chpettit19

Brutal. I liked the trade at the time, but it has not turned out well at all. Wouldn't be surprised if they tried to do a creative extension with him, but I don't know how quick I'd be about doing it. If Ober can stay healthy and throw 120+ innings (really big if) this year, and/or Varland continues to perform, and anyone from the SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Festa group show they're ready for a real shot next year there may not be room for Mahle coming off TJ next year. Lopez, Ryan, Paddack likely have rotation spots locked up for next year. If Varland and Ober claim the other 2 there's really no room for Mahle. If Gray is back on an extension, or accepting the QO, there's really, really no room for Mahle. Certainly would have an extension offer in my back pocket, but wouldn't be jumping on it too quickly. Give the young guys a chance to see if The Pipeline™ is ready to start flowing.

There was a really good article (I feel bad because I can't remember if it was by Gleeman or Hayes) at the beginning of the year about how Correa "tested" Popkins early to see if he was worthy. Lots of reports that Correa put in a good word on Popkins, through Boras, to Gallo, and Popkins was a large part of the reason Gallo signed here. Gordon gives Popkins a ton of credit for his breakout last year. These are just the reports/articles I remember. I don't think it's a question of respecting Popkins. Correa doesn't seem shy about letting the FO know what he thinks about anything. I'd guess if he didn't trust Popkins the FO would know and they'd have made a move over the offseason. Now, none of that means he's doing a good job right now (I don't know if he is or isn't), but I don't think it has anything to do with his age, or players being willing to accept his help. These guys have millions of dollars on the line, and they're not shy about voicing their opinions. If a coach isn't trusted in a clubhouse they're removed pretty quick.

There were multiple articles at the start of the season about the work Popkins did with Correa on his swing last year, the time he spent with Gallo over the offseason, and how the players really liked his ability to adapt to each individual player, and their specific body movements. I don't know near enough about the swing mechanics of these guys to know if it's a swing problem, or "simply" an approach problem that appears pretty clear to me, and I think many fans. The Twins have multiple hitting coaches. I don't know what all their specific roles are, and I'm generally against calling for people to lose their jobs, although I understand being a coach at the top level of any sport is typically a very short lived situation, unless you're great. From the outside, Popkins would seem to be the most likely scapegoat if the offense doesn't figure things out quickly. Is the internal expectation that Popkins is "just" the swing mechanics guy while other coaches are the approach guys? Is Popkins pushing for a different approach, but the players just don't agree? Is he pushing for a different approach, and the players just aren't good enough to execute it? Very hard, if not impossible, to judge any of that from the outside. But it likely doesn't matter as eventually it just comes down to the lineup performing or not. And for the last week+ it has been resoundingly not performing. I think, in general, the impact of coaches/managers in baseball is overstated. People are on these boards constantly asking for James Rowson to come back despite the teams he's been with since he left being the 2 worst scoring teams in baseball (Miami and Detroit). Hitting coaches aren't some magical wizards who can make bad hitters suddenly be good hitters. It's so hard to judge what's simply talent limitations, and what's coaching. But things are bad right now, and the expectations from the owners this season absolutely need to be a dominance of a terrible division, and playoff wins. I don't know if that's what the Pohlads are thinking, but it's what the fan base is thinking. And everyone from coaches to the FO should all be on the hot seat this year. It's make or break time, and they've been breaking for a week. They should all be feeling the pressure at this point. Edit to add: In fairness to Popkins, and the players, the Twins did score 46 runs in 8 games (5.75 runs/game), while scoring 6 or more in 6 of those 8 games, from April 23rd through April 30th. The week since has been atrocious. But they were very good for an equal amount of time not long ago.

I think Solano was always a place holder for Lewis. I don't think they ever expected him to be on the team for much, if any, of June. He's actually hitting the ball well (highest avg exit velo of his career), and has an xBA in the 89th percentile. He's basically been the same guy he has been for years, but he's hitting it at guys. I don't think he's long for the roster, though. I'll be surprised if he's still on the roster come June.

The offense could certainly use Arraez, but the team he's currently on has scored the fewest runs in baseball even with him hitting darn near .500. Mike Trout's teams never make the playoffs. Really shows how little 1 hitter impacts a team. A starting pitcher has significantly higher impact on those games he pitches every 5 days than a hitter has in any game they play. It's an interesting debate, but breaking it down to simply "every 5 days" vs "everyday" ignores the impact those players have on those individual games. Sandy Alcantara faced 886 batters last year. Marcus Semien had 724 PAs. Those were the league leaders. The difference then comes down to fielding. Fielders take the lead in plays impacted because of that, but if they're a bad fielder they're hurting the team by being involved so much on defense. It's a really interesting debate. Position players impact the team more over the course of the season, but it's not by much, and they're easier to find than impact pitching.

Nick's problem will always be his ability to lay off pitches he shouldn't swing at. League average chase rate is 28.4%. His is 39%. League average swing% is 47.1. His is 58.2%. Simply put, he swings too much. Same problem Miranda used to have, and seems to have again this season. When you'll swing at pitches you shouldn't pitchers have no reason to challenge you, and you see fewer and fewer good pitches to hit. Nick makes contact on 63% of the pitches he chases, but it's hard to hit those balls well. Same with Miranda. If either, or both, of them learn to be patient they could be really good players. Until then they'll continue to be inconsistent despite some stretches where they really pound the ball. Their careers hang on their swing decisions.

Yeah, I'm not saying right away, but long-term role. Right now the most likely immediate spot for him is looking like 3B unless Miranda gets himself straightened out before the end of the month.

James Rowson was let go by that offensive juggernaut known as the Miami Marlins over the offseason, and is now employed by the 2nd lowest scoring team (Miami is the lowest scoring team) the Detroit Tigers. But, to his credit, his team is currently striking out in .4% fewer PAs than the Twins.

It's going to be interesting to see what they do with Lewis. I'm a supporter of him being the new MAT, and starting in CF the majority of the time now that Buxton seems to be a long ways from being an everyday CFer. I think Lee is actually the one who takes 3B. Miranda may end up being the backup 1B/3B moving forward. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do with everyone.

Lewis is now in Wichita on a rehab assignment. He's playing SS and 3B to start, but they haven't ruled out the OF in the future. I'd think Miranda should be hearing footsteps at this point as Lewis started his rehab stint Saturday (if I'm remembering correctly) and only gets 20 days. So the Lewis decision will come before the end of May. I'd think if he's mashing, and playing everyday. by the end of the month, and Miranda is still swinging at everything, Miranda will be replaced by Lewis at 3B. Edit: I was wrong, they announced Sunday that he'll start his rehab on Thursday. So they have 20 days from Thursday which puts them at the last day of May if my math is correct.

Pull percentage is the number of balls he put in play that were pulled. It's nothing complicated, just breaking the field into 3 sections (pull, middle, oppo) and tracking where players hit the ball. His career numbers with his average at the bottom: There has absolutely been an attempt by him to go the opposite way, or back through the middle, more. I don't remember exactly when it became a big talking point, though. He's always been pull heavy (league average this year is 36.8 pull, 37.7 straight, 25.4 oppo), and likely always will be. His swing is just very stiff, and it ends up leading to a lot of popups, or grounders. I was just pointing out that he has by no means gotten away from attempting to go up the middle, or the other way, since 2019. It's interesting that his most pull heavy season was his best season, but I don't think anyone expects him to hit 30 homers a year again, so being as pull heavy now likely isn't a great option.

Kepler had a pull percentage of 50.8 in 2019. Highest of his career. He was at 42.6, 41.9, and 41.7 the last 3 seasons.

But my argument is Nick isn't good enough to do it. You disagree, and that's all good. Sano to RF is also an example of a player switching positions to get a better lineup. That's why I point out their difference in talent. I don't think Gordon at 3B is Sano in RF, but it's also not Mookie anywhere. That's why I don't like the comparison. I'm excited to see Kirilloff. I think him and Lewis are the keys to this team taking the next step. I fully expect Kirilloff to be a star. And I hope I'm wrong about Larnach to AAA being a fix. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I'm happy to have Alex back.

Larnach to AAA (don't like it), Kirilloff to MLB.

You said "much less of a defensive risk." I read that as Nick Gordon is a better infield defender than Mookie (Mookie was a 55 grade infielder coming up), and I'm not willing to say there's anything on a baseball field that Nick does better than Mookie. I'll take Mookie swinging left handed over Nick swinging left handed even! (Kidding. Mostly.) I pointed out Mookie taking infield just to point out that an argument that Nick's been playing it in recent years couldn't be used. Not to hold anything against Nick. Mookie has even played game innings in the infield the last few years. All I'm holding against Gordon is that he wasn't as good a fielder coming up, and hasn't been a great fielder since he's been in the majors. Mookie Betts has been. And Mookie was moved for players significantly better than the players that bounced Gordon. Yeah, I want filters of guys being moved from, and to, specific spots. A guy moving from CF to LF doesn't mean anything in the context of putting Gordon, or a similar player, at 3B. Guys move. I'm not denying that. But a guy moving from 2B to LF doesn't have any baring on guys moving from 2B/LF/CF to 3B. I don't think the list of guys who match Gordon's profile being moved to 3B would be long, or impressive. I don't think you think that, but when you compare Mookie and Gordon as both "multi-positional" and leave it at that you're missing a whole truck load of context. Solano is "multi-positional," but I'm pretty sure neither of us want him on the left side of the infield. And at this point the team just expects me to drink beer and keep book. Or provide a good laugh by trying to hit a HR. 😄 I think Gordon at 3B for any more than 3 games in a season would be a bad situation. If that's all you're suggesting as "occasionally" then we can agree. I don't think you're crazy for wanting to try him at 3B occasionally, or prioritizing a bat over a glove, but I have a different balance on the bat vs glove scale, and/or a differing opinion on what certain players are capable of. But if we all agreed I'd have to do work at work all day instead of having debates on the internet, and that doesn't sound like fun.

Will be interesting to watch how he throws against all the Cleveland lefties tonight. I didn't know he had such big splits so that's interesting info. The Guardians have 5 guys who'll bat lefty against him tonight. The innings limit is going to be interesting to watch them navigate this season. If he breaks down again his career as a starter is likely over. But if he can get to 120+ innings this year they'll have some decisions to make for next year. He's an interesting case.

I hope you can understand why I will not accept comparing Nick Gordon to a first ballot HOFer in any way. I hope you can understand why I will not accept suggesting Nick Gordon is better, let alone "much" better, at anything on a baseball field than Mookie Betts. Mookie Betts has been one of the 10 best defenders (and overall players) in baseball for a decade. It wasn't a secret that they were moving Gordon because of defensive concerns. Mookie didn't move because he couldn't play mIF, he was moved because the Red Sox had 2 all stars up the middle already, and he didn't move back because he's a multi-time gold glove winner in RF and there was no need on his teams for him to move. Mookie Betts is faster, has better hands, and a better arm than Nick Gordon. Gordon is not only not "much less of a defensive risk" than Mookie, he's much more of a defensive risk, and it's not even close. Nick Gordon has spent his career struggling to stay on a mediocre MLB roster. Mookie Betts is a first ballot HOFer. They're not the same. I'd love to see a list of guys who moved to LF and 2B because of arm concerns who then moved to 3B. It'd be a fascinating list. There's a difference in their ability to be multi-positional. I've played OF in softball in recent years, but I wasn't good at it. I'm technically "multi-positional," (since I'm normally an IFer) but it doesn't mean you should use me in the OF. You say "if it's a problem, fix it then" as if they're going into it completely blind. They know Nick's capabilities. He's not some random guy off the streets. They've watched him play 4599 innings of SS. They know if he can handle 3B. There's a reason he's only played 23 innings of it in his career. I'm all for flexibility, and having versatile pieces you can move around. But putting guys in spots they can't play (Gordon at 3B, Gallo or Kepler in CF) on anything other than an emergency basis doesn't win you more ball games. We weigh defense differently, clearly, so simply won't agree on this. I have no desire to have a White Sox style defense. It loses games. It's lost them multiple games to the Twins alone this year. I don't think Solano is the problem, but I'm not interested in corner defenders who are defensive liabilities and only hit on the short side of a platoon (same reason I don't like when they have Garlick on the roster). He was great for the Twins early, and I have no problem with Solano. He can put the bat on the ball with the best of them. But he's not very important when it comes to the Twins maximizing their win total this year. Miranda and Larnach are, or at least could/should be. Larnach can't adjust to major league pitching in AAA. Either he's going to figure it out, or he isn't. Having him mash AAA pitching and then coming back still needing to adjust to major league pitching doesn't help the team. If I were in charge, he'd have until next week when Kirilloff can be called up to start showing signs of life or I'd put him on the bench as a pinch hitter/part time player and give Kirilloff his ABs. To get Kirilloff on the team you have to remove someone. Castro is going to go for Farmer, I'd expect, and that leaves just Solano for Kirilloff. If Larnach hasn't figured it out by the time Lewis is ready then I'll send him down, and at that point his future with the team is in question as he's 26, has known struggles hitting major league breaking stuff, and they have multiple other lefty bats pushing for playing time. I'm simply not interested in Larnach's ability to hit AAA pitching. He has to adjust to major league pitching, and it's now a question of how long of a leash he has before he starts getting passed up by other players. Right now Kirilloff is his nearest competition. I'm not a big Wallner believe, but he's closing in fast, too.

Why is Nick Gordon much less of a defensive risk? Mookie Betts came up as an infielder and moved to RF because of Pedroia. He's continued taking ground balls in fielding practice his whole career. Nick Gordon has fewer than 300 more IF innings in the majors than Mookie. Mookie is a terrible example, and he's superior to Nick Gordon in every way, even on paper. Is occasional once a week? Once a month? Everyday for a 2 week Miranda demotion? 3 times during a 2 week Miranda demotion? 3 times a week for the rest of the season to rotate everyone through? Occasionally has a pretty big range of what it could mean. I wouldn't send Miranda down to AAA to get Kirilloff in the lineup. I'd consider DFAing Solano to get Kirilloff up maybe. I'm not happy with the current production from Miranda or Larnach, but I don't think either of them would be served well from a demotion. They need to figure out major league pitching. Can't do that in AAA. They've graduated and they need to make the major league adjustment. But Farmer taking some time from Miranda at 3B starting next week, and Kirilloff taking some time from Larnach in LF starting next week would be a plan I'd endorse. Neither of which include Gordon at 3B, even "occasionally."

I'll start by just saying let's not compare Nick Gordon, or anyone on the Twins, to Mookie Betts. As for the general idea here, there's a lot of variables at play. Do they have someone capable of taking over at SS fulltime on the ML roster already? It's not necessarily always position to position considerations (this article is), but it's an ever changing puzzle and you need to make sure the pieces fit. The definition of "occasionally" also factors in. Could Nick have chosen to present some situations that would be moving guys to positions they don't currently play? Sure. But that's pretty rarely done (unless you have a Mookie Betts) outside of injuries forcing it. Especially up the middle. There are limitations to what players can reasonably do. Correa goes down and you can't just plug Buxton into SS (full disclosure I've never seen Buxton field a grounder in the IF, but I assume he's not good enough to play SS in the bigs). So it's not just straight 26-man spot for 26-man spot, either. The Twins are full of guys who can't play up the middle.

Maturing before TD's very eyes.

If Miranda swings at 3 more balls over his head even though every living creature on the planet knows it's coming I'll be ready to put Gordon (or Gallo) at 3B fulltime!

Miranda is becoming pretty worrisome for me. I didn't watch him at all before his big breakout, but the story was always that he was a free swinger, and it crippled his numbers. He fixed that and took off. But he sure looks to be back to his old ways. It's not even a secret anymore that once he gets 2 strikes on him they're throwing a fastball about 3 feet above the zone. He's going to have to stop swinging at it or Lewis/Lee is coming for his job much sooner than anyone was expecting. To tie this back to the topic of Larnach, they're both going to start feeling the pressure pretty quick as Kirilloff and Lewis return. Miranda has a little more cushion, but he'll run the risk of losing ABs vs lefties to Farmer soon. But it is really nice to have depth so they can make decisions based on performance more than just "well he's all we've got." I believe in both of them, but Larnach especially is running out of time.

He looks like he's trying to sit on off-speed now, and it's causing him to miss the fastballs he used to crush. That's a really bad combination when he's still struggling to hit off-speed. He's trying to make an adjustment, and that's what we should be expecting, but the Twins have finally gathered some depth so they likely won't be as patient with adjustments as they would've in the future. Nice for the team overall, but tough for individual players. Gordon seems to be figuring out his adjustment to take himself off the hot seat, and now it's Larnach who needs to get his straightened out, or he'll be making that adjustment in AAA. The bigger problem is that AAA pitchers may not be good enough for him to truly make the adjustment, and when he comes back he'll likely still have a major league adjustment to make and he'll still likely not have a lot of time to make it.

I'm confused. Do you want them paying attention to what's happening on the field or not? Because that's what's on those tablets. They're watching their previous at bats, and videos of the pitcher's pitches. Would you prefer they're on the railing watching the pitcher from the side where they don't get an idea of how the ball really breaks or watching video on the tablet that shows them what the ball is actually doing? Would you rather them just do mental reps, or mental reps with the actual footage of the actual pitches they got, and their actual swings? The Twins not using those tablets would put them at a drastic disadvantage in 2023.

I'm all for finding some .900 OPS guys. You're talking a top 10-20 hitter in baseball. I, unfortunately, don't think the Twins are sitting on any surprise top 10 bats, though. Buxton is their best bet, but his body doesn't seem to want to let him be a full season top 10 guy if he also plays in the field. If Wallner is sufficient depth I'd be good with moving Kepler now for a lottery ticket (maybe Yanks want him with all their injuries?) to get Kirilloff up. But I'm not willing to destroy their defense by running Kepler or Gallo in CF. We'll see what the FO is willing to do to get him up here.