available to sign that doesn't cost the team a top 4 hitter in the Twins lineup. Just go sign a reliever. Sign Rodon. And trade for Rosario (I don't know that Cleveland would deal him in the division without a sizeable overpay, but I like the idea of bringing him in in general). What's the reason for swapping out Polanco to fill a hole you could just fill on the open market? -
Do the Twins Have an Ace in the System?
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Prielipp is far and away the best chance in my eyes. But an ETA of 2025 goes directly against the idea of him being the best bet. He missed last year, but will be hitting the ground running this season. He needs to end this season at AA at the lowest, if not AAA. He was a dominant college arm with 2 MLB ready pitches (according to some). That guy can't take 3 seasons to debut if he's a candidate to be an ace. I wouldn't even close the door on him debuting out of the pen at the end of 2023. They got Lee to AA in half a season so getting Prielipp there, or beyond, during a full season should be more than doable. He'll be on an innings limit, but that shouldn't stop him from advancing if he's shredding the low minors like he should. Prielipp making it to AAA or the majors in 2023 is the Twins best chance to develop an Ace anytime soon.- 22 replies
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- connor prielipp
- marco raya
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Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree that everyone should always be available for the right price. Including Jorge. I just think you're playing a real risky game if the plan is multiple trades and multiple signings to fill the C, SS, SP, and BP holes. Trading someone like Jorge shouldn't happen until the end of the offseason when you see where the holes are that you couldn't fill for just $ without losing major leaguers. The more moves, and especially trades, you make the higher you run the risk of being caught with a gaping hole somewhere when 1 move doesn't end up happening. Or 2 moves. Or 3. And then you're really screwed. It's all well and good to say "I'd trade Jorge and Lee for pitching, Kepler for a 2B, Gray for a SS, sign a SP, and move prospects for BP pieces" but when the Jorge and Lee move falls through after you traded Gray for a SS your rotation is even worse and you missed on signing the big FA arms while you were working on the Jorge deal so now you're back to scrap heaps and praying for prospects to pan out. Or you can't find a 2B or SS trade and won't pay for the stars so after you've traded Jorge and Lee you've got 2 gigantic defensive holes in the middle of your infield with limited shifting abilities to make up for it. It's possible to make multiple moves and move the holes in your roster from 1 position to another while banking on filling that new hole in a new move, but it just increases the likelihood that you miss on a deal and are left standing with no way to fix the holes. They could go: Jorge and Lewis for Lopez and Rojas (basing this on the multiple reports of Marlins demanding Torres and Peraza at the deadline for Lopez and Rojas) Gray for a 2B Sign Narvaez at C Sign a Gray level, or better, pitcher to cover that hole Sign a SS better than 34 year old, can't hit at all Rojas to cover that hole (or live with him til Lewis is ready?) Combination of FA signings and Kepler trade for BP arms But to me the easier option is to keep Jorge and Lewis and sign Rodon. Now you don't have to trade Gray and your rotation is improved and set. You can sign Iglesias to do the same thing Rojas would at SS til Lewis is ready, or, and I'd prefer, sign Correa or Turner. Either way SS is filled to the same degree as the "trade Jorge for pitching" scenario, but you still have Jorge at 2B. Since that scenario included signing a C that remains the same. And fixing the BP can still be sign FA and trade Kepler. I just don't see the reason to trade Jorge, or one of their few top prospects, when they have so much money to spend and could fill their holes without losing any of the above average players they have. I just don't think the Twins have anywhere close to a surplus of talented major leaguers so moving any of them means moving top prospects as well if you're going to actually upgrade the ML roster and the Twins don't have extra top prospects to move. I don't see this org as well setup to make more trades after what they did at the deadline. And they have money to spend. Fill the holes that way so the talent level is doing nothing but going up. As for the 40 man, my stance is that they have plenty of low end guys they could DFA without concern in order to bring in better major leaguers. I see an easy path to 6 open spots right now to protect rule 5 guys. Then there's plenty of guys that I'd move on from if/when I could get a better player in their spot. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I mean we can make some pretty educated guesses. I feel quite confident in saying the Marlins are not trading 2 of their pitchers in 1 deal. It's generally a bad idea as it doesn't maximize your return. Especially when it's a deal that doesn't even include a single elite talent in return. And why would they want a lesser pitcher who ended the year on the IL with shoulder problems, and has less team control, in return? That deal hurts their rotation without improving their offense (they have Larnach lite already, his name is JJ Bleday) so I'm very confident they wouldn't accept that deal. And I'm not sure why we'd trade Arraez and Gray for Jansen. Real bad idea to pay full price for a part time catcher coming off a career season. Especially if you're going to turn around and trade Jeffers. You're in the same spot of needing a 2nd catcher who's good enough to start at least half the games next year. The team has $60M we should be expecting them to spend in free agency this offseason. There's no need to trade major leaguers when that's the case. Go out and sign the help you need to fill holes instead of trying to fill 1 hole while creating another. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1. Defensive metrics are trash. 2. If you've decided Arraez's 2nd half stats mean he's on his way to being an empty .280 hitter soon I'm pretty sure major league teams have figured that out as well and he's got 0 trade value already. What realistic trade do you think they can get for either of them that improves the 2023 MN Twins as a whole? They're both top 4 hitters in the lineup, do you think a team is trading a different top 4 bat for one of them? You'd need a perfect situation to find a team that has a 2B hole that they think can be filled by one of those guys and they also have a top 4 bat at C, SS, or RH cOF that they'd be willing to ship out for one of those 2. I can't think of any team with multiple top 4 bats at either C or SS so can't fill either of those holes by trading one of those 2, and a RH cOF is super easy to fill without having to trade away one of your top 4 hitters. Nobody is trading frontline starting pitching for either of those guys. Not even in a package, because no team thinks they have so much frontline starting pitching that they can compete in 2023 even after trading some away for a 2B and some prospects. You could get some prospect arms back for a package built around one of these guys, but the Twins don't need that, they need current MLB players that can improve their major league team. So the only option left is trading them for bullpen help. I personally wouldn't trade either of them for a bullpen piece, but you may feel different on that, which is completely fine. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm making the statement on my own. I don't think he's even remotely good enough defensively to be an everyday 2B (especially without the shift), and I think if his knees couldn't hold up for the entire season playing 72% of his games at 1B and DH this season they really couldn't hold up for an entire season if he was an everyday 2B. And the Twins wouldn't move Polanco back to SS because they didn't want his ankles dealing with the extra stress there so I'm not sure why we'd think they'd move Arraez off 1B to 2B with the shift disappearing where his knees would be under significantly greater stress. My belief is that Arraez vs Polanco is not an apples to apples comparison. Polanco is an everyday 2B, Arraez is not. They're not a 1 for 1 proposition. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Arraez is no longer a 2B. That's my problem with all of this "trade Polanco" talk. The Twins don't currently have a logjam at 2B. They have 1 major league quality 2B in the org right now and his name is Jorge Polanco. Arraez can't play a full season there, especially without the shift where his lack of range would be killer. Arraez is a DH/1B/3B in that order. I don't see him as part of this conversation at all, and I'd bet the team doesn't either. As for the prospects, that's all they are. Julien and Martin are fun to think about right now cuz they're tearing up the AFL, but Julien is not a good defender, and Martin has to hit for more than 3 weeks before he's any part of the major league equation. I don't see any player anywhere in the org that is at all capable of being the opening day 2B outside of Polanco. Why would we trade one of the few above average players we have left on the roster? Nobody is pushing Jorge out right now. Trading him would be a self inflicted wound that I think is completely unnecessary. They can spend to fill every hole they have. Why create a hole at 2B to attempt to fill a hole that can be filled simply by spending? -
Record Starting Contract on the Twins Docket Next?
chpettit19 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
deGrom on a low years, high AAV deal is intriguing. He's the best pitcher on the planet when healthy. I wouldn't be super excited to add another high injury risk to the roster, but at least this one has "best in baseball" upside. Otherwise, it's Rodon or Bassitt. I'd be happy with either one, even if Rodon has injury risk and Bassitt isn't quite a true #1 in my eyes.- 38 replies
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- ervin santana
- jacob degrom
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Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Miranda and Arraez make a perfectly fine 1B, and AK is better there than the OF, so I wouldn't be looking to make any sort of splash at 1B. So I'm just seeing catcher, SS, and BP guys (I'd also like a Rodon type signing, but not holding my breath). That's 4 guys. And I think they have easily 4 spots on the 40 they can clear. I don't create a hole at 2B (and that's what I think would happen if you trade Polo) to fill another hole. I just don't see trading Jorge being a ticket to upgrading the team overall so I wouldn't want to trade one of their few established above average players. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the difference is that the top 3B prospect in the org (Miranda) has already graduated and is on the major league team. He's not established as he'll need to show he can make adjustments in his 2nd season, but he's shown he can hit major league pitching. You're not clearing a spot for an unknown by moving on from Urshela (and for the record I wouldn't move on from him). Moving on from Polanco would be to clear a spot for an unknown or Arraez who's knees pretty clearly can't handle a full season at 2B and is a fielder who will struggle mightily at 2B without the shift. I don't believe in the "logjam" theory others do. You don't have a logjam until you have too many proven, healthy major leaguers for all 26 spots. The Twins don't have more than 26 proven, healthy major leaguers, in my opinion. -
Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If they trade Polanco they should trade every veteran and start over. I don't see how you improve the team by trading him. Seattle is not giving up Hancock for Polanco. Nobody is giving up a pitcher better than Gray for Polanco. The only hope for a better team without Polanco than with Polanco is if you're trading him to clear money to sign Correa, Turner, and Rodon. There are no prospects that deserve space on the MLB team be cleared for them. There's some solid guys that should get chances throughout 2023, but none have proven they can help the Twins win and deserve a spot out of ST for a winning club. If they're trying to win they need to keep Jorge Polanco. If they're starting over they need to trade Kepler, Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Gio, Lopez, and any other veteran I'm forgetting (Buxton has a no trade clause) and start over. Don't rearrange the deck chairs. Either sink the titanic and start over or go in and reinforce the hull so it can handle more iceberg damage and keep on truckin. -
The Reclamation Starters for Twins Need to End
chpettit19 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Archer and the team were pretty open about him not being a relief option because of how much work went into getting him ready to pitch each time. I don't disagree that they seem to give some guys extra chances for contract, or trade, costs, but Archer doesn't seem to be one as his situation was more about just physically not being able to get loose on notice in order to relieve.- 37 replies
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- derek falvey
- thad levine
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This would be the worst possible direction they could go, in my opinion. Either blow it up or go big. Returning with darn near the same team next year would be a disaster in my eyes. If you're going young, go young. If you're trying to really compete in 2023 then you need to add some veterans significantly better than Iglesias, Leon, and Boxberger. This team just wastes a season of service time for the young guys while not actually competing. Time to S or get off the pot and pick a direction. If they're not significantly upgrading the roster don't stop with Gio and Kepler in trades. Send Mahle and Gray back out. Move Polanco. See what you can get for Maeda, Lopez, and Thielbar. Blow it up and start over or actually invest in going for it.
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Edouard Julien Can Take the Next Step in 2023
chpettit19 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm not suggesting rushing him, but am suggesting not holding him back. It's the orgs job to know when someone is ready. The Braves continue to call guys up who are dominating AA and never even play in AAA and those guys are excelling. If Julien is ready at some point in 2023 and there's an opening there's no reason not to call him up. He'll be on the 40 man already. He should definitely start in AAA, but once they get beyond the first 2 weeks of the season there's not even service time concerns when I comes to calling him up. If he's ready and he can help the Twins win games call him up. That's all I'm saying. Don't force him up before he's ready, but don't make him stay in AAA just to keep him in AAA. And, while 24 may not be old, Julien would definitely prefer to get his service clock ticking ASAP. Holding him in AAA all year "just because" would literally cost him millions when it pushes his free agency opportunity into his age 30+ seasons. -
Twins Need to Fix Revolving Door Up the Middle
chpettit19 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The premise wasn't that they need a "veteran superstar shortstop to win a title." The premise was "the revolving door part." The premise was that they need some consistency. I mean Christian Guzman was used as the example and it was acknowledged that he wasn't a good player, let alone a superstar. The suggestion of Correa is based on him being the best option to provide stability at the position. The premise was about having a SS start multiple seasons in a row. Not re-signing Correa means that revolving door of a new player at one of the 4 most vital positions on the field will continue for another year.- 23 replies
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- carlos correa
- cristian guzman
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