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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    What results are you talking about?
  2. chpettit19
    Pitchers do not throw year round and it's because they have the finest trainers, etc. on the planet. You may think that's the way it should work, but people with a whole lot invested in these arms do a whole lot of research and talk to a whole lot of people who know way more than either of us could ever hope to know about this and they tell them not to do that. I mean you're basically arguing that spring training is a complete waste of time and that every major league organization (who, again, invest a whole lot into this stuff) is doing things wrong by having their pitchers spend several weeks gearing up before they can complete a single game. Players/pitchers today are "babied" more than ever because they're throwing harder and putting more stress on their bodies than ever before. It's the tradeoff the industry has decided makes the most sense. Better velo and "stuff" for shorter periods of time. You can disagree with that stance or dislike that style of play (I don't like it as I prefer starters who can go 7+ innings regularly), but I'm quite positive the baseball industry as a whole knows better what's best for the athletes they invest billions in.
  3. chpettit19
    Again, Chris Archer signed on March 29th and made 1 spring appearance. This was his 3rd time pitching in any sort of game action. If your expectations are that a pitcher is totally stretched out by their 3rd appearance I think you're going to be pretty disappointed. I mean you just sent a list of a bunch of guys who threw 80 some pitches after having a "full" spring training and you're mad that the guy with basically no spring training could only throw 76 before coming out? Sorry, I'm not swayed by that. You think that Walker Buehler guy is supposed to be a decent starter who goes deep into games? Only 5 innings and 79 pitches?! Is the rotation really where he belongs? Webb in the 2nd game of a double header could only go 3.2 on 75 pitches?! Should probably take him out of the rotation. I notice you left Cole's line out since he was bad and his manager pulled him before he gave up more runs. Weird that you find that acceptable, but Rocco pulling Archer after 1B, 1B, BB, BB in a 1 run game in the 5th is somehow unacceptable. Oh, and Alex Cobb got pulled for being "terrible in the 5th" which you don't seem to be complaining about even though he was only at 60 pitches. Sure glad the Twins didn't sign that guy cuz the rotation clearly isn't the spot for him!
  4. chpettit19
    I've been pleasantly surprised to see him sitting 94ish in his starts with a few at the 95 or 96 point. That's old Archer type velo and he was a very nice pitcher when he was throwing like that before. Agreed it's all about durability and stamina now. He seems to have his stuff back so we'll see if he can stretch out and start getting through 5 or 6 quality innings over the next handful of starts.
  5. chpettit19
    I don't know what the pitch by pitch data was telling them after the 4th, but it's quite possible they should've noticed. Hard to say for sure. The Dodgers took Kershaw out of a perfect game after 80 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him if he can't go more than 80 pitches? Short spring training has every team being very cautious with their starters. If he's getting gassed after 70 pitches in the middle of May there's a cause for concern, but he was a late signing in an already shortened spring training so I don't think there's much cause for concern right now.
  6. chpettit19
    The most shocking thing to me to start the year is that they haven't tried any piggy-backing at all really. Yes, Winder went 5.1 innings after Gray left with an injury, and Rodriguez went 4 against the Dodgers, but neither of those appeared to be the actual plan. I don't get the point of having one of your best prospect arms sitting in the pen never being used instead of putting him in the AAA rotation and calling up someone like Smeltzer for that long relief role if it's just going to be the typical "wait til a starter gets hurt or blows up" usage plan. Put Winder in St Paul and let him develop. I don't see how this pen is going to survive with throwing individual inning guys out there for 4 or 5 innings every night. They don't have the arms for that. I had a reasonable amount of hope they could have a solid staff by being creative with their usage of arms early when they can carry 16 guys, but they've just done things business as usual and the team definitely can't survive when they go down to 13 arms. I fully expect the starters to start getting more leash to go longer into games as we get into May and the staff size shrinks, but, as others have said, they seem to be sacrificing games early in the name of figuring out who they'll keep when the staff goes down to 13. Maybe when it shrinks they'll start being more creative or define roles better, but I'm not impressed with the strategy at all to this point. And I've been a rather big defender of the FO and Rocco to an extent. Thielbar is cooked and Duffey is looking like it, too. Losing Alcala after trading Rogers may be the undoing of the season since the pen was so thin to start. It sure isn't looking good so far.
  7. chpettit19
    Archer was clearly toast when Rocco pulled him. He'd given up 2 singles and back to back walks when he was pulled. He may have actually been slow in pulling Archer because he clearly ran out of gas.
  8. chpettit19
    Buxton gets hurt on offense and our response to that should be to have him only play the offensive side of the game to fix the problem of him getting hurt on offense? Yikes. Also some inaccuracies in this article. Buxton has served as DH, just last week actually. It was a big discussion point on this site as he DHed and Correa sat on the same day. And suggesting he was stretching a single into a double on the play he was hurt is quite a stretch in itself. He was jogging on what should've been a standup 2 base error and that's what caused him to slide.
  9. chpettit19
    This is the internet...we're all smart enough! Or so I'm told...
  10. chpettit19
    Larnach hitting fastball after fastball the other way right now is very encouraging. He still looks lost against changeups, but he seems to have a solid plan at the plate and has put some very nice swings on the ball lately.
  11. chpettit19
    Probably have to see how a second week goes before we render much judgement on anything. They played 6 games in just about the worst conditions you can play 6 straight major league baseball games in. Let's go ahead and give them double digit games before we start talking contraction.
  12. chpettit19
    Which is less than 1 standard deviation above 100 which puts him in the good part of average pitchers. And he was a 104 last year with some pretty awful peripherals. Which is why Oakland couldn't even get a top 10 system prospect for him and even had to attach a prospect of their own to Manaea in the deal. Manaea is very much a league average pitcher whether you like it or not. He'll most certainly get more innings this year than Winder (not accounting for a major injury to either party of course), but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see a Winder type rookie put up roughly the same type of ERA numbers (high 3s or low 4s, Manaea was at 3.91 last year) as Manaea in about 120 innings. In fact Ober (not exactly a highly rated prospect) almost did it last year. Ober threw 108.1 total innings last year coming off the pandemic year and with a heavy injury history so they were extra cautious with him. I have no problem with you liking Manaea, but he isn't the clearly above average pitcher you're attempting to make him sound like. And outside of his innings likely being in the 160-180 range compared to 120ish for any of the Twins rookies this year it's absolutely not unreasonable to think one of those young arms can produce a 3.91 ERA in 120 innings this year.
  13. chpettit19
    Every season except 2020. While you ignored 2019. You can claim he cannot be accurately described as "league average" all you want, but I've shown over and over that you're mischaracterizing him by suggesting he's more than league average. I have no problem with you viewing him as better than league average, but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim while I've provided multiple to disprove it.
  14. chpettit19
    I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.
  15. chpettit19
    So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.
  16. chpettit19
    Agreed on none of the prospects getting to 160. That number makes more sense there. I'm not misrepresenting his numbers at all. 2020 is not skewing his numbers as he only threw 54 innings in 2020. By that argument 2019 is skewing his numbers by having a 1.21 ERA in a small sample of 29.2 innings. For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. And many people have argued on here that the Padres got Manaea for basically nothing so it most certainly is not most certainly difficult to accumulate such pitchers. I wouldn't be shocked if Winder threw 100 innings of league average pitching this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all. Paddack has had a better season than Manaea ever has. And I also don't see anyone doing all that much praising of Paddack. In fact it's almost all very quiet hope that he can get back close to his peak. Which is higher than Manaea's. There's a difference between saying the trade was good value for the Twins and stumbling over ourselves to praise Paddack.
  17. chpettit19
    Touche. That's my bad.
  18. chpettit19
    1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse. 2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104. He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.
  19. chpettit19
    This was a thought of mine as well. There's certainly some evidence it may be the org as they also had a ton of pitchers who were expected to be great last year because they'd previously been great and they almost universally flopped. Musgrove was just about their only successful pitcher last year. Maybe it's more about the team than this specific arm. Or at least we can hang a little hope on the idea.
  20. chpettit19
    He was certainly the best reliever they had. No doubt about that. You won't hear details on which coaches they talked to and how the trade happened. When do we ever hear that stuff? Of course they have more recent insight into his health, but the Twins have already gone over some medical stuff and will have their team drs do an exam on him before the deal is completely finalized. All trades are based on assumed healthy players. If Paddack is hurt, or his elbow scans show more damage than the Padres were telling teams, the Twins pull out of the trade and it's no big deal. The Red Sox literally just did that to the Twins in the Graterol/Maeda deal. The Padres' staff's feelings on Paddack's value means nothing to the Twins. It's their view on the type of player they can turn him into that matters. And Tingler has every bit as much knowledge on his willingness to be coached up, his competitiveness, and all the other things that the team cares about as the current Padres staff.
  21. chpettit19
    I didn't say Rogers was bad. I said when Rogers was in the bullpen the bullpen was bad. You stated that when he wasn't healthy the bullpen was bad. That isn't true. When he was healthy (the first half of the season) the bullpen was terrible. After he got hurt the bullpen did very well. I'm not saying no Rogers was why it was good, but your statement "The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was very good. Your argument is that the FO's 2nd highest ranked coach was a trade target's manager the previous season and it's unlikely that they talked to said coach about that trade target? They should be fired if they didn't talk to him. This trade came together over 12 hours of time and you don't think they took the time to shoot Tingler a text at the very least and ask him if he thought Paddack could be coached up?
  22. chpettit19
    This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good. Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.
  23. chpettit19
    Not to mention it's a terrible idea to package your best trade chips.
  24. chpettit19
    I think they go committee early and if/when someone grabs hold of it they lock them in more permanently. Guessing it's a bunch of matchup based bullpen usage early on.
  25. chpettit19
    I don't like losing Rogers, but I don't mind this deal. Paddack's peripherals have been quite good and if he's able to get his ERA to more closely align with those peripherals this is a steal for the Twins. This likely puts more pressure on Alcala, Thielbar, and Duran to become big pen arms, but if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.
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