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South Dakota Tom

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Everything posted by South Dakota Tom

  1. South Dakota Tom
    I believe if the Twins do trade pitching, it might come from attaching one of the minor-league arms to existing contracts to get back a league-ready position player. That means depleting the Soto, Raya, Prielipp, Morris, Culpepper pipeline in some form. I'm thinking of someone like Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers - a package around Duran and one of the above pitchers might be in the ballpark. Packaging a Tanner Schobel or Brandon Winokur with Vazquez for salary relief, sign a RH 1b/corner who is in the $4-6M range on a one-year deal, Paddack for a flyer or reliever, and you haven't emptied the tank but still brought the budget back to that seemingly-written-in-Sharpie $130M figure.
  2. South Dakota Tom
    The key to having a strong 8-man bullpen is to have a 12-man bullpen. Because the team is using a short leash on starters (across baseball), your team needs more than 8 guys to fill in the remaining innings. The only way to accomplish that is to have at least 4 members of your bullpen be guys that have options and can be rotated up and back from St. Paul (even 2 or 3 would be better). How many times last year were we stuck with a guy that was signed to a guaranteed contract where our only option was to release him or play him? I'm not staring at a list of players with options remaining, but that's where we need to look, within our own organization. If we can rotate the Canterino, Funderburk, Varland, Henriquez, Winder, Alcala (as well as potential future starters getting their feet wet in a stretch role) contingent and keep Jax, Duran, Sands, Topa and Stewart utilized in a reasonable manner, you can build a pen. It is when you have no flexibility and a bullpen usage chart (a feature of the daily rundown I really appreciate) that is littered with red and yellow and the only fresh arms are guys you don't want to pitch leverage innings that you are in a corner. It's going to happen regardless at points in the season, but the knowledge that if you have to pitch a guy 3 innings on Tuesday to clean up a game that you can have a fresh arm from across the river for the next night.....that keeps a gutter from becoming a gully.
  3. South Dakota Tom
    There is another point on this topic (maybe even a separate thread, but I'm going to piggyback on this instead). In almost all sports at all times, playing 1 versus 16 (NCAA); 1 versus 8 (NBA, NHL) makes perfect sense. In baseball, however, we always give the #3 ranking to the division winner with the lowest win percentage. I'm not going to back this up with a bunch of stats, but it does strike me that this creates an unfair imbalance, and is at the heart of the OP's point: As the #1 seed, you will play the winner of 4 versus 5, which are the two best wild-card teams (and you will often find that the #4 seed and the #1 seed can easily - though not mandatory - come from the same division). On the other side of the bracket, the worst division winner plays against the worst wild-card team, with the winner now playing the 2nd-worst division winner (also 2nd-best, I get that). My point is simply that in my opinion, given the more-balanced schedules, the #4 seed is often better than the #3 seed in the current system. This year, that just means is Baltimore/New York better than Houston? In most years, is the #1 wild card team better than the division winner with the worst record? Not sure there's a fix for this - it wouldn't be fair just to base it on W-L percentage with no accord for division, because some divisions are going to beat up on each other and other divisions will have two strong teams and 3 weak ones, and it wouldn't be fair for them to be ranked higher for playoff seeding. But what about the 1 seed getting to choose which 3-6, 4-5 winner to play? Either to avoid a team in your own division who knows you too well, or to take advantage of the fact that the #6 seed upset the #3? Or because one first-round series went 3 games instead of 2, and they want to play the team who has burned 3 starters. Seems in a weird way that being the #2 seed is an advantage over being #1 under the current system, and no one would say that if #1 got to choose....thoughts?
  4. South Dakota Tom
    I admit I don’t know what rehab from this surgery looks like but the Twins should know better than anyone whether he’s doing the work. That, to me, is the tipping point. is he doing everything in his power to be effective or is he hoping to milk one more middling contract out of some unsuspecting club?
  5. South Dakota Tom
    So I get using Varland Friday with Ober as he’s 27th man. Does Festa pitch Saturday then and SWR on Sunday? Push Lopez back to Monday against the Royals….we still need a starter for Tuesday before getting back to regular rest (assuming, I guess, that Joe will miss a turn). Votes? Bullpen game seems like a stretch looking at the usage chart above.
  6. South Dakota Tom
    Coming from Sioux Falls to see the Saints play tomorrow night- excited to see Zebby is toeing the rubber. Heck, good day to see pitchers throughout the system tomorrow.
  7. South Dakota Tom
    The question in the original post about adding players (especially a strong starter) leads me to believe that they won’t spend big for a rental. They might, however, dip more heavily into their prospect capital for an arb-1 arm or something more $-controlled. It is spending the future rather than money but seems more plausible to have them give up a Rodriguez, Keaschall, Morris, Raya, Matthews, Prielipp type package (not all, but that level of player) to add that young 3rd starter with some years left. Not sure that is wise but seems more likely than Snell or Scherzer.
  8. South Dakota Tom
    Do we have any idea when Brooks Lee might be ready? If only, this might have been his opening.
  9. South Dakota Tom
    Getting a solid ML player for $4M that is coming off a couple of mediocre seasons marred by knee injuries who makes contact as a 4th OF is a good get. He’s RH. Plays all 3 spots. Can play CF everyday if needed (assuming his knees are better). We have 5 solid big leaguers as bench/DH with lots of flexibility in the roster to mix and match and give days off with minimal decline in team production. I do get the arguments about blocking prospects but don’t see any of them as mandatory adds right out of the gate. I think 1-13 this is a great mix of young and old, multi-positional ball players with great upside and an improved baseline. This team stays healthy and they are rock solid on the position player side. Other than “Martin comes up and shoves from day one” I haven’t read a post claiming a better deal than MMargot to fill this hole for that money.
  10. South Dakota Tom
    "Jerry and Marge go Large" with Bryan Cranston, Annette Benning, and Rainn Wilson. It's on Amazon, Roku, and Paramount+.
  11. South Dakota Tom
    The delay is not fatal, but there's no pretending it doesn't impact the Twins. I will use Luzardo as an example - the Marlins might actually like a package that the Twins are offering, but they certainly do not know if that's the best possible offer they will receive. And they won't know until Snell and Montgomery have signed, and teams with starting pitching needs who don't sign those two players pivot to the trade market. Same is true of Chapman - not that he's on the Twins' radar, but teams won't put out their highest offer for, say, Polanco or Farmer or Julien or Lee (not suggesting that we trade any of those guys, but the point remains) until one team snags Chapman and the others are left with holes in their (ideal) lineup. That doesn't prohibit trades, as we've seen, but it does impact the speed and urgency of the market. The shoes are dropping, and the Twins have been (frustratingly, but appropriately) patient. I know in my bones that they have scenarios played out in their inner circle that "if A goes to B, then C will give us D for our E" in multiple, multiple variables for most of our players. Just as cases settle the closer you get to the courthouse steps, so too will this play out. One just needs to be prepared and ready to go to trial/preseason in order to extract the most value and strike at the right time. I do have confidence in this FO to do that and am excited to see how it plays out. Excited, too, (off-topic) that I'm headed to the Cities this weekend for Meltdown! You folks at TD do a great job, and I will be happy to meet you all.
  12. South Dakota Tom
    I think the status quo lineup, with Polanco as DH, leaves 4 bench spots, 3 of which are taken by Vazquez, Farmer, and Castro. That leaves 1 spot for Larnach, Gordon, Martin, or Miranda. Yes, I think there will be a trade of at least one of those 16, and absent picking up another ML fielder, that still leaves those 4 to battle in spring, now potentially for more than one spot. This team has demonstrated over time that the player(s) without options are the incumbents, with all the advantages that entails.
  13. South Dakota Tom
    I understand the premise but don’t see the same result. 32 starts equals 1/5 of the season. As you suggest there is often an off day in the week so pitchers have 5 days between starts. Having 6 days and six starters means any short start puts way more pressure on a (now person-limited) bullpen. The Twins have a limited stock of starters (none of whom have options, typically). The way to keep them fresh is to rotate relievers to suck up innings and use 6th/7th starters to give the main five a respite, as needed. If we had all AAAA pitchers starting games, then yes - use them as the malleable portion of your staff. This team isn’t built that way.
  14. South Dakota Tom
    It's dominoes for sure for Austin Martin. Projecting a starting 9 of Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler + DH (let's say Polanco) leaves 4 spots for fielders. That's Vazquez, Castro, Farmer, plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda. If one of those players is traded (and the likeliest are Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez, but if it is catcher, we'd need to add a catcher), then we'd add the second of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, and if it is two of them, then all 3 of those guys (you know, barring the acquisition of a major-league position player) are on the opening day roster. A high ceiling, but I'd rather have Martin for 10 cents on the dollar versus Kiermeier and put the dollars and/or minor league depth into controllable pitching. Same as the return I'd like to get from trading any of the aforementioned candidates.
  15. South Dakota Tom
    I tend to think that 4.5 pretty good years and .5 bad years = 90% pretty good. Especially when that last half was going from stability (albeit in a toxic environment, by all accounts) to the mess that was the Angels, to trying to be a savior in Cleveland, all while going through personal turmoil in your private life. The bad half year says that Giolito is probably more likely to take a 1-year deal and bet on himself, but if the price has gone down to a $12M AAV, I think that's a pretty good 3-year get and sends the message to him that we believe in him and think that if he joins this team, he'll be a solid core piece now through age 32. Also sets up some multi-year rotation stability, which we haven't had in a long, long time (nor has most any other team, for that matter). Almost any new acquisition (and in reading through the Athletic's list of needs for each team, I think "starting pitcher" showed up in almost all of them, and 3 times for St. Louis), the trade market is going to be tough to mine. The free agent pitchers do have some other candidates (I'm less enthused about Snell due to the unsustainable strand rate and walks, as well as the Cy-bonus he'll get), but would be happy with two from the tier of Stroman, Maeda, Ryu, Wacha, E Rodriguez and him. I'd like to have 7 SPs ahead of Raya/Festa/Sands/Winder/Balazovic/SWR/Canterino. So that means 2 guys more than Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddock, Varland. The system that seems to work best for this team is to get one (via trade or free agency) soon, and one more who drops through the cracks until February or March.
  16. South Dakota Tom
    Not disagreeing but with the “3 batters or end an inning” rule you need fewer relievers. Plus with the 2nd round starting on Saturday, all relievers get at least 1 day off so any of them (other than a long guy or starter) could pitch all 3 games. I do worry about the LH opener or RH opener if Rocco subs out 3 hitters in the early innings. Would be nice to have a Larnach or Luplow to cycle back to when they go LRL or RLR for a couple innings each. Maybe best just to smoke them tomorrow!
  17. South Dakota Tom
    Lots of valid points. I think he will 100% be on the playoff roster- maybe last man on the bench but runs, takes walks, plays defense, great arm, and there is that sugar plum belief that he will change the scoreboard in late innings that they want as an option.
  18. South Dakota Tom
    In light of rumblings about roster decisions, I tried to put together a playoff roster. Here’s to wishful thinking. 3-game: Lopez, Gray, Maeda; BP: Ryan (emergency starter, or if someone gets shelled); Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Flolo, Pagan, Varland, Funderburk. Starting 9: Jeffers, Kiriloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Waller, Buxton, Kepler, Julien. Bench: Vazquez, Castro, Taylor, Gallo, Martin and Solano. Leaves off: Sands, Winder, Balazovic, Farmer, Luplow, Kuechel, Ober. Longer series - add Ober or Ryan as 4th starter, other to BP, guess between Solano/Farmer (1) and Gallo/Taylor/Martin (2). I agree with coach that it isn’t time for Varland to the bullpen yet as we might have starters go down or need to reduce innings. I just don’t believe that going from starter to reliever (purely in terms of ability, not preparation) is too much to ask. So he can BP for a late week or two in the season. Don’t think they will jettison Gallo, and I said something about him changing game outcomes earlier in the spring, so sticking with that. Does change the dynamic of this team to supplant Balazovic, Sands, Winder with Ryan, Funderburk, Varland. Also big speed with Martin, Buxton?, Taylor, Castro. Suddenly this team tough 1-9 with solid starters and a bench of defense, speed and potential power. Teams have won with worse (my new mantra!).
  19. South Dakota Tom
    The calculus is whether Gray can bring back more than: a) a solid shot at the playoffs in 2023, and he'd pitch playoff game(s) for us; and b) a pretty reasonable draft pick next year; and c) the perception that the team isn't tanking on its fans. That is a hard offer to top.
  20. South Dakota Tom
    I see Pittsburgh taking Crews, then Washington taking Skenes. Clark is the helium pick at 3; then we're down to Langford or Jenkins, and 4 won't let Langford slide any lower. I think this is the pick we get, unless we have eyes on something other than pba.
  21. South Dakota Tom
    It’s going to be a Gray May Day in LA today. Hoping for a series win!
  22. South Dakota Tom
    One of the great things about baseball is how human it is. Players, umps, all make mistakes, and that is part of the game. We can all recall situations in which a team will (forever) claim "we was robbed!" because of a close call on a ball/strike or safe/out decision. I like that frailty, that lack of certainty. Bad calls can fire up a team, change the momentum of the game, get the crowd engaged. Imperfect, sure, but aren't we all? Isn't that life?
  23. South Dakota Tom
    Should they be worried about burning options on any of them? They should expect Winder to come up at some point and don’t the others have them all remaining?
  24. South Dakota Tom
    You have to start with the 40-man slots, so Headrick and Winder. That 13th pitcher slot is valuable, but I don't want to expose anyone to waivers to use it if we don't have to.
  25. South Dakota Tom
    My favorite Karnak - Johnny/Karnak says “Catch 22” and tears open the envelope to reveal the question: “What would the Dodgers do if you hit them 100 fly balls?” (Must have been their down years)….
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