chpettit19

Gallo is going to have some cold spells that will make everyone who didn't like the signing say, or think. "I told you so!" He'll have some hot streaks (like right now) that make those of us who didn't hate it say "see, he's a wonderful risk to take." Chances are he ends the year with a BA in the low 200s, 35+ bombs, a bunch of walks, and bunch of punch-outs. If he's suddenly hitting in the high 200s with power and low K% we need to both lock Popkins into a lifetime deal, and write a very nice letter to the folks who limited the shift. But, with his fielding and base running, we don't need him to be a high 200s, high power, high walks, low K guy. Gallo hitting .210 with 38 bombs, 100 walks, and 200 Ks in the 7 hole with wonderful defense and base running is an absolute win for the Twins. And it's entirely reasonable that the year plays out that way. If he ends April with double digit HRs he's well on his way to being well worth the $11M.

I just don't get what the FO saw in Gallo...

The interesting thing is the Twins hit .333 with runners in scoring position. Good for 5th in baseball after the first weekend.

Welcome to Twins Daily! I certainly think it's a possibility, but, generally speaking, they prefer to wait as long as they can before changing a game date. Fans have planned for this date for a while and you don't want to mess with those plans if you don't have to. Even if Friday looks like it'll be a much nicer day at this point.

I think the analytics leading to increases in three true outcome results played a large role in the pitch clock. Yes, all the walking around the mound, or adjusting batting gloves, or whatever have grown as well, but the games were starting to last longer and longer as teams began building teams based around hitters working counts (also a strategy to get starters out earlier), and pitchers striking people out. It all kind of piled on and created a game that was lengthening. To your point about changing the number of bases or balls and strikes, it wasn't going to be easy to stop hitters from working counts or convince guys striking out wasn't that big of a deal so they had to go with the clock. So I think there was some analytics driven game length stuff on top of the just super slow pace of some guys.

Julien's current OBP in AAA is .154. 1 for 12 with 6 Ks and 1 walk in AAA is not exactly what I'd expect to see out of someone who is so clearly the obvious answer to batting leadoff in the majors. Brooks Lee has a chance to be great, but he wasn't great in Spring Training, and dropping him into an everyday role 8 months after he was drafted would be an absolutely awful decision for his development. They'll get their chances, and both have a chance to be wonderful players. But let's pump the brakes a bit on them for now. It's 3 games in.

I think dropping that platoon into the 9th spot with Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Larnach-Miranda (or arrange them however you want) at the top would be my choice over dropping Polanco all the way down to 6th. My thought process being that when you get late in the game and you've switched that platoon up as the other team starts bringing in relievers you're more likely to end up with Farmer or Gordon hitting against a same-handed pitcher, and then you've turned your 1 hole hitter into a well below average hitter while Polanco is losing ABs being way down at 6th.

Twins released Greiner and Sisco at the end of March.

So far this season Gallo is in the 58th percentile for sprint speed. His 26.5 ft/s sprint speed is the slowest of his career to this point. He's been more of a 27+ ft/s guy to this point. Larnach's sprint speed this season is at 27.0 ft/s after having been 26.5 last year. They're about as similar as you can get. Both much better athletes than you'd expect out of 6'4" and 6'5" guys. Nice to have some added athleticism to the Twins lineup! But I agree, Larnach is just fine in the 4 hole.

Fascinating thoughts here. Buxton has a career OBP of .302. He doesn't steal bases anymore. And is a high K, low BA slugger. But he's really fast. Gallo has a career OBP of .325. He doesn't really steal bases either. He's a high K, low BA slugger. But he's not super fast. Is Buxton's "skill set" just being fast? Because that's literally the only thing in their offensive games that he's got a real advantage in when it comes to leading off. Gallo lead the American League in walks just 2 years ago and had an OBP of .351. Buxton has had an OBP over .314 1 time in his career. I fail to see how Buxton "can actually get on base" or is the closest to being a classic leadoff hitter "based on his skill set." He's just the fastest guy on the team. All that being said I'd put Buxton there. But that's just because I want my most dangerous hitters getting the most ABs. I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa to sandwich Polanco between the 2 righties and ensure he's seeing mostly righties since he's a better left handed hitter. But that lineup configuration has nothing to do with Buxton being anything close to a classic leadoff hitter. He's not. Never has been. Gallo had a 9.1% BB rate last year. By far his worst of his career. Buxton has never topped 9% in any season. Buxton is no classic leadoff hitter. He's simply fast. He's basically the opposite of Arraez who we're comparing these guys to. And Arraez had no speed at all. Gallo is actually quite a bit faster than Arraez. Interesting takes here.

My struggle is with the idea that "Lopez was dealing" when you admit you weren't able to watch the game. He wasn't "dealing." He was getting outs. But the 4th and 5th were most definitely not dealing. He was lucky to get Melendez to swing at a 3-1 pitch that should've been ball 4 and walked in a run. Melendez is a patient hitter, and against a better team he won't get away with that. This is one of the situations where the box scores aren't giving enough info to describe what was actually happening. Pablo getting out of the 4th and 5th with no runs scored was great, but it wasn't as if he'd gone 5 innings and only had 2 base runners. He was losing control of his fastball fast.

I may be mistaken, but I don't believe Beloit is a Twins affiliate any longer. Cedar Rapids is the Twins high A affiliate now. Now Iowa isn't exactly Florida, but they don't play there until the 11th. No idea if he'll be on the roster or not when the Kernels go to Peoria on the 6th, but those places are typically in the 60s in April. I can't say I know what their forecasts are for the end of next week in Peoria, or Cedar Rapids for the week after, but if it's the 60s I wouldn't expect the Twins to start Rodriguez in FL because of weather.

What I always come back to on this topic is "what are other teams doing?" Are other teams really doing much more than the Twins? The NFL has rules about how and when injury information is disseminated by teams so they don't really fit in the debate. The NHL has a requirement of saying if it's an upper or lower body injury. How often, and how well, are the Wild giving updates on Kaprizov, his treatment, and his timeline? I don't follow them nearly as close as the Twins, but I don't remember seeing weekly updates on him. Completely possible I'm missing updates, though. The NBA has some fake rules about sitting players during national TV games, but it's well known that any NBA player can just be sitting during any random game because of "load management." How well were the Wolves updating their fans on the KAT injury over the last 4 or 5 months (I don't follow them closely so forget how long it was that he was out)? I do remember at least 1 article mentioning that the timeline for KAT ended up being much longer than they'd originally said. Are the folks over at Wolves Daily up in arms over that? I'm confused by the difference between that Warriors tweet on Curry and what we get out of the Twins. There's multiple articles on Lewis and his recovery out there. There were tweet after tweet about Buxton, Kirilloff, and Polanco all spring saying pretty much the same thing that the Curry tweet says. They were taking BP, playing minor league games, whatever and making progress. Their return to the "real field" would depend on how they progress and respond to those other activities. The Twins gave more than weekly updates all spring that were the same as what the example tweet used here says they should be doing. I simply fail to see where other teams are doing significantly more than the Twins.

I think money plays a role in it, but not as directly as simply "this guy makes more." They acquired Vazquez because they think he's better than Jeffers. Jeffers making 10x less than Vazquez is a result of the CBA rules governing contracts. They brought Gallo in because they think he'll be good, so he'll get chances early in the year, not because he's making more than Gordon (for example). They traded for Pagan because they thought he'd be good. No idea why Pagan is still here, but when we're talking opening day, and start of the season in general, it's not about having paid Vazquez more, it's about them thinking he's the better player and you're not going to change your opinion about years worth of data because of a month of data against minor leaguers. Money can certainly lead to teams holding guys for longer than they would if they were cheaper, but the opening day lineup is based on their offseason plans adjusted for injuries (mostly). Teams are too smart to change their minds based on spring stats. Fans are not necessarily as informed. But that's the "beauty" of fandom. Don't have to be logical about any of it! Happy opening day to you, and go Twins!

I think Vazquez's worth is more in his work with the pitching staff than his bat. But, in general, couldn't care less about ST stats. Was Jeffers facing mostly lefties who we know he can hit? What did he do against righties? Was he facing major leaguers or minor leaguers? I don't have the answers to these questions, they're just an example of why I don't think ST stats matter at all. Way too many variables to be making decisions off of. But I think Vazquez is the go to guy because of his work with pitchers. I don't think Solano over Julien was about $, it was about options. Julien has them, Solano doesn't. Sending Julien down means you still have them both in your org. Keeping Julien means you no longer have Solano. Unfortunately for young players that's the system the CBA has put in place, and it makes way more sense to start the season with Solano.

He's due?

Miranda just seems to be a guy who knows how to put the bat on the ball. Looks real "hitterish" to me. Has the chance to establish himself as a heart-of-the-order bat this year. I never really expected great pop out of him (not bad, but not 30-homer type), but he's hit a couple balls this spring that sure make him look like he may get to 30 bombs in a season a time or 2. I'd be more than happy with 20 homers and 40 doubles. I like Larnach's new Freeman-esque looking swing. Up the middle oriented swing with plenty of power to hit it out there while also using "the big part of the field" to maintain a nice BA. Health is the only real question I have with him. If he stays healthy I think he establishes himself as the #4 or 5 hitter in this lineup for the next 5 years. Ober is simply all about health. He can't become a trusted starter for this team if he can't get to 100-120 innings this season. Can he stay healthy? That's the only question with him. If he can't make it to 100-120 innings this season he's got to go to the pen and try to stay healthy there. Kid can pitch, but can he pitch enough to be a starter?

MLB.com just ran a story showing where the top 100 prospects are all starting the season. They have Rodriguez at High A to start the year. If that's where he's starting I think reaching AA should be a minimum goal for him this year. AAA should be the highest mostly realistic goal. I don't disagree that MLB isn't out of the question if he's truly a star, but there's a lot of guys to jump in front of him for that to happen. But reaching AAA at the age of 20 would be gigantic. My guess is they don't rush him and he tops out at AA, and that's still great. 20 year old in AA means he has a legit chance of being a 21 year old in MLB in 2024, and that's plenty soon enough.

If I'm remembering correctly, Henriquez started throwing again a little while back so it could be that Sands is holding that spot. I'd expect Sands is at, or near, the bottom of the 40-man at this point. They won't take him off if they don't need to, but a really rough April from him and an injury to a catcher could lead to him being the DFA to get a catcher on the 40-man (just an example of a need for a 40-man spot). I think Sands is pitching for his 40-man spot in April almost as much as his 26-man spot. I don't like his chances, but this is why they play the games. I hope him and Pagan both prove me wrong, but I'm not excited about the pen including both of them at this point.

I think the bigger hurdle with Coulombe making it over Sands opening day is there wasn't a 40-man spot for him. They'd have to DFA someone (assuming Castro is taking the 1 open spot already) to get Coulombe on the roster. Which is why I think the Coulombe over Pagan argument is better. Take Pagan off the 40-man and put Coulombe on.

I'd much rather have Coulombe than Pagan on the major league roster. I really hope Pagan is good and proves the FO right, but I really don't see it and don't understand their obsession with him.

I have no problem with you, or anyone, being critical. They deserve it. I'm critical of them on certain things. But, like you said, facts matter. Bring all the criticism, but bring the facts with it. ☺️

I'm not sure what you're expecting as far as "self-criticism" is concerned. Do you see a lot of other FOs coming out and saying they were terrible? Has anyone over in Chicago come out and had big, public "self-criticism" remarks after their failed season last year? That's just not really something people do. Making changes in plans, strategies, and rosters is the closest I think we should expect to get to "self-criticism." And, for what it's worth, I've actually heard Levine be pretty critical of the FO during season ticket holder events. I don't think the strategy going into last year was for all those short starts the entire season. Gray, Ryan, and Paddack were getting 6 and 7 inning starts in April. That doesn't look like a "short start" strategy to me. Archer's body just never built up to being able to go longer. Bundy simply was what he was. They also started the year with Winder in a long relief role before he got hurt. As far as the strategy of being able to survive with the Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ types of the world, I don't even know how they thought that was possible to start. I'm certainly glad they've moved on from that. Even if their reasoning was they were expecting young arms to come up and take spots, it was still a terrible plan to start the seasons with those 4 guys. Just gross. I like what they've done this year much better. As for Archer specifically, I'd argue the reason any of his stats look even reasonably ok is because of how they managed him. There's some flaws in just looking back at box scores and saying "hey, Archer didn't give up any runs through 4 so they should've let him start the 5th." A large part of winning games in MLB is avoiding blowup innings. It's why 3 run homers are so sought after. The Twins were looking at way more than just the hits and runs on the board after 4. They were tracking spin rates, velo, extension, time between pitches, strike %, and all sorts of things pitch to pitch during his starts. Seeing all those numbers decline as he works through the 3rd and 4th makes it pretty hard to put him back out there for the 5th as the lineup turns over and he's looking at the best hitters on the other team coming up next as his arm is clearly starting to wear out. Not saying they nailed their decisions every time, or even most of the time, but there's a lot more to these decisions than can be gleamed from looking back on old box scores.

Welcome to Twins Daily! I will note that many of us who speak on Bundy and Archer's short starts have done research and drawn our own conclusions on facts. Like the facts of Archer's performance in the 5th inning last year. He went into the 5th in 40% of his starts last year and had an ERA over 11 in the 5th. Gave up an OPS against over .850. He was terrible when they let him try to do it so they limited how often they let him do it.

Nothing too surprising even if some of it is disappointing. Ober is definitely one of their 13 most talented pitchers, but he's not stretched out, and a 6 man rotation to start the year doesn't seem ideal. Sands doesn't look at all like he's one of their 13 best pitchers, but it's not surprising that they weren't looking to DFA anyone before the season to get Hoffman, or anyone else, in the long man role. My guess would be that Sands is pitching for not only his 26-man spot in April, but his 40-man. Castro had a solid spring and is drastically more versatile than Garlick, who appeared to be his main competition for the 13th hitter spot. He seems like a pretty ideal fit in that role as he can play just about anywhere defensively, and can provide some speed off the bench. Julien has to be frustrated, but I get not wanting him sitting on the bench in Minneapolis over getting everyday PAs in St Paul. If there was a starting spot for him I think it'd be a different story. But Larnach in LF and Gordon at 2B mixed with Buxton at DH would push Julien to the bench, and that's not a great role for him big picture. So, it's not all as ideal as possible, but all makes sense.