chpettit19

What's the real question here? The Twins got decimated by injuries last year. It was an outlier of a season, The combination of your comments is basically "they were hurt more than the average team last year, and they're hoping that isn't the case this year." Which is certainly true. What's the bigger point, though? There were 78 pitchers who made 26 or more starts in the majors last year. 133 position players who played 130 or more games last year. That's an average of 2.6 pitchers, and 4.4 position players per team that hit those marks. Career norm performances for their pitchers and position players mean they'll have more than 3 pitchers, and more than 5 position players, hit those 26 start, or 130 games played, marks. So they haven't really invested any more than a normal team in the expectation of team health. There was no way they could go into this season without a hope for better team health. Even if they turned over the entire 40 man roster, the hope would still have been that they don't suffer so many injuries this year. Polanco hit the IL for the first time in 9 major league seasons last year. Sure, they're "investing in health resurgence" from him, but no more than any other team is investing in a return to health for any player who got hurt last year. They're not full of players with huge health question marks outside of Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach. Who are they banking on being drastically healthier? Mahle started 23 games last year. 3 more starts and he's at the 26 start mark. Sonny Gray started 24, Joe Ryan 27, Pablo Lopez 32. So their starting pitching "health resurgence investment" is 2 starts from Gray, or 3 starts from Mahle, above the league norm. That's not too crazy. Miranda, Correa, and Gordon beat the 130 game mark last year. Polanco had done it every year of his career before last year (and in 2018, but that was a suspension not injury). Christian Vazquez did it in 19, was on pace for it in 20, did it in 21, and played 119 last year. Kyle Farmer has done it each of the last 2 years. Gallo was at 126 last year because he sucked, not because he was hurt. So that's 7 position players that don't need any real resurgence to break the 130 game played mark. Already above the league norm there. Really it's just Buxton, Kirilloff, and Larnach that are real injury concerns. I'd argue the bigger "resurgence investment" is in performance, not health. They've already planned for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach to not be on the opening day roster. Doesn't sound like they're investing in either of them really.

This is a bit of a challenge because I don't know how you want to define "peak performance" for the rookies/youngsters on the 40-man. Likely peak vs 100th percentile peak would be very different. But I'm going to go with "likely peak," and give my lineup based on that. Buxton- CF Polanco- 2B Correa- SS Kirilloff- 1B Miranda- 3B Larnach- DH Gallo- LF Vazquez- C Kepler- RF When Lewis comes back: Buxton- CF Polanco- 2B Correa- SS Kirilloff- 1B Lewis- RF Larnach- DH Miranda- 3B Gallo- LF Vazquez- C

Larnach is starting in LF tomorrow, and Kirilloff has been taking live BP with no pain. Neither of those guys are hurt. Miranda is interesting, but if he can play 1B and DH it's all good. Sounds like Buxton and Polanco are both fine. Just taking ST slow. Which doesn't concern me for veterans. Pagan still being Pagan is a problem I have no hope for a cure. Henriquez isn't all that high on the pitching pecking order, but I hope he's not looking at a missed year. If he is, I hope they do the surgery sooner than later so he can be back for most of next year. Martin is a bummer. Hopefully if it's TJ for him he's at least back DHing before the end of the year. Gordon plays the position with the most depth on the team. If he misses opening day it just means Larnach is there instead. Hope he gets back in a week or 2, but it's not a major loss if he's on the IL to start the year. I agree you don't win on paper, but I don't see any real questions about the 26 man roster at this point.

The Luis Castillo trade, and extension, are probably the best comps. And Burnes is better, and younger, so he'd actually demand a little more. The Reds got Marte (top 15 global prospect at the time), and Arroyo (2nd round pick in 2021) as major position player prospects. They got Levi Stoudt (top 5 system prospect), and Andrew Moore as pitching prospects. That's 3 top 5 system prospects, 2 of which are top 50 global prospects right now. A pitcher 1 year younger, and nowhere near as good, as Burnes with massive injury concerns (Ober), a 25 year old DH with massive contact and K concerns (Wallner), and a 23 year old utility player prospect with tanking value (Martin) isn't enough to even get the Brewers to call you back. In fact they probably don't even answer your next 15 phone calls if that's your starting offer. Any offer that didn't include Lee or Lewis would get an immediate hang-up. And, honestly, it'd probably take both Lee and Lewis to get anything done. The Twins likely don't have the prospect capital to pull a trade for Burnes unless you're including both Lee and Lewis, or ERod comes out hot and then it's likely 2 of those 3 plus 2 more prospects, 1 of which being top 10 in the system, required. Castillo signed a 5 year, $108 million extension with Seattle after the trade. That's the floor for Burnes. Again, he's younger and better, so he'd likely demand even more than that. Especially knowing he went to arbitration in an attempt to up the amount of money he was getting, and the amount players around the league make. He's going to demand big money, and likely years. If you're talking just a short 2 or 3 year deal the comp is Verlander/Scherzer. And they got $86 million for 2 years (Verlander) and $130 million for 3 years (Scherzer).

Baseball Savant had Alcala up to 95.3 yesterday. He threw mostly changes and sliders. His pitch selection looks like a guy working on his off-speed stuff yesterday. 10 out of 16 pitches were off-speed. The 6 likely fastballs look like they may even include 2 or 3 changeups that he didn't execute well and had low 90s velo. Spin rates match his change, but they're marked as 4-seamers likely because the movement just wasn't there, and the velo was higher than his normal change.

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Best prize there is!

If it makes you feel better, the Twins were 9th in baseball in scoring runners from 3B with less than 2 outs. 52.6%. League average was 50.9%. Their bigger problem was getting guys to 3B with less than 2 outs. They had that 287 times. League average was 299. They scored 151 runners from 3B with less than 2 outs, which was only 1 below the league average of 152. So when it came to driving those runs in they were pretty good at it, actually, but they just didn't get enough guys into that situation. The Dodgers only scored those guys at a 49.2% clip, but scored 185 runners that way because they had so many more (376) in the situation. I agree a healthy Kirilloff performing the way it looks like he would when healthy is the ideal candidate. Miranda was one of their best bats with runners in scoring position last year so I'd be happy with him in the 5 spot behind Kirilloff. In a perfect world, where everyone is healthy, and producing close to their expected level, my lineup vs righties would be: Buxton CF Polanco 2B Correa SS Kirilloff 1B Miranda 3B Larnach DH Gallo LF Vazquez C Kepler RF Lineup vs lefties: Buxton DH Solano 1B Correa SS Farmer 2B Miranda 3B Gallo LF Jeffers C Kepler RF Taylor CF

No, it's not a big difference at all. No team sees a big difference in the difficulty of their schedules with the new format. It really all balances out.

This chat got me curious about the Twins schedule differences. This is all based on last year's record. Games against teams with 90+ wins: Last year 50 This year 51 Games against teams between 80-90 wins: Last year 42 This year 38 Games against teams between 70-80 wins: Last year 16 This year 19 Games against teams between 60-70 wins: Last year 54 This year 51 Games against teams with fewer than 60 wins: Last year 0 This year 3 Games against teams .500 or better: Last year 92 This year 89 So their schedule last year actually would've been easier under this format. That doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot since this is a totally new year, but I think it goes to the idea of the schedule change not automatically making the Twins schedule harder simply because they play in the AL Central. Edit to add: I probably should've said "old format vs new format" instead of "last year vs this year"

I think the schedule change is overstated. They're losing 6 games each against the Tigers and Royals. But they're getting to play 3 each against the Nationals, Pirates, and Reds. All of those teams finished worse than the Tigers and Royals last year, and the Twins didn't play. So they've made up 9 of the 12 games right there. It's not a straight swap of bad teams for good teams. They play the bad teams in their division less, but get to play the bad teams in other divisions more. The difference in schedule difficulty for the teams hit the hardest is like .008%. That's 1 win.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! I don't get a prize for being the biggest know it all with the most opinions on things?! @Brock Beauchamp don't you know how the internet works?! 😄

It can be true that the majority of baseball doesn't have a great recent track record with homegrown starters.

That's some solid pop, but man the word "elite" gets thrown around way too willy nilly these days.

Yes, boss.

Why? The argument was made that he only played 3B. He didn't. I don't know why there's a need to look at it any other way. It's nothing major. But the idea that he played his entire career at 1 position, and was never moved for any reason, is factually wrong.

Correa was going to move to 3B with the Mets, for what it's worth. I'm not sure what the Sano point is. He was a terrible defender everywhere they put him. They were just trying to hide him in places. That's totally fine. Reasonable people are allowed to disagree 🙂

Nobody called him a utility player. That's kind of my point. You said "can you imagine Eddie Mathews playing any place than 3B?" And he did play places other than 3B. An entire season's worth of games at other positions. He's not an example of someone who filled a position "from beginning to end." Because the vast majority of players don't just get drafted at 1 position and stay there their entire career. Unless they're already at, or near, the bottom of the defensive ladder. That's kind of my point here. Players not playing every career game at 1 position doesn't make them "positionless" or "utility players." It makes them baseball players. The Twins aren't trying to make everyone utility players. Players playing a little bit in other places is normal baseball that's been taking place for decades. It's why I think it's a topic that's discussed too much. People seem to think it's a new phenomenon. It isn't. This isn't even directed at you, really, but you made it easier to prove the point with the Mathews example. The title of this article is click-bait, and misleading. I mean it doesn't even really match the narrative of the article. Then the article goes on to try to make it sound like the Twins are bouncing guys all over instead of just developing them at 1 position. It fails to explain that this is what the vast majority of players go through. The Twins aren't trying to create positionless, or utility, players. They're developing players the same way every other team does.

Do you think the Cards should move Jordan Walker to RF? He's a better prospect than anything in the Twins system and the Cards are moving him from 3B to RF. Gunnar Henderson is maybe the best prospect in baseball and the Orioles moved him from SS to 3B when he got to the bigs. And now may move him back to SS. Corbin Carroll could also make an argument that he's the best prospect in baseball, and could win GGs in CF, but he moved to LF when he got promoted. Manny Machado came up as a SS. Trea Turner came up as a SS, moved to CF, moved to 2B, then moved back to SS. Fernando Tatis Jr came up as a SS and is now moving to RF. Juan Soto has bounced back and forth between LF and RF. Kyle Schwarber came up as a C. That's all just off the top of my head. This is just how promotions and roster construction works. Lewis and Lee may have had shots at being big league SSs, but now the Twins have a platinum glove winner there. Same reason Walker is moving to RF. That Arenado guy in St Louis is pretty good at 3B. I think the moving around of players is too big of a discussion point in general. It's incredibly normal. And fielding a grounder at 3B isn't that much different than fielding them at SS or 2B or 1B. There's nuances to playing positions, but if you can play SS, you can play 3B. The general idea is you keep guys as high on the defensive ladder as possible, for as long as possible. It's why Martin has been getting reps at SS when almost nobody expects him to stay there. Give him a chance to show what he can do at the top of the ladder because even if he has to slide down a few spots in the bigs he'll have been working on the skills it takes to play those other spots well. It's easier to move from the IF to the OF since being truly good at fielding grounders takes more skill than getting to and catching fly balls. Some guys simply can't judge fly balls well enough, but most elite athletes can. So teams keep guys on the dirt as long as they can (like Walker for the Cardinals) before moving them if they're blocked in the majors. Lee will continue to get time at SS because it's the highest spot he has a chance to play on the ladder. Once his bat is ready the Twins will move him to 3B or 2B if that's what's needed based on the roster. Teams aren't trying to create utility players, they're trying to keep guys as high on the ladder as they can for as long as they can. Or they're trying to find a spot that the guy could succeed (Julien being the example there). They move the guy around some early in their careers to see what they look like in different spots, and give them an idea of the highest spot on the ladder they could succeed. Then they give them time to work at 1 position (Julien at 2B last year). Then they reassess and make adjustments. It's not all about how their bodies develop. And it's not done on a whim. The guys making these decisions are incredibly good at scouting players and seeing things that give them hope, or doubts, about a player's ability to stick at certain positions.

Eddie Mathews played 52 games in LF, and 112 games at 1B in the majors, FYI.

Have to love that Martin flow! I don't love him on the dirt, though. Go let him roam free in the pastures!

I'm a little confused by the idea of using Polanco as a DH simply because he's a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter doesn't mean he hits lefties and righties equally well. He's got a career OPS of .720 vs lefties, but an OPS of .806 vs righties. Last year he was .832 against righties and .602 vs lefties. He may be a switch hitter, but he's far better against righties. He's got real splits just like some non-switch hitters. It's why I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa at the top of the order. Get him between 2 righties so he faces all the righty bullpen arms.

Stearns didn't go from Cleveland to Milwaukee. He went from Cleveland to Houston to Milwaukee. But they were in Cleveland together over a decade (Stearns left in 2011) ago if that's something anyone wants to put any weight into. Not sure what it has to do with anything, though.

I didn't know whether to like, love, sad, or haha at this so I didn't give you any reaction. But know that you got all of those responses out of me.

The example I'll always remember of teams trading away major league players for prospects while in their own pennant drive was the 2016 Astros. They were in second place in the West with a 56-49 record on August first. They traded Josh Fields from their pen to the Dodgers who were also in 2nd in their respective Western division at the time, and were 59-46. The Astros got 19 year old Yordan Alvarez in return.