chpettit19

I'm not against going year to year with Arraez. I don't know that pre/mid-arbitration extensions that don't really go into much FA years are things I'd be concerned about trading shortly after signing. Arraez is "under contract" for another 3 years with the Twins whether they sign him to anything or not due to the arbitration process. I don't see that there's a great difference in him being in arb or him having a 4 year deal. Unless he's taking what's perceived to be a very team friendly deal. But also don't think its crazy to not want to trade someone shortly after any extension. That's a more than fair stance. Overall, I don't see any reason to trade Arraez right now. The Twins have plenty of names for 2B, but only 1 of them is currently better than Arraez and only Polanco and Arraez are proven ML hitters. I'm not a fan of trading established guys, especially with 3 years of control left, because you have prospects you hope can be as good as them. Until Miranda, et al prove they can hit ML pitching the Twins don't have depth at 2B. They have Polanco and Arraez. With injuries and rest days that combination is a minimum need, not surplus. I'm ok trading Arraez, or anyone, for the right return. The idea that we should be shopping Arraez because we have "plenty of middle infielders" doesn't make any sense to me.

Plenty of middle infielders? Who? At this point we have an All Star 2B and no starting SS. We have Gordon who can play 2B and SS in a pinch. We have Arraez who can play 2B, but not SS. That covers the extent of ML talent for the middle infield. 2 starting caliber 2Bs and a utility guy who can play 2B isn't what I'd consider "plenty" of middle infielders.

Does anybody know what his knee problems actually are? That'd be a vital piece of information to me if I'm running the Twins. Does he have a chronic, degenerative situation or has he just been pushing through an injury that could be completely healed and he'd be good moving forward with no more risk than the average player? I feel like I heard it was a degenerative thing, but can't remember for sure. If it's a chronic, degenerative thing I have my medical people tell me how many good years he likely has and extend him if they're relatively sure he can play out that next 4 or 5 years without a real plummet. Then am open to trades if that makes sense down the road. Arraez won't demand a huge salary. There's very little relative risk to extending him beyond his knee problems. Even if you're not buying out many FA years you can extend him for 4 or 5 years even and just lock in expenses. It's helpful to know where your payroll is without worrying about arbitration. Then you can move him later if it makes sense. The talk of depth and him not having a spot on the field/in the lineup is premature to me. If all the guys we're hoping on reach their potential then move guys at that point. Don't be afraid of extending a proven ML player because you might have some prospects ready in the future. Hoard all the talent you can and move guys once you have too many proven guys for ABs. Especially the way the Twins rotate guys. It's not a "starting 9 and 4 bench guys" situation in MN anymore. It's more like a starting 5 and 8 rotation guys now.

There's a lot of names, but that list is not impressive to me. Garver- Can't stay healthy and is on the wrong side of 30 already playing the most demanding position physically. Stud when he's healthy, though. Jeffers- Are we sure he can hit? Nobody can claim he's proved it yet. Rortvedt- Are we sure he can hit above .180 even? Kirilloff- Are we sure he'll suddenly get over his almost yearly wrist injuries? Very likely stud if he can stay healthy. Sano- Is most likely gone after this year. Rooker- We know he can't field, are we sure he can hit? Certainly hasn't proved he can hit. Larnach- Won't kill you in the field like Rooker, but isn't very good. We sure he's the first month Larnach and not the last 3 months Larnach? Polanco- Stud. Arraez- Hits/OB machine we know isn't above average at 3 positions, but isn't embarassing. Gordon- Brings much needed speed and athleticism. Can he hit? Certainly not an everyday guy. Miranda- We sure his 1 year sample is the real deal or the rest of his career when he wasn't even good enough to get picked in the rule 5? I have faith, but there's been better prospects who have failed. Donaldson- Not getting any younger. Will spend more and more time at DH for next 2 years if he doesn't get traded before then. Palacios- Why do we think he's a major leaguer? If that's what anyone thinks he'll be taken in the rule 5 and won't be here anyways. Celestino- Looks like a very good option as future 4th OFer. Cave- Really? Cave's part of the reason we can afford to move Arraez? He's not even on the 40-man and no major league team claimed him. Buxton- Can't stay healthy, but is a stud when he is healthy. Kepler- Big time defender, some time hitter. I don't see the depth here. Arraez is a proven ML hitter. He's 1 of 6 or 7 on your list. That's not even a full starting lineup! I love prospects and have high hopes for many of the young guys we have, but we need to quit acting like Jeffers, Rortvedt, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Miranda, and Celestino are any sort of sure things. Kirilloff looks every part the future star, but wrist injuries are killers for hitters. The rest of them have had almost no major league success at all let alone sustained success. So yes, we have a lot of names. But, no, we don't have great depth.

Teams know him. There's no secrets to a player who's been in the league for 2 years. They have his spray chart, exit velos, and every tendency you can think of plus 20 you can't. And he still gets hits. The OP has his spray chart. I'm confused as to how someone can look at that chart and say good defenses can limit his hits. He literally has hits from line to line. And lots of them. Teams have been playing their outfield in and infield back on him his entire career and he still finds the holes. I won't be upset if they get a good return (people mention one of the young Marlins pitchers as a possible return and I'd be good with that) on a trade for Arraez, but suggesting he's suddenly going to stop hitting because defenses will "get to know him" isn't based on the reality of the situation. The only thing likely to stop Arraez from hitting in the next handful of years is his knees. And that may be reason enough to trade him now, but you don't get figured out and stopped by defensive positioning when you have a spray chart like his.

Precisely. You were much more concise in your statement than I was, but that's exactly where I'm at. Have lots of hope, and a bunch of faith, in these young guys succeeding, but lets see it before we proclaim a hitter of Arraez's caliber is simply surplus.

I don't see the depth so many people see and agree trading Arraez isn't a necessity and shouldn't be done simply because there's a "surplus." As the OP states injuries will happen. They do every year for every team. Going into a season with your starting 9 and saying everyone beyond that is surplus doesn't make sense to me. And as of today Arraez is in the opening day starting 9 without a question. Who is starting in LF for this team come opening day? It's not going to be Larnach, he's starting in AAA unless there's injuries in ST. Are they still ok with Kirilloff in the OF with Sano at 1B most of the time? I think they'd prefer Kirilloff at 1B where the defense is much better, but in order to get JD DH ABs they'll need to be willing to play Kirilloff in the OF still. I'd guess Kirilloff and Arraez are the primary LFers as of today. Did Miranda have an incredible season last year? Yes. In the minors. I'm excited to see what he can bring to the Twins, but I'm not building my team assuming he's going to be as good as Arraez next year, or ever. I'm a "prospect lover" and want the Twins to build through the system, but that doesn't mean you open holes in the lineup for prospects before they've shown they can do things. We traded Hicks and Span to clear a place for Buxton and he was awful for years to start. JD has 2 years left. He's not exactly a long-term solution. What happens if Miranda had a 1 year blip season at AA and AAA and isn't seamlessly stepping in at 3B for the next 6 or 7 years? We've traded Arraez and now have no 3B. Sano is likely gone after this year. Kirilloff moves to 1B fulltime. Kirilloff has wrist issues. Are they done or is he cursed to a career of wrist problems and never becomes the All Star he's capable of being? Who's DHing after Sano leaves? I don't see surplus anywhere in the Twins organization. People pushed and pushed for OFer trades before last year because of the "surplus" of OFers in the system. Now the Twins have Buxton and Kepler and ??????. Would people prefer Rooker in LF over Arraez? I just don't see this surplus. The Twins have a really nice starting 8 (need a SS), but beyond that they have nothing but question marks and unproven players. If you get a great deal for a young, ML starter with years of control left by all means trade Arraez. But don't be shopping him, or anyone, at this point. The offense is good, but certainly not overly deep.

I think the 4th option not listed here is my favorite option...hope he hits his usual hot streak as temps start to rise and if the team isn't in contention trade him to one of many teams who would love to have a hot hitting Sano for their playoff push. If he comes in lighter and better and has a great season I could be open to keeping him on his option, but I don't think extending him would make much sense. I'd also be good with not exercising his option and just letting him walk and spending that 14 mil elsewhere. Sano is a good hitter. His numbers are basically always above average. His problem is that he's incredible streaky. I don't think 14 mil would be outrageous for him next year. If he produces 2 WAR he's earned that amount. I definitely don't trade him before the season, but everything is on the table once things get rolling.

The only risk I see with the Buxton deal is that the Pohlads make the FO treat the incentives as the base and they lower total payroll to ensure if he hits his incentives they never go over their payroll/revenue predictions. Other than that I agree with those saying he's no more at risk to a career ending injury than any other player. Certainly seems to find ways to make his way to the IL a couple times a year, but he always comes back. And he's shown he'll adjust to attempt to lower his injury risk. And the comparison to Hunter is ok, but not great. Hunter moved to the corner cuz he couldn't run anymore. But he was never a burner to start. Buxton has Hunter's reads, but an extra gear of speed. Even if Buxton loses 5 steps he's still got those reads and he's then a Hunter, or Cain, type CFer who's still very good, but not "best defender in the game" good. This deal was perfect.

I guess my question to all of this is would people be happy, and say the FO was successful, if they come out of the lockout and sign Pineda and Duffy? Those are two mid-tier pitchers still available. Is the complaint simply that they didn't do this before the lockout? If 2 mid-tier arms is all people are wanting I don't get why I've read hundreds of "fire Falvine!" or "the FO failed!" or similar posts over the last month. 2 mid-tier arms are easily found still. Is this just a "they didn't do it fast enough" complaint?

I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see both Canterino and Winder make multiple trips back and forth between the big club and the minors this year. I think there's a real strong chance the Twins use a number of rookies as piggy-back starters throughout the year to both limit their innings and service time (who knows what the service time rules will be in the new CBA, though). I think they shuttle a number of them back and forth until some of them (hopefully) start to establish themselves and can claim a few more innings. 40-man management will be really interesting to watch this year.

There's always arms available if you're willing to pay. But to me this all comes down to the prospects developing. If they don't develop any arms in 22 then the situation is the same in 23 and Montas still isn't enough to help anything (I don't think failed development in 22 would lead the FO to suddenly start spending on FA arms). I think they need to take 22 and see what arms develop and are legit ML talents. Don't risk trading away the 1 or 2 guys who turn out and being stuck with 1 veteran guy on a 1 year deal. If they can't develop pitching they're screwed no matter what. I say keep the kids and see what you have in them and fill in around that for 23.

The opposite side of that is the Twins did trade Gil and Ynoa and are absolutely crushed for it on these boards daily. The difference now is the Twins have a 21st century development program now. It all comes down to being able to develop their own arms. Previous regime and their system couldn't do it. If this regime can't do it either none of it matters as they couldn't sustain success trading for guys with 1 or 2 years of control and then having to pay everyone. I think we're at the point where we just need to see if their new development plans work. Only way to do that is keep their prospects, especially their best ones, and see if they're any good.

Right next to yours in the land of nowhere, I guess. Name 5 pro-athletes who had their careers ended in the last 5 years from ACL tears. I'm sorry I don't care about surgical techniques from 1975 that included sewing the ACL back together and not complete replacements that they do now. A simple google search will lead you to hundreds of Dr's and medical organization's websites that speak about how an ACL tear is no longer a career ending injury. I appreciate the work that went into digging that paper up, but it's not data that supports an argument against my statement that ACL tears are no longer career enders because we've advanced in science and technology. Sorry.

Wes Johnson has been here 3 seasons. His staffs ranked 4th, 3rd, and 24th (according to the OP). What does "we had a weak rotation that succeeded because of a short season" even mean? They pitched better than all but 2 staffs, but it was only because they were given the bonus of pitching a short season unlike every other team? Your complaint seems to be they don't have big name, big money guys so they can't be good. But the stats show they've been good for more than they haven't since Wes arrived. And had been improving since the day Falvey took over until last year completely fell apart. Can we please stop with these false narratives of the Twins having been carried by homeruns and the offense while the pitching staff was awful? The pitching staff has more than held their own until last year. Definitely rag on the FO and coaching and pitchers for 2021. They deserve it. Utter failure of a season. But everybody needs to quit changing history to fit their narratives. The Twins had the 2nd most pitching WAR in all of baseball in 2019 and 2020 combined. If that doesn't earn them the title of "strong rotation" I don't know what will. Have to be first or the rotation isn't strong? Weird logic there.

That study looks at data going back to 1975. If you don't think the "return to sport" numbers have improved in 50 years I don't know what to tell you. So not only are there college level players who may have been seniors, but it's pulling from data so old as to be almost completely useless, plus older pro players who may have been at the end of their careers anyways. That analysis does nothing for me, sorry.

I honestly have no idea. I don't know that I'd be very surprised if the budget ends up being 130 or if it ends up being 100. I think the Ray rumors suggest they're still looking/willing to spend. Not sure if I believe they were caught off guard by the quick signings before the lockout or if I think they weren't planning to spend. I think either option is just as likely as the other. Neither makes me happy, though.

I'm all for this idea. I've said it on these boards too much already, but Story has been my #1 target all along. All Stars at SS, 2B, and CF is a real good place to start. I'd keep Kepler and put Bryant (or Conforto to balance the lefty righty situation a little more) in LF to start with Arraez keeping his "utility" man role as we know JD will need days off at 3B and I don't trust Sano to not have a month stretch where he's basically unplayable. Bryant-Buxton-Kepler, JD-Story-Polanco-Kirilloff is a really good defense and would help the young arms acclimate. The idea of the Twins building a "real" major league pitching staff for 2022 at this point seems far too unrealistic to me. With Donaldson and Sano coming off the books soon I love the idea of locking in this sort of offense for the next 4+ years and not having future offseasons where it's SP AND SS AND LF that need to be addressed. Get 1 "side of the ball" squared away so really it's just building the pitching staff (hopefully the pipeline plays a huge role there) you have to worry about moving forward for the next handful of years. I'm all in on this idea.

They have 4 SPs in the Fangraphs Top 100...

For what it's worth they have 4 in the Fangraphs top 100. Balazovic (44), Duran (81), SWR (85) and Canterino (97).

To be fair that CBS list is a fantasy baseball list. Not sure that's something anyone should really care about when it comes to the Twins winning games. I agree it'd be nicer to see more Twins arms appear on prospect lists, though. But the general thought around Twins Territory is that Jose Miranda is a vital, big-time prospect now and you'll notice he isn't on any of those lists. Fangraphs has Balazovic (44), Duran (81), SWR (85), and Canterino (97) in their top 100. I think that's why it's so important for teams to have a ton of pitching prospects. I'd rather have 10 dudes with 45+ future value scouting reports than 2 dudes with 55+ future value scouting reports and nobody else above a 40. I mean Gore went from the top pitching prospect in the game to not being able to throw a strike. Quantity is a huge part of pitching development. Not predicting the Twins have a bunch of aces waiting in the wings, but I like how they're setup right now.

There is a 60 day IL for the minors. The Twins will option Enlow to the minors in spring training and place him on the 60 day IL. It will cost them an option year, but not ML service time.

That's an interesting site. Do they have similar analysis for more than the 2020 season?

Torn ACLs don't really end careers in the modern days of medicine, they're pretty routine at this point. He's healed from that surgery and was on the field playing fake games in FL before the end of the season. My point isn't that they should rush him, it's that him not having played in 2 years doesn't mean what you suggested it means (that he won't get more than a cup of coffee was your prediction). I mean you said "any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success." I disagree. I think MLB playing time for Lewis should be expected in 2022. The reason for getting him to the majors is he'll be 23 next year and if he's going to be their SS of the future getting his licks in in 2022 instead of 2023 or later makes a ton of sense. I think the general consensus is that 2022 won't be a legit year of contention for the Twins (unless every coin flip comes up heads), but I haven't seen many people who don't think 2023 should be. If you're trying to really contend in 2023 you better know darn well who your starting SS is and not still be hoping and crossing your fingers for Royce Lewis to be it because you didn't play him in the majors in 2022 when you were breaking in the rest of your young players. Now if they sign Story or something crazy like that it changes things. But if 2022 is your "break in the young guys" season Lewis should absolutely be involved in that for far more than a September callup unless he is looking like he's not the same player at which point he's not your future SS anyways and none of this matters.

I was referring to the zips projections having Polanco at SS, not the Twins. I don't think the Twins have any intention of playing him there, but Doctor Gast was comparing Semien and Polanco and the positions they're listed at so I was just explaining that zips has him at SS due to the timing of things and there not being another SS on the roster.