chpettit19

"Cherry picking from that year?" We're literally talking about that year. It's not cherry picking by using the stats from the year you're talking about. What a weird thing to say. It would've been very hard to beat those teams, yes. That's kind of how the postseason is designed. But winning that Yankees series changes a whole lot of narratives, doesn't it? We're not talking about an 18 game playoff losing streak. We're not talking about a FO and manager who've never won a playoff game. It'd change a lot. The Braves won the 2021 World Series with a rotation worse than the Twins 2019 rotation. Charlie Morton and Max Fried were their only 2 pitchers to get to even 2 fWAR that year. It may not be a "hot take," but it's not all that great of a take either. How about you go ask the Dodgers how having all their aces has worked out. Yeah, Washington won that WS with an insane rotation. They completely collapsed with that rotation moving forward. Go look at how Houston's rotation performed in the 2021 post season. People think Rocco has a quick hook? That Astros' rotation averaged less than 4 IP per start on their way to a WS loss. Atlanta wasn't much better. Less than 5 IP per start on their way to a WS title. How's the best starter (Kershaw) of this generation done in the postseason? The Phillies rotation last year was 2 studs (kinda like Berrios and Odo in 2019) followed by a whole bunch of guys who were worse than Pineda and Gibson in 2019. HR's are the "stickiest" playoff offensive stat, actually. So you're provably wrong there. HRs are the best way to score in any baseball game. Even against great pitchers. And it's the stat that caries over the closest from regular season to postseason. You're throwing out all these ideas that people constantly suggest because that's how it "feels" when they watch the postseason. But in reality they're not correct. HRs don't drop in the postseason, BA does. The postseason isn't full of aces blowing through 7, 8, or 9 innings, it's full of staffs of 10 or so guys that can all get playoff guys out. And, mostly, it's just about which team has an Eddie Rosario or 2 that play out of their minds for the month of October. Jeremy Pena being the guy last year (go check his regular season vs postseason stats, it's insane). The postseason is nowhere near as predictable as people like to act. Otherwise the Dodgers would have way more championships than just the 2020 short season title.

By the time they got to the playoffs, yes, but Pineda and Gibson were both 2.6 fWAR pitchers in 2019. That put them in the top 50 in baseball. Along with Berrios and Odo they had 4 pitchers in the top 50 of fWAR that year. Pineda getting suspended, and Gibson getting sick, really changed that team at the end of the year.

As opposed to James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka (and his 4.45 ERA), and Luis Severino who threw 12 regular season innings that year? Cuz those are the games 1, 2, and 3 starters for the Yankees in that series. Not exactly striking fear in any opposing line ups with that trio either.

A healthy (and not suspended) Twins pitching staff in 2019 was top 10 in baseball. Unfortunately, they weren't healthy (or not suspended) in the postseason. They finished top 10 in just about every pitching stat in baseball in 2019.

That data is since 2019, not just 2019. The Dodgers didn't accrue 86 pitching fWAR in 1 season. Here's 2019: Twins 4, Yankees 10 in pitching WAR. Twins beat them in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, and BB/9. The Twins had a good pitching staff in 2019.

They didn't have enough pitching to make up for Pineda getting suspended, Gibson getting sick, and Dyson being hurt. Their overall pitching that year was actually really good, but fell apart going into the playoffs due to their lack of depth. They had the 9th best ERA in baseball. 4th most pitching fWAR, allowed the 5th fewest HR/9, were 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP. It's one of the biggest "what if" seasons I can remember for the Twins. What if their pitching was healthy, and not suspended, going into the playoffs? Could've been a different story. Note: I'm not saying you weren't just meaning depth when you say "didn't have enough pitching," but I like to point out how good their pitching actually was that year because so many people put that entire season on the 307 HRs, and pretend they had a bottom 10 pitching staff or something. That was a complete team when it was all together. Just wasn't all together going into the playoffs, unfortunately.

I'm super excited for this! Really cool so many Twins will get to participate. There are some pretty insane lineups for the top teams. It's awesome to watch all star teams play for real, and truly care about winning. The best baseball players on the planet battling it out is the best!

The change in schedule doesn't really make a big difference in how challenging it is. The biggest changes in win percentage of opponents from the new schedule is like .008%. A bunch of the games we used to play against the Royals and Tigers will now be against the Pirates and Rockies. A bunch of the games we used to play against the White Sox and Guardians will now be against the Cardinals and Braves. It all balances out pretty closely.

I don't expect a 2024 arrival, but I don't think it's outrageous to think he could see some bullpen work in the last half of 2024. Like Chris Sale or David Price (more like Price since his was a very late callup, mostly for the playoffs). If they're competing next year and could use a boost for the stretch run I would hope he'd be an option to come up and unleash a barrage of slide pieces.

Quit ruining my vibe! Let me have my dreams! 😄

Oh, the technology in place now is incredible. But I know spin rates and extension numbers get people heated around here so avoided that side of things in a post that was already pretty long. But to keep this about Prielipp, the article says his slider spin rate is over 2900. You're talking top 10 in the majors at that level. Like that is the elite of the elite type stuff if he is back to that moving forward. So those who are into that kind of data should be real excited that he already has an MLB out pitch.

Prospect ranking is so opinion based it's really hard to have too strong of a feeling one way or the other on any of them (in my opinion). "Sure thing" top prospects fail all the time. "AAAA ceiling" type players turn into stars all the time. It's just a bunch of educated guesses. And then there's differing styles in what people look for in their rankings. A number of people here are like you (from how I'm reading your post) in that they weigh AA/AAA players with production over lower level guys with projection. It's also really hard for the average fan to even pretend to have any idea what "experts" are even seeing/describing in their "projections." I can tell you that the people doing the national rankings have a ton of real connections with major league scouts, and, many times, are former scouts who prefer to not have to travel around so much so just write about and rank prospects now. And real scouts are looking for things most of us aren't, and their "projections" are incredibly in depth and well educated. Doesn't mean anyone should base their rankings off that instead of high minors production, but when scouts are talking about a college sophomore as the best arm in the best college baseball conference and a possible top 1-5 pick in the draft it means they're seeing things they see in the best of the best arms. There's also a difference between minor league production and major league projection. You can look at minor league leader boards and see a bunch of dudes with really nice minor league production who will never reach the majors, let alone succeed there. How you get to your production matters. As an example, Matt Wallner is a oft debated guy around here because he has some nice minor league production, and has debuted in the majors. But he's not loved by national prospect rankings because he really struggles to hit (and maybe recognize?) off speed pitches in the minors. He's gotten to his production by absolutely destroying fastballs, and laying off enough breaking balls to survive. You can do that in the minors because many of the pitchers can't control their breaking stuff well enough to make you pay. Guys in the majors can. A pitching example would be Kohl Stewart. Had really nice minor league numbers in terms of runs allowed stats, but wasn't striking anyone out. Guys thought it was weird early cuz he had good "stuff," and that he'd eventually start getting the Ks. As he progressed the Ks never came and he started falling down ranking boards. His runs allowed numbers never got terrible in the minors, but he struggled in the majors because when you can't K guys you rely on weak contact to get outs. Guys in the majors have weak contact far less than guys in the minors (it's why they're in the majors). So when he couldn't get the ball by guys they were hitting it much harder and his runs allowed stats tanked. If you ever get the chance to talk with a major league scout it's absolutely fascinating to listen to what they look for and how they think. I highly suggest it. They're crazy smart folks when it comes to watching baseball players.

It's still the offseason so hope is still flowing steadily for me. I'm a little greedy and am hoping Lee debuts this year and Prielipp in 2024. Why not have 2 guys who had a chance to be top 5 picks in 2022 both bust out quickly and take this franchise to another level?

Polanco is an interesting piece for the Twins. I see him as both the most vital "X-factor" for the 2023 Twins, and the most likely high-end trade candidate for the 2023/2024 Twins. They absolutely need him back to his old self offensively (and if he can combine his BA from earlier with his new found patience of 2022 this could be his best season yet!) to give them a legit top of the order, and an acceptable offense overall. There's way too many question marks at the bottom of the order that they need Correa and Polanco to be stars at the top (along with Buxton when he's healthy). But he can also be the guy that brings back some real prospects if things play out a certain way with the Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Juliens of the world. I'd need to see an awful lot from multiple of those guys in the first half to think about trading Polanco at the deadline, but next offseason may be the end of the road for him with the Twins. Which would be a bitter sweet thing. He's been the best of the previous core and it'd be hard to see him leave. But, if the new core arrives this year the way we all hope, they'll have too many IFers and Polanco would be the obvious trade candidate for restocking the farm, and even freeing a little cash for a free agent starter (I can still dream they'd pay an arm!). I don't see this as a "make or break" season for Polanco. Even in his down 2022 year he was still well worth his contract. For him to "break" means he completely fell apart and is a 1 WAR, or less, player. I don't see that happening at all. Polanco can be his typical top 10 2B in the league self this year and still get traded. His future with the Twins is far less dependent on him (unless you think there's a chance he's just toast and can't play anymore) than it is on the prospects. If they hit on multiple IF prospects it turns into being a better option for the org to trade him than pay him. That's just the cruel truth of professional sports finances.

I don't know where the right place to rank Prielipp is. He's got "best prospect in the system" upside, but hasn't thrown in a professional game yet. I'm ok with this general range of ranking. He may be the single most important prospect the Twins have right now. He was in line to be the #1 overall pick in the draft last year had he not been hurt. He's the 1 guy in the system with a real chance to be a true #1 starter. He's everything we've been asking for out of a Twins pitching prospect. But he hasn't thrown a pro pitch and may never be that guy again... There were good reports out of his time in instructs last year. I hope they're aiming more for a controlled 80-100 innings pitched than 60 this year. But he's the guy we need to cross our fingers and hope he hits his ceiling. He changes this whole franchise if he does.

For what it's worth, Keith Law has Salas #5 in the Twins system. Behind E Rod, Lee, Lewis, and Martin (in that order).

I get that you don't want to go further with the comparison. Because it's a terrible comparison if you have hope in Wallner, but don't like Gallo. You want to use Wallner's minor league numbers and compare them to Gallo's worst season in the majors. Yikes. The chances of Wallner ever making an all star team are miniscule. Gallo has made 2. You don't like Gallo striking out, but you're ok with Wallner having a 30+% K rate in the minors? Come on. And Wallner brings negative defensive value. Wallner is hoping and praying to be half the MLB player Gallo has been. Whether you like it or not.

Isn't the natural flip side of this that you can't support Wallner if you complain about Gallo?

Are the Twins philosophically opposed to stealing bases? Their minor league numbers don't look like it. And I'm not sure who in the majors should've been stealing more bases. I don't think they're philosophically opposed to it, I just don't think they've had major leaguers who can do it well enough to do it regularly. I can buy the Varland argument. Wallner makes sense being higher if you're more into certainty than ceiling (which is entirely fine). Don't know why Festa or Mercedes should be ahead of him, though. Festa is 3 years older than him at the same level (yes, Festa was better there, but 3 years is a lot). Mercedes hasn't even debuted in America so I really don't get the argument there. We should be thrilled if Mercedes is in A+ at 19 like Salas is.

I like the Polanco comp, and it'd be amazing if he reaches anywhere close to Polanco's career. I also see a lot of Brooks Lee in him. Even their swings look similar. Probably too big to stick at SS, but have the arm and general talent to move to 3B/2B and succeed. Good contact skills and pitch recognition, but questions on just how much power they'll develop. Salas with more speed at this point, though. If Salas ends this season in AA as a 20 year old it'd certainly be worthy of a top 10 system ranking, and even worthy of the top 3 or 4 system ranking Fangraphs appears to have for him. He's hard to rank in this list because we just have so much more knowledge about the other guys as we've been following them far more closely. 19 years old and holding his own in A+ is nothing to sneeze at, though. You're talking about only a handful of guys a year who do that. That's a legit prospect.

Another thing about discussions on the balanced schedule is that people tend to make it sound like all the games against the Royals and Tigers are turning into games against the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. We don't get to play the crappy teams in our division as much, but we get to play the crappy teams in other divisions more. The Athletic did a pretty nice deep dive into the new schedule last week, and the difference in strength of schedule is pretty minimal. Using last year's team records on the new schedule has the Guardians, Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres as the 4 teams with the most additional games against winning teams. The Guardians at 14, Dodgers 11, and Sox and Pads at 8 games. But the Guardians and Dodgers still rank in the top 5 easiest schedules with just a .007 increase in opponent winning percentage. The new schedule isn't nearly as dramatic as people are acting.

I like them playing the Astros and Yankees early. Get them out of the way early, and hopefully the team is healthy for the most part which will give them a fighters chance to win a few games against them. Play roughly .500 ball against those 2 clubs in April in addition to hopefully beating up on the Marlins, Nats, and Royals could put this team in a great place early. Not that that means a lot as we saw last year. But it's better than being in a terrible spot early. As terrible as it is to say, let's just get through April healthy and see where we're at.

I mean your stance is basically that no Rice pitchers should ever be drafted. I strongly disagree with the "Lewis in CF was a mistake stance." He was no longer rehabbing an ACL. He was fine. This idea that CF is somehow inherently dangerous is preposterous and based on no actual information (news flash: SS's put stress on their knees too, and even jump for balls sometimes!). Kirilloff's wrist seemed awfully ok when he was in AAA absolutely raking. You can't add Lewis or Kirilloff into the Paddack or Mahle trades. Nobody knew Dyson was injured so that's purely revisionist history to fit your narrative. They didn't bring Lewis and Kirilloff in knowing they had injury concerns. You're just taking injuries and saying the Twins should've known guys would get injured. Paddack and Mahle are entirely different than Lewis and Kirilloff. Even Canterino was different in that he threw 96, 94, and 99.1 innings in his 3 seasons at Rice. That shows an arm that can hold up, but wasn't ridiculous usage by a college pitcher by any means. Also, you've listed 6 guys in 7 years they've been in control. That's less than 1 per year, but somehow that's a "pattern of lack of awareness about injury and conditioning." That's literally what the article points out. Confirmation bias. You're going to have to do a whole lot more than point out 6 guys, 3 of which don't even remotely fit your attempted narrative, in 7 years before it's a pattern. "Seems" is the key word here. The Twins got hit hard by major league injuries last year, and to an extent in 2021. No arguing that didn't happen. But is their minor league system being hit harder than other team's, or does it just "seem" that way? And, no, I don't agree it's on the Twins to reset "unreasonable takes/narratives." Like I don't understand that in any way. "Hey, I'm being unreasonable, but you need to fix it, not me" is an unreasonable stance. It makes no sense at all. Nobody is saying you have to praise the Twins or the FO or pretend the team hasn't failed the last 2 seasons, and the last 2 decades in general in the postseason. But being reasonable about it is an option. It's also squarely, 100% impossible for the Minnesota Twins to reset the narrative of every fan. You're trying to claim the Twins ignore injuries and are mad about it. These pages are filled with other fans mad the Twins aren't clearing the way for Larnach and Kirilloff and Winder and Ober. It's literally impossible for the Twins to fit both of those narratives. But that's your unreasonable expectation. So, yeah, I'm going to say at least some of it is on fans putting a little more thought into things and not being unreasonable.

I follow that flawless explanation crystal clear! 😄 I do understand where you're coming from, and agree that I want information before I hand my money over for anything. Where we disagree is on what information is needed from a sports team before we feel like we have enough information. And that's completely ok. I don't need to know their plan for making the team better, or getting their players healthy. I just need to know what the roster is (I'm smart enough to know if the roster is good or bad), and that the players are healthy enough to play. Them telling me Buxton spent 3 hours with the trainer doing treatment I know nothing about that day doesn't change anything for my investment in their product that day, but knowing he's playing, and where, does. Them telling me the offseason plan is to sign players X, Y, and Z for certain salaries while trading player A for player B doesn't change anything for my investment in their product the upcoming season, but them actually acquiring players X, Y, and Z and trading player A for player B (and me feeling players X, Y, Z, and B are good) does. You, and clearly others as well, want to know more. And that's fine. There's probably a line somewhere between us that the team should be focused on to bring in as many fans as possible while not sharing more info than they have to. That's the great balancing act of every business with their consumers.

The quote about not being transparent was about civic leaders. But the Twins were also "transparent" about their offers to Correa. Certain fans want even more than that, though. That's what this current discussion is about. They want "the plan." The information "we" get will never be enough for some people. And that just is what it is. This "debate/conversation" will never end. Because there's no end to the amount of information certain fans think they're entitled to. Even if that information being made public would hinder their team's ability to be competitive they still want it released. They feel they deserve to know about all the behind the scenes stuff. So they'll continually ask for more and more. I just find that ridiculous.