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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him. Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman. That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.
  2. chpettit19
    I think this is the most likely option as well. The interesting twist to it that I'm curious about is Solano starting at 2B for Polanco if Buxton is DHing against a lefty. Polanco is by no means brutal against lefties, but he's significantly worse against them than righties. And Solano is better against lefties than Polanco is. Wonder if we'll see Polanco sitting more this year than he has in the past, especially early, by using Solano as a platoon for him.
  3. chpettit19
    FYI, Larnach was playing games at the start of spring before he got hurt and took a week off. He doesn't fit in the same category as Polanco, Kirilloff, and Buxton.
  4. chpettit19
    To get to the core of what I think you're after, there's no real movement that will be taking place to "cheat" the rule at all (in my opinion). The IFers can't be in motion on the pitch so the best you could do is jump across the base as the ball is hit, but that isn't a natural move for a mIFer and would likely throw off their footwork more than it'd help anything.
  5. chpettit19
    It's the same with position players. I want to see the young guys, too. I'm excited to see what they can be. But we just watched a season get absolutely nuked because they didn't have anyone in AAA who had any real shot at stepping up and filling in for injuries on the major league roster. Extra depth is good, and needed!
  6. chpettit19
    The reporters ask Rocco/the Twins/Buxton and Polanco themselves basically everyday how they're doing. They get the same answer every time. Basically "they're good, they'll play in games soon enough, there's no reason to think they won't be in the opening day lineup." Some fans just don't believe that answer and think they're hiding injuries.
  7. chpettit19
    I don't know if you read the article about him and Popkins on The Athletic, but it was fascinating. Sounds like he spent most of last year fixing swing changes he'd made over the offseason. I'm hoping him not having to do that leads to his best season yet. Come into the season already feeling good in the box and hit the ground running. Very excited to see what he can do with the stick this year. His defense will be interesting to watch. Not being able to play as deep as he'd like will effect him, but how much? He's never been fast, but has been successful defensively because of his positioning, size, and arm. He can't take advantage of all that as well anymore so it'll be interesting to see how he looks now. Depending on how Lee and Lewis look we could maybe see the Correa to third shift happen sooner than expected. Not sure how open to that he'd be, but will be interesting to see how the rules effect him.
  8. chpettit19
    Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda.
  9. chpettit19
    Bailey Ober has cracked 100 innings 1 time in his professional career. Limited basis? He threw 56 innings for the Twins last year. Yeah, I'd say that's pretty limited. Devin Smeltzer threw 70.1 innings with an ERA of 3.71 for the Twins last year to put Ober's 56 innings in a little bit of perspective. I'm so confused by this idea that Ober is some workhorse while Maeda is some fragile flower who couldn't possibly throw 5+ innings a start. They're literally throwing the same amount right now. Since 2017 (when Bailey started his pro career) Maeda has thrown 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2 (2020), and 106.1 innings in the majors. Ober has thrown 84, 75, 78.2, 0 (2020), 108.1, and 72.2 innings. That's 586.1 innings for Maeda and 418.2 innings for Ober. There is no reason to think Bailey Ober is going to throw even 100 innings this year. None whatsoever. I like Ober. He's too good for AAA, and deserves an MLB job. But he's the most injury prone pitcher on the staff by a mile. Pretending he's less of an injury risk than Maeda is simply ignoring the entirety of his career. I hope he comes out and throws 120+ innings this year. It'd be awful team building for the Twins to expect him to. They can't rely on more than 75 innings from Ober this year. Starters come back from TJ every year and throw 120+ innings. Verlander threw 175 last year at the age of 39 after not having pitched since 2020. If Maeda can do 2/3s of that he'll already be at Ober's career high in innings pitched.
  10. chpettit19
    Why do you think "Maeda is a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings," but Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation? Ober has thrown 6 innings in 3 spring training games. 2 innings an appearance. Maeda has thrown 5.2 innings in 3 spring training games. Basically 2 innings an appearance. Why is 1 set for the 5-man rotation, but the other is "a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings?"
  11. chpettit19
    It's fascinating to me that people want to move Maeda because they don't trust him being able to throw a bunch of innings, but want to replace him with Ober who's cracked 100 innings in a season 1 time in his professional career. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Maeda getting more innings this year than Ober. And they're not sending Maeda to the pen to start the year unless they restructure that contract. It's simply not an option, and they'd never do it. Every agent they ever approach with an incentive laden deal in the future would point to them putting Maeda in the pen and say "there's no chance my guy signs a deal with incentives in it." I agree Ober is too good to be wasted in AAA, but he's also got to be handled in a way that makes it hard to put him on the ML roster if he's not in the rotation, and they don't want to run with a 6 man rotation. I do like the idea outlined above of having him wait until a couple weeks into April to arrive and join a 6 man rotation. That's an interesting plan I think could work well. Piggy backing could also work, and being able to get 8 or 9 innings out of Maeda and Ober every 5th day would be great. A long relief role for Ober would have to be very structured. With his injury concerns you can't have him sitting around waiting for random appearances. It's either piggyback him or send him to AAA in my mind.
  12. chpettit19
    He sure could change. I was just combatting the idea that the only reason he wasn't signed by a major league team is because he spoke out against Manfred and cheating pitchers. There's far more to it than that. And he's 31. He's not 21. He's given no reason to expect him to change. That doesn't mean he can't change, but he hasn't changed yet, and hasn't provided any evidence that he ever will, so why would a team expect him to? I'm just saying this is very much a self-made problem for him. He's not some innocent guy just trying to stick up to big bad Manfred and being blackballed. This is a guy with a long track record of being a less than ideal teammate and human.
  13. chpettit19
    I also came to point out the WBC factor. Trout, Goldy, Altuve, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Devers, Ohtani, Pederson, Betts, Alonso, Soto, Rodriguez, Gimenez, McNeil, Bogaerts, and Schwarber were all getting ready for the WBC and ahead of schedule . That's 17 guys from the list. Plus 3 guys injured or retired. Lowe is not some established star. Neither is Contreras, and he's with a new team this year so, as a catcher, probably needs more game work to work with his staff. Harris is a 2nd year player. The rest of the guys have played 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 4 games. Being extremely generous we'll call it 3 PAs per game for them all (their first games likely only got 2, but we'll call it 3). And you're talking a max of 27 PAs. At least half of which probably came against minor leaguers. That's what we're concerned about? Buxton gets that in an hour on the back fields.
  14. chpettit19
    Man, I'd hate to see what your thoughts are on the Rays, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Brewers bullpen usage. Those 11 teams have all used their relievers more since Rocco took over than Rocco has. As for the topic of developmental success stories, these are some nice success stories, but they need to start producing more high level guys. They could have many more names on a list like this if their young guys could stay healthy. They've actually been above average at turning drafted players into major leaguers, but their next step is to start kicking out some stars. Producing major league talent regularly is an absolute must, but to really contend for championships some of those players need to be stars. They haven't figured that out yet. Keep doing what they're doing, but get some Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda types to become stars. That's what's needed next.
  15. chpettit19
    I don't remember the exact details of it all, but I do believe if they take over they're going to show the games free, and without blackout restrictions for some amount of time. Which they should.
  16. chpettit19
    That's oversimplifying Bauer's experience as a baseball player over the last decade plus. He's been disliked by many teammates in his own clubhouse going back to his college days. Painting him as some crusader for good who's being oppressed by the powers he's speaking truth to is ignoring a lot. When Terry Francona says you were traded because you were a problem within the clubhouse it says something. That's not even taking into account the way he's behaved on social media in the past. Trevor Bauer smeared himself by being unable to play nice with anyone anywhere.
  17. chpettit19
    For what it's worth, Manfred said that if they miss payments the teams will terminate their contracts and MLB will produce and distribute the games themselves.
  18. chpettit19
    FYI, MLB announced they won't be suspending Clevinger. MLB’s statement: “The comprehensive investigation included interviews of more than 15 individuals, in addition to Mr. Clevinger and the complainant, as well as a review of available documents, such as thousands of electronic communication records. The Office of the Commissioner has closed this investigation and, barring the receipt of any new information or evidence, the Office of the Commissioner will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations. As part of his path forward, Mr. Clevinger has voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the joint treatment boards under the collectively bargained policies, and to comply with any of the boards’ recommendations. MLB will continue to make support services available to Mr. Clevinger, his family, and other individuals involved in the investigation.”
  19. chpettit19
    2 for 11 with a double, 2 walks, and 4 Ks.
  20. chpettit19
    10 ABs vs Sanchez is significantly more useful than 1 or 2 ABs against a "more accomplished pitcher" and 1 against some random minor leaguer in a ST game.
  21. chpettit19
    I think the biggest challenge of a tourney like this is getting high quality pitching to participate. The timing of the WBC means there's always going to be top end pitching that can't, or won't, participate. Kershaw, for example, this year had to back out because he couldn't get the needed insurance for it. I think it's also why Japan is always going to be a/the favorite. They have a real national team that their stars play for in multiple tournaments.
  22. chpettit19
    As of today I'd predict a QO for Mahle and Gray. Twins willing to pay the $20 mil for 1 year if they accept, or take their draft pick in return if they move on. Would expect them to touch base with Maeda on an extension if he comes back and performs to his career norms. Probably looking at a 1 year + option type deal they'd want with him.
  23. chpettit19
    This make people happier? From last week. He's doing things. He can get way more work in in live BP than in a game.
  24. chpettit19
    It's not Lee's age that matters, it's that he was drafted 8 months ago and has played 31 professional games, only 4 of which were above A ball. There's a very real chance he shows he has the talent to play in the majors this year, but it's not likely to be super early in the year, and he's got other prospects to jump to do it. Whether we like it or not, service time will also be a factor. Just looking at his age is missing a lot of context. He can be the prospect everyone thinks/hopes he is and still not be a likely callup within a calendar year of being drafted. They're not just pushing a healthy, and performing, Correa, Miranda, Polanco, or Kirilloff aside for Lee. They're not going to call him up to play the short side of a platoon, utility IFer role of Solano or Farmer. And they're not likely to jump him over Julien if he's performing in AAA. They're not going to jump him over Lewis once he's back (which should be less than a calendar year after Lee was drafted). So it's likely that they need a serious injury to, or seriously bad play from, multiple of Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, and Lewis to get Lee real playing time. They're not calling him up, and starting his clock, for anything less than real playing time. He won't be coming up as a backup. If enough of the Correa, Miranda, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis group are injured or not playing well that it allows for Lee to come up for real playing time it's very likely things are going very poorly for the Twins offense.
  25. chpettit19
    The emotion, attitude, flare, and excitement these teams play with is awesome to watch. Hoping it continues to bleed into MLB baseball as the years go on. The crowds are amazing and loud. It's such a different vibe than MLB. Venezuela and Japan looking awfully good so far. Especially Japan. No idea how anyone beats that team. So much talent. They have some absolute freaks on the mound. Would be nice if the Twins could snag one of them when they're posted in the next few years 🤞
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