chpettit19

I like what the Twins have done here. They have a bunch of options and aren't relying on just a starting 9 being good everyday. Gordon is going to get plenty of PAs. So will Gallo, Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff, Taylor, Farmer, and the rest of the non-Buxton and Correa players. Arraez had 603 PAs last year, Garlick had 162, Gio Urshela had 551, Jake Cave had 177, Celestino had 347, Palacios had 77, Sano 71, Contreras 61, Beckham 25, Hamilton 8, and Sanchez some DH PAs. That's basically 2100 PAs that aren't on the roster anymore. The Twins had 6113 PAs last year. I hope they're scoring a little more than last year so I'm going to up that a tiny amount to 6150 to also give us an easier number to work with. I think the following PA numbers are reasonable, but you can feel free to disagree. Correa: 620 Miranda: 600 Kepler: 500 Gallo: 500 Polanco: 500 Kirilloff: 500 Larnach: 500 Vazquez: 475 Gordon: 450 Buxton: 450 Taylor: 400 Jeffers: 300 Farmer: 300 Total: 6095 Still have 55 PAs to spread amongst them. Injuries, and/or poor performance, will obviously adjust those numbers. Those are more of the "perfect world" numbers. But Gordon's ability to play a bunch of positions will give him the opportunity to eat up some of those 55 leftover PAs and some of the injury/poor performance PAs. The rest obviously going to Lewis and the rest of the guys on the farm. I just think we're making too big of a deal of them bringing in other guys and him losing PAs. He had 443 PAs last year. I see no reason to believe he can't/won't get that again this year if he's performing.

I was wrong on Sano's contract situation this offseason. I thought he'd for sure get a major league pillow deal from some rebuilding team hoping to snag good Sano for the first half and flip him at the deadline. It's looking like he's really going to struggle to get a shot in the majors this year. I haven't seen anything about how his workout went, but I'd be curious what kind of shape he was/is in.

And that's why I said it wasn't a reason to give up on him or that he's doomed. But ignoring the numbers doesn't make any sense. My point was that if he can't maintain a solid batting average he will have no ability to get on base, and then his base running doesn't matter. You listed his .241 BA like it doesn't matter because he got on base so much. Which is totally fine. But when you're talking about him progressing it does matter. Because he won't be able to walk so much as he moves up and faces better pitching. Not sure what "getting lost in the numbers" means, but I hope you're not suggesting that a lot of guys who hit poorly (BA, slugging, whatever you want) get to the majors and are suddenly completely different guys. Guys don't hit .241 consistently in the minors and then get to the majors and hit .300. Ignore all the OPS numbers if you want. Take slugging out of it completely. I'm not saying he needs to be a slugger of any sort. But there were only 42 hitters in all of major league baseball that had 300 PAs and an OBP of .350 or better last year. If Martin's offensive skills are getting on base and being a good base runner he's going to need to get on base at a .350 clip. That is insanely hard to do if you're not hitting for a pretty solid average. Because you simply won't get walked by major league pitchers. I don't know why that's a crazy suggestion. Major league pitchers walk fewer guys than AA pitchers. So he can't simply build a career by hoping major league guys walk him that much. It's entirely fine if Martin is an OBP and base running guy. But in order for him to become that guy he's going to have to hit the ball better than he did last year. He absolutely could do that. I'd actually bet that he does do that. But suggesting minor league numbers don't mean anything is pretty aggressive. Last year was incredibly disappointing for him. I think he'd tell you that. I don't know why it's bad to point out that he had a disappointing season.

I'm aware of that. But you said "Benintendi should be the absolute floor." If you think Benintendi is the "absolute floor" then you're talking about Martin getting MVP votes since you're expecting/hoping/whatever him to be much better than Benintendi. I told you what Benintendi did on offense. He was 6th amongst qualified LFers, and 19th amongst qualified OFers WITH THE BAT in 2022. He was 23rd amongst all major league outfielders with at least 300 PAs (not even close to qualifying for the batting title) WITH THE BAT in 2022. If you don't think being one of the 25 best outfield bats in baseball is good I don't know what to tell you.

I think you're underselling Benintendi by quite a bit. He was 6th amongst LFers in wRC+ last year. 19th amongst qualified OFers. He was 27th in wRC+ amongst all outfielders with at least 300 PAs last year. 21st amongst that group in fWAR. He was an all star last year, and has won a gold glove. 2018 Benintendi was 7th in fWAR, and 23rd in wRC+ amongst OFers with at least 300 PAs. If you're thinking that's Martin's floor you're expecting Martin to be an MVP candidate.

I think it's disappointing because those OBP numbers are likely impossible to maintain as he moves up the ladder if he can't hit higher than .241 and/or slug more than .317. Major league pitchers won't walk him at the kind of rates he'd need to be walked to be a useful player if he's only hitting .241 with no power. That's the disappointing part. What it means for his projections if he can't hit better than .241. He won't get on base at those clips against major league pitchers if he can't impact the ball significantly better than he did during most of the season. That's why the AFL stint was so encouraging. There were 32 qualified major leaguers with an OBP of .350 or higher last year. The lowest batting average amongst them was .242 by Juan Soto. But he slugged .452, is a feared MLB star, and is known for having one of the best eyes in the history of baseball (his 20.3% walk rate last year is astronomical. For reference, Martin was at 11.8% in AA). The next lowest BA was .252 for Christian Yelich. The average OPS for that group was .846. Average BA for that group was .289. So I think it's pretty reasonable to call him hitting .241 and OPSing .683 in AA disappointing. Edited to add: None of that means he's doomed or we should give up on him. Simply that he did have a disappointing season.

I think Andrew Benintendi is a really good comp for Martin. I think 2022 Andrew Benintendi (with more steals) is his best case scenario if he doesn't develop more power. Most definitely a useful player, but not the sort of star you're hoping for out of the #5 pick. But Benintendi was the 7th pick in his draft, and an even higher ranked global prospect than Martin. 2018 Benintendi, and the trajectory people thought he was on, is closer to the top end of where Martin could be. But if he ends up being a slightly faster Benintendi I think we should, and would, be very happy. 2018 Benintendi (23 years old): 148 games played, 16 HRS, .290/.366/.465/.830, 123 OPS+ and 4.8 bWAR, 123 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR 2022 Benintendi (27 years old): 126 games played, 5 HRS, .304/.373/.399/.772, 120 OPS+ and 3.2 bWAR, 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR If Martin turns into a 3-5 WAR/year player I'll be very happy to have him on the squad.

I was a huge fan of Martin coming out of Vandy, and him being part of the Berrios trade made that move sting a little less. I think Keith Law was onto something when he was worried about Martin's injury with Toronto changing his approach too dramatically to the "slap it the other way" approach. The swings he was letting off in the AFL looked far better than the swings he'd been showing when he came over from Toronto, and to start last year. There was a very clear change in his stance, and he looked to be attacking the ball with more authority in September and the AFL. I don't know if that was him finally feeling healthy again, or him being frustrated with the way his season had gone and finally starting to just let it rip. It was great to see him make some changes when he came back at the end of the season, and gives me real hope for him going into 2023. Kirilloff and Martin are the 2 guys who's swings I'll be watching the closest come this weekend when the games start.

They're likely a little of both. Grounders are marked where they're fielded/first touched. Line drives and popups are marked where they landed. So a bunch of those singles are likely groundballs showing where they were fielded. At least that's what the tracking systems I'm aware of do. Perhaps baseball savant is different, though.

That was my initial understanding as well, but MLB Network had a "new rules" special last week and they explained that there's no "sending a guy in motion" before the pitch. So they will be more or less stationary. I still don't think it has as big of an impact as some seem to think it will. Even the "highlights" they showed on that show were softly hit balls that are outs with an 2B with reasonable range. It'll help some, but you still have to hit the ball hard to really make it matter.

FYI, they're not allowed to be moving while the pitch is delivered. They'll line them up a step to the left or right of 2nd, but they're not allowed to jump to the other side like you're suggesting.

As others have mentioned, Kepler's problems were far less about the shift than weak contact. If he doesn't start hitting the ball harder more consistently the shift won't matter that much. The shift allowed teams to take away the missiles that would've found their way through, not the 20 hoppers or lazy fly balls. Kepler hits a lot of 20 hoppers and lazy fly balls. That's been his problem. The "unlucky" narrative about him has been pretty well debunked by his quality of contact stats. He simply hits too many lazy flyballs. Maybe the shift ban does allow him to loosen up and just swing to hit the ball hard now. But that's the best bet on truly improving his numbers.

The Padres and Brewers used Rogers on back to back days 17 times last year. It became pretty apparent in his time with the Twins that he was bad on back to back days. The same kind of things popped up (his OPS against was .879 in appearances with 0 days rest) so people want to blame that on the managers using him wrong. My first thought about that is that you're not really a closer, let alone an elite one, if you can't be used on back to back days. Especially since the playoffs have a number of back to back games and you'd want your elite closer to be used in some of those I'd think. The other thing is that his OPS against wasn't good when he had 2, 3, or 4 days of rest last year either. It was very good with 1 day of rest. Taylor Rogers simply wasn't very good last year, and has never been an elite closer, or, in my opinion, a good closer, because if you can't use your closer in back to back games he's just reliever.

Mitch Haniger signed a $43.5 million deal. Between his signing bonus (6 million) and 2023 salary (5 million) he will make 11 million this year. Makes 17 million next year. Then has an opt out or can accept 15.5 million in 2025. I'm not sure I'd call that "little or nothing." Especially when he's topped 100 games played in only 2 of his MLB seasons.

Interesting find there. I'll start by saying any study with only 42 data points means next to nothing for me. 32% of those players were outfielders, and 32% were infielders. Now we're down to 26 players in this comparative sample. I'm going to need more than 26 data points to call anything useful. There's no real data in 13 outfielders hurt their knee more in the field than on the bases than 13 infielders did. Especially when those 26 players range from youth athletes (data means literally nothing to MLB athletes), to high school (still useless), to college (somewhat useful), and then the pros (useful). Were those 13 outfielders all 6th graders or high school kids? I appreciate the effort here, but that study means nothing in this context. Adalberto Mondesi tore his ACL on either a pick off play trying to get back to 1st, or a fake steal he did on the next pitch. Daniel Hudson tore his ACL trying to get off the mound to field a dribbler. Wilson Ramos tore his fielding a weak grounder in front of the plate. Kyle Schwarber tore his in a collision with another player. Marcus Stroman tore his doing fielding drills in spring training. Mariano River tore his just shagging fly balls. Dexter Fowler tore his running the bases. Adam Eaton tore his in a collision running to first. Acuna tore his chasing a fly ball. Royce tore his making a play against the wall. Mauricio Dubon tore his in a rundown after getting picked off. Antonio Senzatela tore his trying to cover first on a grounder to the 1B. There's a bunch of the recent MLB torn ACLs. I'm not seeing anything screaming "don't play guys in the OF!" there. Just a bunch of randomness. Which is what this is. A really big bummer of a random event. Edit: Sorry, I wasn't paying attention to what thread we were discussing this in. I appreciate the back and forth, and the effort to finding data, but let's get this back to Lee. I think we can both agree that Lee taking an infield spot is a very good idea!

I think that's actually pretty encouraging. I assume Lee doesn't have a bone in his wrist that is too long, and, when healthy, Kirilloff has looked like a future star. Let's hope Lee can stay healthy, and Kirilloff returns healthy, and these 2 can be our version of Arenado and Goldschmidt in St Louis!

We can't move Correa to 3rd because he makes too much to play there? Did I infer incorrectly? ************************************** Yes, you infer correctly. His value is as a shortstop. His stats as a shortstop are awesome!! His stats don't translate nearly as well as a 3rd baseman(middle of the pack?) FYI, Correa would've been 11th in HRs, 5th in BA, 3rd in OBP, 7th in SLG, and tied for 5th in wRC+ amongst qualified 3Bs last year. He was tied with Devers for wRC+. Devers just got 10 years, 313.5 million. Correa would certainly be a better fielder. Machado got 10, 300 that he's going to opt out of cuz he's going to get even more. Arenado got 8/260. Correa would be a top 5 3B, and they all get the same kind of money as he did.

And we don't need any data from some authorized research to tell us that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under conditions that have him running full blast, stopping and planting on that leg in a lateral movement, then twisting and throwing across his body. Since, you know, the vast majority of ACL tears we see in professional sports are non-contact injuries that take place while trying to plant after going full speed and making a lateral move. Like a SS does far more than an OFer jumps and lands awkwardly at the wall. Guess Lewis should just retire.

That's why I'd give him a minor league deal. I don't care if he's in St Paul struggling.

My hope is that Lee is in St Paul when Lewis returns from injury and we get to see a top of the order for the Saints that includes Julien, Martin, Lewis, and Lee in June. I hope they're all in AAA (in June) because I hope the guys currently penciled in for the Twins are all healthy and performing. Then Lewis takes RF from Kepler, and the other 3 are getting their feet wet as fill ins for 10 day IL stints here and there from the major league roster. To me, that's best case scenario. That'd, likely, mean the Twins are doing well, and staying mostly healthy, while these guys are getting an idea of what the big leagues are like and what adjustments they'll have to make. Allows the Twins to reshape their roster in the following offseason based on what these guys are showing them. If they all look ready to claim roster spots for 2024, that team is going to have a very cheap core and maybe all our dreams come true and the Twins splurge on a big time pitcher with the money saved from Gallo, Kepler, and at least 2 of the FA pitchers leaving. I wouldn't know what to do with myself if things actually played out like this. As for Lee himself, he sure looks like one of the higher floor prospects we've had in quite a while. It's hard to see him completely tanking. I'm not sold the power is ever much more than 15-20 HRs a year, but him hitting .280+ with a .375+ OBP and 15-20 HRs while playing a really solid, if not well above average, 3B would be incredible. And I think that's a pretty realistic dream as far as dreaming on prospects goes.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

It's "controversial" because there's no reason to suggest it was unwise. A torn ACL isn't like alcoholism or cancer. You're not fighting it for the rest of your life or in remission from it. You're healed. His knee was fine. Suggesting he shouldn't be allowed to play certain positions in his sport because he'd once injured his knee and healed is like suggesting every NFL and NBA player who tears their ACL should just retire because they're bound to tear it again if they keep running, jumping, and cutting on it. His knee was healed. It was the same as any other knee on the team. The answer to all their misfortunes and mistakes shouldn't just be "darn the luck," but it also shouldn't just be "gosh, they really should've known that was going to happen." Sometimes things just happen. The reason he even got called up in the first place is because Correa got hit by a pitch. Should the answer to that misfortune be "ugh, those idiot Twins let their SS play the game they pay him to play?" Or was it simply "darn the luck?" The idea that his knee was in more danger in the OF than the IF is based on no actual logic or proof. Literally none. You don't think him running full speed in either direction at SS to get to a grounder. planting on his right knee (the one he keeps injuring) to stop on a dime and/or twist to throw to first puts strain on his ACL? You think that's safer than running into a wall once a year? That's why it's controversial. Because you're trying to connect things that don't connect.

Yeah, this isn't how things work. It wasn't his "first few innings" there. He played 8 innings in CF in 2019 at AA. Didn't tear any ACLs then. He played 46 innings in CF in 2019 in the AFL. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 10 innings in CF in 2022 in St Paul. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 18 innings in LF in 2022 in St Paul. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 3 innings in CF in 2022 in Minneapolis and tore his ACL. Is your stance that it's just Target Field's CF that is dangerous? There isn't any evidence, solid or not, on what was right-wrong for Lewis. All we have is evidence that he got hurt. It doesn't have to be right or wrong. It can be, and is, simply sad. Otherwise, you better call the Mariners and let them know they have to move Julio Rodriguez out of CF immediately. I mean they just gave him a deal that could pay him nearly half a billion dollars. And they apparently are unaware that playing incredible athletes in CF is wrong because Royce Lewis got hurt doing it once. Matter of fact, better call the Angels, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Orioles, White Sox, and even the Yankees who used Aaron Judge out there. They all have great athletes who's ACLs are in incredible danger because they play CF. Then call the Twins a second time to tell them to move Buxton out of CF, too. Probably best we just play Gallo and Kepler there since we don't care if they get hurt.

I question whether or not he would have a real shot at making the team. If the Twins didn't feel their pen was set I'd think they'd be out there being more aggressive at bringing players in, don't you? Why would the Twins hand out 40-man spots to veterans with no options left who aren't likely to make the opening day roster? I don't know how much a reliever can really do in spring to impress enough, and unseat someone expected to make the roster already. Maybe their pen work really can be a battle for a roster spot, but, if not, having to DFA them, to me, is a worse spot (for the team) than having them on a minor league deal and being able to know you have them in AAA if needed. And I'd think a player would be happier taking a well paid minor league deal (nothing, that I know of, says they can't pay him the same amount without giving him a 40-man spot) with an opt out so they don't have to worry about playing the waiver game. But I could be wrong about that. I'd rather take a minor league deal with an opt out so I don't have to play the waiver game and risk going somewhere I don't want to go through the claims process. But maybe he doesn't care where he goes and just wants to keep pitching in the bigs. I don't know. It's why I question what is actually preferable for a player. Likely depends on the player. But I'm not in the "you have 40-man spots so just use them" boat. I think there's far more thought that should go into it than that.

Honestly? Pagan and Megill. I think Hand is toast. Hand wouldn't be in my top 25 Twins pitchers as of today. But what you and I think of their pen doesn't really matter. The Twins have been pretty clear that they think they have a good pen, and it's pretty well set barring injury. We may not like Pagan or Megill, but the Twins seem to. So my question really is about him not having a real chance to make this team outside of an injury. Many MLB teams are carrying only 1 lefty. The Twins have 2 who are better, and 1 (Coulombe) who is a likely washed up veteran like Hand. How much can a reliever do in a handful of spring innings to truly overtake guys the FO already thinks are good enough to be on the opening day roster? If the Twins didn't think they were set in the pen, I'd hope they were shooting for someone higher than Hand if they're forcing a veteran onto the opening day roster. It doesn't sound to me like the Twins are looking at him, or any currently available relievers, as more than depth, not opening day options. And if that's the case I don't see the point in signing any vet to a major league deal. And I can't imagine the players see a reason to sign a major league deal knowing their only real shot at making the roster is someone getting hurt, and that it's far more likely they're just DFA'd in a month.