chpettit19

Are you suggesting Berrios knew the Twins were going to go from letting him throw 200 innings a year to not letting him do what they'd let him do his whole career this year and that's why he didn't want to sign here? I don't know if it was all about money, but I'd be willing to bet the Twins didn't tell him they were going to cut 50 innings off his season inning totals. Rumblings from Gray? You mean that Twitter clip where he complained about not going deeper in games? The one where when he was asked about it later he said he was mad at himself for not being better and not at the team? Look, I haven't enjoyed the pitching strategy this year, and think it played a huge role in ruining the season. But before this season they'd never done anything like this so the suggestion that this particular plan has played a role in FA pitchers not coming here is simply false. They've never done it before so how could it play a role in pitchers not coming here?

Again, I'm not talking about going into the 2021 season, I'm talking about the day they traded Berrios. I don't know how more plainly to state that. I mean I literally gave you their record on the day they traded him. At that point in the season did you think they should be acting as if they were going to win the 2021 World Series? Because that's the argument you're making when you compare that trade to not trading Judge this year. Did you notice that everyone the Twins traded for since 2021, outside of Fulmer, are also under control for 2023? Correa fell in their lap and allowed them to appease fans by spending to their budget, and gave them a season to sell him on the Twins organization and perhaps sign him long-term. They traded Rogers for a starter. Drastically underestimated the injury risk of that starter, but they were attempting to fill a bigger need by adding a guy who would throw 150+ innings for a guy who would throw half that. And they apparently think Pagan is actually good, which is clearly a miss on their part. Not finding any difficult questions to answer here.

I'm not telling anyone not to push back on the front office or suggesting changes aren't needed. I'm pointing out that the 4 players/moves that you and h2o are/were comparing have far more context than either of you are willing to acknowledge. When the Twins traded Jose Berrios were they in legitimate contention for the 2021 World Series title? Not asking if they went into the season trying to contend, but on the day he was traded did they have a legitimate chance of winning the 2021 World series? They were 43-61 and in last place in the central. Trying to compare that to not trading Aaron Judge in a season where he's going to win the MVP when the Yankees were 70-35 at the deadline and 11 games up in their division is disingenuous. Those are not comparable situations. Then, forecasting ahead, did it look like they had a reasonable chance to fill their many, many roster holes for 2022 and have a legitimate chance at contending for the 2022 World Series? What are the other moves beyond those 2 that create this pattern and philosophy of moves? Trading away vets you aren't going to be able to afford to resign during seasons when you aren't a good team isn't unique to the Twins, or a bad strategy. It's actually pretty global, especially amongst teams that can't/won't spend $200+ million on payroll. But back on July 25th, 2016, when the Yankees were 51-48 and in 4th place in their division, they traded away Aroldis Chapman. Why would they do that when winning organizations are willing to hold onto their players because it gives them a chance to win the World Series? Or is it that the strategy of trading players in a season you're not competing is actually the right strategy? I'm pushing back on you 2 because I believe you've failed in your attempt to unpack the philosophy and are ignoring all context in trying to compare things so they fit your narrative. Provide actually comparable situations and I won't push back. These are simply bad comparisons you 2 are attempting to make.

What would you like to bet that Aaron Judge wins the MVP award in 2022? I'll take any bet you want. You suggested it makes sense to compare the Yankees not trading Aaron Judge in the middle of a division winning season while he's literally playing like the MVP and very well might win the triple crown in the AL and the Twins trading Berrios during a completely and totally lost season with another one on the horizon that was likely also going to be a massive struggle with or without him. It's a bad analogy.

Were the Twins competing for World Series titles last year or this year? If they had both Berrios and Rogers this year would they be at 100 wins? Did the Twins trade away guys in 2019 or 2020 when they were winning? It's a bad comparison in basically everyway, and I pointed out multiple of the reasons it's a bad comparison in that post. The context of those 4 player's situations is completely ignored in that post. And now you're actively ignoring the same context. The Twins were the last place team in the worst division in baseball last year. Ignoring that and pretending they should've held onto Berrios because that's what "winning organizations" do feels quite disingenuous to me.

"The plan" was taken too far this year with their refusal to change it as the season progressed, but linking this year's plan to FA pitchers not coming here is inaccurate. Berrios was amongst the league leaders in innings pitched the whole time he was with the Twins. He was on pace for over 200 innings last year before he was traded. Typically the Twins, and Rocco, haven't been this extreme about pulling starters. I don't know what they were doing this year, but it was outside the norm, even for them. But you can't claim "the plan" is why FAs never come here when this is the first year they've run so aggressively with "the plan."

Ignoring some context here, aren't we? The Braves weren't in the middle of a last place season when they didn't trade Freeman. And when they weren't able to bring him back they instead traded multiple top prospects to pay Matt Olsen instead. Is that the route you'd like the Twins to take instead? Don't trade Berrios during a lost season then let him walk and trade Royce Lewis for a lesser version of Berrios? Not exactly a strategy I'd say would be likely to turn out well for the Twins. Hmmmmm And comparing the Yankees to the Twins when it comes to trading guys they can't afford is just completely and utterly disingenuous. The Twins offered Berrios what they thought he was worth. He said no and they knew they couldn't afford him so they traded him. The Yankees know they can afford Judge, but they made a bet that he'd be hurt again, or at least not perform at an MVP level, so they could get him for cheaper. Judge won that bet and now they'll have to pay him an insane amount. Not to mention that comparing Berrios and Rogers to 2 MVPs is a little ridiculous to start with.

This is interesting to me. What would you call what the Reds have done for the last year if you wouldn't call it tanking? They've traded away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Rasiel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart, Amir Garrett, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Drury since last season. I guess you can sugar coat it and call it rebuilding, but they are most definitely not trying to win major league baseball games with those moves. Now not caring about it is a different thing. But I'm curious about the stance that nobody is tanking in baseball.

I like this idea. Give him a start. It's not doing anything drastic to his service time since he likely won't be in the rotation to start 2023 anyways. Let him get the feel and experience of a big league game and be that much more motivated to attack the offseason and come into spring training ready to steal someone's job. I don't see what it could hurt to let him finish the Saints season and then make a start against Chicago to end the season. Overall it's time to turn things over to Varland, Ronny, Ober, Winder, Ryan, Gray this season. Bundy has fulfilled his role, but I don't need to see him start anymore games. Archer's season should be over. Be careful with Gray coming back from his hammy cuz there's no reason not to be, but the rest of the starts should go to young guys who will be part of the future. Don't care about Ws or stats. Get them some experience.

I think the general feeling on Lee is he won't have the range to be a big league SS. Now scouts have certainly thought that about others and been proven wrong, but I think Lewis looked like he could handle the position pretty well when he filled in for Correa. I wouldn't be mad with either configuration as both are likely above average 3B, but I'd lean Lewis at SS for the added range he'll likely provide. Mostly I just hope both reach pretty close to their ceilings and things will take care of themselves from there.

I think the more likely outcome in the IF if Correa isn't back is Lewis at SS and Lee at 3B at midseason. Assuming all goes right for both of those players. I'd be quite happy with a Lewis and Lee leftside for the next 7-10 years if they're both what we hope they are.

I'll have to disagree on the pen being the easiest thing to fix. In fact, I'd argue it's the hardest thing to fix. Pen arms are highly volatile and predicting which ones will perform from year to year is incredibly difficult. I'd also argue the Twins have a solid bullpen base going into 2023 with Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Alcala. The Twins problem is their bullpen usage. If you're going with nothing but 1 inning guys you're going to burn them all out before you even get to the stretch run if you're going to stick to 5 inning starts all year. If the Twins were getting/allowing 6 and 7 inning starts every night they'd be able to unleash Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Fulmer in the vast majority of close games since they'd only need 2 or 3 a night. I think they have assembled a talented bullpen right now, but using 4 of those guys in every game is impossible so you get stuck using the Pagan's of the world far too frequently and getting less productive versions of those 5 guys because you're also wearing them all out. I think they have a decent strategy with the bullpen construction, outside of getting stuck on a guy and refusing to give up on them (Colome, Duffey, Pagan) for far too long. Bullpens are mostly built by having a few guys you expect to be great and then rolling through options until you find the other 4 or 5 guys who are going to be good that year. The Twins just need to be better at managing their bullpen. And that's where I don't trust this FO or manager.

Yeah, I don't expect any changes because it just isn't really how the Pohlads roll. The reason I'd like to see change is I'm just not at all convinced this regime is up to making the needed changes the owners hopefully are demanding. I expect to see starters going longer next year with a full ST, but things will come up during the season, or offseason even, and this regime just doesn't appear to have the ability to come off their plans and adjust. The injury stuff is super confusing to me and I hope their answer isn't just shrugging their shoulders and saying "it's just bad luck."

I've been one of the bigger FO/Rocco defenders on these pages this season. Not because I love everything they do, or think they're all great. I'm not a "Rocco lover" (I don't think you'd find many Rocco lovers anymore, just Rocco understanders). I think the FO/Rocco (yes, they need to all be viewed as 1 entity, Rocco is simply an extension of the FO) have set the Twins up in a good spot moving forward, but I now want to see a different FO team and manager take the team from here. Their complete inability to adjust on the fly has destroyed this season. The injuries have certainly compounded things, but even some of that appears to be self inflicted. How does Kepler start 1 game, and have a handful of brutal pinch hitting appearances, since September 4th and just get put on the IL today (retroactive to the 14th)? They completely wasted a roster spot for 13 days. I don't expect Wallner to light the world on fire the rest of the season, and Contreras is nothing to write home about, but let's at least try instead of tying our own hands. They did the same thing with Polanco. 4-6 week injuries turn into 8-12 week injuries. Either they have too big of a voice in medical decisions (and force conservative handling of players), or they've hired absolutely horrible medical staffs and refused to move on from them when it's become painfully clear. The short starts have caught up to them and they continue to ignore it and refuse to change the strategy. I don't think they have a great rotation, and actually think having regular shorter starts has helped prop that unit up, but at some point you have to acknowledge the season is on the line and you have to try to get an extra inning out of guys. Ober had 4 rehab starts and his last one was 66 pitches. If he couldn't have pressed to 80 yesterday you shouldn't have started him. Or at least not have had the plan to use all but one of your top relievers for a second straight day before going into a double header. Are there people in the FO that push back and are ignored or is everyone from Falvey to Rocco in lock step on this? If they don't have a contingent pushing back then they're screwed and their echo chamber will doom the rest of their time in MN. I like the roster. I think the development systems are in a great place. There's a real organizational base to build from already in place, but I think it's time to move on from the Falvine/Rocco era. They just don't seem to have the ability to make on the fly changes or adjustments to their plans. I gave them the whole season to see if they'd start extending pitchers a little (and, to be fair, they did let Gray and Ryan go 7 against KC), but they've put their team behind the 8 ball in their season defining series with continual self inflicted bullpen overuse. I don't know how many games the Pohlads actually watch, but if they were watching last night and didn't start having second thoughts about their people in charge then they truly don't care about the Twins ever winning. All they needed was 1 extra inning out of Ober last night in the most important game of the year to this point, and they just couldn't stop being overly cautious (blows my mind that they look at the IL situation and think their limiting of players is helping them stay healthy) and sticking to the plan. I think it's time to turn the keys over to a new regime.

Rumors starting to swirl that Wallner isn't playing for the Saints tonight, and may just find himself in a new jersey this weekend.

Last I saw Buxton was only running in the pool and not doing any sort of baseball type activities. I think there's a 0% chance he plays against Cleveland. And we very well may not see him again at all this year. Polanco, though, is rehabbing in St Paul tonight. I think that's a waste of a day, but hopefully he meets the team in Cleveland this weekend.

Eh, a bit of semantics to me. Of course teams want to pay as little as they can for WAR, but, as bean pointed out, WAR generally costs $8m on the free agent market when all is said and done. Maybe I worded it wrong, but that's really the point. Teams would love to spend less than 6M for 1 WAR if they can, and it's generally the idea behind "smart signings" whether it's buying out FA years or signing free agents. Teams are always looking to get the most WAR for their bucks. MLB teams are most certainly aware of these numbers as well. The smart ones are baking in some WAR cushion and are expecting the free agent signees to perform at the 1 WAR for $8M threshold even if they signed them at the 1 WAR for 6M mark. I'd be surprised if those skeptical of analytics change their tune over 6M per WAR vs 8M per WAR. If you don't like WAR to start it doesn't really matter what monetary value you put on it. Maybe if we broke it down by dollar per BA/HR/RBI total they'd be on board? Whether you want to say he's worth 24 or 32 doesn't matter all that much to me. Like you said, paying him 15 a year is still a great deal.

Buxton has 4 WAR this year (both fangraphs and baseball reference have him at exactly 4). I'll assume he doesn't accumulate anymore. On the free agent market teams look to buy 1 WAR for $8 million. That means he's been worth $32 million this season. That means he's already been worth this year's $9 mil, next year's $15 mil, and over half of 2024's $15 mil. Him and his injuries are certainly incredibly frustrating. His Ks are frustrating. His lack of steals (likely cuz of his injuries) are frustrating. But that deal is still fantastic for the Twins. $15 million a year is not hamstringing them in any way. 75 to 100 games a year out of Buxton means he more than earns that deal. As frustrating as it'd be to only get that out of him, it's still a great deal for the Twins. A team serious about contending doesn't let a player with Buxton's skill level sign somewhere else. The team did do all the analytics and then threw a party when they signed him to a deal worth only $15 million a year.

I'm to the point that I don't have any idea how injuries are managed. Like who is in charge of IL decisions? They have guys sit the full allotment of days they can before retroactively putting them on the IL (I think it's 4 days, but could be totally wrong). That means they play all of those days short handed with a completely wasted roster spot. Then their guys are slow to come back and 10/15 day IL stints that should last 4-6 weeks turn into 60 day IL stints that last 10+ weeks. I think it's pretty obvious the FO has a large hand in game strategy and player usage, and it's why I don't think Rocco gets fired. He's in lockstep with them and their strategies. I'm starting to wonder how much of a role they play in the injury prevention and treatment department. Do they hire conservative medical teams that agree with a preconceived idea that rest, off days, and long IL stints are the smart thing to do? Have they just hired incompetent medical teams that can't diagnose or treat injuries? Really my question is what role the FO plays in everything involved with injury prevention and treatment. If it's more than simply asking Drs for their suggestions I think it's a major problem. Either way they need to re-evaluate everything when it comes to injuries moving forward into 2023 and beyond.

Limiting innings and pitches hasn't done a great job of winning games or keeping guys healthy the last couple seasons. Joe Ryan is far from a max effort guy. The fact he doesn't throw 100 pitches often is self-inflicted by the organization. I'm not suggesting there should be no pitch or inning limits, but if they didn't limit his pitches as often then 106 to 130 pitches in 1 game wouldn't be such a concern. Ignoring the human aspect of things also isn't a great strategy for winning games. Frustrating your entire starting staff isn't a great strategy for winning games. These are still hypercompetitive professional athletes who want to compete. They clearly didn't sell Ryan on pulling him Tuesday. He was visibly upset with the decision. You don't think his fellow starters, and likely entire team, didn't also want to see him keep going? I'd guess some of them accept the reasoning and it's whatever, but I'd guess there's more than a couple who get more and more frustrated as the team is managed in a certain way. And I'm not one who calls for Rocco's head or to ignore analytics or anything, but there has to be a balance. If 1 game was ruining careers left and right it'd be pretty obvious and nobody would ever go over 110 pitches, or whatever the cutoff is. It's simply not the case. Especially for a non-max effort guy like Ryan. Stepping on the field for any amount of time in any game is risking injury. You "risk having any kind of injury for a no-hitter" because it's what kids dream of. It's what fans come out to see. It's what Ryan puts the jersey on for. It's greatness. Even for a night. The search of finding that groove and being the best player on a field full of professional athletes even for a night is what they do it for. Taming that isn't a good strategy for winning games. At all.

Well the pitcher actually throwing that perfect game disagrees with you. There was not the slightest hint in anything he said after the game that suggested he thought he should stay in. So not sure what to tell you.

There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Phillies... what made the Red Sox think he'd be capable of being a competent manager? There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Red Sox (technically they just didn't pick up his option)...what made the Guardians think he was capable of being a competent manager?

I don't want Roberts, but that Kershaw game was the first week of the season after a shortened spring training with a guy who hasn't held up in recent years who they wanted to be around for the whole season, and, more importantly, the postseason. They're very different situations. So it computes pretty easily.

Funny thing is that Cash and Roberts would be just as hated here as Rocco since they manage just as strictly by spreadsheets as Rocco does. People poopoo the 2019 season because of "the Bomba Squad" and all those homeruns "make it easy to manage" while ignoring that they also had a top 10 pitching staff that year that Rocco apparently didn't ruin single handedly. Yet Roberts gets credit for managing successful teams full of All Stars and MVPs. I don't think Roberts is any better than Rocco. And the Rays are the leaders in managing by "the plan" so I hope fans who don't like Rocco don't want Cash here. Francona is a better mix of following the analytics and in-game feel. But it's just as easy to manage a pitching staff full of stars as it is to manage a lineup like the Bomba Squad. He hasn't turned the Guardians into offensive juggernauts with some sort of magical managerial potion. Managers just can't turn bad baseball players into good ones.

I expect Rocco to be back in 2023. I don't think he's THE problem, but I do think he's PART of the problem. Pulling Ryan last night was super frustrating to me, and I'd like to see Rocco replaced with someone who would have let the kid try for a likely once in a lifetime opportunity. The problem is that this FO wouldn't replace Rocco with anyone that isn't awfully similar to them and Rocco. So it's a bit of a catch 22. I want Rocco replaced, but his replacement likely wouldn't be much different at all in terms of in game strategy. So why replace him at all? Unless he's lost the clubhouse. I don't mind the FO. I think they're generally good at drafting/acquiring and developing (outside of front end starting pitching, sadly), and have been willing to make some bigger FA splashes like Donaldson and Correa (even if he fell into their laps, I don't think Terry Ryan would've even considered him). The Maeda, Gray, and Mahle trades were good (quit saying Mahle has an injury history unless you were also saying they shouldn't trade for Montas at the deadline, too, because he had missed time with a shoulder injury at almost the exact same time Mahle did, and he's still pitching for NY). But they're far too stubborn. They have their plans and clearly won't waiver from them. They're slow to react to changes in the FA market or performance outside their expected by the Twins team itself (DFA Pagan!). And that's where I'd like to see Rocco replaced with someone who'd push back and demand some in season changes. The problem is that the guys hiring the new manager likely don't want someone who will push back and thus it's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic unless they're going to be willing to be more flexible with the new guy. TLDR: Expect Rocco back, replacing him wouldn't change much cuz FO will just hire Rocco 2.0.