chpettit19

I'd rather just put Ober in the pen than trade him for May. Let alone give up Canterino (I think he'll be in the Twins pen sometime in 2024) on top of that.

The question to me is why he's dominant, and then his ability to find another way to be dominant if his current way wouldn't work in the rotation. Was he dominant in the pen because he could just let it rip for 20 or 30 pitches and his stuff was so good nothing else really mattered? If that's the case then you have to worry about him not being dominant as a starter in the minors even though he wasn't throwing a ton of innings per start. Then the question is could he improve his control, pitch sequencing, etc. to improve his numbers as a starter and become the ace we'd hope for. I don't know the answers to those questions so I don't have a real strong opinion on him being a starter or staying in the pen. I don't think him wanting to be a starter should mean the Twins put him back in the rotation, though. It's their jobs to put players in the best positions to succeed, not just put them where they want to be. You don't think most relievers want to be starters? Don't think every middle relief guy wants to be a closer? Don't think infielders all want to play SS and hit 3rd? I'd also continue to use him in the fireman role he was in last year. He'd be the guy I bring in for all the high leverage situations, and to face the heart of the other team's lineup. I think it's just as hard to find a guy who can excel in that role as it is to find a guy who can lock down the 9th in a 1 run game.

It's crazy how different this lineup could look throughout the year. Opening day (assuming KC is starting a righty which is highly likely): Buxton Polanco Correa Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending who had the best spring Miranda Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 2nd best spring Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 3rd best spring Vazquez Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending on who had the 4th best spring Bench: Jeffers, Farmer, Taylor, Gallo or Kirilloff or Larnach or Gordon or Kepler depending who had the 5th best spring Reasoning: I'm a believer in getting your best bats as many ABs as possible throughout the year. Leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off 1 inning so I'm not as concerned about getting a prototypical guy there. Polanco between Buxton and Correa is hopefully a way to get him to see more righties than lefties as he's much better against righties and the other team is likely to have their lefties saved for the lefties in the 2nd half of the order. Who gets pinch hit for, and when, will be an interesting situation to watch. Even their willingness to pinch hit their 2nd catcher on any given day. Do they trust Farmer to step behind the plate if needed due to injury late in a game? Hopefully all the lefty bats means Rocco et al will play the hot hand as often as possible. But with injuries and young guys knocking on the door that lineup could look vastly different by June/July/August.

I'm a huge believer in Royce so my opinion may be biased, but there are plenty of guys on his list that don't have a position (mostly Cs who may not stay behind the plate) or are blocked at the big league level so I'm not super sold on that point. The not playing in 4 years is hard to argue with, though. And I think that's a fair explanation.

His response to a question about why no Royce Lewis on the list: "He's barely played in four years and has no position. Still a prospect, and I'm glad they cleaned his swing/lower half up, but I don't know where he plays at this point."

What the Dodgers did to him is different than what some people here are suggesting. People here are suggesting putting him in the pen to start the year. I think it'd be much harder for him to get out of the pen and into the rotation to reach his incentives that way. The Dodgers gave him at least 20 starts in all 4 years of his time there. That's at least an extra $2 million a year (1 million for 15 starts, and 1 for 20 starts). They gave him at least 25 starts in 3 of his 4 years. That's an extra $1.5 million each of those years. They gave him 32 starts his first year. That's an extra $3 million (1.5 for 30 starts, and 1.5 for 32 starts). They also gave him at least 120 innings all 4 years. That's an extra $1 million per year (250k for 90, 100, 110, and 120 innings). They gave him 130, 150, 170 innings in the other years which added an extra 250k, 750k, and 1.25 million in those years respectively. Putting him in the pen straight out of the gates would be way different as he wouldn't hit a single incentive (no reliever in baseball hit 90 innings last year). I'm sure he wasn't super happy with the Dodgers, but I'd think he'd be way more upset with the Twins if they just threw him in the pen like has been suggested.

It's a real bad look for an org to put somebody with that kind of contract into the pen without giving him a chance to start. Pitchers get TJ all the time now and aren't automatically relegated to the pen. They're almost always just put right back into the rotation. It's not even about re-signing Maeda, but the perception they'd get with future FAs around the league. Those types of contracts aren't super common, but you'd struggle to sign another guy to something with inning or start incentives if you show you'll just throw them in the pen and cost them literally millions of dollars. It would be interesting if they approached him about restructuring his deal, though. Doesn't sound like they have any plan to, but it should certainly be an option if they feel they have enough rotation depth elsewhere. Ober is a really tough guy to figure out a plan for. He's done nothing at all to make anyone believe he can throw a full season's load of starters innings. He's a far bigger injury risk than Maeda is, in my opinion. Is basically established that much more than 100 innings just won't happen. He'd be the guy I'd piggyback off Maeda early. Or just be a general long arm in the pen. Or put him in AAA and cross my fingers he doesn't get hurt before he's needed in the bigs.

I agree. It's very much about being able to find the right way to connect with each individual. And knowing what kind of help and info each guy wants. Correa loves all the data. Some guys don't. But overall I think the impact of major league hitting coaches is severely overstated by fans. They're important, but if they could just make everybody good they'd all be Trout. At some point the player's skill is simply maxed out and there's nothing any coaching can do. It's why everyone on these boards aren't major league baseball players.

https://theathletic.com/4118906/2023/01/25/mlb-hitting-coach-jobs/ Really interesting article on The Athletic today for those who have a subscription. Some interesting tidbits for those who can't, or don't want to, read it: "The average length of tenure for active MLB hitting coaches is about 2.4 years." Only 2 MLB hitting coaches have held their current position for more than 5 years (Seitzer in Atlanta, Mottola in Tampa) Seitzer talks about the transition in Atlanta as the organization got deeper into the analytics and how it changed his job there. Seitzer also says he thinks Ks are up because of how crazy the pitching is now. Higher velocity on breaking stuff especially. "Coaching hitters is evolving into a job less about teaching an athletic skill and more about studying the physics of hitting a ball and the anatomy behind a swing." "Next season, only six teams — the Braves, Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Giants and Blue Jays — will have a primary hitting coach who has been in the same role for more than two seasons." It's an interesting read. The Twins hitting coaches have been a frequent target of fan ire the last few years. I don't know enough about them to really speak on things, but found it interesting that the rest of the league is flipping through hitting coaches pretty frequently. Definitely a position that gets a lot of blame when things don't go well. "Can't fire the players" as they say.

How many pitchers make it through their entire professional career without getting TJ these days? I understand that there was concern when he signed. But the Dodgers clearly weren't babying him, or all that worried about things, if they let him make 32 starts his first year. He went 5 and a half years with no problems. Then his elbow, like most pitchers in this day and age, gave out. If a pitcher has no arm issues while throwing a full workload for 4 seasons, then the Twins acquire him and he has no problems with them for a year and a half, then has TJ it's entirely disingenuous, and revisionist history, to suggest he was a ticking time bomb. A major league pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is not a high risk player. Last year's top 10 fWAR pitchers: Aaron Nola- had TJ Carlos Rodon- had TJ Justin Verlander- had TJ Sandy Alcantara- no TJ Kevin Gausman- no TJ Shohei Ohtani- had TJ Max Fried- had TJ Shane Bieber- no TJ Corbin Burnes- no TJ Framber Valdez- no TJ 50% of the top 10 has had TJ in their careers. That's not including any other arm injuries. Just TJ. 50% of them. Every professional pitcher has a high risk of needing surgery down the line. A pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is absolutely not any higher risk than any other pitcher.

They can, but I don't think it happens often. I'd think the player would have his agent working for the extra time to see if there's a better deal available, or the same deal but the team would sign him immediately. Player probably wouldn't feel too comfortable waiting an extra month, or whatever, and not having that deal locked up. Lot can happen in a month that would lead the team in a different direction and leave the player hanging. But it's entirely possible the Twins know his price and are willing to pay it, but not until Spring Training when they open extra 40-man spots so are just sitting back and hoping he lasts that long. Which at this point seems relatively likely since there's not a lot of openings on rosters. May be the remaining FA's best bets to sit back and see how ST plays out and which team loses a guy to injury, or decides someone isn't good enough and are willing to pay the FA.

I'm wondering if they're crossing their fingers he doesn't sign before they can get Canterino and Paddack on the 60-day. I think there's a solid chance they hope to sign a reliever to fill at least 1 of those spots on the 40-man.

I don't know if this is meant to be a subtle shot at the FO or not, but the Twins traded Chase Petty (first round pick) for Sonny Gray last year.

I simply want to provide some perspective and information. I agree, he's had plenty of times where he had wonderful at bats and they were a delight to watch. I will miss him so much that I'm going to pay whatever ridiculous amount MLB is charging for MLB.tv this year so I can continue to watch him in Miami. But when there's actual information on things I find it important to provide it so people are aware of the actual facts of things. Not just in baseball, but everything. And I realize it's one of my more annoying qualities 😔 But provable facts need to be carried with more weight than opinions in our world again. And I enjoy engaging with you because you put real thought into your posts, and provide useful, and interesting, perspective. It's a sign of respect that I'm willing to annoy you more than others! 🙂

You're trying to make it sound like he was something crazy. There only 131 qualified hitters last year. He was .11 pitches over league average. That's nothing. The narrative that he was up there having crazy long at bats compared to everyone else is simply false. Miguel Sano has longer at bats than Arraez, are you going to miss those "long at-bats and battles?" I mean if seeing lots of pitches is what you want you should love Sano. Jake Cave was tied with Arraez. You going to miss his "long at-bats and battles?" Polanco, Correa, and Larnach are still here so you'll at least be able to enjoy their ABs since they all average more pitches per plate appearance than Arraez. The point is that we can miss Arraez, and wish he was here, without pretending he was someone he wasn't. Arraez was an absolute treat to watch hit. But he wasn't someone up there seeing significantly more pitches than anyone else.

Not going to lie, that is the first time I've ever seen the washington post stats page listed as a resource. I didn't even know that existed. Well done. But here's a real baseball resource. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-pitches-batting.shtml League average was 3.90. Arraez was at 4.01. So .11 pitches per plate appearance above league average. He was 41st in baseball for hitters with at least 502 plate appearances. 41st out of 131 is nice, but not something crazy. And when you lower the threshold he falls even further down the list. Not sure what your source is basing their numbers on to get him up to #17. Edited: I see you're on AL only. So that's why he's up higher.

4 years with no arm problems. That's all there is to know. 4 years. If 4 years isn't enough to not be concerned about something you'd never trade for a single major league pitcher. He had no IL stints for his arm in 4 seasons in LA. Trying to pretend he was a higher risk than the average pitcher is simply ignoring the reality of major league pitchers health. He started 32 games his first season there. That's not "handling him carefully to get the most out of him."

I don't think the Twins expect Taylor to be any sort of improvement on Kepler's offense. I think they hope Gallo gets back to being the guy he was in Texas. In which case he's a pretty significant improvement on Kepler. But I don't know that Kepler is getting traded. He certainly might, but I think Taylor is here as a bench player that allows Buxton some DH days without the defense taking a major hit. I wouldn't be surprised if Kepler is in RF in KC on opening day. I do agree that the offense needs to improve, though. I think that largely comes down to the kids, though. Need to get them healthy and producing. Team is doomed if a couple of Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, etc. don't step into the heart of the order and produce.

And teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Rays aren't actually all that good at it either. Dodgers 1st round picks from 2013 through 2019: 2013- Chris Anderson (never made bigs, out of baseball after 2017) 2014- Grant Holmes (never made bigs, still fighting but a non-prospect) 2015- Walker Buehler (massive hit- Twins don't have one of him) 2016- Gavin Lux (made bigs, hasn't excelled but has promise- sounds like some Twins guys) 2017- Jeren Kendall (never made bigs, still in AA), 2018- JT Ginn (not in bigs yet, but a decent prospect) 2019- Kody Hoese (not in bigs yet, struggled at AA last year). That's only 2 out of 7 guys who've debuted after having been drafted in 2019 or sooner. Buehler being an A+ pick, Lux being in the same boat as most of the Twins guys in that he's reached the bigs, but not really excelled. A little perspective goes a long ways when looking at draft picks. Astros picks 2013-2019: Mark Appel, Brady Aiken, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker (in the same draft as Bregman-they crushed that draft), Forrest Whitley, JB Bukauskas, Seth Beer, Korey Lee Rays picks 2013-2019: Nick Ciuffo, Ryne Stanek, Casey Gillaspie, Garrett Whitley, Josh Lowe, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, Greg Jones Drafting is hard. I'm not going to go through all 30 teams, but the Astros hit massively on 2 guys, but completely whiffed on 5. Rays didn't massively hit on any. First round MLB draft picks are an absolute crapshoot.

Kenta Maeda had no arm and injury concerns while he was with the Dodgers for 4 seasons. He made 32 starts his first year. 25 his second year before going to the pen for the end of the season and playoffs. 20 in his 3rd year before going to the pen again. 26 in his 4th year before the pen move. He may have had concerns before they signed him, but while he was with the Dodgers he had no issues at all. Trying to sell Maeda as some sort of higher than usual risk when the Twins acquired him is ignoring the realities of what he did in LA. He had 3 IL stints with the Dodgers. All of which he spent the minimum amount of time on the IL and were for leg injuries. That is by no means a guy with "arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers." That's just a regular MLB pitcher.

Strongly disagree that Celestino is the one on the bubble and Larnach will have to "power his way from St Paul to Minneapolis." Celestino has no role on this team with Taylor here. Larnach is on the roster as of now with Celestino finally getting his much needed time in AAA to work on his game.

I'd give Balazovic at least the first half of this season in the rotation in St Paul before making that move. I think Winder, Ober, and Canterino are already well on their way to bullpen roles due to their inability to stay healthy in the rotation. Would like to hold off as long as I could on Balazovic (and Ober, but 1 more injury for him and it'd be to the bullpen for me). At some point they need one of these kids to be able to throw 180 innings in a season without being hurt.

Kenta Maeda had no injury problems in LA. Not sure what the complaint is here. Graterol has never even struck out 9 per 9. Relievers that don't average at least 1 K per inning are not "the highest upside pitching prospects." Even missing an entire season to TJ Maeda has provided more value to the Twins than Graterol has to the Dodgers. By a significant margin.

I agree it's probably a fool's errand to be predicting the opening day roster at this point. Was just curious on the Larnach in St Paul idea. I also would love to see Julien go bonkers in Florida and at least make it a tough decision. I'd guess they'd still bring Larnach north and play the old service time game with Julien, but I hope he makes them at least think about it. I'm not writing this team in as WS contenders yet, but I'm much happier with how the 40-man looks today than I have been in January for a very long time. I don't want Taylor starting on an everyday basis, but he's a legit MLB bench player. The 40-man is getting to the point where there's real thought that has to be put into who gets DFA'd and they can't just throw a dart at it and ship out one of 20 guys without worrying. Kinda fun.

Who do you have as their 13 position players now if Larnach is in St Paul?