chpettit19

If I could get Miller in return for Kepler I'd do that in an instant. He'd be the best pitching prospect in the org immediately, with only Prielipp being his equal in terms of ceiling, but Miller is significantly closer to debuting. Could probably pitch out of the pen immediately.

Interesting that you have Narvaez as getting a bigger deal than Vasquez. I'd guess those numbers are inverse in the end and Vasquez gets the bigger deal. FYI, the Mets can't "meet the qualifying offer." That's not how it works in baseball. The Mets are in the same negotiating boat as everyone else when it comes to Bassitt. They just get a draft pick, and the Twins lose one, if we sign him. They can't match the offer and automatically get him. Bassitt also rumored to be demanding at least 4 years. And probably north of 22 with how the market is going right now. I like Fulmer coming back. I've seen a number of people suggest signing Iglesias and I'm fascinated by it. What is the motivation for signing a guy who's no better than the guy they already traded for? I'd bring Correa back on a pretty massive deal, but to each their own.

My guess is they're planning on inflation making his 2030 and beyond salaries not look that huge and they're stretching out his luxury tax threshold hit over extra years to make him more affordable during the years they expect him to be good. It's an interesting gamble. If they're wrong on their projections for where prices are going over the next decade it could look bad, but they were able to stretch it over so many years that his AAV is quite low (relatively speaking) and allows them extra flexibility. If prices keep rising his 25.5 per year may not look too bad as he gets old. They may even be crossing their fingers he retires at some point during the deal to free his roster spot as if they're right about prices his roster spot is going to be more of a concern than the 25 mil. I'm guessing they're expecting Machado to leave after 2023 as well. It's going to be interesting to see how it all plays out. Edited to add: This is also going to be an interesting experiment for future CBAs. Does the league eventually push for contract length limits to avoid teams manipulating things in this way? I believe that's what the NHL did when teams were signing guys to 13 year deals and such. Same with the NBA. And the NFL with their rookie deals. Eventually the league saves the teams from themselves and limits contracts to avoid the anchors some teams sign. MLB obviously different with no cap and such. But adds an extra variable to the negotiations.

It's been interesting to watch the 2 "big money" team strategies do battle. You have the Mets and Dodgers who seem to be trying to do super high AAV deals for few years then you have the Padres and Phillies going with massive length (assumedly to lower luxury tax hits year to year) with lower AAVs. Will be interesting to see how those long deals effect things as Harper, Turner, Tatis, Bogaerts, etc. age and stop being productive. The Bogaerts deal blows my mind. I agree with your maxes for Rodon and Badditt. I want nothing to do with Rodon's arm for 7 years.

FYI, if the Twins sign 1 player who rejected a QO they lose their 3rd highest draft pick (would be pick 50), if they sign 2 they would also lose pick 85. Their current picks are numbers 5 (round 1), 34 (competitive balance A), 50 (#11 in round 2), 85 (#13 in round 3), 117 (#13 in round 4), and so on.

The reports are that the Marlins wanted Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza for Lopez and Rojas at the deadline. Polanco and Lewis probably the most comparable package as an established, but not superstar, vet and an MLB ready, big time SS prospect. I'd guess the price would come down a little now as he's closer to free agency. Would they do Polanco for Lopez? Would the Twins? Polanco is older, but has 1 more year of control than Lopez. It'd be an interesting trade.

Do you mean Machado? I don't remember Tatis having opt outs, especially not this early in his deal. I could be misremembering, though.

I don't know that they're overloaded with middle infielders. I think most in the sport believe they're moving Tatis to the out field. I think they view their middle infield as Bogaerts and Kim with Cronenworth playing more 1B this time. I wouldn't mind them calling about Kim if they don't sign Correa, but I don't think the Padres view themselves as overloaded with middle infielders.

Weird that you cut that off right before Rosenthal/MLB trade rumors goes into the fact that their Bauer bill is the main reason why they aren't pursuing him. Or any other big ticket FA. But I hope you enjoyed posting that. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/dodgers-interested-in-carlos-correa.html "Heyman mentions that the Dodgers “appear to have landed on” Carlos Correa as their preferred replacement for Turner in free agency while Ardaya notes that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been non-committal about continuing to spend well above the luxury tax going forward and has mentioned a desire to integrate the talent LA has at the upper levels of its farm system into the 2023 big league club." https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-rumors-la-is-leading-candidate-to-sign-carlos-correa/2022/12/04/ That's from the day before your post. https://dodgersway.com/2022/12/06/dodgers-rumors-carlos-correa-free-agency-ultimate-twist/ Oh, and that one. https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-rumors-scott-boras-isnt-worried-about-carlos-correas-astros-connection-for-la-rm94 Sports illustrated getting in on the action, too. Maybe I'm not the one reality is calling... The Dodgers talked to Correa and Boras (why would they do that if they weren't interested? Weird). They got a feel for where the numbers would have to be and then backed out. It's almost like they're now playing the PR game of "we really care about you fans and that's why we didn't pursue him" even though they did pursue him. Or do you think they called Boras just to tell him they're still mad at Carlos?

It sounds like the bigger Dodger concern is the Bauer bill they may be having to pay soon. They are out on basically all big money guys because of that. Being in the luxury tax means if his appeal goes his way and they have to pay his whole salary they're getting hit with a massive tax bill on top of his already massive contract they think they got out of with his suspension. It sounds like the Padres prefer to move Tatis to the OF. Which makes sense to me. They seem to be looking to upgrade on Kim with the presumption of Tatis basically being done as a SS. I'm not sure the Red Sox being back at the table with Bogaerts is good. It certainly might be, but they don't feel like they really want to spend money these days. Bogaerts is the likely backup plan to missing on Correa and I'd prefer him still be available if the Twins miss on Correa. I don't like the Twins chances to outbid the Giants so would like to have a chance at Bogaerts still if they lose on Correa.

No worries, I agree with your long reliever take (they need at least 1 guy who goes multiple innings regularly) but Neshek was definitely not that guy. He was fun to watch, though. Draft lottery is at 7:30 tonight, fyi.

No, Eddie Rosario's batting numbers were not "very good." They were solid, but not worth the contract they would have had to pay him in arbitration. As shown by the fact that nobody signed him to a deal the size they would've had to pay him in arbitration. And he was a poor defender and base runner who made a lot of mental mistakes. Some of the rookies should be in AAA, yes. But they also need the chance to prove they can adjust and perform in the majors after they've mastered AAA. That's how it works. Alex Kirilloff can do no more in AAA. He's proven without a doubt that he's too good for that level. The question now is if he's good enough to be in the majors. You can't find that out if you don't play him in the majors. Trevor Larnach mastered AAA. Jose Miranda mastered AAA. Celestino did not and I'd put him back there. Wallner is on the border, but I'd start him in AAA. Lewis has mastered AAA and needs to be in the majors. I don't think they should build their entire team around rookies/young players (I want them to sign Correa and let Lewis/Lee/whoever find a spot when they establish themselves). But they need to have some mixed in because of the nature of finances in major league baseball. I'm not ignoring any side of the game and am advocating for taking the complete player into account. You constantly complain about young players being around the Mendoza line while pushing for Kepler to stay with the Twins despite him having a worse BA than many of the young guys when they're healthy. And that's because you love his defense. I don't mind Kepler around as a 4th OFer, but his defense in RF doesn't make up for the hole he puts in the lineup. It's entirely possible for those of us who wouldn't mind seeing him replaced are taking a defensive drop into account when we wish for an upgrade in RF. Slightly worse defense with significantly better offense makes the team better. But you often times just point to the defensive drop and say it'd automatically be a bad move. That's extreme.

Or it's poor offense. Each game is different. The Twins had the 12th and 11th best defenses the last 2 seasons. So, yes, they can absolutely improve. But your constant pointing to a player's defensive capabilities as the be all end all of where they belong in the organization is extreme. You wouldn't even have Wallner in AAA because of his defense. That's extreme. I gave you a whole list of really good defensive teams that lose and really bad defensive teams that win. You put too much emphasis on defense when baseball is more so about hitting and pitching. Yes, the Twins have some bad defenders, and could improve overall as a team. But simply pointing to a player's defensive stats and saying whether or not he should be on the Twins is extreme.

You have any proof of this? I don't see any reason to believe this.

I think he's going to have a hard time finding a 6 year deal, but good for him if he can. I agree the Rangers and Angels are the 2 teams most likely to get crazy (because they're the worst run, high spending teams currently), but extra years have been hard to come by with the other big guns (NYY and LAD especially). The big guys are now flexing their spending power on short term, high AAV deals. I wouldn't be surprised by either NY team signing Rodon for 3 years at 40M+ AAV. As for the Twins in this whole thing, they're pretty clearly out at the numbers being thrown around for front end pitching.

I got ya. I'm just saying that a player of his stature isn't taking a deal with half of it being tied to incentives. A player of his caliber likely isn't taking any incentives at all. Buyouts and opt outs are one thing, but incentives, especially those tied to team performance like playoff wins and world series, aren't something guys like Correa take.

The Giants are all in on bringing in the best player they can. First they're going to try to bring in Judge. If they miss on him they'll move onto Correa and try to bring him in. If they miss on him they'll move to whoever they have next highest on the list. Really they're just living the life of a big payroll team. Start at the top of the list and work your way down until you spend all your money.

The Twins had the 12th best defense in baseball last year. 11th in 2021. Can they improve? 100%. But suggesting their defense has been the main contributor in them losing too many games the last 2 years simply isn't correct. Their defense should be their 3rd highest concern out of offense, pitching, and defense concerns moving into 2023.

I'm planning an "all 30 stadiums in 1 season" journey, but you've blown my idea out of the water with this one. What a fun summer adventure! I look forward to continuing to follow your planning and journey.

I think that offer has Boras telling the team to look for other options. Now that's totally fine if you don't really want Correa/aren't that serious about signing him. But if the Twins are serious about signing Correa you're going to need to raise that AAV by at least 10. 8/160 (that's the deal you really offered) wouldn't satisfy Correa, Boras, or the MLBPA. Half of a contract for the best SS in the game being tied to incentives isn't something anyone other than the Twins would be happy with.

Defense is important, but your blind love for it feels a little extreme. The Phillies made the world series this year with the 25th best defense in baseball. The Diamondbacks were 74-88 with the 6th best defense. The Padres were one of the best teams in baseball, and had the 19th best defense. In 2021 the Yankees won 92 games with the 29th best defense. White Sox won 93 games with the 28th best defense. Phillies won 82 with the 30th ranked defense. Rangers went 60-102 with the best defense in baseball in 2021. Rockies were 74-87 with the 5th best defense. Marlins had 7th best defense and won 67 games.

Pat Neshek was not a long reliever. Did he have a few games early where he went more than 1 inning? Yes. But he was no long reliever. In '06 he had 37 innings in 32 games. In '07 he had 70.1 innings in 74 games. In '08 he had 13.1 innings in 15 games. In '10 he had 9 innings in 11 games. 3 of his 4 seasons here he averaged less than an inning per outing. He wasn't a long reliever after he left, either. In fact, he never averaged even 1 inning per outing in any year after his rookie year. He threw 488 innings in 544 appearances in his career. That's .9 innings per appearance.

I think Bogaerts is the only other likely SS option that would be a real upgrade on Farmer, and he's represented by Boras as well. I don't think the Twins have any shot at all of signing Turner, and Swanson seems like a distant 3rd on their list. Dealing with Boras on both Correa and Bogaerts should give them a pretty good idea of how each other markets are moving and help them avoid missing on both if either can be signed in the Twins price range.

Should the Twins give Boras and Correa a deadline? Absolutely not. The Twins aren't a team that can get into a bidding war for someone like Correa so Boras isn't concerned about them and their deadline (unless Correa has told him he only wants to play in MN, and I find that impossible to believe). Should the Twins be cognizant of how the market is moving and have their own internal triggers that should cause them to take different paths and be more urgent with other plans than Correa if he's dragging things out? Absolutely. When I hear "deadline" I think date. There's no sense in putting a date on things in the MLB offseason. It's just too long with no league determined deadlines. Putting handcuffs on yourself doesn't make sense to me. Either you pick a date that's too far out and you lose out on everyone else you may have wanted to honor that date with Correa, or you pick a date that's too soon and you lose out on your number 1 target because you got too anxious. It's just about reading the market and how it's playing out, not "deadlines." Correa won't sign until Judge does unless someone meets his top number right now, and that's not likely. Bogaerts likely won't sign until Correa does (Boras also represents him and will have a great read on the market and how well he can play Bogaert's deal off of Correa's deal) unless someone meets his top number right now, and that's not likely. The Twins need to have a read on the price ranges for everyone they're interested in. They should be able to sign some of the "lesser" pieces like their 2nd catcher or bullpen arms without needing Correa locked in. They should know where their budget is and how the pieces can all fit in. If they can get Narvaez (as an example) for between 4 and 6 million that's a deal they should be working on simultaneously to the Correa talks. Because Bogaerts is likely their 2nd choice at SS and he shares an agent with Correa the Twins should have a fallback there and they shouldn't be waiting on any of their other deals unless they're planning to sign multiple big money, long-term deals. And I highly doubt that.

Yeah, looks like they missed on that. I'd actually have switched Baddoo and Wells if I were forced to write this article and name a "worst loss" and "jury's still out" candidate. Wells has been a bigger loss than Baddoo who doesn't even look like a major leaguer at this point.