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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    He literally quoted Baseball Prospectus' data. I don't understand what you're asking for. He went on Baseball Prospectus and looked up their list of WAR lost due to injury. Filtered it by the highest WAR to the lowest. The 2nd name on that list was the Minnesota Twins. I don't get why you think he needs to put the chart itself in his article. His articles would get awfully long if he put every chart he used in it. I don't get how you can suggest literally quoting the site is him not providing the data. He didn't make up the stat and put Baseball Prospectus' name on it.
  2. chpettit19
    No. He unquestionably has a reputation for dragging the low budget Twins to prominence by being an innovator and finding market inefficiencies to make a winner out of nothing. When the reality is his teams won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons. He is held in very high regard despite never really accomplishing anything.
  3. chpettit19
    Terry Ryan won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons and he's treated like the greatest GM in the history of sports around these parts.
  4. chpettit19
    While I'm generally on board with these thoughts, Mahle is 27 and Paddack is 26, so not exactly old. Certainly have their own very real injury concerns (although I think the Mahle stuff is blown out of proportion. Plenty of people on these boards wanted them to get Montas but he'd also just missed time with a shoulder issue), but they aren't old. So there should be real hope for Mahle since he hadn't had any other injury problems other than a hamstring back in 2019. Paddack is a wild card coming back from TJ 2.
  5. chpettit19
    "According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries" That is the relevant part. I don't have all the hard data as I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber. But 2nd in baseball means there's only 1 other team that was hurt more by injuries. Pick whatever team you want to be there. Chicago seems to have been your thought. Either way, a neutral company who couldn't care less about making the Twins look good or bad says they've lost the 2nd most WAR in baseball to injuries this year. Not even counting the Buxton rest days when he wasn't on the IL. That's pretty relevant to this talk about how much the team lost to injuries.
  6. chpettit19
    Mr Gleeman just wrote about this 2 days ago, actually. Here's a paragraph from his article: "They’ve placed a league-high 31 players on the injured list for a total of 1,928 days lost, second-most in the AL, including 10 players out at least 100 days. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries, a clear link between the days lost and games lost."
  7. chpettit19
    What's your point here? That I'm right about bunting as a strategy for producing runs being bad, but also right about there being situations where it does make sense? Yes, bunting late in games when you know you need just 1 run can be a smart move. No, the Twins laying down more sacrifices in order to "manufacture runs" throughout the year wouldn't help this offense.
  8. chpettit19
    I didn't at all suggest Petty wasn't doing well or can't be very good, so I'm not sure what isn't fair. And his breaking ball was considered to show real promise coming out of high school (you can find the phrase "flashes plus" and 55 grades all over the place for it coming out of high school). So I'm not sure where this "questionable secondary pitches" narrative is coming from. Sure, there's the typical question of developing a changeup type pitch for any power high school arm as none of them need a changeup to dominate hs hitters when they can throw 100, but that's the same concern as 99% of high school power arms. I'm not trying to justify the Gray trade by suggesting Petty hasn't been good or won't be good. I'd do the trade today knowing what kind of season both of them have had. Or are we supposed to expect the Twins to only trade non-prospects for above average major league talent? Both teams can "win" this trade. Most of the time trades are made with the idea that both teams will "win" them in the end because the teams have different goals. The Twins needed to upgrade their rotation for 2022 and 2023. The Reds were selling and looking to build for the future. This trade accomplished both of those goals. 1 prospect for an above average major league starter is a smart trade. Even if that prospect turns into the next Max Scherzer. So, no, I will not look back at this as a very bad trade no matter what Petty becomes. You can look back at it however you want, though. And I haven't seen Petty make any top 100 lists yet. Fangraphs still has him at a 40+ FV and 14th ranked in the Reds system. MLB.com has him 9th in their system. Don't have a baseball america account so can't confirm, but looks like they might have him 7th in the system. Keith Law only updated his top 60 midseason, but he wasn't in the top 60 or honorable mentions (Emmanuel Rodriguez did jump up to number 53 so that's exciting), and he wasn't in his preseason top 100 list. The Athletic also did an article about the Reds system after the trade deadline and he wasn't in the top 10 system prospects for 2023 after they took out the graduations from this year. So I guess there's still some industry hesitation on him.
  9. chpettit19
    For sure. My bigger concern would be someone like SWR who's not to 100 innings yet this year after he was wildly mismanaged last year with his trip to the Olympics where he didn't throw a single pitch. He's 21 in AAA doing well, but will barely crack 100 innings on the year. That is not ideal for him as you'd like him to be at 150+ next year when he hopefully gets the call to Minneapolis. Prielipp is another one who I'd like to see get a ton of innings next year, but my guess is that this FO will have him on a relatively strict inning count coming off his lost 2022 season. The other guys the Twins have been calling up lately aren't guys with much of a chance to be true frontline guys. Overall, though, I just push back on people who blindly throw out minor league inning counts to try to prove the Twins are developing nothing but 5 inning starters. The Twins very well may be only developing 5 inning starters, but that's because they may just not be developing anyone good enough to really front a rotation and throw 200+ innings like they were doing with Berrios, not because they're totally unwilling to let anyone go deeper. The Twins need to start finding, and collecting, true top pitching prospects. Better than SWR/Balazovic/etc. Prielipp may be one. Maybe Raya? But otherwise most of their young arms aren't equipped to be what the team really needs at the front of the rotation, unfortunately. But if they could fill the 2-5 spots and most of the pen with young guys maybe they'd finally spend on a #1 in free agency? Haha, not even I think that dream will ever come true! And now I'm sad ?
  10. chpettit19
    It's exciting, but also a little frustrating, to see the Twins turn Ober and Varland types into major league pitchers after being late round picks. Just need them to hit on some of these higher round picks and get some #1 pitchers out of things! Laweryson looks like he could at least snag a pen role in the bigs at some point, and even that would be a very nice development for him. I hope he continues to develop and we see him in Minneapolis next year sometime!
  11. chpettit19
    Oh, I'm with you. I'm not suggesting they sit back and assume these things happen. I'd resign Correa to a 7 year deal and then figure out what to do with the excess after that if/when Lewis and Lee establish themselves, and Miranda shows that this is who he is moving forward and the league doesn't figure him out. Was just having a little fun with that proposed hypothetical of those 4 reaching their peaks and manning the IF for the Twins for the next 7-10 years. Need a few happy thoughts during this injury riddled stretch of brutal Twins baseball.
  12. chpettit19
    In this hypothetical I think I go Lee-Lewis-Arraez-Miranda from left to right. Definitely Lee and Lewis on the left side, though. They have significantly better arms than the other 2 so they're the ones I want making the longer throws. It's fun to dream on what this team can be if those 4 hit their peaks. And you add in that OF trio at their peaks and the offense looks really nice, and cheap! There are some real things to hope on for the future of the Twins. Let's hope they are able to make smart moves to supplement the young guys while getting the young guys to perform to the best of their potentials!
  13. chpettit19
    Outs are bad. A productive out is better than a non-productive out. But both are bad. Teams no longer find it useful to freely give up an out to advance a base runner 1 base (especially from 1st to 2nd) when it doesn't actually increase your chance of scoring. You may not like it, but that's the new reality of the league and it's not going to ever get back to the point where offenses are willing to give up their most valuable asset for anything outside of an actual run scored. It was a recurring dream for 100 years that pitchers didn't throw splitters either. Do you want Duran or Maeda to quit throwing their splitters because nobody threw one for 100 years? We've gotten smarter and adjusted how we play the game because of it. Sacrifice bunts are bad baseball outside of a couple very specific situations. For 100 years it was also every team's dream to have a SS who could field, but not hit. Same with 2nd basemen. No 2B are expected to be legit bats and a SS better be able to hit and field. You can ponder whatever you want, but the provable fact is that bunting is bad strategy. I'm sorry if you don't like that change in the game, but it's one you're going to have to accept. (Now bunting for a hit against the shift is a different story, but with the shift ban next year it's probably a less useful tool)
  14. chpettit19
    I think he has a real shot at it. Should start the year at AA and then it's just a matter of strong performance and the right injury to a major leaguer or 16 like this year.
  15. chpettit19
    If any of the guys you just listed were still prospects come 2024 there'd be absolutely nothing to be excited about. Those are all college guys who need to be graduating next year if they're to be looked at as top 5 system prospects in any system. Steer is already in the bigs. If they aren't all getting major league time in 2023 the Twins did a great job trading them. So I strongly disagree that the top 5 for 2024 would look any better with those guys still around.
  16. chpettit19
    For what it's worth the Twins pull the ball 39.3% of the time vs 38% league average. Go to center 35.5% vs 37% league average. And go oppo 25.2% vs 25.1% league average. Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Celestino all have quite nicely dispersed spray charts. So I guess the Twins are able and willing to develop that particular skill in at least some of their prospects. And nobody bunts anymore. You're going to have to give up on that dream. There are very few situations where bunting makes sense.
  17. chpettit19
    Sure, there's a difference in the HS vs College guy situation. But the argument around here tends to be people trying to connect minor league inning numbers to the major league team pulling guys early and saying they're developing nothing but 5 inning pitchers and will never let guys go deep. I don't particularly like the 5 inning start situation for the Twins, or baseball in general, but there's way more variables to the minor league numbers than people around here tend to use. For example, Varland was top 15 in all of affiliated minor league baseball in innings pitched before he got his call up. The lack of depth in starts in the minors shouldn't automatically be connected to the major league team pulling guys early. Minor leaguers have never thrown competitive innings for this long of a season. It's more than building up in game arm strength and being able to go 7 innings a start, it's about being able to make starts from April through October. You can go around and look at the Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer types minor league inning totals, and they weren't down there throwing 200 innings a season either. It's a false connection people try to make. Even though I understand the tendency to do it based on the current major league pitcher usage.
  18. chpettit19
    David Festa has thrown 103.2 innings in his first year. Travis Adams is at 100.2. Povich had thrown 78.2 before he was traded which was a 103 inning pace. Pierson Ohl only has 91.2 so I guess he's trailing everyone by a lot. I assume the exclamation point on Petty's innings is just excitement that he's doing what a number of other Twins 2021 pitcher draft picks are doing. And Festa has a 2.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 108/34 K/BB ratio as a 13th round pick. Petty being younger does give him an edge, but turning Petty into 2 years of Gray and still developing a pitcher with those kinds of numbers is a pretty big win for the FO I'd think. Steer would've been a nice fill in for Polanco going down, but Mahle being in the rotation would've been nicer. That injury makes that deal less appealing for sure. Strand will be interesting to follow. He's likely a DH in the majors so he's going to have to maintain those numbers as he moves up to have value. But I'll take Miranda and Lee over those 2. Steer is older than Miranda, and Strand is older than Lee. If the Twins are willing to let Lee advance quickly, if he earns it, I'd much rather have Miranda, Lee, and Mahle over Steer and Strand in an already crowded infield.
  19. chpettit19
    Very well said!
  20. chpettit19
    At this point I'd call this season a success if the Twins win a playoff game and break "the streak." And I actually think it'd be a really important win. Even if they lose the other 2 games in the wild card round. Taking that pressure off the 2023 team would be huge. They all tend to say the right things and act like "the streak" doesn't bother them cuz they weren't here for all of it, but they're human, and there is absolutely added pressure to not be on a team that extends the streak, even if you weren't on the team that started it. And I do think that a relatively healthy Twins team could take a game in the wild card round. If the injured team can get them there.
  21. chpettit19
    A large part of it is that the minors are more for building up season long stamina. Especially at the lower levels. Those kids have never thrown this many innings over this long of a season before so they're more concerned about having their arms be able to throw at the top of their game into September and October. So the minors are typically used more about building up season long inning counts to get the body better prepared for the shorter recovery time of the offseason between seasons before having to go another 8-9 months of pitching every 6 days.
  22. chpettit19
    Yikes.
  23. chpettit19
    Is that a different setup for Martin? He looked to have his hands up earlier than usual. Does anyone who watches the minor league games know if he's gotten rid of the hands low, bat straight up part of his setup or am I just seeing the tale end of his setup in that clip where his hands go up?
  24. chpettit19
    You're playing some semantics now, and trying to bounce around a bit. You started off with the stance of "To be honest I don't know how this team will every develop a top end starter with the limits they put on the minor league pitchers." because the Twins limit Varland "to 5 ish innings (not testing them with the TTO)" which were things easily disproven as I showed that almost every "top end starter" has limits put on them while they're in the minors, and that Varland isn't being limited because of TTO, but instead because of innings limits while trying to get him to throw deep into a season. You have a problem with him being 25, and that's fair. Most elite major league pitchers got to the bigs well before they were 25, but they were also drafted out of big schools or high in the first round and expected to move quickly. Varland wasn't and that's why we're talking about "manufacturing" a top prospect instead of simply drafting a guy in the first round and having him become what everyone thought/hoped he'd become. There is no reason to believe he will only be a "4-5 inning starter." The Twins let Ryan and Gray both go deep into games early in the season before they went on the IL, and, in Ryan's case, stopped being effective. They let Berrios throw 200 innings a year, and be on pace for it again before being traded. And, again, Varland isn't being limited to shorter starts this year because of a fear of the 3rd time seeing the order, but because he's thrown more innings this year than he ever has in his entire life and they are working on building season long arm strength. As far as what "top pitching prospect" means you can define it however you want. You can compare him to guys who actually became elite MLB pitchers, but that's not fair to him, or any other prospect. Or you can compare his numbers to the numbers of guys who were ranked high on prospect rankings and then it's a whole different argument. There are a ton of high picks who are highly ranked prospects that don't even make the bigs and have terrible minor league numbers. The Twins have a whole bunch of them over the last decade. Tyler Jay was a "top pitching prospect" at one point. Is Varland a better prospect than Jay in AA? I don't think it's even close. Tyler Jay didn't even make it to AAA let alone succeed there. So who's the "top pitching prospect" out of those 2? The guy who's name was on "the lists" or the guy actually succeeding? I mean if you're simply trying to say you don't think Varland is going to be Jacob deGrom then fine. You win. He's likely never going to be Jacob deGrom. But to suggest he's not a legit prospect with very impressive minor league numbers that hold up to all the "big name prospects" is simply ignoring the facts.
  25. chpettit19
    I mean Varland has been fighting the odds since he walked on campus in St Paul. Not a whole lot of MLB players coming out of Concordia St Paul. And, again, I'm not predicting he becomes a front line starter. The fact that he made it to AAA is an absolute success story for him, first and foremost, and the Twins development teams secondly. The fact that he continues to perform well and looks like he has a real shot at making the majors is encouraging for all involved. Pointing out that he's behind the elite, 1st round (or 4th in Webb's case) picks in progression at his age isn't breaking news at all. That's why the article is about "manufacturing" a prospect. He's a late round pick from a small school that has no business being where he is already. I'd say that kind of shows that "the odds" don't necessarily apply to him.
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