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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I do. I'm saying that fans call for a return to those Ryan days and point at him as a success and they just wish the Twins would bring someone like him back so they can be "good again" when the current regime isn't doing any worse than he did. I don't care if they fire this FO. I don't think they should, but wouldn't be upset if they did. These guys already at least ushered them into the 21st century so whoever would replace them wouldn't have to completely rebuild the development systems and bring in actual 21st century strategies like Falvey and Levine had to do.
  2. chpettit19
    He maybe didn't have hype coming in, but he very much had hype during the early 2000s despite having a losing record for his first 7 seasons. Falvey also took over during a very low time in Twins history. "Total system failure" was the way the previous season was described. That's not exactly easy times. Nostalgia is very likely a large part of it. People remembering those early 2000s teams happily and enjoying the way those teams played. Fans want those days back despite those teams also completely failing in the playoffs. Were just more enjoyable teams to watch with a fun core. I have no problem with anyone of any age wanting things to be different, I'm just trying to keep some perspective when we're talking about the current regime. Most calls are for a return to an idealized past that never really existed. As time has gone on Ryan is remembered for these great teams despite never really overseeing a great team, and overseeing more bad ones than good ones. 7 teams over .500 in 18 seasons. This regime is taking over from "total system failure" and some people want them out after 6 years despite it taking 8 for Ryan to really get going. The fans calling for Falvey's head very well may have also been calling for Ryan's back in the 90s, I don't know. I wouldn't even be that upset if they were removed. I think they updated the development systems and that's a contribution that shouldn't be discounted, but is also something that a new regime could keep in place. Or maybe it's just a little shakeup needed and Levine needs to go, but Falvey stays. Or they need a new manager who will push back on their ideas more. I don't know. I think a lot of the pushback on them is more about a certain segment of the fans not liking the changes that have taken place in MLB in general. Bunting, 3 true outcomes, short starts, etc. are general baseball problems, not just Twins problems. Falvey, Levine, and Rocco have earned some fan ire for sure. Maybe they should be fired. I just want people to keep perspective on some things. Ryan wasn't a great GM, and the Twins style of play is pretty standard for 2022 MLB. Derek Falvey, for what it's worth, has also taken the time to chat with me on multiple occasions, and I've never heard about him not being kind to people.
  3. chpettit19
    And I told you I don't have that because I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber, and there's no reason for Gleeman to post entire data sets in his articles. What reason do you have to not believe baseball prospectus? Either you think Gleeman is lying about what baseball prospectus' chart said, or you think baseball prospectus is using some sort of bad data that would artificially boost the Twins numbers. Do you have a reason not to trust the BP WAR calculations beyond you just not agreeing that the Twins should be 2nd on that list?
  4. chpettit19
    Again, if the shoulder issue is not structural then I extend him. Not structural would imply that no surgery is needed. I'm not a doctor and haven't seen his medical records so I don't know the extent of his shoulder problem.
  5. chpettit19
    18 years in and Twins fans were ready to give up on him? Wow, impressive. He didn't have a team reach .500 until his 8th season in charge. Had teams over .500 in 7 of 18 seasons in charge. And is still revered as a great GM and there are still fans on these very threads that ask for a return to a Ryan type GM so we can get back to being a good baseball team. I'm sorry for the hyperbole as I know you'd never stoop to such things. Just pointing out the very different response the Ryan regime gets compared to the Falvey one despite there being very little difference beyond the word "analytics" being used much more with Falvey. Ryan's teams bunted more while they lost so a large number of fans want his teams back. Just pointing out that what some fans find to be a "fine job" and what will "doom us to mediocrity" is lacking in some logic.
  6. chpettit19
    Yes. Based on the FO and how they seem to do things, I don't know if he's an extension candidate to them based on contract demands, but I'd try to extend him assuming the shoulder issue isn't something structural. And at this point it's hard to trust the team medical people on that. But he's hit the IL twice in 6 MLB seasons so I don't think the injury concern is too high. And I think he's a solid #2, great #3 if your rotation is really good. So I'd extend him.
  7. chpettit19
    He literally quoted Baseball Prospectus' data. I don't understand what you're asking for. He went on Baseball Prospectus and looked up their list of WAR lost due to injury. Filtered it by the highest WAR to the lowest. The 2nd name on that list was the Minnesota Twins. I don't get why you think he needs to put the chart itself in his article. His articles would get awfully long if he put every chart he used in it. I don't get how you can suggest literally quoting the site is him not providing the data. He didn't make up the stat and put Baseball Prospectus' name on it.
  8. chpettit19
    No. He unquestionably has a reputation for dragging the low budget Twins to prominence by being an innovator and finding market inefficiencies to make a winner out of nothing. When the reality is his teams won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons. He is held in very high regard despite never really accomplishing anything.
  9. chpettit19
    Terry Ryan won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons and he's treated like the greatest GM in the history of sports around these parts.
  10. chpettit19
    While I'm generally on board with these thoughts, Mahle is 27 and Paddack is 26, so not exactly old. Certainly have their own very real injury concerns (although I think the Mahle stuff is blown out of proportion. Plenty of people on these boards wanted them to get Montas but he'd also just missed time with a shoulder issue), but they aren't old. So there should be real hope for Mahle since he hadn't had any other injury problems other than a hamstring back in 2019. Paddack is a wild card coming back from TJ 2.
  11. chpettit19
    "According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries" That is the relevant part. I don't have all the hard data as I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber. But 2nd in baseball means there's only 1 other team that was hurt more by injuries. Pick whatever team you want to be there. Chicago seems to have been your thought. Either way, a neutral company who couldn't care less about making the Twins look good or bad says they've lost the 2nd most WAR in baseball to injuries this year. Not even counting the Buxton rest days when he wasn't on the IL. That's pretty relevant to this talk about how much the team lost to injuries.
  12. chpettit19
    Mr Gleeman just wrote about this 2 days ago, actually. Here's a paragraph from his article: "They’ve placed a league-high 31 players on the injured list for a total of 1,928 days lost, second-most in the AL, including 10 players out at least 100 days. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries, a clear link between the days lost and games lost."
  13. chpettit19
    What's your point here? That I'm right about bunting as a strategy for producing runs being bad, but also right about there being situations where it does make sense? Yes, bunting late in games when you know you need just 1 run can be a smart move. No, the Twins laying down more sacrifices in order to "manufacture runs" throughout the year wouldn't help this offense.
  14. chpettit19
    I didn't at all suggest Petty wasn't doing well or can't be very good, so I'm not sure what isn't fair. And his breaking ball was considered to show real promise coming out of high school (you can find the phrase "flashes plus" and 55 grades all over the place for it coming out of high school). So I'm not sure where this "questionable secondary pitches" narrative is coming from. Sure, there's the typical question of developing a changeup type pitch for any power high school arm as none of them need a changeup to dominate hs hitters when they can throw 100, but that's the same concern as 99% of high school power arms. I'm not trying to justify the Gray trade by suggesting Petty hasn't been good or won't be good. I'd do the trade today knowing what kind of season both of them have had. Or are we supposed to expect the Twins to only trade non-prospects for above average major league talent? Both teams can "win" this trade. Most of the time trades are made with the idea that both teams will "win" them in the end because the teams have different goals. The Twins needed to upgrade their rotation for 2022 and 2023. The Reds were selling and looking to build for the future. This trade accomplished both of those goals. 1 prospect for an above average major league starter is a smart trade. Even if that prospect turns into the next Max Scherzer. So, no, I will not look back at this as a very bad trade no matter what Petty becomes. You can look back at it however you want, though. And I haven't seen Petty make any top 100 lists yet. Fangraphs still has him at a 40+ FV and 14th ranked in the Reds system. MLB.com has him 9th in their system. Don't have a baseball america account so can't confirm, but looks like they might have him 7th in the system. Keith Law only updated his top 60 midseason, but he wasn't in the top 60 or honorable mentions (Emmanuel Rodriguez did jump up to number 53 so that's exciting), and he wasn't in his preseason top 100 list. The Athletic also did an article about the Reds system after the trade deadline and he wasn't in the top 10 system prospects for 2023 after they took out the graduations from this year. So I guess there's still some industry hesitation on him.
  15. chpettit19
    For sure. My bigger concern would be someone like SWR who's not to 100 innings yet this year after he was wildly mismanaged last year with his trip to the Olympics where he didn't throw a single pitch. He's 21 in AAA doing well, but will barely crack 100 innings on the year. That is not ideal for him as you'd like him to be at 150+ next year when he hopefully gets the call to Minneapolis. Prielipp is another one who I'd like to see get a ton of innings next year, but my guess is that this FO will have him on a relatively strict inning count coming off his lost 2022 season. The other guys the Twins have been calling up lately aren't guys with much of a chance to be true frontline guys. Overall, though, I just push back on people who blindly throw out minor league inning counts to try to prove the Twins are developing nothing but 5 inning starters. The Twins very well may be only developing 5 inning starters, but that's because they may just not be developing anyone good enough to really front a rotation and throw 200+ innings like they were doing with Berrios, not because they're totally unwilling to let anyone go deeper. The Twins need to start finding, and collecting, true top pitching prospects. Better than SWR/Balazovic/etc. Prielipp may be one. Maybe Raya? But otherwise most of their young arms aren't equipped to be what the team really needs at the front of the rotation, unfortunately. But if they could fill the 2-5 spots and most of the pen with young guys maybe they'd finally spend on a #1 in free agency? Haha, not even I think that dream will ever come true! And now I'm sad ?
  16. chpettit19
    It's exciting, but also a little frustrating, to see the Twins turn Ober and Varland types into major league pitchers after being late round picks. Just need them to hit on some of these higher round picks and get some #1 pitchers out of things! Laweryson looks like he could at least snag a pen role in the bigs at some point, and even that would be a very nice development for him. I hope he continues to develop and we see him in Minneapolis next year sometime!
  17. chpettit19
    Oh, I'm with you. I'm not suggesting they sit back and assume these things happen. I'd resign Correa to a 7 year deal and then figure out what to do with the excess after that if/when Lewis and Lee establish themselves, and Miranda shows that this is who he is moving forward and the league doesn't figure him out. Was just having a little fun with that proposed hypothetical of those 4 reaching their peaks and manning the IF for the Twins for the next 7-10 years. Need a few happy thoughts during this injury riddled stretch of brutal Twins baseball.
  18. chpettit19
    In this hypothetical I think I go Lee-Lewis-Arraez-Miranda from left to right. Definitely Lee and Lewis on the left side, though. They have significantly better arms than the other 2 so they're the ones I want making the longer throws. It's fun to dream on what this team can be if those 4 hit their peaks. And you add in that OF trio at their peaks and the offense looks really nice, and cheap! There are some real things to hope on for the future of the Twins. Let's hope they are able to make smart moves to supplement the young guys while getting the young guys to perform to the best of their potentials!
  19. chpettit19
    Outs are bad. A productive out is better than a non-productive out. But both are bad. Teams no longer find it useful to freely give up an out to advance a base runner 1 base (especially from 1st to 2nd) when it doesn't actually increase your chance of scoring. You may not like it, but that's the new reality of the league and it's not going to ever get back to the point where offenses are willing to give up their most valuable asset for anything outside of an actual run scored. It was a recurring dream for 100 years that pitchers didn't throw splitters either. Do you want Duran or Maeda to quit throwing their splitters because nobody threw one for 100 years? We've gotten smarter and adjusted how we play the game because of it. Sacrifice bunts are bad baseball outside of a couple very specific situations. For 100 years it was also every team's dream to have a SS who could field, but not hit. Same with 2nd basemen. No 2B are expected to be legit bats and a SS better be able to hit and field. You can ponder whatever you want, but the provable fact is that bunting is bad strategy. I'm sorry if you don't like that change in the game, but it's one you're going to have to accept. (Now bunting for a hit against the shift is a different story, but with the shift ban next year it's probably a less useful tool)
  20. chpettit19
    I think he has a real shot at it. Should start the year at AA and then it's just a matter of strong performance and the right injury to a major leaguer or 16 like this year.
  21. chpettit19
    If any of the guys you just listed were still prospects come 2024 there'd be absolutely nothing to be excited about. Those are all college guys who need to be graduating next year if they're to be looked at as top 5 system prospects in any system. Steer is already in the bigs. If they aren't all getting major league time in 2023 the Twins did a great job trading them. So I strongly disagree that the top 5 for 2024 would look any better with those guys still around.
  22. chpettit19
    For what it's worth the Twins pull the ball 39.3% of the time vs 38% league average. Go to center 35.5% vs 37% league average. And go oppo 25.2% vs 25.1% league average. Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Celestino all have quite nicely dispersed spray charts. So I guess the Twins are able and willing to develop that particular skill in at least some of their prospects. And nobody bunts anymore. You're going to have to give up on that dream. There are very few situations where bunting makes sense.
  23. chpettit19
    Sure, there's a difference in the HS vs College guy situation. But the argument around here tends to be people trying to connect minor league inning numbers to the major league team pulling guys early and saying they're developing nothing but 5 inning pitchers and will never let guys go deep. I don't particularly like the 5 inning start situation for the Twins, or baseball in general, but there's way more variables to the minor league numbers than people around here tend to use. For example, Varland was top 15 in all of affiliated minor league baseball in innings pitched before he got his call up. The lack of depth in starts in the minors shouldn't automatically be connected to the major league team pulling guys early. Minor leaguers have never thrown competitive innings for this long of a season. It's more than building up in game arm strength and being able to go 7 innings a start, it's about being able to make starts from April through October. You can go around and look at the Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer types minor league inning totals, and they weren't down there throwing 200 innings a season either. It's a false connection people try to make. Even though I understand the tendency to do it based on the current major league pitcher usage.
  24. chpettit19
    David Festa has thrown 103.2 innings in his first year. Travis Adams is at 100.2. Povich had thrown 78.2 before he was traded which was a 103 inning pace. Pierson Ohl only has 91.2 so I guess he's trailing everyone by a lot. I assume the exclamation point on Petty's innings is just excitement that he's doing what a number of other Twins 2021 pitcher draft picks are doing. And Festa has a 2.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 108/34 K/BB ratio as a 13th round pick. Petty being younger does give him an edge, but turning Petty into 2 years of Gray and still developing a pitcher with those kinds of numbers is a pretty big win for the FO I'd think. Steer would've been a nice fill in for Polanco going down, but Mahle being in the rotation would've been nicer. That injury makes that deal less appealing for sure. Strand will be interesting to follow. He's likely a DH in the majors so he's going to have to maintain those numbers as he moves up to have value. But I'll take Miranda and Lee over those 2. Steer is older than Miranda, and Strand is older than Lee. If the Twins are willing to let Lee advance quickly, if he earns it, I'd much rather have Miranda, Lee, and Mahle over Steer and Strand in an already crowded infield.
  25. chpettit19
    Very well said!
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