chpettit19

Terry Ryan was great in his first stint as he was very good at identifying talent and was ahead of the league in finding market inefficiencies to build a contender with a lower payroll. Bill Smith had that terrific international signing class, and basically nothing else. Completely whiffed on the biggest task he had and that was the Johan Santana situation. I think Smith was in way over his head, but leaving Sano, Kepler, and Jorge was certainly useful for Ryan and Falvey. Ryan was still very good at identifying talent when he came back, but, as @Trov said, the game had passed him by and he wasn't building a team that could compete in the current baseball environment and was way, way, way behind the times in terms of player development and technology. Falvey came in and updated the technology, analytics department, and player development programs and has had terrific success (outside of 2021) on the whole. He has done a great job of maximizing the players the previous regimes had left him. The great unknown is what players like Buxton, Rogers, and Duffey would've been under a Ryan lead regime. There were different philosophies that Ryan followed in pitching development, for example, than what Falvey has put in place. Would Ryan and Co. have pushed their coaches to teach Rogers his slider? No way to know for sure, but that's a Falvey staple in pitching development. I think Ryan gets put down more than he should (by me as well) for his second stint, but I have no doubt that firing him was the right move as the league passed him by. Always a fun thought exercise to look back and guess at what may have been under Ryan or Smith the last handful of years.

Baseball doesn't use the word "dead," but they have been very open that the ball is different now than in the 2019/2020 seasons. They designed them to go 2 feet less on fly balls. 2021 had a mix of the old balls and new balls so those stats are a little weird. The big question now is what are the humidors doing. All 30 stadiums now use humidors as opposed to just 10 before this season. The stadiums that had humidors already are seeing the ball travel 2 feet less, while the ones with new humidors are seeing the ball travel 10 feet less on average (Oakland is like 25 ft or something crazy). But there's a lot that goes into that. The drag on the ball is higher this year which could be from them going from dry to humid conditions and then dry then humid as that could be making the seems rise and increase drag. It will be really interesting to see what the season long stats look like on ball distance and if certain stadiums see big jumps at certain times of the year when the humidor is drying the ball towards the end of the year instead of adding humidity like they are now. All that to say that I agree we'll need more data to see the long-term trends, but the baseball itself is also "deadened" on purpose. But it's been great to see the Twins take advantage of the shorter distance and rack up some fly ball outs!

The "no structural damage" part is the super concerning part. He was looking great before the injury last year and it looked like he was ready to take his spot in the heart of the Twins order for much of the next decade. Him still playing through things right now leads me to think the Drs don't have much of an answer to what's wrong and that could be absolutely devastating. If the medical answer is "rub some dirt on it" then he should go back to AAA (or the facility in Florida?) and work on making adjustments to his swing. That would be horrible for him and hope it isn't the answer as he'd basically be rebuilding his lifelong swing. If the medical answer is another procedure or rest or something actually medical he should go on the IL. Maybe even the 60 day. Losing basically another season would be terrible, but he clearly isn't himself right now and looks miserable (as in he's having no fun at all) out there. I'd keep Godoy on the roster when Arraez comes back and send Kirilloff away. Either the IL or the minors. He's far more important and they need to get him figured out sooner than later.

He certainly wasn't a bust. He may not have been everyone's favorite style of player (I hate 3 true outcomes hitters), but he was most definitely a useful player over the course of a full season. His problem was always the streakiness where he'd have 2 weeks of striking out 75% of the time and 2 weeks of hitting bombs seemingly every other AB. There's no reason to not give him more ABs in the warm weather when he gets back to see if he can get hot and carry the team for a month, but there's also no reason to pick up his option for next year. Expectations have really killed the perception of his career to this point. He's been an above average hitter, but when you're compared to a top 5 right handed hitter of all time throughout your entire minor league career it's hard to meet those expectations. I hope Miguel moves on after this season and does become "the next Ortiz." Why would we not want someone to succeed? It's unfortunate he could never quite put it all together here, but I hope he gets on one or two last scorching streaks to end this season with the Twins and moves on to a new spot and continues to mash 450 foot HRs.

This is the fun/challenge of prospects right here. Martin is attempting to change his approach to hitting and his swing on the fly at AA. That presents a challenge to judging him based on his stats. I was disappointed to see his ST swing look exactly like his swing from last year. I was hoping he'd come in with some changes already made, but he didn't appear to change much of anything in his power reducing swing from last season. His swings now are looking different. He's more upright and has a more prototypical power swing. Is he able to tie it all together and be a high average and decent to solid power bat in the bigs? Only time will tell. But judging him off his numbers now is difficult. Arraez has never, and will never, be a guy who's changing his swing drastically to attempt to get to more power. He's a high average, low power hitter through and through. So of course he's had better averages. Martin is working on changing his swing and approach. If he were sticking with being a high average, low power hitter and kept his super crouched, punch it to right field swing and approach and all he was trying to do this year was hit for a high average and he was failing I'd be concerned. That's not what he's trying to do, though. We're trying to judge a kid in the middle of his adjustments. Hard to get a good read on his future just by looking at his numbers when he's at this point. That swing yesterday was incredibly encouraging, but that was just 1 swing and doesn't at all mean he's adjusted and found a new swing. Lots of work to be done still. We should worry about him the same way we worry about every other prospect until he reaches the majors and establishes himself. But I don't think judging things simply based on his numbers is a good route to take at this point.

Correa finger not broken. Day-to-day. Hopefully Lewis goes bonkers over the weekend and the Twins have a very tough choice to make about what to do with the roster when Arraez returns.

MN sports team doing well so we need to find something to question our faith to ensure we don't get our hopes too high.

Good info! Thanks for sharing! Will be interested to see what he looks like for the couple months he has left before the draft. Been an interesting last year+ for him.

It's an interesting situation, right? I certainly don't think that's a bad strategy. It's not the way I'd go as I want more "certainty" (there's no such thing in a draft, but relative certainty) with a top 10 pick. I'd rather take a supreme, up the middle positional talent at the top over an arm. I just think it's harder to find a Byron Buxton type later in the draft (Mike Trout being the obvious counterpoint there). I wouldn't be mad or call for Falvine's collective heads if they follow the strategy you laid out. It certainly has merits. I wouldn't predict it, though, as they believe it's easier to find successful arms outside the top of the draft (which I agree with) than it is to find difference making bats. I think they need to work on their process for picking which bats to take early, but I think the overall strategy is sound. Jackson Holliday is the kid I want (with a realistic chance of being around at #8) as of today. I just think that the plan is to not be in the top 10 again for years and a positional superstar is worth more than a pitching ace so I want to take my chance at an up-the-middle star when I'm this high. Now if there's nothing but corner bats available at 8 I change my strategy and a Lesko type becomes a possibility, but if there's a potential star SS, CF, or C available I'm taking them.

It'd be an awfully impressive move to go from being drafted 10th overall to not signing because of physical concerns to not playing for a year (to my knowledge he still isn't playing anywhere, but maybe I missed a story on that) to being drafted 8th overall. I'd love Kumar in the second, but taking him 8th would be pretty frustrating.

The only worry I have is how long they'll continue to mess with him as a SS option and how hard they'll push for him to be a power hitter. I worry they try to force him into the "superstar SS" mold and try to get him to be something he isn't for another couple years and then he's 25 and hasn't gone anywhere. I get why they think he can hit for power (he's hit some super impressive HRs over the last couple seasons) and they absolutely should try to get more out of him, but they need to quit with the SS nonsense and not try to get more power out of him for too long. A right handed Arraez with speed and a better glove is still a very useful player. To me the power thing is more about his mental approach. A lot like Miranda. Miranda struggled because he could hit everything so swung too much, but once he changed his strategy at the plate he went nuclear in the minors. I think Martin is the kind of guy you should have looking to lift and separate early in the count by having 1 pitch in 1 spot he's looking for and trying to launch on. If he doesn't get it and gets a strike on him dial the swing back a little and expand the selection he's looking for. Then with 2 strikes let him do his slap hitting thing and get on base. The question is how well he can adapt and adjust his swing from the power stroke to the base hit one. Also reminds me of Larnach who they tried turning into a pull happy power guy and got away from his natural left-center swing. He's back to using the whole field and looking good, but doesn't have a HR yet. He showed he can hit mammoth HRs last year and I think if he sits on a pitch early in the count it could lead to him hitting for power early in counts before adjusting to his left-center swing later in the count to maintain a high average. It's all part of developing, though. And it's never linear. And never easy. But I'm not worried about Martin's baseball ability at this point.

Pretty bad game all around. Correa with an error. Miranda not a great showing defensively (one ball hit 99.6 and another at 107 was encouraging, though!). Celestino with a ball or 2 he probably should've caught. Correa's relay sailing a little on him and missing the out at the plate. Sanchez wearing one off the bat on what would've been a run scoring single. Bundy having 2 blowup innings. 5 DPs hit into. Was just one of those games. Flush it an move on. Don't need to fire Baldelli or start cutting people cuz of 1 game. It was just 1 game.

If Lewis is hitting over .300 with solid power still in June and there's a hole on the ML roster while the team is still contending I'd hope they bring him up. I think developing his glove at short should be a very high priority this year, but I think he can continue to work on that while playing LF (for example) with the Twins. Following Correa around and copying his routine for half the season would provide some development opportunities I'd think. So to me it's a question of how important the actual game reps are compared to the need on a contending Twins team. 1 start a week at SS in Minneapolis with 4 starts in LF a week and daily infield drills with a platinum glove winning SS seems like a decent enough situation for him to continue to develop while helping the Twins try to win a division. That's all assuming he continues to hit like he is.

With Lewis' ability (he looked good in the AFL) to play CF I'd think he'd be the perfect player to keep around knowing Buxton is always 1 play away from a 2 month trip to the IL. If Lewis reaches his ceiling he's far better than an "above average 3B or a skilled outfielder." He's Ronald Acuna Jr who is a part time CFer, but has spent most of his career in a corner OF spot. Or Mookie Betts who plays RF. Now if you don't think he reaches his superstar ceiling then trading him could make some sense. But if you think he's going to reach his ceiling you don't even consider trading him until you can't pay him to stay.

Fire Falvine they're the worst FO ever! Oops, wrong thread ? It's only been a month, but it's really nice to see so many prospects developing so well. This is how a team draws it up. Good major league team with a growing number of replacement options on the farm to step in when injuries or poor performance hit the big club. It's almost like there was a plan. I agree with the many people noting it's most likely a pitcher who's next up. I'd be absolutely shocked if they were willing to simply cut Sano loose so he'll be back at some point (sounds like he may have surgery?) and they'd let him see if the warm weather has him back to mashing before cutting him loose. Kirilloff is ahead of any other prospect so once he's healthy he'll be back. Garlick will get more chances to mash lefties. With those bats coming back at various times I'd expect it to be harder for a prospect bat to break through as I even expect Miranda to be the one sent out if/when one of those 3 is back during May. There are also a lot of non-prospect arms in line that could get shots before the prospect arms, but this FO seems much more comfortable cutting bullpen arms loose in short order than bats so I'd guess a prospect in the bullpen would be the next "big" prospect move. Maybe Canterino. I love him and wish he could stay a starter, but at this point I'd honestly look real hard at putting him in the pen for good. He's only 24 so there's plenty of time for him to establish himself as a starter, but with the Rice connection and him not having thrown many innings at all since 2019 (he threw 124.1 that year between college and his first pro ball stint) the injury concerns would have me looking at making him a weapon out of the bullpen. I'd love for him and Duran to both get shots at starting down the road, but I think they have the best stuff in the org and if they're going to compete the next couple years they may be the 2 best options for lights out relievers the Twins have. I'd certainly think hard about seeing what they can do together in the pen this year.

Fangraphs shows Godoy as having options left. Are you suggesting they should get him off the 40-man to add someone or were you thinking he was out of options and that was the only choice they had in sending him down?

My understanding is that the Twins lost their 3rd round pick (88th overall I believe) for signing Correa so 8, 48, and 68 should be accurate.

Jackson Holliday would be the guy I was hoping for with a realistic chance of being available at 8 if the draft were today. I don't want anything to do with a pitcher at the 8 spot, but a lot of that has to do with me being generally against drafting HS pitchers high and there's no college arms worth even talking about in the 8 spot. If the plan is not to be drafting anywhere near the top 10 again for a long time (and why wouldn't that be the plan?) I take the highest upside up the middle player available at 8. As @Sielk said, I prefer SS, CF, C or P at the top of the draft. If you're in the top 10 you have to be taking a swing at a star. I won't be super upset with Lesko being the pick, but I'd definitely go with one of the catchers or SSs if the Twins have them all graded similarly. Have to nail this pick since the hope is they're not close to the top 10 again for a while.

I agree looking strictly at exit velocity is a bad way to do things. But comparing any player to one of the 3 or 4 best right handed hitters in the history of the game is also a really bad way to do things.

Expecting Kirilloff to be back on the IL sooner than we'd like is actually why I'd send Larnach down. I'd get him back to AAA and in the lineup everyday so he can build on the progress he's made (at least I think he's made progress) in Minneapolis and hit the ground running when Kirilloff heads back to the IL. That's how I'd play it this early in the season at least. Things will obviously change as the season goes on and we'll see if/when Sano gets on his surface-of-the-sun-hot streak. If Kirilloff stays healthy for a month and Larnach and/or Miranda are mashing in AAA and Sano is still struggling I think the formula changes. But right now I'd prefer Kirilloff and Larnach both getting as many ABs as possible and think Larnach in AAA is the way to get that.

My guess is Larnach goes down when Kirilloff comes back. Celestino and Godoy go down when the rosters shrink. Or at least that's what I'd do.

Is Kirilloff healthy? If not he's not the answer right now. Is Miranda all that good? He hasn't been great in AAA yet this year and hadn't been good before an out of this world season last year. Suggesting he can replicate what Sano is likely to do over the course of a full season is a big leap of faith. Sanchez is basically a poor man's Sano so not sure why he'd be the answer. Jeffers? How does he give you Sano's production in any way (over the course of a full season)? Arraez would be my 1B or DH everyday. But that doesn't mean moving on from Sano (I read moving on as taking him off the roster) to me. It means making Sano a part time player until things click and he goes on his 2 week heater and carries the offense. When Kirilloff comes back I'd make Sano the short end of a platoon at first. Once he seems to be getting things going (that last hit last night was a good sign) I'd give him his 2 weeks as an everyday player while he bashes 12 homeruns in 13 games and wins a handful of games on his own. Then when he falls apart again I bench him unless Miranda has gotten going again and then I'd look to trade or cut him. I just don't see what cutting Sano now does. Does anyone really doubt he'll go on a crazy tear sometime in the next month or so? He always does. Every year. And the Twins don't have anyone kicking the door down to take his spot in the meantime. I mean Sanchez and Kirilloff have already missed time with injuries. Arraez misses time pretty regularly. Miranda hasn't gotten going yet. The Twins don't have a ready replacement so let him work through it (preferably in a part time role) until he does on his run or until someone takes his spot.

I watched the replay a couple times before I commented and it didn't look like the first basemen was really aware of what was happening so I think Sano would've made it back alright, but it certainly may have been close. Either way it was a mistake and both Urshella and Sano need to be much more aware of the situation.

I'd have given it an error. He mini-jumped and mostly extended because he had a terrible read on it and didn't get to the spot. I understand why they didn't give him an error, but that ball should've been caught. The over then back route at about 75% speed cost Grossman and a competent fielder catches that ball. It was Sano's best swing of the year, though. So that was good at least.

Urshella making his own mistake doesn't mean Sano's original decision to go to second wasn't a bad base running play. It was. It just didn't have a big consequence on it's own since he could've made it back with no issue since the 1B wasn't there. But "assuming either a runner was going home or had already" is a mistake and shows a great lack of situational awareness. It was 100% a mistake. Just wasn't the biggest mistake on the play.