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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    From what I've seen out of him it looks to me like he loses steam pretty quick. His 1st time through an order vs 2nd is also not pretty. It's part of why I think a move to the pen could answer a couple problems at once. 1st time through the order he's given up a .203/.259/.405/.665 slash line. 2nd time through his line is .283/.377/.500/.877. Now we're talking small sample sizes with 81 PAs first time through and 69 2nd time through (has 4 3rd time through PAs over 2 games and he's walked 2 and given up a double in those 4 PAs). He's also been much better with more rest. He's made 4 starts on regular 4 days rest and they've been bad. 2 starts on 5 days rest have been not great. 3 starts on 6+ days have been by far his best. Interesting thing with his pitch count performance as he's been bad pitches 1-25, really good pitches 26-50, and brutal pitches 51+. Looking at all these kinds of things together and he feels like a reliever to me right now. Maybe he can be a 2 inning guy. Give him a clean inning and let him rip once through a lineup. Maybe he can turn into a reliable pen weapon for the second half of the year. The question is how willing he would be to make that switch and if they have enough healthy arms to allow for it. But his numbers certainly don't look like pitches 80-100 would be pretty.
  2. chpettit19
    I wonder if they'll have a talk with him about a role in the pen. Could he gain a tick of velo on the fastball in an inning or 2 instead of 4? Could he use his slider 65% of the time for an inning or 2 and get outs? I'm not worried about him being able to handle the pressure of late inning work so it'd come down to being able to control his pitches for an inning or 2 and use his slider a ton. I think it'd be worth a conversation as arms come back healthy.
  3. chpettit19
    Love seeing Noah Miller on these kinds of lists. I think he's the SS of the future for the Twins as he'll push Lewis off since he'll be (already is?) a better defender there. Maybe Lewis slides over to 2B when Polanco's deal is up and Miller takes over SS? Whatever the situation is I think Miller pushes Lewis somewhere else in a few years. Spencer Steer seems to just be doing whatever he has to do to get to Minneapolis. And by the looks of it he's going to make it there relatively soon. He has some obstacles in his way to get onto the 40-man and finding a spot to play with the big boys, but with the way the injuries are going these days he may be needed next week. Or he may be a trade piece come July. Will be interesting to continue to follow his journey this year.
  4. chpettit19
    He's not an everyday starter so @ashbury suggested taking out the other team's non-everyday starter to compare things. That's how you'd compare things. A comparison of the Twins' less than best lineup vs the other team's best lineups isn't a great measure of anything at all. For your own peace of mind I'll let you know the Twins have 565 total PAs against left handed pitchers this year. Kyle Garlick has 32 of them. That's 5.66% of their ABs. He's got 3 HRs in those 32 ABs so he's certainly helped. I'm not going to take the time to run the numbers without his 32 PAs, but I'm quite certain his whopping 5.66% of PAs isn't going to significantly change the overall stats. Oh, and as for Rocco and the overall results of his career to this point, the Twins are top 10 in baseball in both pitching (8th) and hitting (4th) fWAR since he took over. 2019 must've been crazy good to still be carrying them to top 10 rankings in both pitching and hitting 3 years later. He has a 240-195 W-L record. That's good for a 55.2% winning percentage. That's good for a 89/90 win season on average. 2019 really propping that up, too. He has seasons of 62.3% and 60% winning percentages and is at 58.8% this year. So if you're taking the entirety of his time here into consideration you must be looking at different results than me. And I don't even like Rocco that much. Think he's just another guy as a manager. But the stats show his results have been pretty darn impressive. Even with 2021 being a complete disaster.
  5. chpettit19
    What is our definition of imminent here? From what I've been reading Alcala should be pretty close to ready to go when his 60-day sentence runs out in 10 days or so. That's not today or tomorrow, but if he's back in 2 weeks I think that's a huge boost to the pen. I spent much of the weekend enjoying adult beverages so it's quite possible I've missed some reports since Saturday, but isn't his return pretty imminent? I think a trade or 2 will definitely be needed, but I'm not expecting those anytime soon. Teams simply don't trade good trade pieces before July. The selling teams need bidding wars for their veteran pieces and you can't drive the cost up in early June like you can at the end of July. The FO may want to make moves now, but they very likely don't have the option, unless they're willing to trade much better prospects than they should for relievers. So the question to me is more about how quickly they turn to starting pitching prospects as major league relievers, or turn to a piggy back situation to save bullpen arms an extra day. Canterino being the most likely "starter debuts as reliever" candidate to me while Bundy and Archer seem to be perfectly suited to piggy back each other for all 9 innings of a game.
  6. chpettit19
    I used Merrifield's season stats and you told me he wasn't a .220 hitter even though he was hitting .220. You said he's better than that because he had a good month of May. Then you say I can't use Duffey's month of May to show he's been good of late and say I'm cherry picking. You see why that's a little confusing to me? Merrifield's month of May is proof he's not a .220 hitter, but Duffey's month of May is cherry picking and shouldn't be used. Interesting logic there. I agree he has subpar stuff as his breaking ball has declined over the years. Not sure why relying on breaking balls is a problem, though, considering many pitchers do it. In non 3-0 hitters counts pitchers league wide throw fastballs just 55% of the time. Last year Houston, Seattle, and Minnesota all used fastballs less than 50% of the time. Reliance on breaking balls and off speed pitches is pretty standard across the league at this point. I'm not a huge Duffey fan. I've said it time and time again in this thread. But he's blown 3 leads in 19 appearances this year. That's not "about once every third outing," it's 15.7% which is way less than 33%. They need better arms to push him down the line and get him out of 8th inning appearances and into 5th and 6th inning appearances. But he hasn't been the disaster you've suggest he's been. As demonstrated by statistics.
  7. chpettit19
    One big old "If," though. I hope they find a way to get some more shutdown arms in the pen and don't act like they have enough right now (even though they've been quite solid overall).
  8. chpettit19
    Oh, 100%. My original comment in this thread stated they need help, but I don't know where that comes from in May/early June. Not a lot of teams willing to do reasonable trades at this time of year because they want a bidding war to drive up prospect prices at the deadline. Alacala back in a couple weeks (hopefully ?) and maybe Canterino in June if he's still dealing and they're willing to let him be a multi-inning guy in the bigs. But I don't know where they find more help right now even though I 100% agree they need it.
  9. chpettit19
    Alcala has been throwing pens and is doing a live BP session today. Expected back in middle of June, but no definitive timeline at this point.
  10. chpettit19
    See, when you kept it to just the Merrifield stats you were onto something. Then you went and did what I did and used season long stats instead of the recent stats to try to prove a bullpen arm is terrible. 11 May appearances for Duffey. 5 holds. 1 save. 1 win when he held the score in the 8th in the big comeback against KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th 2 days before the meltdown. Hadn't blown a lead since April 19th actually. Although, he did have a bad outing in KC last week so maybe the argument is he shouldn't pitch with a lead against KC. But, no, he hasn't been prone to coughing up leads. And I've said multiple times that I'd like him to be pushed down the line. Alcala is hopefully back in a couple weeks and that's 1 arm that will move him down. My original post in this thread was that they needed help in the pen. The point is that taking 1 blown lead and making it sound like he's blowing them all the time while you ignore the 7 wins, holds, or saves he'd had in the month prior to that is confirmation bias at it's finest. I don't want Duffey throwing high leverage situations. I've said that. But he's been able to be successful far more often than not in those situations this year, even if they're not always comfortable outings and I get nervous when I see he's coming in. Rocco should be ready to have someone else up and throwing quick when Duffey comes in because he's either 1-2-3 or it's all a mess. And I've agreed he should've had someone ready Thursday night. But Duffey has been solid more than he hasn't for the last month. 11 appearances 7 of them didn't allow a baserunner at all and an 8th where he faced just 3 hitters in his first inning of work before having to face 5 in his second inning. So 8 out of 11 appearances that he faced 3 hitters in his first inning of work. He's not great and I want him moved down the pecking order, but let's not act like he's out there giving up runs every time out either.
  11. chpettit19
    Agreed, and I've said throughout this thread that I want to see him pushed down the leverage line. But his May appearances have been in high leverage situations and he'd been pretty solid in them until the other night. Before Thursday's meltdown he'd had 10 other appearances in May and came out of it with 5 holds, 1 save, and the W in the big comeback in KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th on Tuesday. I want him pushed down the line because he's not the same guy he was a couple years ago, but it's not absurd to think he can hold a 2-0 lead in the 8th since he's been doing similar things for a month. That's my thing. People don't like Duffey (and I don't want him as an 8th inning guy either) so when he does blow a lead (which every reliever will do throughout the year) they pounce and suddenly it was obvious he shouldn't be in and can never hold a lead and should be cut and all this stuff, but they ignore the 7 leads (or down by 1 in that comeback situation) before the bad outing and act like those never happened.
  12. chpettit19
    Fair enough.
  13. chpettit19
    Of course they talked about a plan the day before! You think that's a new thing? You think they used to show up to the park and just wing it and these crazy, young, know-it-alls are getting crazy and sketching out plans the day before games instead of just waiting until they show up to the park on gameday? I'm not even defending Baldelli! I have, multiple times in this very thread, said he should've left Smeltzer in and had someone ready for Benintendi and that he made mistakes. What I've said is that it's not as blatantly egregious as people are making it sound. I've complained about Rocco constantly changing lineups. I've said he should've run for Sanchez last night. I've said I don't think Rocco is great and wouldn't be heartbroken if they replaced him, but also point out that you're not going to get someone in there that does things drastically different. I've been bashing the FO everyday since they sent Lewis down. I've been complaining about the rest days for stars all season. I've complained about their 3 true outcome building of a lineup. I've said, multiple times in this very thread, that I want Duffey replaced. But I've also provided real world actual happenings from the 2022 major league baseball season as an explanation of why allowing Duffey to even step foot on the field isn't the travesty you'd like to make it out to be. It's almost like I don't have a hardened stance on all things Rocco and FO and can both praise and be critical as different things happen instead of just labeling them as either just good or just bad.
  14. chpettit19
    Except, as I've already laid out in this thread, Duffey isn't "prone to coughing up leads." He literally pitched a scoreless 8th inning of a 2-0 game 3 days ago. And he pitched a scoreless 8th against this very Royals team 2 days before that. So I'll go ahead and call you crazy I guess. Although I feel biased is probably the better term here. Whit Merrifield is a .220 hitter this year. Why would we argue that what he's done in the current season doesn't matter? Whit Merrifield didn't have a positive OPS+ last year either. And he's 33. Is it possible he's declined as a baseball player? I'm sorry I'm taking actual happenings from this actual major league baseball season and forming opinions on that instead of just "Whit Merrifield is not a .220 hitter, I don't care what's happened so far (in 2022)" <- assuming that was a typing error there. What a weird argument. "Hey, this guy used to be good so let's ignore what he's been like this season and assume what he's a better hitter than he can show us he is. I mean he is hitting a whopping .231 against the Twins this year so I guess he's really slaughtering them while struggling against everyone else.
  15. chpettit19
    I missed the part of his quote that he said they'd decided the day before Smeltzer was only going 7. Like I've even gone back and watched it again now and don't hear him at any point mention that the decision was made the day previous. Is it possible that when he says "once the decision is made" he's talking about in the dugout during the 7th inning and by the time Smeltzer gets to the dugout the in game decision has been made? For the record I would've kept Smeltzer in as well. Disagreed with taking him out. Doesn't change the fact that Duffey, and anyone else in the pen, needs to be able to get a guy hitting .220 and slugging .318 out in the 8th, or any, inning. If the Twins only have 2 guys who can get that guy out (Duran and Smith apparently) they're screwed. What you're describing here is your, very frequently stated, bias against Rocco and the way he and the organization manage the bullpen, and pitchers in general. And also your bias for Duffey. Duffey got through the 8th inning of a 2-0 game on 5/24, but it was crazy to throw him in the 8th inning of a 2-0 game on 5/26? Is it possible that you just don't like Duffey and are ignoring his positive outings to then rage on his bad ones? I've said multiple times now that I would've had someone up and ready for Benintendi and that mistakes were made. I've said I'd like to see other arms brought in to push Duffey down the leverage spectrum. But I'm also able to take 1 blown lead by the pen as just 1 blown lead by the pen and not act like the Rocco is blowing games because the offense can't score more than 2 runs in a game.
  16. chpettit19
    You're just as biased about Duffey as Rocco and the FO seem to be, just in the opposite direction. It's more than reasonable that he pitched to Merrifield. Merrifield is slugging .318 this year. That's the same as Nick Gordon. If Duran is the only guy in the pen who can get a guy hitting .220 and slugging .318 out in the 8th the team is doomed anyways. Not having someone ready for Benintendi was the mistake. And I've said that multiple times now.
  17. chpettit19
    Why are we assuming Rocco was going to do something he hasn't done with Duffey last night? He hasn't had a 2 inning save all year. Being convinced that was the plan is simply not based on any real evidence. Yes, I agree the 8th in a 2-0 game is high leverage. That's my point. That's the role Duffey has had in most of his appearances. High leverage. I'm not a big fan. I want Alcala back to push Duffey down the line another spot, and I'd like another arm brought in to push him down further. I don't think his success is sustainable anymore. I'm just pointing out that he has been used in high leverage situations in 9 of 11 May appearances. You had stated that Rocco wasn't using him that way since the first week and that isn't accurate. That's exactly how he's been used. The only times he wasn't used in high leverage situations was 5/12 and 5/14 when he hadn't pitched since 5/8 so they had to get him in a game and then he's basically on an every other day schedule so threw in the 5/14 loss as well. I don't like that he's a high leverage guy, but he has been and he's done well more often than not.
  18. chpettit19
    He wasn't in a save situation last night he was in a hold situation. Don't get me wrong, I'd like an upgrade on Duffey. Not trying to make this into something it isn't. But Duffey's last 5 outings, including last night, have been in high leverage situations. 5/16 Save in 3-1 win, 5/20 7th inning hold in 6-4 win, 5/22 8th inning win in 7-6 win (he held the score in that comeback), 5/24 8th inning hold in 2-0 win, then last night he was thrown in the 8th inning with a 2-0 lead again.
  19. chpettit19
    I agree they should've run for Sanchez. Jeffers would've gone to C and they would've lost the DH. I'm not sure what makes it "in all likelihood, Rocco was hoping he would close out the game." There's no reason to believe that. Duffey has thrown more than 1 inning twice in 18 appearances. There's no reason at all to suggest Duffey was getting a 2 inning save when he hasn't been used like that all season. Closest situation was against the Orioles with a 3 run lead when he finished the 7th before pitching the 8th. The other situation was when they were down 4-0 against the Astros and he pitched the 6th and 7th. Suggesting there was any reason to believe he was getting a 6 out save isn't based on anything that's happened. Again, I would've pulled him after the Merrifield double and I'm not saying the was the right choice to leave him in or that he deserves no heat. Just saying the game was tied before anyone can say they'd have pulled him.
  20. chpettit19
    I said I wasn't saying it's the right decision. The game was tied before anyone can say they'd have pulled Duffey. I said having someone ready for Benintendi would've made sense. Duffey has made 18 appearances this season. He's allowed even 1 run in 5 of those. Can we not act like he's been getting shelled left and right? He hasn't allowed a single run in 73% of his outings. Before last night he'd allowed runs in 2 of his last 13 appearance. 3 runs in 13.1 innings. It's more than reasonable to have expected him to get out of an inning that started Out, 1B, Out unscathed. After the double I'd have pulled him. All I'm saying is it's not some crazy situation. The Royals pulled their guy after he loaded the bases with no outs. That's very different than 1 on 2 outs after 3 hitters. Rocco should've pulled him before they lost the lead, but Duffey has been good at not giving up runs so it wasn't like he left me out there to give up 15 runs with a 14 run lead.
  21. chpettit19
    Dang, I missed that. Thanks for the info! I certainly won't say it was the right decision last night, but I don't think it's as egregious as others do. It was 2 outs guy on first after the first 3 hitters. No reason to get anyone up and throwing then, right? Then you get a single. 2 out, guys on 1st and 2nd. Certainly a little nervous, but just needs 1 out and inning over. Whit Merrifield is a good baseball player, but he's also hitting like .220 this year. No problem with letting Duffey face him, but definitely a point in time that you'd think it's probably good to get someone up just in case he doesn't get Merrifield and things start getting ugly. After Merrifield doubles I'd definitely have someone up and throwing and I don't believe that happened so Rocco deserves some heat there. I think it's also reasonable if people think he should've had a lefty ready for Benintendi. Witt is also hitting about .220 this year so you'd expect him to get the out there. Then he gets Dozier. I get why people are upset, but I think when you look at how it played out it's not a terribly egregious decision. Guy on first, 2 outs turned into 3 runs in in a matter of 4 more hitters. If your relievers can't get 1 out in 4 hitters you're in trouble no matter what. Certainly reasonable that people would want someone ready for Benintendi, but by then the game was already tied. Tied is certainly better than trailing, but nobody can argue in good faith that they'd have taken Duffey out with 1 on 2 outs or 2 on 2 outs before Merrifield doubled. Offense not scoring with the bases loaded 0 outs is far more egregious in my mind.
  22. chpettit19
    Buxton playing through injury and getting mandatory rest/completely out of the game days, Correa getting rest days, and now Polanco being out for multiple days in a row is why they don't have 14 pitchers. If you're going to shorten your bench by 1 guy every game you need an extra bench guy. But they need to be at 13 pitchers after this weekend anyways. I do agree it's not great that they haven't been carrying 14 arms when they could be with these 18 games in 17 days or whatever the number is.
  23. chpettit19
    I can understand getting him some work in left since he's never played it before, but don't agree that he needs to get extra work at 3B if he's ready to hit in the majors. He's a better 3B now than Arraez is and they play Arraez there to get his bat in the lineup (before he was forced to 1B where they were ok with him playing a new position to get his bat in the lineup). Don't think it's the end of the world to get Lewis more work, but if Gordon continues to look like he does or Polanco continues to struggle with his ankle hurting or Urshela doesn't get his OPS up to at least .700 or Miranda keeps struggling and they start losing games while Lewis is mashing in AAA it's a massive mistake. This offense isn't good enough to ignore Lewis if he's one of their best bats.
  24. chpettit19
    Will be very interesting to see what they do with Lewis and Kirilloff. What will it take for Kirilloff to convince the FO that he's healthy/ready? If they feel he's ready would he replace Miranda even though he's not a righty? What does it take for Lewis to supplant Gordon knowing Gordon is likely lost to a rebuilding team if they try to send him back down? Is the only hope for either of them an injury to a current big leaguer? Be interesting to follow for sure. Hajjar looks like he's mastered A ball and is ready for a bump up to A+. As a 2nd round pick college arm I'd think they'd be willing to make that move pretty quick and challenge him a bit with relatively quick promotions as earned. Has anyone been watching games and know what Martin has been looking like? Are there changes to his swing and/or approach? That'd make me less concerned with his overall numbers if he's trying to make adjustments on the fly.
  25. chpettit19
    They are definitely going to need bullpen reinforcements. Maybe sooner than later. Problem is I don't know where that comes from. A trade sounds all well and good, but there has to be a team willing to deal in May, and you rarely find that. I sure hope there's internal conversations about a plan to bolster the pen, though. Canterino ready soon? Alcala still has 2 weeks on the IL, if I'm not mistaken. If Canterino could come up and be a 2 inning guy a couple times a week and Alcala can come back and resemble the guy he was at the end of last year that'd be huge. But I think some prospects need to head out for more established arms at some point. I'd prefer soon, but it's difficult to convince another team to trade guys in May.
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