chpettit19

It's an "eh" depth move. Nothing to write home about. But, even given he's not a good hitter, he's significantly better than Celestino at this point in their careers. Taylor's career OPS is only .677. Not impressive at all. But Celestino has had an OPS over .600 for 2 months of his (short) MLB career. Last August he was a .606. May he was at .844 and it made his overall season look slightly less than completely and utterly unplayable. He OPSed .458 in June and .477 in July in 2021. March/April of 2022 he was at .581, June .589, July .468, September/October .552. He needs to be in AAA. He's absolutely, totally, and completely not ready for major league baseball yet.

Celestino needs to progress at AAA. He's not ready for MLB yet. That's abundantly clear. Having him back in AAA is by far the better option for him and his development.

Will be interesting to see where the position player moves go from here. Right now I have the 13 position players as: Jeffers- C only Vazquez- C only Correa- SS only Farmer- IF/cOF or C in a pinch Miranda- cIF/2B in a pinch Polanco- 2B only Buxton- CF only Gallo- OF/1B or 3B in a pinch Gordon- Utility with emphasis on OF Kepler- OF/1B in a pinch Kirilloff- 1B/cOF Larnach- cOF only Taylor- OF only Obviously all eligible to DH as well. But that's a lot of versatility. Even if they all have dominant position areas, there's a lot of guys who can cover other spots. And those are all guys who deserve a legit MLB shot. Wouldn't be shocked if they stick with this or if they make more moves. FO is cooking now.

A sliding catch? Yippy, I guess. Delmon Young probably made a couple sliding catches, too. Does that mean he wasn't brutal? Josh Willingham probably snagged one or two as well. Should he have won a gold glove? You can be convinced of whatever you want. I love Arraez. He's been my favorite Twin since he got called up. I'm going to renew my MLB.tv subscription this year simply to be able to watch him play. I'm super bummed they traded him. That doesn't make him a good left fielder. He was a terrible left fielder. Him being traded didn't change that. He was a terrible left fielder last week, last month, last year.

My lifetime of experience says he was rotten.

Wow. 27 games and no errors is your proof? The standards are set low around here.

Provide your own data then. It's "common sense" according to you. So it should be real easy to provide me with this very simple data. Luis Arraez was a terrible left fielder. Absolutely terrible. And they have about 6 other left handed hitting corner outfielders. There was no reason for him to play outfield. But if you're trying to suggest it's his knee issues I'll just point out that the Twins also moved him off 3B and 2B. So not a great argument there. Carlos Correa lost like $150 million this offseason because teams think he's wearing down. Jorge Polanco couldn't finish last year because he's breaking down. Max Kepler missed the end of last year with a wrist sprain. That what we're worried about with Lewis? Too many OFers spraining their wrists? Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Nomar Garciappara, Mike Sweeney, Eric Chavez. I can go on and on with guys who's careers ended prematurely, or were dramatically altered, by injuries who only played IF. I'll bet you 100 real dollars he's absolutely in line to play more OF. I mean you suggest it's just so clearly obvious that the OF is more dangerous. So why were they willing to put him there last year? I mean it's common sense. Why would they have ever put him out there if it was so super obvious playing the OF is extra dangerous. They didn't have any other injury struggles with any superstar OFers before that to help guide them? Why is San Diego willing to risk Tatis and his 300+ million they owe him? Don't they know he's doomed out there? Or the Dodgers and Betts? Don't they know he was a 2B and it'd be way safer for him to move back to the IF? Or is it that these billion dollar corporations have done way more research on this than your "lifetime of experience" and they aren't worried about their hundred million dollar professional athlete investments being ruined because they have to run? What do concussions have to do with this? Especially when your 2 examples are guys who never played OF!!!! Making sure he's available as a backup SS is maximizing his potential?! That big bat has to play somewhere. How far into the future are we saving him for? Just naming OFers who've been hurt doesn't prove your point. Because I can name just as many IFers.

So, no, you have no proof of it, it just feels that way. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but it's not "common sense" that Lewis shouldn't play OF. Why isn't Trout a 1B then? Or just a DH. Or Judge. He'd be a huge target to throw to at first. Mookie Betts was an infielder when he first started, but now he's a gold glove outfielder. Both Upton brothers were SS that moved to the OF. The Padres are shifting their $340 million man from SS to RF this season. You don't think going full speed to his right to backhand a ball, plant and throw back across the field puts any strain on his knee? Or going up the middle to get to a ball and planting and spinning to throw to first? If it was so "common sense" that OFers are at such higher risk to be injured it'd be super easy to prove. There'd be data for it. https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php According to this article the OF doesn't look any more dangerous than the IF to me. CF averaged 1 more day on the IL than 3B. Only 10 more than SS. LF, CF, RF combined averaged 1 more day than 3B, SS, and 2B combined. Shoot, DHs averaged as many as RFers. If it were so obvious that OFers were getting hurt more than IFers it'd be really easy to prove.

Do you have data to support this? I see this claim relatively frequently, but I'm yet to see anyone be able to show that it's actually true.

I'd guess he's the first one on the chopping block, but I just want Pagan to go away so I'm willing to release him for anyone. I'd sign you and put you on the 40-man over Pagan, and I've never even see you play baseball!

It obviously won't be at the start of the season, but Lewis is the answer here. I'd have him set to be the RFer of the future once he comes back, and the primary Buxton replacement. Maybe Martin tears the cover off the ball all spring and he's the early season option to take one of Paddack or Canterino's 40-man spot? Short-term they have a real need here (and I'd like to see another bat added in general, but not sure what the options really are for that anyways), but I'm not worried long-term as Lewis is the perfect answer to me.

If I'm remembering correctly, about 66% of 1st round picks even make the major leagues. With that as the bench mark, and not counting the picks from 2020-2022 as it's not realistic to expect players from the last 3 years to have debuted yet, the Twins were 5/7. This regime was 2/3. That's not too bad. Nothing to claim they're great at, but nothing to be upset about either.

The first thing I notice is that the vast majority of their starting pitching was acquired via MLB trade. I don't know if that'd be the case if guys like Canterino, Ober, and Winder could stay healthy, but that's where things are at. The key moving forward now is filling that rotation with more pre-arb guys. Ryan, SWR, Varland, and Balazovic need to step up and take over 60% of the rotation. Ryan is already there. So need 2 of the others, at a minimum, to step in as well. Ober is an interesting piece. He's broken down basically every year of his career, and a move to the pen may be the move for him, unfortunately. Same with Canterino and Winder. But a pen of Duran, Jax, Alcala, Moran, Canterino, Ober, and Winder could be real cheap and real good if they can all stay healthy in those roles. Prielipp and Raya are also really big pieces moving forward (but not on the 40-man so didn't want to discuss too much in this thread). The second thing I notice is that they seem to have a really good ability to develop legit MLB quality position players. They need their star position players to be healthy, but the last few years have seen a pretty steady flow of legit major league prospects graduating or being traded for current major leaguers. Steer and CES can be added to the current stable of Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, and Gordon. I'm not sold on Celestino, but that's 10 guys in the last couple years who look like guys legitimately worthy of a shot in major league baseball. You can build a team around that kind of development.

Twins pitchers and catchers report Feb 16, and position players Feb 20. Unless they're playing the WBC, and then it's the 13th and 16th respectively. Less than a month before things start getting going! Kirilloff is already in FL at the complex, and reports are he's swinging freely. But he was also feeling good at this time last year so that's no guarantee of anything. I think having a backup plan for him is entirely reasonable even though things are looking really good right now. Larnach was actually one of the best graded outfielders in baseball in his short time last year. Not saying we should take that as gospel, but he was significantly improved defensively last year. Certainly a downgrade from Kepler, but almost every RFer in baseball is a downgrade from Kepler. I haven't seen many reports on his health, but I believe he is healthy right now.

Trading for these types of guys with with just a couple years of control left likely isn't sustainable. But isn't a bad part of an overall strategy. They need to start developing some frontline guys in house. Whether by drafting and developing, using the international signing period and developing, or trading for prospects and developing. A mix of improved development (I think they develop major league pitchers pretty well, but need to produce some frontline guys. My hope is on Prielipp) and these types of good, not great pitchers that they can turn into great pitchers would be wonderful and lead to real success. I will say that if Duran, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Canterino, Ober, Winder, and Henriquez can form a shutdown bullpen that is definitely a nice bit of internal development. Canterino, Winder, and Ober on the list due to real questions about their ability to hold up in the rotation.

Respectfully, you're wrong here. For 1 thing, as a singles hitter Arraez wouldn't try to beat the shift by hitting over it, he'd just lay down a bunt or slap the ball to left since he's most likely to get a single anyway. You wouldn't be taking anything away from him by shifting him. You'd actually be making his life easier. For a 2nd thing, there were 19 of 30 teams who shifted left handed hitters over 50% of the time. And only 2 that didn't shift them at least 40% of the time. You really think they shifted him 2% of the time on accident?

Wait, you're surprised teams didn't shift him more to the right based on that spray chart? I mean that thing is about as shift proof as you can get. Last year he pulled the ball (so to the right) 28.4% of the time (27.1% for his career), hit it up the middle 41.2% of the time (40.4% for his career), and went oppo (so to the left) 30.4% of the time (32.5% for his career). Why would teams shift him ever, let alone to the right?

If they can get about 25 starts a piece out of their top 5 guys I think they have a real shot at the division. That would leave about 40 starts to be covered by the young guys. One of which is probably Ober since it doesn't sound like he'll start the season in the rotation as of now. If he gives you 20 starts and you're looking at about 145 starts out of Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober I think they win the division.

Comparing to the White Sox and Guardians is interesting. Both of them have guys with far better chances to be #1s, no doubt about it. But during the regular season (to me, if you're talking "3rd best team in the division" you're talking regular season) I'd argue the Twins ability to role out a deeper rotation than either squad puts them in a good spot to compete. If you're a believer in fWAR you should be relatively happy with the Twins regular season rotation (playoffs is a different argument). Last year the top 5 guys for the White Sox (Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger, Kopech) totaled 9.5 fWAR between them (average 1.9), and made 130 starts (average 26). The Guardians top 5 (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac) totaled 12.9 fWAR between them (average 2.58), and made 137 starts (average 27.4). The Twins top 5 guys (Lopez, Gray, Maeda (stats from 2021), Ryan, Mahle) had a total of 11 fWAR (average 2.2) and made 127 starts (average 25.4). Top 15 guys in order of fWAR from last year (or Maeda's 2021 when he only made 21 starts and people thought he was having a down year before he was hurt): Bieber- 4.9 in 31 starts Cease- 4.4 in 32 starts McKenzie- 3.6 in 30 starts Lopez- 2.8 in 32 starts Gray- 2.4 in 24 starts Quantrill- 2.2 in 32 starts Ryan- 2.1 in 27 starts Mahle- 2.1 in 23 starts Lynn- 1.9 in 21 starts Giolito- 1.8 in 30 starts Maeda- 1.6 in 21 starts (sub in Ober at 1.4 in only 11 starts if you want) Civale- 1.3 in 20 starts Kopech- 1 in 25 starts Plesac- .9 in 24 starts Clevinger- .4 in 22 starts I won't lie, some of those numbers surprised me. I think part of the struggle is that we watch/follow the Twins constantly while we only follow those other teams on the periphery. The Guardians get a ton of credit for their pitching, but the back end of their rotation is not great. Plesac and Civale are worse than any Twins starter, and Quantrill is right in the same category as the main Twins guys. Their advantage is Bieber and McKenzie, but that's a bigger advantage in the playoffs than the regular season. The White Sox are banking on Kopech figuring it out and Clevinger getting back to being even half of what he was in Cleveland back in the day. Cease is likely better than anyone the Twins can throw out there, but Lynn isn't getting younger, and Giolito is far from a sure thing. They'd both be right in the mix with what the Twins are doing. For 162 games it sure looks like the Twins have the ability to run out a deeper rotation than either of these teams (unless Cleveland brings up another superstar prospect which is always a possibility). I wouldn't say the Twins pitching is any sort of distant 3rd here, and has a very real chance of being better than the White Sox and challenging the Guardians for overall performance.

Wouldn't the change in the shift rules hurt Arraez's value? He wasn't shifted on to start with so he's not going to hit any better than he did simply because of the shift (he might hit better, but the shift wouldn't be why). But other guys will. If the rest of the league is now hitting for a higher average because of the shift ban, doesn't it make Arraez hitting for average a less valuable commodity?

If Chourio makes the bigs at all it'll be quite impressive. I don't bank on any 17 year old who hasn't even debuted in full season ball making the bigs. He's just a nice lottery ticket to have. But I think 3 years for Salas seems reasonable. As far as prospects go, he's got as good a shot as any. My hope is that he ends 2023 in AA. If he does that he's a big time prospect and on the doorstep. A Miranda style season this year would be incredible and I'd very much like it. I'm not a Lopez believer. Cognitive dissonance has me trying to see the positives in him now that he's on the Twins, but I was very much against a 1 for 1 swap of Arraez for Lopez. But adding a borderline (some evaluators have him in, some don't) top 100 global prospect in the deal makes it reasonable to me. Really hope Julien tears Spring Training apart and is the leadoff hitter for the Twins sooner than later. Assuming there's no other trades that bring in a leadoff hitter type.

Ok. But 2025 isn't 4 years away. It's 3 seasons away. If he's debuted in the majors at the age of 21/22 this trade would be a massive win for the Twins.

The comp to me, as a player, is a young(er) Brooks Lee. Switch hitting SS who has the hands and arm to stick, but maybe not the lateral quickness. Comes from a baseball family (Lee's dad being a college coach, and basically every male in Salas' family playing professional baseball). Currently more hit and approach than power, but there's hope 20 HRs a year is doable down the line. If they end up with 2 switch hitters who can bat .280+ with 15-20 HRs in a few years I think we'll all be really happy. I hope the kid ends 2023 in AA. That'd be a huge step for this system. Salas and Rodriguez in AA at the end of the year? That's what my dreams are made of.

What makes Salas "at least 4 years away?"

I guess it depends what your definition of "decent" is. To me, Kepler is the very definition of a "decent" bat, as he's only had 1 year truly above average, but the rest of the time is right about league average. While I think the effect of the shift ban is seriously overstated by some fans, if he had 12 more singles last year his BA would've jumped 30 points. Now that wasn't a full season of ABs, so the stats are a little skewed. But he did play a full season back in 2018, and 12 extra singles there would've raised his batting average from .224 to .246. Even 6 more singles would've raised his BA to .235 that year. It's part of why batting average isn't looked at as being so important anymore. Another example: if Luis Arraez had 3 fewer hits last year he would've beaten Judge for the batting title by .0002. 4 fewer hits and he'd have lost by .002 points. It's why teams tend to care more about overall batting performance, and not just BA.