chpettit19

But how many teams do have a "true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within 2-3 years?" And, really, you need 3 or 4 of those guys because the vast majority of them don't actually become those types of arms. Getting one of those guys should definitely be the goal, but you're talking about a very limited number of guys. Most top 100 pitching prospects aren't even the guy you're describing. Fangraphs just released their top prospect list. They have 2 pitchers with 60 FV grades, and 9 with 55 FV grades. 1 of those guys is Kodai Senga who's 30 years old. So actual "true SP1/high-end SP2" prospects in the entire minor league baseball world is 10 guys. And at least half of those guys won't turn into that type of pitcher. So there's probably 5 in all of minor league baseball. The Twins should certainly be working to develop those guys. But we need to have realistic expectations as well. Maybe Prielipp is that guy by the end of this year. Maybe they snag another one with pick 5. Maybe Raya becomes one. I definitely get the frustrated fan view. I want another Johan. I want a guy who I will find a way to be in front of a TV every 5th day to watch pitch. And it absolutely should be the goal. And it is. The Twins are trying to develop that guy. It's just really, really, really hard. The organizational shift has happened. They've adjusted the type of guys they seek. They've changed how they develop. They're adding velocity to guys. They're seeking strikeouts over soft contact. It's just really hard to hit on front end pitching. It's why it's so valuable.

I didn't remember all those pitchers, I had to pull up the 40-man to get them all. I think they've shown a solid ability to develop MLB talent. Both hitters and pitchers. What's going to make the difference is stars. Can they get a position player to stay healthy and become a star? Can they develop a frontline starter or 2? That'll be the difference between perennial division contender and perennial WS contender. MLB Network just finished their "Top 100" series. And the last half dozen or so WS Champs have all had at least 5 Top 100 players. The Twins have 2 now. They need to find 3+ more. There's hope for that, but it's their big test. Develop a couple cheap stars and pay for 1 more when they let a number of their upcoming FAs walk.

Varland over Jordy Blaze at this point.

There's more context to it than simply saying "they traded for almost everyone and that isn't sustainable." Duran, Ryan, Thielbar, and Alcala all came over as prospects with all of their team control left. That's different than the guys who came over as major leaguers. But even those guys came over with multiple years of control left. They drafted Ober, Jax, Moran, Balazovich, Canterino, Headrick, Sands, Varland, and Winder. They acquired SWR and Henriquez with all their team control. That's 15 of the 23 arms on the 40-man who they either drafted or acquired as prospects. I'd argue that's not only sustainable, but pretty typical of every major league organization. Front end pitching is hard to acquire in any fashion. But they definitely need Prielipp, Raya, pick #5 this year, someone to come up and be a controllable front line pitcher. But as far as acquiring major league pitchers goes, what they're doing is pretty sustainable.

I've got the Mariners and Padres on right now! Baseball is back! Having 3 screens and my desk in the corner of the office makes it nice to be able to watch some daytime baseball while I "work."

I voted for the "Young up and coming faces," but it's really Martin and Kirilloff that I'm looking at. How does Kirilloff's swing look in terms of how he appears to feel really letting his swing rip? How does Martin look in terms of impacting the ball well and hitting line drives to all parts of the park? I never really worry about, or look at, spring production. I don't care if you hit .000 or 1.000, it doesn't really tell me much. Players are working on things, and it's a super small sample size against varied competition with some goals outside of simply beating the other team. What I'm interested in are how guys look, and the 2 I mentioned are the ones I'm watching most closely. Polanco being a close 3rd.

I didn't love the pick because of his lack of any tools outside his hit and power, but his hit and power had the chance to be elite. I can see the thought process in grabbing him at the end of the first and hoping he turns into a Nelson Cruz type. To this point it's really hard to see him ever making the majors. He absolutely destroyed college baseball. He had some swing and miss to his game then, but I don't think any of us would've predicted the insane K rates we saw from him in the low minors. It wasn't a great pick, but I think we're being a literal harsh due to some 20/20 hindsight. This is the risk you take when you go after a bat only player. You have the upside of Nelson Cruz, but the downside of them never succeeding in the high minors even. I still hope something clicks for him, but it's not looking likely at this point.

It's "Top Prospect" season, and the hope train has picked up a lot of steam around these parts. Lewis and Lee (as far as infielders go) are the only 2 with high probability of being as good as Polanco. The rest have outside chances because you just never know, but none of them are projected to be the overall player a healthy Polanco is. And he's not 35, he's 29. I hope he isn't breaking down already, but that would certainly change the narrative. I think many people are way too eager to move on from solid vets, or well above average ones like Polanco, for unproven rookies/prospects/oft-injured "youngsters" these days because it's the climax of the "season of hope" that is the offseason and prospect lists are coming out right and left.

This looks like the perfect situation for the Twins. They have a wave of prospects pushing for their chances, but have a major league roster full of proven MLB talent (not a bunch of stars, but a bunch of guys who've been really solid). I know we're all excited about the prospects, but the hard truth is that a number of them will fail. Arraez had no spot going into 2019, but by the end of the year he'd taken Schoop's job, and Schoop was gone the next year. Miranda had no spot going into 2022 (and none of these prospects have had a season like Miranda had in 2021), but by the end of the year he'd taken Urshela's job, and Urshela is gone now. This is how it's supposed to work. Preferably the Miranda/Urshela situation so you can trade the vet for a low level prospect to add to the next wave. We all want Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, et al to produce. We want them to take the jobs of vets who aren't performing up to the needed level of production. And some will. If Polanco has his typical odd year production I'd much rather have him than bank on any of the prospects early. But if we've actually seen the start of the decline then it's great to have some guys with real shots to take his place. If Polanco has his typical odd year production, and prospects start to show their worth in their various opportunities, then Polanco is a great trade chip next offseason (or at the deadline if a couple prospects have really taken jobs by then) for an upgrade somewhere on the roster. I was leaning towards the FO being replaced, but I think this has been their best work yet, and, for the first time, they look like they may actually have set this team up for continued success.

I watched him in the AFL some, and he didn't look anywhere near MLB average at 2B. That doesn't mean he can't get there, but he's got a long ways to go. His defense is a real question mark.

FYI, Julien only played 2B (and DH) last year.

Along the lines of what @raindog said, I actually think it's more likely that Kirilloff is the one who doesn't make the trip to KC for opening day. Not sure exactly what that'd do to the lineup, but I think they're going to take things slow with Kirilloff and that wrist, and he's the one I'd guess gets sent to Toledo at the end of March instead of KC. As of today, that is. A lot can change over the next 5 weeks.

His approach was likely changed with Toronto. Or they at least suggested him looking to pull more. Even in the article he speaks to people wanting to get to more power as soon as he got to pro ball. They didn't draft him #5 overall hoping he'd be a slap hitter with speed. They drafted him there because they thought they could get more power out of him. That's why I don't get why people think the Twins did something crazy, or that they shouldn't attempt to tweak players swings after they're drafted. Literally every team does it. The most noticeable change Martin has made since his days at Vandy came after his injury last year. He changed his stance dramatically when he came back in August. That's another reason I don't understand people complaining about tweaking his swing. The best he's done since coming to the Twins was after he made the biggest noticeable change of his college and pro career. Making tweaks is what every hitter does. Even Trout comes back after the offseason and says things like "I had a hole in my swing at the top of the zone so I worked this winter to close that hole." That's the best hitter on the planet saying he tweaked his swing. That's what baseball is about. Pitchers find your holes and either you close them, or you fail.

ERod is a reasonable enough choice. Ideally he debuts in the bigs in 2024, but he may not get enough ABs to graduate, due to there being a number of other high end OFers we're hoping claim starting jobs with the Twins this year and moving forward, so could still be rookie eligible going into 2025. If he's still eligible, hopefully he's #1 here. I think #2 is likely to be the #5 pick this year. Raya and Prielipp seem like good choices to be on the cusp of MLB debuts going into 2025 so hopefully they're at the top here, too. I'd like to see Salas debut in 2024 like ERod. He's already spent time in A+ and the expectation should be that he reaches AA this year. Once you're in AA, as a top prospect, you're on the doorstep and he should have a shot at debuting in 2024 if he's the top prospect we hope he is. Mercedes seems like a nice option for the top 5 as well. The guy who's hat I'll throw in as a hopeful option is Noah Miller. He's got the glove, and I'm hoping to see him continue to increase his strength and be able to handle the bat well the next 2 years. It'd be great to have him touching the top 5 system prospect range and be in AA or AAA going into 2025.

Did Dozier's power come naturally or did he make a tweak to his swing? "Natural" power development mostly comes from guys simply getting stronger. Doubles that 1 hopped the wall start going over the wall (Manny Machado for example). Guys like Arraez and Martin, who hit line drives without much launch angle, don't develop more power "naturally." It'd require a swing tweak to get that result. You can't hit a HR on a ball that barely clears the infielder's head. And he didn't "lose a year of development." If he/they'd done what you, and many other fans are asking, and made no attempts to add any skills he wouldn't have been developing. All "leaving him alone" would've done was ensure that he'd never add any skills, or develop. Some hitters won't ever be that type of hitter, you're right. That doesn't mean you don't try. There are 0 major league hitters who never made an attempt to get more out of themselves. 0. Not 1 ever. They all work to improve and gain skills. This idea of just leaving a guy alone is really confusing to me. Because no player has ever just been left alone. This is what minor league baseball is.

I think this is pretty typical stuff. Draft a guy with great bat to ball skills and see if you can get him to elevate the ball more. A Martin with high BA/high OBP/high SLG is better than a Martin with high BA/high OBP/low SLG. They weren't trying to turn him into a low BA/high SLG guy, they were trying to turn him into a high BA/high (or at least medium) SLG guy. They wanted to add power, not swap in power. That's what the minors are for. Clearly didn't work with Martin (to this point), but there's no reason not to try. People just have to remember it was adding power, not swapping in power. Adding abilities is what the minors are for.

Him being able to go to driveline and do the work on his slider makes me confident he's healthy. If he wasn't right he wouldn't have gone out and worked on his pitches this offseason. He sounds like he's good to go to me.

I voted for Mahle. Was great to hear he was at Driveline working on his slider (like Ryan), and I think getting out of Cincinnati is going to be great for him. But I'm also optimistic about the group as a whole, and am excited to see how they feed off each other game after game with the standard for performance being raised.

I think Wes knowing what this particular FO looks for in pitchers means he can give them more specific information than the average team. Every team will ask the same character, work ethic, coachability, etc. questions (and have their scouts watching for clues on those questions as well), but Wes knows the specifics of what the Twins look for in pitchers so Wes can more easily thumbs up or thumbs down whether or not he really fits their philosophies. It's likely not a huge thing, but I think the Wes connection at least helps ensure they're 100% speaking the same language and he's answering the questions more specifically I'd think.

Just looks like extra injury insurance to me. Most likely for Kirilloff. And having Polanco sit against lefties wouldn't be terrible either. An IF of Farmer, Correa, Solano, and Miranda would be a lefty killer. I'm all for more depth. I have as high a hopes as anyone for the young guys, but relying on them from the jump is a risky proposition. Especially when very few of them have proven they can stay healthy. To me, this is Kirilloff depth. Gallo is Larnach depth. Taylor is Celestino depth. Do people not remember the lineups the Twins were throwing out there at different points last year? I mean Celestino, Garlick, Palacios, Cave, Beckham and Contreras were starting games last year. More depth and competition is good. There's plenty of plate appearances to go around, and the young guys will get their shots. Miranda has shown he can stay healthy, and is being handed a job. I think if we'd seen Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff stay healthy they'd have been handed jobs as well. I'm excited to see what Martin, Lee, Julien, and Wallner can do, too, but handing those guys opening day jobs isn't what a competing Twins team should do. They will all get chances to prove their worth as injury/performance based fill ins. I think the hope train has taken over too much. The future looks bright, but some of these prospects will fail. Bringing in vets to ease that transition and not put it all on young guys hitting the ground running is smart, in my opinion. Especially a move like this that I'm guessing is for very minimal money and he's easily moved on from if/when one of the young guys overtakes him. I wasn't expecting this move, and don't think it was of utmost need, but I like it just fine. Nobody can say the FO didn't learn their lesson about depth, though.

Just looks like a depth move to me. A little extra spring training insurance for any injuries. Extra Kirilloff insurance mostly. Would be shocked to see him make the opening day roster if Kirilloff is good to go opening day, and there aren't any spring injuries to IFers.

If the Twins could get him to sign that deal they should do it immediately. If Royce is offered that deal he should turn it down immediately.

I'm typically a bat at the top of the draft guy because they're easier to predict and turn out more often than pitchers, but Skenes may be my pick if I had pick 1:1 right now. He's got the stuff, and athleticism, to be an absolute stud on the mound. One of the biggest hurdles pitchers face as they move up the levels of pro ball is being able to repeat their delivery to truly master all their pitches and increase their control. A guy who throws 99 with that slide piece, but is also athletic enough to be a position player (I don't love the idea of a pitcher catching, though. Way too much stress on their knees) should be ultra coachable and give him the best chance to advance quickly and front a rotation in the bigs. The Wes connection there is nice as well. If Skenes is available at 5 and they don't take him (assuming he dominates the rest of the year and stays healthy) I'll assume they got some inside info from Wes and they didn't think he'd be a good fit. But a good word from Wes could also be enough for them to take an arm at #5 instead of a bat. Right now he's the guy I'm most hoping they get at #5.

I think the Yankees are in fan's heads more than player's heads. I think they just typically have a much better team than the Twins so they tend to beat the Twins a lot. And if I'm wrong about the player's heads then I hope Correa gets their heads straightened up. For the rest of their careers I'll take Miranda, but for 1 season I'd bet on the guy whos done it way more. Miranda actually faded down the stretch. It's why he changed his diet and workout routine to get his new "sexy" body. I will grant that Stanton's dip in production last year could've been the start of his decline, but I think he's got at least 1 more 130+ OPS+ in him. And I generally question rookie year performances. The majors is all about adapting, and the league is going to adapt to Miranda. It's why I'm not sold on the Guardians being all that great again offensively. A bunch of no name rookies hit the ground running last year, but it's much harder to maintain your production once the league gets an idea on how to get you out. I believe in Miranda overall, but when just discussing him vs Stanton I'd bet on Stanton for this 1 season. The Yankees are hoping for just as much youth production, and veteran bounce back, this year as the Twins. Lemahieu and Donaldson with a sprinkling of Hicks for the Yankees. Polanco and Gallo with a sprinkling of Kepler for the Twins. Peraza, Volpe, and Cabrera for the Yanks. Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff for the Twins. I think the Twins lineup matches up well on paper with the Yankees. I think the Astros make them both look like little league teams on paper. (That's some exaggeration, but the Astros are absolutely loaded)

I think the Astros set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League this year. Unless we're expecting another historic year from Judge. And a player for player comparison with them would be a really bad look for the Twins right now. I agree with @TwinsDr2021 that Stanton is a better hitter right now than Miranda. Contract and health concerns keep it close, but if you're picking 1 of them in a vacuum for the 2023 season I think Stanton is a pretty easy choice. I'd actually take Kirilloff over Donaldson for 2023, though. That's me being a believer that his wrist is healthy, and will stay healthy. But I think a healthy Kirilloff is significantly better than Donaldson at this point of their careers. I'd mostly agree with the rest of the comparisons, though. I just don't think the Yankees offense is that great without an historic year from Judge. Lots of holes in that lineup.