chpettit19

When the 2nd sentence of the article is "Terry Ryan, the former Twins general manager, used a 2-through-8 system to have his scouts evaluate players" you know it's just going to be about how the game was better back in the day, and these new young guys, and their "analytics," don't know what they're doing. While I'll be the first to say that analytics have made the game far less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, it's embarrassing to tie the scouting scale to Terry Ryan like that. News flash: the Twins current front office also uses the 20-80 scale! Terry Ryan wasn't some super genius who was doing something outrageous. The 20-80 scale for scouting players was used by Branch Rickey who died back in the 60s. It's been around for a little while. Using Terry Ryan's name there is simply an attempt to get the "old school" crowd riled up. As for Arraez and an extension, he's not the first player to turn one down and won't be the last. Good for him for not taking less than he feels he's worth. And good for the Twins for not paying more for a player than they think he's worth.

To be fair to Max, he's absolutely not a K machine. 14.8% last year, and 17.9% for his career. And as for their OF offense, even with the injuries to basically everyone, and playing all of September with an OF of AAA players, they were still 16th in OF offensive production according to wRC+ last year. I think you're selling the rest of the league short on how bad some of them truly are. You may not enjoy the "all or nothing approach" (and I think most fans agree, that's why MLB is changing rules), but it is actually pretty good at producing runs. Just not entertainment. There's a reason teams accept Ks for HRs. HRs are the best way to score.

Totally agree. Reports out of Florida are that Kirilloff is there and swinging freely. I'm really hoping that means this surgery worked and he can finally show his true self this season. Seems like a good kid and deserves a real shot at a career not ruined by his wrist.

I like the idea of Gurriel as the right handed bench bat/1B platoon. However, I wouldn't drop anyone not named Pagan from the 40-man for him. So I'd try to come to an agreement with him, but not sign him until Canterino and Paddack hit the 60 day. He's a champion and gamer. The team can use more of those.

Yeah, my first thought was Ober to the pen for a long relief role as well. 120 over 7 2/3 isn't the expectation of any pitcher in baseball, though. I mean literally none are doing that on a regular basis. To me the move would also be Ober to the pen for a long role and then being the first guy to take a spot start when needed. I don't expect to see a bunch of 4-5 inning starts, though. I think the expectation will be that Ryan, Gray, Lopez, and Mahle have the chance to go 6 or 7 innings early in the year. Maybe not their first start, but Gray and Ryan were doing 6 or 7 inning starts (despite what some fans would lead you to believe) before Gray got hurt and Ryan got covid. I'm guessing Maeda is on a little shorter of a leash, but he's probably still in line to get 5 or 6 inning starts early. Maybe Mahle is more 5 or 6 innings as well until he shows that shoulder is good. But I hope they still carry a long guy, and I'd use Ober. They started last year with Winder in that role before he got hurt and I hope they just put Ober there this year, and have Winder, SWR, Varland, etc. in AAA as options 7, 8, 9 and so on. I agree Ober isn't likely to stay healthy all year, and he's one of our 13 best pitchers to start the year so I'd like him in Minneapolis. But I think fans will be surprised by the length of starts they're asking from this rotation.

I was just passing along the info Hayes says the team is telling him. But trading their best pitcher in order to make a push doesn't sound smart to me. We'll see what happens, though. I was simply passing along the reports coming from Hayes.

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

If he ends 2023 in AA at the age of 20 he'll be a pretty exciting option to have around. But I totally agree and would've thought one of those young arms in their system would've been the target. I'd rather have taken a young arm over Salas and Chourio. But Salas feels like he could be a faster version of Lee, and I'm real excited about Lee. Never mad when they add high upside guys currently playing up the middle. Lots of cognitive dissonance feeling like they did well in an Arraez for Lopez deal, though. My brain likes it, but my heart doesn't!

I've been against an Arraez for Lopez deal as I didn't think that was a fair trade for the Twins straight up. I didn't have expectations that they could return Lopez, a top 100 global prospect, and another 17 year old flier. I hate losing Arraez and will have to get the MLB.tv package again so I can still watch his ABs. But this seems like a pretty good trade for the Twins. Even if I'm not a Lopez believer. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

It's interesting that you're "not really that concerned in what he did in his career year of '21" for Gallo, but you are very concerned about what Gordon did in his career year of 2022. Nick Gordon had 1.9 bWAR and 1.5 fWAR last year. Not a bad season at all. But let's compare that to all of Gallo's seasons before that "career year of '21." Before the absolute total system failure of 2022 for Joey Gallo, his lowest season ever (once he was a starter for more than 100 games) of bWAR was 1.6. And that was in a shortened 2020 season. Joey Gallo's absolute worst season (before 2022) was a 1.6 bWAR in 57 games. Nick Gordon's absolute best season was 1.9 in 136 games. Extra 79 games and Gordon beat him by .3 bWAR. As for fWAR, Gallo's worst year was again the 2020 season where he only played 57 games and had a 1 fWAR. In an extra 79 games Gordon was able to eclipse him by .5 fWAR. Shoot, in Gallo's complete disaster of a 2022 season Gordon only beat him by .9 fWAR in an extra 10 games. I'm not a huge fan of the Gallo signing because of his fit on this team. But pretending that Gallo doesn't have a ceiling dramatically higher than Gordon is ignoring a whole lot of data. And before you get into "Gordon is young and improving" kind of stuff just know that Gallo is slightly less than 2 years older than Gordon. I like Gordon, and think he's an amazing utility guy, but let's have a little perspective here. He's a 27 year old who's still trying to break through. We'll see how the league adjusts to him and his crazy aggressive approach at the plate.

It's the offseason and I'm choosing hope and positivity!

I may be the biggest Royce Lewis supporter not related to him, so take this as you will. I think every player is tradeable in the right deal, but you better be talking about an Alcantara type return if you're talking about trading Lewis. Legit ace pitcher in his mid-20s with 5 years of control left. Beyond that there's not many deals I'd be happy trading Lewis in. I think he's a star as soon as he steps back on the field (I was calling for him to start last year in the bigs so this isn't new for me) and will be as valuable to the Twins in 2024 as either Buxton or Correa.

Above .500 and within 5 games of the division. I actually thought about looking up what examples might be out there, but it felt like too much work so I didn't do it. Would be interested to see what examples there are, though.

Both? I will make that bet. 🤝

Good try, but on July 27th, 2018 (the day Escobar was traded) the Twins were 48-54 and 8 games back in the division and had a -12 run differential. Nobody here has suggested not trading Gray and/or Maeda from a below .500 team.

That's fair. I'm not super worried about that. There are good veteran catchers available every year. They could definitely use some more catching talent in the system, though.

So they didn't know Dyson was hurt before they traded for him, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. Maeda had no injury concerns in 4 seasons in LA, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks. I'd argue Mahle wasn't a "distressed asset" either. At least the price they paid for him didn't suggest they were buying low on a "distressed asset" at all. But I'll give you that one even if I don't buy the premise. That's 4 players (Mahle, Paddack, Donaldson, and Correa) in 6 seasons. Not sure I'd consider that a trend. Really it's just a handful of players that give fans something to complain about.

I don't disagree with the idea that it takes a few years to get a catcher ready, but the "that process should have been done 3 years ago" quote is interesting to me. 3 years ago was 2020. Shortened draft (they had 4 total picks) aside, why should the Twins have felt the need to take a catcher high in 2020? Or even 2019? Or 2021? They had just taken Jeffers in the 2nd round in 2018 (he made it to the majors in only 2 years for what it's worth). And they'd (Twins, not this FO) taken a HS catcher named Ben Rortvedt in the 2nd round in 2016. So in 2019 they had a 21 year old Rortvedt in AA and 22 year old Jeffers in AAA. In 2020 they had a 23 year old Jeffers in the majors and 22 year old Rortvedt hot on his heals. "That process should have been done 3 years ago" feels like some revisionist history based on their current situation, and you not liking Jeffers. 2 former 2nd round pick catchers both making steady, and quick for Jeffers, progress through the system 3 years ago would suggest not needing to go out of their way for a high pick catcher in 2019, 2020, or 2021. Especially when Garver was coming off a really good 2018, and silver slugger 2019 in the majors. Their catching situation was fantastic 3 years ago with a very bright looking future as well.

His ankles were definitely part of the move, along with him just not being a good SS. Yeah, it was PEDs in 2018. I like Polanco, and he does seem to be wearing down now, but he's also 29, and not 25 like Arraez. My point is simply that Arraez has publicly spoken about how bad his knees have gotten over the course of the last 2 seasons. That's not a good sign when you're that young.

They completely and fully agree with it. Is the argument that Houston doesn't use analytics? They're one of the leaders of the analytics charge. They've had one of the biggest analytics departments in baseball for a decade. They shift more than just about any team in baseball (2nd to the Dodgers last year). I mean "old school Dusty" shifted 82% of the time against left handed hitters last year. 82%! Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's on board with analytics. They went to the World Series in 2021 averaging less than 4 innings per start throughout the postseason. People see Dusty's name and just automatically think they don't use analytics. The Astros are one of the 2 or 3 most analytics driven teams in all of baseball.

To be fair to Maeda it's some really skewed data to look at just his half season before he had TJ, and the subsequent season he missed after. Even getting moved to the bullpen at the end of the year with the Dodgers he averaged 26 starts a year for LA. There's no reason to think he can't come back and throw a full 32 starts this year. Pitchers do it all the time. Ober, on the other hand, has really never stayed healthy.

This is pretty much where I'm at, too. Love the Lee pick, and expect great things out of him. Keep him at SS until he's sharing a field with someone better than him there (Lewis in AAA in July?). AA makes complete sense for a starting spot this year. I'm not a "step by step" guy with prospects so am not too concerned about him seeing AAA at all, but since there's a number of other young IF types ahead of him currently I don't know that I think he debuts this year. If he does it's either really good or really bad. Really good if he's simply mashing and is making it abundantly clear he's one of the best 13 hitters in the org. Really bad if everyone ahead of him is hurt or flopped so bad they had to go to him.

No on Lee, even though it's close (which makes sense considering they went 3 picks apart last year). I'd trade Kepler for him (don't think the Mets would take that 1 for 1, though). The other guys are interesting. Parada is in low A. That's a long ways away. I'd absolutely love a catcher like him in our system, but I don't know that I'd want to give up any of the other current MLBers for him. Just doesn't feel like a time to be building for the future at the expense of the present. 3 years of Vasquez and Jeffers should be solid and gives them a chance to add high end catching without trading guys now. Who says there isn't someone just as good as Parada available at pick 5 this summer? Interesting idea, though.

Jorge Polanco was suspended in 2018, not injured. He had never spent a day on the IL before 2022. He's not a guy you should point to of an injury risk. A guy not hitting the IL once until his 9th year is most certainly not someone "with bad legs."

A couple things with this chart. 1- You're looking at the wrong Lopez. Who you have is Jorge Lopez and we're talking about Pablo Lopez. 2- The 2020 stats render the "Avg" column completely useless if you're attempting to see how close to a "full season" (32ish starts) they get since it was literally impossible for any of them to make 32 starts in a season of only 60 games. So if you want to see how many starts they tend to get in a full year (since 2020 apparently) the numbers are: Gray: 25 Maeda: 11 Ober: 16 Mahle: 28 Ryan: 25 Lopez (Pablo, not Jorge): 26