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South Dakota Tom

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Everything posted by South Dakota Tom

  1. South Dakota Tom
    The delay is not fatal, but there's no pretending it doesn't impact the Twins. I will use Luzardo as an example - the Marlins might actually like a package that the Twins are offering, but they certainly do not know if that's the best possible offer they will receive. And they won't know until Snell and Montgomery have signed, and teams with starting pitching needs who don't sign those two players pivot to the trade market. Same is true of Chapman - not that he's on the Twins' radar, but teams won't put out their highest offer for, say, Polanco or Farmer or Julien or Lee (not suggesting that we trade any of those guys, but the point remains) until one team snags Chapman and the others are left with holes in their (ideal) lineup. That doesn't prohibit trades, as we've seen, but it does impact the speed and urgency of the market. The shoes are dropping, and the Twins have been (frustratingly, but appropriately) patient. I know in my bones that they have scenarios played out in their inner circle that "if A goes to B, then C will give us D for our E" in multiple, multiple variables for most of our players. Just as cases settle the closer you get to the courthouse steps, so too will this play out. One just needs to be prepared and ready to go to trial/preseason in order to extract the most value and strike at the right time. I do have confidence in this FO to do that and am excited to see how it plays out. Excited, too, (off-topic) that I'm headed to the Cities this weekend for Meltdown! You folks at TD do a great job, and I will be happy to meet you all.
  2. South Dakota Tom
    I think the status quo lineup, with Polanco as DH, leaves 4 bench spots, 3 of which are taken by Vazquez, Farmer, and Castro. That leaves 1 spot for Larnach, Gordon, Martin, or Miranda. Yes, I think there will be a trade of at least one of those 16, and absent picking up another ML fielder, that still leaves those 4 to battle in spring, now potentially for more than one spot. This team has demonstrated over time that the player(s) without options are the incumbents, with all the advantages that entails.
  3. South Dakota Tom
    I understand the premise but don’t see the same result. 32 starts equals 1/5 of the season. As you suggest there is often an off day in the week so pitchers have 5 days between starts. Having 6 days and six starters means any short start puts way more pressure on a (now person-limited) bullpen. The Twins have a limited stock of starters (none of whom have options, typically). The way to keep them fresh is to rotate relievers to suck up innings and use 6th/7th starters to give the main five a respite, as needed. If we had all AAAA pitchers starting games, then yes - use them as the malleable portion of your staff. This team isn’t built that way.
  4. South Dakota Tom
    It's dominoes for sure for Austin Martin. Projecting a starting 9 of Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler + DH (let's say Polanco) leaves 4 spots for fielders. That's Vazquez, Castro, Farmer, plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda. If one of those players is traded (and the likeliest are Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez, but if it is catcher, we'd need to add a catcher), then we'd add the second of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, and if it is two of them, then all 3 of those guys (you know, barring the acquisition of a major-league position player) are on the opening day roster. A high ceiling, but I'd rather have Martin for 10 cents on the dollar versus Kiermeier and put the dollars and/or minor league depth into controllable pitching. Same as the return I'd like to get from trading any of the aforementioned candidates.
  5. South Dakota Tom
    I tend to think that 4.5 pretty good years and .5 bad years = 90% pretty good. Especially when that last half was going from stability (albeit in a toxic environment, by all accounts) to the mess that was the Angels, to trying to be a savior in Cleveland, all while going through personal turmoil in your private life. The bad half year says that Giolito is probably more likely to take a 1-year deal and bet on himself, but if the price has gone down to a $12M AAV, I think that's a pretty good 3-year get and sends the message to him that we believe in him and think that if he joins this team, he'll be a solid core piece now through age 32. Also sets up some multi-year rotation stability, which we haven't had in a long, long time (nor has most any other team, for that matter). Almost any new acquisition (and in reading through the Athletic's list of needs for each team, I think "starting pitcher" showed up in almost all of them, and 3 times for St. Louis), the trade market is going to be tough to mine. The free agent pitchers do have some other candidates (I'm less enthused about Snell due to the unsustainable strand rate and walks, as well as the Cy-bonus he'll get), but would be happy with two from the tier of Stroman, Maeda, Ryu, Wacha, E Rodriguez and him. I'd like to have 7 SPs ahead of Raya/Festa/Sands/Winder/Balazovic/SWR/Canterino. So that means 2 guys more than Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddock, Varland. The system that seems to work best for this team is to get one (via trade or free agency) soon, and one more who drops through the cracks until February or March.
  6. South Dakota Tom
    Not disagreeing but with the “3 batters or end an inning” rule you need fewer relievers. Plus with the 2nd round starting on Saturday, all relievers get at least 1 day off so any of them (other than a long guy or starter) could pitch all 3 games. I do worry about the LH opener or RH opener if Rocco subs out 3 hitters in the early innings. Would be nice to have a Larnach or Luplow to cycle back to when they go LRL or RLR for a couple innings each. Maybe best just to smoke them tomorrow!
  7. South Dakota Tom
    Lots of valid points. I think he will 100% be on the playoff roster- maybe last man on the bench but runs, takes walks, plays defense, great arm, and there is that sugar plum belief that he will change the scoreboard in late innings that they want as an option.
  8. South Dakota Tom
    In light of rumblings about roster decisions, I tried to put together a playoff roster. Here’s to wishful thinking. 3-game: Lopez, Gray, Maeda; BP: Ryan (emergency starter, or if someone gets shelled); Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Flolo, Pagan, Varland, Funderburk. Starting 9: Jeffers, Kiriloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Waller, Buxton, Kepler, Julien. Bench: Vazquez, Castro, Taylor, Gallo, Martin and Solano. Leaves off: Sands, Winder, Balazovic, Farmer, Luplow, Kuechel, Ober. Longer series - add Ober or Ryan as 4th starter, other to BP, guess between Solano/Farmer (1) and Gallo/Taylor/Martin (2). I agree with coach that it isn’t time for Varland to the bullpen yet as we might have starters go down or need to reduce innings. I just don’t believe that going from starter to reliever (purely in terms of ability, not preparation) is too much to ask. So he can BP for a late week or two in the season. Don’t think they will jettison Gallo, and I said something about him changing game outcomes earlier in the spring, so sticking with that. Does change the dynamic of this team to supplant Balazovic, Sands, Winder with Ryan, Funderburk, Varland. Also big speed with Martin, Buxton?, Taylor, Castro. Suddenly this team tough 1-9 with solid starters and a bench of defense, speed and potential power. Teams have won with worse (my new mantra!).
  9. South Dakota Tom
    The calculus is whether Gray can bring back more than: a) a solid shot at the playoffs in 2023, and he'd pitch playoff game(s) for us; and b) a pretty reasonable draft pick next year; and c) the perception that the team isn't tanking on its fans. That is a hard offer to top.
  10. South Dakota Tom
    I see Pittsburgh taking Crews, then Washington taking Skenes. Clark is the helium pick at 3; then we're down to Langford or Jenkins, and 4 won't let Langford slide any lower. I think this is the pick we get, unless we have eyes on something other than pba.
  11. South Dakota Tom
    It’s going to be a Gray May Day in LA today. Hoping for a series win!
  12. South Dakota Tom
    One of the great things about baseball is how human it is. Players, umps, all make mistakes, and that is part of the game. We can all recall situations in which a team will (forever) claim "we was robbed!" because of a close call on a ball/strike or safe/out decision. I like that frailty, that lack of certainty. Bad calls can fire up a team, change the momentum of the game, get the crowd engaged. Imperfect, sure, but aren't we all? Isn't that life?
  13. South Dakota Tom
    Should they be worried about burning options on any of them? They should expect Winder to come up at some point and don’t the others have them all remaining?
  14. South Dakota Tom
    You have to start with the 40-man slots, so Headrick and Winder. That 13th pitcher slot is valuable, but I don't want to expose anyone to waivers to use it if we don't have to.
  15. South Dakota Tom
    My favorite Karnak - Johnny/Karnak says “Catch 22” and tears open the envelope to reveal the question: “What would the Dodgers do if you hit them 100 fly balls?” (Must have been their down years)….
  16. South Dakota Tom
    I'll take a backward approach to this, as it seems that the bench will be Solano, Farmer, Taylor and Jeffers against RH pitchers, and Kiriloff, Gordon, Vazquez and Kepler/Gallo against LH pitchers. Variety will ensue, but putting the strongest defensive lineup together would probably have Solano or Farmer as DH and the other as 1B against lefties, and Kepler/Gallo/Gordon (whichever isn't playing a corner that day) against righties. Polanco can DH and be rested with Farmer or Solano taking his spot, primarily against lefties; Taylor can spell Byron on days he is DH (or an all LH outfield of Kepler, Gallo, Gordon). Farmer plays 3B and Miranda DHs. Vazquez will get a few DH spots. Ultimately, I see Gordon, Farmer, and Buxton as the most-common DHs the way this lines up, but it will be a potpourri.
  17. South Dakota Tom
    Gallo belongs in that list as a candidate for top half of the order (whether that's leading off or clean-up in some situations, he makes runs happen). So does Gordon, or Farmer when he starts games versus LH pitchers. Feels like versatility and depth to me. I see so much talent (with all the normal caveats), just excited for this time of year and the hope I have for this team.
  18. South Dakota Tom
    Two posts in one day is a lot for me, and I think the OP has the right approach, but should take sequence into account. Really, if we keep Urshela, then we probably don't get Farmer (remember when Urshela was our Plan B at SS?), and if we don't get Farmer, we wouldn't have stayed in the Correa sweepstakes as long, and Miranda is probably 1B, and then Kiriloff is LF, and I don't know what we do with Arraez. Miranda at third maximizes our team if he can handle the position, and if he can't we have Farmer to cover it, and possibly Gordon. Miranda at third allows Larnach to be a primary DH (not necessarily the primary DH), and our adds in the outfield give us depth, flexibility, and a potential all-world defensive 7-9. As an aside, just scrolling through mlb.com team page for the Twins, and Miranda shows up on the depth chart as the starting 3B, 1B, and DH, so I like our options at 1B (Kiriloff, Gallo) and DH (anyone) better than thinning our team by playing Miranda anywhere but third.
  19. South Dakota Tom
    Range will matter more at 2B for Polanco than arm strength. It's a short throw, and now that infielders are prohibited from starting in the outfield grass, it should (almost) never be a long throw. The ball should get to him quicker as well since he's closer to home plate, so lateral movement will determine a lot more this year in terms of a player's ability to cover his position. Same is probably true for Miranda at 3B, though it would be rare (other than a 3B playing fundamentally a deep short) for him to start too deep to field and throw out anyone other than on a slow-roller. That first-step lateral quickness, quick reads on ball angles, and a quick release - as you mentioned in the article - will dictate outs more than pure strength of arm. And avoiding errors. And fly-ball pitchers.
  20. South Dakota Tom
    This was a very well-though-out article, and while some adjustments might be made (as suggested above), I think yours is a solid starting point. Will Joey hit? Will we add a RH slugger anywhere? The next extension of this is a "who do we bring up if X is injured?" - If Buxton (RH OF), I think it's Garlick. If LH OF, I think it's Wallner. If it's the right side of the infield, right now I'd say Julien. If it is the left side of the infield, either Farmer slides into the everyday 3B/SS role, and we add Julien, but maybe there's a spot for Martin (Lee) (Lewis). I don't know who they would consider the 3rd catcher, but glad they have some names at AAA to chose from.
  21. South Dakota Tom
    I believe that it is more important to have at least 2 open slots in your bullpen not committed to veteran mlb contracts than any single pitcher still available (though I understand the argument for Chafin). We will want/need to rotate the middle or long-relievers to create a couple of extra spots on the 26-man. Creatively done, you can stretch your roster to well over 30 without waiting for injury. Don't believe we will add a RH power bat to back up anything. No offense to CJ Cron, Gurriel, or Luke Voit, or others, but if Larnach or Kiriloff injuries are your concern, that's why you have Gordon, Farmer, Taylor, and hoping to give Julien an opening. One cannot simultaneously request that we play the young guns and also advocate for filling the lineup with anchor contracts. I also look at the 3 pending free agent starters and am reminded of a line from Step Brothers (which I'll paraphrase and change the names) - instead of Oprah, Hillary, Barbara Walters, we use Maeda, Mahle, Gray and say "sleep with one, marry one, kill one." I think we stick with Kenta for the season and then let him walk, trade high on Sonny Gray if we're not directly aiming at the World Series as I think his value will be great for a number of borderline teams, and extend Mahle, but that's just a guess..... We will have Paddock, Lopez, (resigned Mahle?), Ryan and an opening for any one of a number of potential starters.
  22. South Dakota Tom
    I do like it when people quote The Incredibles, Matt.
  23. South Dakota Tom
    I can't vouch for where Miguel is, physically and emotionally, and his production depends in no small part on his energy, commitment, and effort. That being said, I am a bigger fan of his than most on here. He has carried this team for weeks-long stretches in the past, and is more than capable of doing the same again. His periods of greatest productivity, it seems to me, came amidst a team-wide boon. He is not someone who a team can hide well in a lineup of underproducing batsmen. However, when placed before/after hitters in a stronger lineup, where they cannot afford to nibble at him (cue the visual of him missing a low outside curve by a solid foot), he has shown prodigious power and enough of a keen eye to be dangerous. If you can stomach the strikeouts, he's a walking .800 OPS/30+ HR guy. To me, in 2023, he is a potential early-season possibility. The team needs RH power (check) and doesn't have a set DH against lefties. IF (and only if) the team trades Kepler, thereby moving Kiriloff to full-time 1B, Larnach/Gordon to LF, and does not bring up Julien right away (which would be great if he earned it, but admittedly a long shot), we would have a bench/DH of Jeffers, Farmer, Celestino, Gordon/Larnach. I could see Miguel in the 6-hole. That might not last forever, especially if he struggles or is not in shape (and that ship may already have sailed), but as a bridge until Julien/Lewis/Lee is ready, it's not the worst option. Yes, I would rather have Kepler/Buxton/Gallo in the outfield and use Farmer, Vazquez, or Larnach as a DH. But if we get value for Kep and want to clear space for other outfielders, he is a buy-low candidate.
  24. South Dakota Tom
    Big swing here, but is there one way to keep Polanco and Arraez and still get two pitchers? - we would give the Marlins Kepler and Brooks Lee and get back Luzardo and Cabrera. I know losing Lee hurts, but he is one of 4 SS/IF prospects, and with Farmer and Royce Lewis and Martin and Julien and the current infield, he is (in a weird way) almost expendable. Four years of control over Luzardo and Cabrera, Marlins get a potential stud and a valuable LH outfielder for something that is surplus to them (with their current rotation plus Eury and Max Meyer).
  25. South Dakota Tom
    It isn't hard to disagree with the premise, either (though, of course, respectfully....). We improved at catcher (Vazquez over Gary Sanchez), 1B (Arraez over Sano), 2B is the same, SS is the same, 3B is Miranda over Urshela, utility is Farmer over Gordon. OF - Kiriloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, versus Buxton, Gordon, Kepler (prob gone), Larnach, Kiriloff, Gallo. Our depth, both infield and outfield, is better. SP - Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober is better than Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddock, Ryan; in 2022, Ober, Winder was your fall-back, this year, we have Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddock down the road (plus, of course, the starter we get from Miami!). RP - Duffy, Pagan, Joe Smith, Thielbar, Cotton, Duran, Coloumbe, Romero versus Duran, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, Pagan, Jax, Henriquez, Moran. And the irrefutable argument that last year we got injured and played poorly, and this year, we just don't yet know!
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